Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Apprehension Ahead of Fed

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Computer longs, Retail longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is slightly negative today as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are rising and volume is below average. The Bear Stearns High Yield Index and JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index both continue to rebound, rising 0.4% and 0.5% respectively the last five days. In this morning's mortgage applications report, the 30-year average fixed-rate mortgage rate came in at 6.25%, down from 6.42% the prior week. This is down 49 basis points from mid-June and down 32 basis points from the peak of the credit market turmoil in mid-August. As well, the average fixed-rate jumbo mortgage rate is falling 15 basis points today to 7.18%. This is the largest single-day drop since Feb. 7 and the lowest this rate has been since Aug. 14. This is a large positive, especially considering how many said last month that most mortgage rates would just keep climbing. So far this year, “growth” stocks continue to substantially outpace “value” stocks. Here is a summary year-to-date performance summary:

  • Russell 1000 Growth Index, +8.3%;
  • Russell 1000 Value Index, +2.4%;
  • Russell Midcap Growth Index, +8.9%;
  • Russell Midcap Value Index, +1.3%;
  • Russell 2000 Growth Index, +5.2%;
  • Russell 2000 Value Index, -5.3%.
I continue to believe that the growth stock outperformance trend is just in its early stages. While I don't believe that the U.S. economy is heading for recession, modestly below-trend growth is likely over the intermediate term, notwithstanding Fed rate cuts. Low interest rates, combined with below-trend growth, are conducive to growth stock investing. While the major averages are flat today, many leading growth stocks are again posting substantial gains. As I said last month, that is what makes timing the market so tricky. Most growth stock investors I know are at their highs for the year in performance, while the major averages are well off highs. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on rising apprehension ahead of many market-moving events over the coming days.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The US economy may avoid recession as it slows following the decline in US sub-prime mortgages, said Simon Johnson, chief economist of the IMF.
- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told more than a dozen mortgage lenders that the Bush administration wants them to give sub-prime borrowers a chance to keep their homes.
- Old Lane LP, the hedge-fund firm acquired two months ago by Citigroup Inc.(C), lost 5.9% in August, quadruple the industry’s average decline, as bond and emerging markets fell.
- The US Senate adopted a measure that would grant non-profit housing organizations $100 million to curb foreclosures linked to sub-prime lending.
- Fannie Mae(FNM), the largest source of money for US home loans, helped sub-prime borrowers avoid default on $6 billion in mortgages since April by backing refinancings, CEO Daniel Mudd said.
- Crude oil rose to a record $80/bbl. in New York after refiners slashed production more than analysts had estimated and oil inventories fell from decade highs.
- Sun Micro(JAVA) will start selling server computers with Microsoft’s(MSFT) Windows, the world’s most popular operating system, after holding out for more than a decade.
- Rambus Inc.(RMBS) shares surged to a seven-week high and option trading jumped on speculation Sun Micro(JAVA), the world’s third-largest maker of server computers, may purchase the company.
- General Cable(BGC), the biggest US maker of cable for energy and communications companies, agreed to buy Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold’s wire unit for $735 million to gain clients in Latin American and Asia.
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) rose to the highest in a week in Nasdaq Stock Market trading after UBS Investment Bank boosted earnings estimates for the maker of the iPhone, saying last week’s price cut will drive sales.

- Amgen Inc.(AMGN) rose to the highest in six weeks on the Nasdaq after two analysts recommended buying shares of the world’s largest biotech company because of a favorable decision on dosing guidelines for its anemia drugs.
- Life expectancy for children born in the US rose to a record in 2005, the latest year for which data are available, while the death rate fell to a new low, according to a report from the National Center for Health Statistics.
- The US dollar is falling versus the euro as investors increase bets the Fed will reduce its target interest rate, narrowing the gap between the US and Europe.
- Mortgage applications in the US rose 5.5% last week, reflecting gains in both purchases and refinancing.
- The IEA, an adviser to 26 industrialized nations, cut its forecast for global oil demand growth next year on concern rising credit costs may crimp economic growth.

Wall Street Journal:
- Enhanced Index Funds Come Up Short. Returns Were Supposed To Exceed Benchmarks With Relatively Little Risk.
- Amazon.com(AMZN) is hoping to gain attention among entrepreneurs for its Web services by offering a contest that includes an investment offers as part of the prize.
- In a novel move to lure bank deposits, Capital One Financial(COF) is introducing a money-market account this week that offers rewards points based on customers’ average monthly balances.

- General Motors(GM) hopes for family of electric vehicles.
- Lenders Push Mortgages With Discounts and Credits For Energy-Efficient Upgrades.

NY Times:
- Katie Couric’s “Evening News” on CBS Corp. reached a new record low in ratings last week, a year after the anchor made her on-air debut, citing Nielsen Media Research figures.

Forbes.com:
- Internet ad spending soared 17.7% during first half of this year, while overall ad spending fell .3%.

NY Post:
- NYC residents own their homes at about half the rate for households in the rest of the US, citing a US Census Bureau report.

Financial Times:
- The SEC set up four “working groups” to tighten its enforcement process and to expedite prosecution of fraud cases, citing Linda Chatman Thomsen, the SEC’s enforcement director, and other officials. One group, created in January, concentrates on pursuing potential wrongdoing associated with the crisis in the subprime mortgage market. The other three groups focus on hedge funds and insider trading, stock options backdating, and municipal bond sales.

Efe:
- Telefonica SA is in talks with Apple Inc.(AAPL) to sell the iPhone in Spain, citing Telefonica Chairman Cesar Alierta.

AFP:
- Iraq expects the number of US troops deployed in the country to fall below 90,000 by 2009, citing an official.

Economic Releases

- None of note

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Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Lehman Brothers Holdings(LEH) CEO Richard Fuld considers the current debt market rout less than half as severe as the turmoil in 1998, according to a report by UBS AG.
- Russia tested the world’s most powerful air-delivered vacuum bomb that generates a shockwave similar to a nuclear blast, the armed forces said, as the country moves to reassert its global military power.
- Australian consumer confidence rose in September after the central bank left interest rates unchanged and the employers hired more workers than expected last month.
- London has overtaken Tokyo as the most expensive city in the world for dining out, with a meal now costing more than twice as much as in NYC, according to Tim Zagat, whose guide to London restaurants is published today.

MarketWatch.com:
- China’s product safety agency has agreed to immediately start work on eliminating lead paint from toys shipped to the US, government officials said Tuesday.
- Don’t overreact. Commentary: Markets learned lessons from the 9/11 terrorist attacks, too.

NY Times:
- Technology investors and entrepreneurs, long obsessed with connecting to teenagers and 20-somethings, are starting a host of new social networking sites aimed at baby boomers and graying computer users.

CNNMoney.com:
- Car companies show off new Euro models and ‘green’ concept cars. Some could be for sale here soon.

ABCNews.com:
- Despite six years of promises, US officials say Saudi Arabia continues to look the other way at wealthy individuals identified as sending millions of dollars to al Qaeda.

Financial Times:
- Goldman Sachs(GS) is seeking to cash in on demand for alternative research by helping investors gain access to companies that provide niche information, such as data gleaned from “deep mining” the internet.

Reuters:
- The Manhattan office market in August was its strongest since before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, despite the upheaval in the credit markets, according to a report by real estate services company Colliers ABR.

Commercial Times:
- AU Optronics’(AUO) profit will exceed $1.2 billion this year on better-than-expected demand for liquid-crystal displays used in televisions.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (ISIL), target $40.

CSFB:
- Upgraded (ASML) to Outperform.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.20%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AZPN)/.22
- (BRC)/.56
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- (JOSB)/.42

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- (FMC) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:30 am EST

- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil drawdown of -2,700,000 barrels versus a -3,972,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to fall by -500,000 barrels versus a -1,481,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by 2,000,000 barrels versus a 2,256,000 barrel increase the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall -.10% versus a 1.82% increase the prior week.

Other Potential Market Movers
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (TMA) mid-quarter update, (KMT) analyst meeting, (ILMN) analyst day, (XRAY) analyst meeting, (BDK) analyst meeting, Lehman Brothers Financial Services Conference, BMO E&P/Oil Services Tour and CFSB Technology Summit could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by automaker and industrial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.