Stocks Falling Into Final Hour on U.S. Jobs Report, Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Rising Financial Sector Pessimism, Emerging Markets Inflation Fears

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 34.03 +6.98%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 72.0 -12.2%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.48 +39.62%
  
• NYSE Arms 3.10 +40.96%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 122.0 +6.1%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 234.09 +8.71%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 307.0 +1.0%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 281.08 +5.32%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.0 unch.
  
• TED Spread 32.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +1 bp[
  
• Yield Curve 180.0 -16 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $180.80/Metric Tonne +.22%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -57.70 -9.6 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04% unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -151 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -36 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my Retail, Tech and Biotech sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is very bearish, as the S&P 500 trades meaningfully lower to session lows on rising Eurozone debt angst, more financial sector pessimism, poor US economic data, more shorting, profit-taking, emerging markets inflation fears, global growth worries and technical selling. On the positive side, Telecom shares are holding up relatively well, falling less than -1.0%. Oil is down -2.6% and Lumber is gaining +1.82%. On the negative side, Defense, Alt Energy, Oil Service, Steel, Computer, Disk Drive, Networking, Bank, I-Banking, Hospital, Construction, Homebuilding, Gaming, Education and Road & Rail shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than -3.5%. Small-caps and cyclicals are substantially underperforming again. (XLF) has traded very poorly throughout the day. The 10-year yield is falling too much again, declining -13 bps to 2.0%. Gold is rising +2.9%, the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is up +.52% and Copper is down -1.02%. Rice is making another new multi-year high today, gaining -1.45%, and has risen +36.0% in about 8 weeks. The average US price for a gallon of gas is +.02/gallon today to $3.65/gallon. It is up .51/gallon in about 7 months. The China sovereign cds is gaining +3.9% to 113.60 bps, the Russia sovereign cds is gaining +3.54% to 193.67 bps, the Brazil sovereign cds is jumping +7.28% to 153.08 bps, the Greece sovereign cds is gaining +2.12% to 2,340.13 bps, the Germany sovereign cds is rising +2.7% to 78.04 bps, the France sovereign cds is rising +4.56% to 170.84 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is gaining +4.14% to 391.19 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is jumping +3.18% to 396.51 bps and the Portugal sovereign cds is gaining +1.93% to 975.37 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is rising 2.84% to 256.26 bps. Moreover, the European Investment Grade CDS Index is rising +5.88% to 146.65 bps. The Italy sovereign cds is making a new closing record high today. The Eurozone Financial Sector CDS Index is back near its all-time high. The Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index has plunged -108.4 points in about 3 weeks to -102.30. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is still near its recent record high, gaining today despite equity losses. The ongoing breakdown in the yield curve, to March 09 levels, is also a large negative. The Shanghai Composite continues to trade poorly, falling another -1.1% overnight, and is down -3.21% for the week and -9.96% ytd. Ukraine shares plunged another -6.97% today and are now down -33.43% ytd. Germany's DAX also continues to trade very poorly as it fell another -3.4% today and is now down -19.9% ytd. As well, the euro currency remains heavy. Gauges of eurozone debt angst are back near their recent highs overall, which is a large concern. Today's sharp equity decline was a bit too orderly and several key gauges of investor angst were relatively subdued. A full test of the recent lows is an increasing possibility over the coming weeks. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on rising Eurozone debt angst, rising financial sector pessimism, global growth worries, emerging markets inflation fears, more shorting, profit-taking and technical selling.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value (-3.51%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Banks -4.62% 2) Steel -4.60% 3) Homebuilders -4.31%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• DB, LQDT, CIEN, RAIL, WPPGY, KAMN, CHFC, NFLX, SCVL, CPLA, CVV, FSLR, ECOL, PERY, ICFI, GGAL, FSTER, CTCM, PSMT, PRGO, CSGS, RPM, HRB and ESL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SVM 2) GNK 3) ALU 4) XLY 5) MON
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) XLF 2) KBE 3) BHI 4) PBR 5) AIG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth (-1.70%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.29% 2) Telecom -.51% 3) Airlines -.50%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NG, EXK, FNSR, REGN, PAAS and GOLD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SYMC 2) SPLS 3) HCA 4) FNSR 5) ABC
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LQDT 2) BCSI 3) EDMC 4) ODFL 5) SCCO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
  

Friday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.50% to -.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.0 +5.0 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 144.0 +5.75 basis points.
• FTSE-100 futures -1.33%.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.60%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.55%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CPB)/.38

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for August is estimated at 68K versus 117K in July.
• The Unemployment Rate for August is estimated at 9.1% versus 9.1% in July.
• Average Hourly Earnings for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• None of note
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Financial Sector Pessimism, Global Growth Worries, Emerging Markets Inflation Fears

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  
• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 31.65 +.09%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 +3.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .99 -18.85%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.15 +61.11%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 115.31 +.48%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 219.69 +2.71%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 304.17 unch.
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 267.65 +1.42%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.0 +2 bps
  
• TED Spread 32.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 196.0 -3 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $180.40/Metric Tonne +.28%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -48.1 +5.0 points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04% +1 bp
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +61 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my Retail, Tech and Biotech sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bearish, as the S&P 500 reverses morning gains again on rising Eurozone debt angst, more financial sector pessimism, more shorting, profit-taking, emerging markets inflation fears, global growth worries and technical selling. On the positive side, Homebuilding shares are rising on the day. Lumber is gaining +1.16% and the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is falling -1.68%. On the negative side, Education, Insurance, Hospital, Biotech, I-Bank, Bank, Disk Drive, Paper, Oil Tanker, Alt Energy and Defense shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than -1.75%. Small-caps and cyclicals are substantially underperforming. (XLF) has traded poorly throughout the day. The 10-year yield is falling too much given today's data, falling -9 bps to 2.14%. Oil is rising +.14%, Gold is rising +.15% and Copper is down -1.34%. Rice is making another new multi-year high today and has risen +34.1% in about 8 weeks. The average US price for a gallon of gas is +.01/gallon today to $3.63/gallon. It is up .49/gallon in about 7 months. The Greece sovereign cds is gaining +1.44% to 2,293.70 bps, the France sovereign cds is rising +5.83% to 163.17 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is gaining +4.95% to 375.25 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is jumping +6.25% to 383.07 bps, the Portugal sovereign cds is gaining +3.75% to 952.28 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is soaring +8.36% to 249.50 bps and the US sovereign cds is up +2.43% to 51.37 bps. The Eurozone Financial Sector CDS Index is still near it recent all-time high. The Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index has plunged -108.9 points in about 3 weeks to -102.80. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is still near its recent record high, which is also a large negative. The 3-Month Euro Basis Swap is gapping -10.15 bps down today and is back near its recent low at -89.78 bps. The Shanghai Composite did not participate in the Asian equity rally for the 4th consecutive day overnight and is down -8.97% ytd. Germany's DAX also continues to trade poorly as it fell another -.94% today and is now down -17.5% ytd. As well, the euro currency remains heavy despite equity trader optimism over developments in the region. Brazil's interest rate cut last night will very likely prove a large mistake as their inflation expectations are getting to very problematic levels. The AAII % Bulls jumped to 38.62 this week, while the % Bears fell to 32.3%, which is another negative given the backdrop. Gauges of eurozone debt angst are bubbling higher again, which is a large concern. The set-up for traders into tomorrow's likely weaker-than-expected jobs report is not ideal. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on rising Eurozone debt angst, rising financial sector pessimism, global growth worries, emerging markets inflation fears, more shorting, profit-taking and technical selling.