S&P 500 1,081.71 +.22%
NASDAQ 1,795.25 +70%
Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +2.42%
Networking +2.20%
Homebuilders +1.95%
Lagging Sectors
Commodity -.64%
Energy -2.30%
Oil Service -2.48%
Other
Crude Oil 46.20 -.13%
Natural Gas 5.39 +.22%
Gold 406.40 -.07%
Base Metals 110.81 -.80%
U.S. Dollar 88.06 +.11%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.19% -1.68%
VIX 17.02 -3.13%
Put/Call .93 +10.71%
NYSE Arms .87 +135.14%
After-hours Movers
NTAP +6.96% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q outlook.
PLAB +4.24% after beating 3Q estimates.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AVP, CLX and PG.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today, boosted by positive economic data and strong earnings reports. After the close, the Chinese government will invest $16.9 billion through 2020 in alternative energy sources, including wind and solar power, Nikkei English News said. Mexico's economy grew 3.9% in the second quarter, the faster pace since the global economy began plunging into recession in 2000, on resurgent demand from the U.S. for the country's electronics, oil and metals, Bloomberg reported. Applied Materials, the world's biggest maker of semiconductor-equipment, reported its largest quarterly profit in almost 4 years after chipmakers doubled purchases of its machines, Bloomberg said. Network Appliance, whose products store and distribute data for customers including the Vatican and Coca-Cola, said first-quarter net income jumped 73% as software sales surged, Bloomberg reported. Google said its IPO is being delayed for SEC approval of its paperwork, the AP reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today as my homebuilding, retail and semi longs all rose and my steel and Chinese ADR shorts were mixed. I did not trade in the afternoon and the Portfolio is still 75% net long. An interesting shift took place today with respect to investor psychology. Oil rose to another record and the major U.S. indices rallied. As well, interest rates and commodity-related stocks fell. The market seems to be saying that inflation is not nearly the problem the bears and media made it out to be and that oil is approaching at least an intermediate-term top. A fall in oil prices back to around the mid-30's/bbl. during the next couple of months should solidify this view.
Tuesday, August 17, 2004
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,083.26 +.36%
NASDAQ 1,799.50 +.93%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.49%
Semis +2.27%
I-Banks +2.12%
Lagging Sectors
Telecom -.43%
Oil Service -1.93%
Energy -1.98%
Other
Crude Oil 46.33 +1.34%
Natural Gas 5.42 +.78%
Gold 406.40 +.30%
Base Metals 111.29 -.37%
U.S. Dollar 88.05 +.10%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.22% -.95%
VIX 16.94 -3.59%
Put/Call .93 +10.71%
NYSE Arms .77 +108.11%
Market Movers
HD +3.5% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 04 guidance.
HAL -3.5% after saying the U.S. Army will withhold 15% of payments for feeding and housing U.S. troops in Iraq.
NVEC +24.6% after announcing it has been notified by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office of the expected grant of a key MRAM patent.
WIND +18.5% after beating 2Q estimates substantially and raising 3Q/4Q guidance.
DKS+14.0% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q/4Q outlook.
*Homebuilders are up across the board on better-than-expected Housing Starts and falling interest rates.
*Energy stocks are down across the board on speculation energy prices are topping.
EL -8.3% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for July fell .1% versus estimates of a .2% rise and an increase of .3% in June.
CPI Ex Food & Energy for July rose .1% versus estimates of a .2% rise and a .1% increase in June.
Housing Starts for July were 1978K versus estimates of 1898K and an upwardly revised 1826K in June.
Building Permits for July were 2055K versus estimates of 1950K and an upwardly revised 1945K in June.
Industrial Production for July rose .4% versus estimates of a .5% increase and a downwardly revised decrease of .5% in June.
Capacity Utilization for July was 77.1% versus estimates of 77.5% and 76.9% in June.
Recommendations
CIBC rated EMR Sector Outperform, target $72. CIBC rated GE Sector Outperform, target $38. FCX rated Buy at Legg Mason, target $42. PD rated Buy at Legg Mason, target $100. FILE rated Overweight at Prudential, target $25. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BAX, KSS, IR, AMT, ETN and HD. Goldman reiterated Underperform on VRTX, AG, CNH and SGP. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on SSI, target $54.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on better-than-expected economic data and strong earnings reports. Moody's Investors Service yesterday gave the U.S. its top Aaa rating on its debt, Bloomberg reported. U.S. Homeland Security officials said they plan to begin screening airline passengers against a list of potential terror suspects, taking over the duty from the airlines, the NY Times reported. Bond investors are buying more non-conventional mortgage-backed securities, including loans to borrowers with low credit scores and home-equity loans, as interest rates rise, the Wall Street Journal reported. Thefts from luggage at airports have been increasing, in part because of a federal security requirement that all checked bags can be inspected by security screeners, the NY Times reported. New York state lawmakers have approved the first tax credit for film and tv productions in the state to counter the flight of industry jobs to Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto, the NY Times reported. OAO Yukos Oil lost its appeal to suspend an enforcement order on a $3.4 billion tax bill, Interfax reported. Shares of Motorola are rising after Reuters quoted an executive in Singapore as saying the company will have strong sales growth for the rest of the year. California Governor Schwarzenegger is preparing to sign new gambling agreements with several Indian tribes, including one that will create a casino near San Francisco, the LA Times reported. Costco is test-marketing caskets at two of its Chicago-area stores, the AP said. Staples said second-quarter earnings climbed 39%, beating analysts' estimates, Bloomberg said. RealNetworks will begin selling Internet music at half price today as it steps up efforts to draw customers from Apple Computer's iTunes site, Bloomberg reported. Home Depot said second-quarter earnings climbed 19%, beating estimates, helped by strong appliance sales and home installation services, Bloomberg said. U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly fell in July, the first decline is eight months, as shoppers paid less for gasoline, clothing and transportation, Bloomberg reported. U.S. housing starts rose more than forecast in July as builders responded to the best two months of home sales on record, Bloomberg said. Deere & Co. said third-quarter profit climbed 62% as farmers boosted spending on tractors and combines, and demand for construction and forestry machines increased, Bloomberg said. Money managers this month boosted the proportion of assets held in cash to the highest since March 2003, when a major global stock rally began, Merrill Lynch said. Fidelity increased stakes in Elan and Cisco and cut those of Motorola and Texas Instruments, Bloomberg reported. Berkshire Hathaway bought 5 million shares of Comcast in April, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day as my homebuilding, retail and semi longs are rising and my shorts are mixed. I took profits in one of my computer longs this morning and added a small long position in homebuilder OHB. I am using a $16.25 stop-loss on this position. The Portfolio is still 75% net long. The tone of the market and psychology is improving today. It appears that investors are finally paying attention to the better inflation readings I have been talking about for weeks and interest rates are dropping. As well, the sell-off in the energy stocks is a result of speculation that oil is very close to a top. A rotation from this sector into interest-rates sensitive groups, such as homebuilders, is currently underway. It is also positive that the Arms and Put/Call readings are rising. I am a bit concerned about the market's reception of Google's IPO and this could pressure the tech sector again short-term. As well, terrorism worries will likely take front stage again early next week ahead of the Republican convention.
NASDAQ 1,799.50 +.93%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.49%
Semis +2.27%
I-Banks +2.12%
Lagging Sectors
Telecom -.43%
Oil Service -1.93%
Energy -1.98%
Other
Crude Oil 46.33 +1.34%
Natural Gas 5.42 +.78%
Gold 406.40 +.30%
Base Metals 111.29 -.37%
U.S. Dollar 88.05 +.10%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.22% -.95%
VIX 16.94 -3.59%
Put/Call .93 +10.71%
NYSE Arms .77 +108.11%
Market Movers
HD +3.5% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 04 guidance.
HAL -3.5% after saying the U.S. Army will withhold 15% of payments for feeding and housing U.S. troops in Iraq.
NVEC +24.6% after announcing it has been notified by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office of the expected grant of a key MRAM patent.
WIND +18.5% after beating 2Q estimates substantially and raising 3Q/4Q guidance.
DKS+14.0% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q/4Q outlook.
*Homebuilders are up across the board on better-than-expected Housing Starts and falling interest rates.
*Energy stocks are down across the board on speculation energy prices are topping.
EL -8.3% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for July fell .1% versus estimates of a .2% rise and an increase of .3% in June.
CPI Ex Food & Energy for July rose .1% versus estimates of a .2% rise and a .1% increase in June.
Housing Starts for July were 1978K versus estimates of 1898K and an upwardly revised 1826K in June.
Building Permits for July were 2055K versus estimates of 1950K and an upwardly revised 1945K in June.
Industrial Production for July rose .4% versus estimates of a .5% increase and a downwardly revised decrease of .5% in June.
Capacity Utilization for July was 77.1% versus estimates of 77.5% and 76.9% in June.
Recommendations
CIBC rated EMR Sector Outperform, target $72. CIBC rated GE Sector Outperform, target $38. FCX rated Buy at Legg Mason, target $42. PD rated Buy at Legg Mason, target $100. FILE rated Overweight at Prudential, target $25. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on BAX, KSS, IR, AMT, ETN and HD. Goldman reiterated Underperform on VRTX, AG, CNH and SGP. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on SSI, target $54.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on better-than-expected economic data and strong earnings reports. Moody's Investors Service yesterday gave the U.S. its top Aaa rating on its debt, Bloomberg reported. U.S. Homeland Security officials said they plan to begin screening airline passengers against a list of potential terror suspects, taking over the duty from the airlines, the NY Times reported. Bond investors are buying more non-conventional mortgage-backed securities, including loans to borrowers with low credit scores and home-equity loans, as interest rates rise, the Wall Street Journal reported. Thefts from luggage at airports have been increasing, in part because of a federal security requirement that all checked bags can be inspected by security screeners, the NY Times reported. New York state lawmakers have approved the first tax credit for film and tv productions in the state to counter the flight of industry jobs to Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto, the NY Times reported. OAO Yukos Oil lost its appeal to suspend an enforcement order on a $3.4 billion tax bill, Interfax reported. Shares of Motorola are rising after Reuters quoted an executive in Singapore as saying the company will have strong sales growth for the rest of the year. California Governor Schwarzenegger is preparing to sign new gambling agreements with several Indian tribes, including one that will create a casino near San Francisco, the LA Times reported. Costco is test-marketing caskets at two of its Chicago-area stores, the AP said. Staples said second-quarter earnings climbed 39%, beating analysts' estimates, Bloomberg said. RealNetworks will begin selling Internet music at half price today as it steps up efforts to draw customers from Apple Computer's iTunes site, Bloomberg reported. Home Depot said second-quarter earnings climbed 19%, beating estimates, helped by strong appliance sales and home installation services, Bloomberg said. U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly fell in July, the first decline is eight months, as shoppers paid less for gasoline, clothing and transportation, Bloomberg reported. U.S. housing starts rose more than forecast in July as builders responded to the best two months of home sales on record, Bloomberg said. Deere & Co. said third-quarter profit climbed 62% as farmers boosted spending on tractors and combines, and demand for construction and forestry machines increased, Bloomberg said. Money managers this month boosted the proportion of assets held in cash to the highest since March 2003, when a major global stock rally began, Merrill Lynch said. Fidelity increased stakes in Elan and Cisco and cut those of Motorola and Texas Instruments, Bloomberg reported. Berkshire Hathaway bought 5 million shares of Comcast in April, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day as my homebuilding, retail and semi longs are rising and my shorts are mixed. I took profits in one of my computer longs this morning and added a small long position in homebuilder OHB. I am using a $16.25 stop-loss on this position. The Portfolio is still 75% net long. The tone of the market and psychology is improving today. It appears that investors are finally paying attention to the better inflation readings I have been talking about for weeks and interest rates are dropping. As well, the sell-off in the energy stocks is a result of speculation that oil is very close to a top. A rotation from this sector into interest-rates sensitive groups, such as homebuilders, is currently underway. It is also positive that the Arms and Put/Call readings are rising. I am a bit concerned about the market's reception of Google's IPO and this could pressure the tech sector again short-term. As well, terrorism worries will likely take front stage again early next week ahead of the Republican convention.
Tuesday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AMAT/.25
BJ/.37
BGP/.06
HD/.64
EL/.32
DKS/.33
DE/1.50
JCP/.23
TJX/.24
SPLS/.22
SKS/-.12
WIND/-.02
Splits
RNT 3-for-2
WIRE 3-for-2
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for July estimated +.2% versus +.3% in June.
CPI Ex Food & Energy for July estimated +.2% versus +.1% in June.
Housing Starts for July estimated at 1895K versus 1802K in June.
Building Permits for July estimated at 1950K versus 1945K in June.
Industrial Production for July estimated +.5% versus -.3% in June.
Capacity Utilization for July estimated at 77.5% versus 77.2% in June.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on SGP. Goldman reiterated Outperform on BAX.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are quietly higher on a decline in energy prices and a rally in U.S. shares. OAO Yukos Oil, Russia's biggest oil exporter, posted a first-half loss of $2.7 billion, compared with a profit of $1.3 billion for the same period in 2003, the Financial Times reported. A crackdown by Pakistani security forces on Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network is forcing members of the group to flee the country, Agence France-Presse said. Microsoft may sign a three-year deal with the U.K. government that offers enhanced services and support to its basic software packages, the Financial Times reported. Former employees of MediaOne that hold AT&T Wireless stock options may sue Cingular for forcing them to exercise the options when Cingular completes its acquisition of AT&T Wireless, USA Today reported. China bank may raise interest rates as early as Oct. 1 as the government switches to market forces from administrative measures to cool the economy, the Securities Daily said. President Bush and Senator Kerry should concentrate on fighting terrorism if they want to help the U.S. economy, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey of its members.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.09%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher on better-than-expected economic data and better earnings reports. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
AMAT/.25
BJ/.37
BGP/.06
HD/.64
EL/.32
DKS/.33
DE/1.50
JCP/.23
TJX/.24
SPLS/.22
SKS/-.12
WIND/-.02
Splits
RNT 3-for-2
WIRE 3-for-2
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index for July estimated +.2% versus +.3% in June.
CPI Ex Food & Energy for July estimated +.2% versus +.1% in June.
Housing Starts for July estimated at 1895K versus 1802K in June.
Building Permits for July estimated at 1950K versus 1945K in June.
Industrial Production for July estimated +.5% versus -.3% in June.
Capacity Utilization for July estimated at 77.5% versus 77.2% in June.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on SGP. Goldman reiterated Outperform on BAX.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are quietly higher on a decline in energy prices and a rally in U.S. shares. OAO Yukos Oil, Russia's biggest oil exporter, posted a first-half loss of $2.7 billion, compared with a profit of $1.3 billion for the same period in 2003, the Financial Times reported. A crackdown by Pakistani security forces on Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network is forcing members of the group to flee the country, Agence France-Presse said. Microsoft may sign a three-year deal with the U.K. government that offers enhanced services and support to its basic software packages, the Financial Times reported. Former employees of MediaOne that hold AT&T Wireless stock options may sue Cingular for forcing them to exercise the options when Cingular completes its acquisition of AT&T Wireless, USA Today reported. China bank may raise interest rates as early as Oct. 1 as the government switches to market forces from administrative measures to cool the economy, the Securities Daily said. President Bush and Senator Kerry should concentrate on fighting terrorism if they want to help the U.S. economy, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey of its members.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.09%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher on better-than-expected economic data and better earnings reports. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into tomorrow.
Monday, August 16, 2004
Monday Close
S&P 500 1,079.34 +1.37%
NASDAQ 1,782.84 +1.46%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +5.56%
I-Banks +3.33%
Biotech +3.15%
Lagging Sectors
Hospitals +.33%
Foods +.23%
Restaurants +.18%
Other
Crude Oil 45.53 -.35%
Natural Gas 5.38 +.13%
Gold 404.90 -.07%
Base Metals 111.70 +.57%
U.S. Dollar 87.96 +.07%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.26% +.78%
VIX 17.57 -2.28%
Put/Call .84 -20.0%
NYSE Arms .37 -69.17%
After-hours Movers
PIR +5.85% after it was reported that Berkshire Hathaway held 8 million shares of its stock.
MANT +15.04% after beating 2Q sales estimates and raising 3Q outlook.
AMT -5.41% after announcing it is seeking to raise $300 million through an institutional placement of convertible notes.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on KO and KRB.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today as the Venezuelan political situation calmed, opening Olympic ceremonies went smoothly and energy prices fell. After the close, Krispy Kreme Doughnuts COO John Tate will resign, the Wall Street Journal reported. Google asked the SEC to declare its IPO effective tomorrow at 4 p.m., CNBC reported. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Republican Pat Roberts said he would introduce a bill this week to create the position of U.S. intelligence director as three former heads of the CIA endorsed the idea, Bloomberg reported. The Bush administration informed the European Union it wants to scrap a 12-year-old agreement that let EU members subsidize Airbus SAS, the world's biggest plan manufacturer, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today and I covered a few of my Russian ADR shorts in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. Today's market action appeared to be the result of oversold technical conditions and short covering. However, a better-than-expected CPI reading, a continuing drop in energy prices and better earnings reports could spur further gains.
NASDAQ 1,782.84 +1.46%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +5.56%
I-Banks +3.33%
Biotech +3.15%
Lagging Sectors
Hospitals +.33%
Foods +.23%
Restaurants +.18%
Other
Crude Oil 45.53 -.35%
Natural Gas 5.38 +.13%
Gold 404.90 -.07%
Base Metals 111.70 +.57%
U.S. Dollar 87.96 +.07%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.26% +.78%
VIX 17.57 -2.28%
Put/Call .84 -20.0%
NYSE Arms .37 -69.17%
After-hours Movers
PIR +5.85% after it was reported that Berkshire Hathaway held 8 million shares of its stock.
MANT +15.04% after beating 2Q sales estimates and raising 3Q outlook.
AMT -5.41% after announcing it is seeking to raise $300 million through an institutional placement of convertible notes.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on KO and KRB.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today as the Venezuelan political situation calmed, opening Olympic ceremonies went smoothly and energy prices fell. After the close, Krispy Kreme Doughnuts COO John Tate will resign, the Wall Street Journal reported. Google asked the SEC to declare its IPO effective tomorrow at 4 p.m., CNBC reported. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Republican Pat Roberts said he would introduce a bill this week to create the position of U.S. intelligence director as three former heads of the CIA endorsed the idea, Bloomberg reported. The Bush administration informed the European Union it wants to scrap a 12-year-old agreement that let EU members subsidize Airbus SAS, the world's biggest plan manufacturer, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today and I covered a few of my Russian ADR shorts in the afternoon, leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. Today's market action appeared to be the result of oversold technical conditions and short covering. However, a better-than-expected CPI reading, a continuing drop in energy prices and better earnings reports could spur further gains.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,076.38 +1.12%
NASDAQ 1,780.74 +1.34%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +4.60%
Biotech +2.70%
I-Banks +2.68%
Lagging Sectors
Restaurants +.42%
Hospitals +.14%
Foods -.29%
Other
Crude Oil 45.90 -.28%
Natural Gas 5.43 -1.95%
Gold 404.50 +.82%
Base Metals 112.48 +1.27%
U.S. Dollar 88.07 +.19%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.28% +1.24%
VIX 17.77 -1.17%
Put/Call .87 -17.14%
NYSE Arms .40 -66.67%
Market Movers
PRV +39.2% after saying LPNT agreed to buy it for $1.13 billion in cash and stock, LPNT -17.3%.
KMRT +13.8% on better-than-expected 2Q results.
LOW +6.1% after missing 2Q estimates and raising 3Q outlook.
SYY -7.8% after missing 4Q estimates and BB&T downgrade to Hold.
Economic Data
Empire Manufacturing for August came in at 12.57 versus estimates of 32.30 and a reading of 35.75 in July.
Recommendations
BRL rated Buy at Bank of America, target $46. JTX rated Buy at Bank of America, target $21. BLT rated Overweight at JP Morgan. BRO raised to Overweight at JP Morgan, target $50. EL raised to Buy at Oppenheimer, target $51. IPXL rated Buy at Bank of America, target $17. LPNT cut to Underweight at JP Morgan. Goldman Sachs raised KSS to Outperform. Goldman reiterated Outperform on AET, AMGN, KRB, FS, IGT. Goldman rated HEP Outperform. Citi SmithBarney downgraded LF to Sell, target $17. Citi upgraded DOW to Buy, target $46. Citi upgraded LYO to Buy, target $21. Citi reiterated Buy on NCX, target $30.37. Citi reiterated Buy on HAS, target $24. Citi upgraded MAT to Buy, target $21. Citi reiterated Buy on HCA, target $48. Citi reiterated Buy on SBUX, target $54.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on short-covering and bargain-hunting after recent weakness. Micrel Inc., a Silicon Valley semiconductor maker, denied accusations of improper conduct made by an IRS auditor, the NY Times said. Gateway Inc. said CompUSA will begin selling its desktop computers this week, Bloomberg said. Panasonic and other high-definition tv makers are hoping the Olympics gives consumers a reason to try digital TV, the LA Times reported. Lowe's said second-quarter earnings rose 18%, helped by new stores in metro areas and record U.S. home sales, Bloomberg reported. Venezuelan President Chavez overcame a referendum to remove him from office two years before his term expires, Bloomberg said. Crude oil futures fell after Chavez's victory eased concerns that shipments from the country would be disrupted, Bloomberg said. The first two days of full competition in Athens were marked by near-empty stadiums in many sports, Bloomberg reported. International investors purchased a net $71.8 billion of U.S. Treasuries, stocks, corporate bonds and other securities in June, up from $65.2 billion in May, Bloomberg reported. The $53 billion U.S. missile defense shield being developed by Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman may be derailed by a John Kerry presidency, Bloomberg said. Bank of America and Wachovia are among the banks doing business in Florida that stand to benefit from a rise in deposits and loans following Hurricane Charley, Bloomberg reported. Goldman Sachs economists call higher oil prices "excuses" in explaining the deceleration in U.S. consumer spending this year as the real culprit is the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus from the economy, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day as strength in my retail and internet longs is offsetting losses in my steel and Russian ADR shorts. I added a few technology longs this morning, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 50% net long. One of my new longs is CYMI and I am using a stop-loss of $24.30 on the position. The tone of the market is better today, but it appears to be mostly short-covering and a lack of sellers. However, the rally could gain legs on a further drop in energy prices and better earnings reports over the next couple of days. The odds of a major terrorist attack this year are diminishing with each passing day.
NASDAQ 1,780.74 +1.34%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +4.60%
Biotech +2.70%
I-Banks +2.68%
Lagging Sectors
Restaurants +.42%
Hospitals +.14%
Foods -.29%
Other
Crude Oil 45.90 -.28%
Natural Gas 5.43 -1.95%
Gold 404.50 +.82%
Base Metals 112.48 +1.27%
U.S. Dollar 88.07 +.19%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.28% +1.24%
VIX 17.77 -1.17%
Put/Call .87 -17.14%
NYSE Arms .40 -66.67%
Market Movers
PRV +39.2% after saying LPNT agreed to buy it for $1.13 billion in cash and stock, LPNT -17.3%.
KMRT +13.8% on better-than-expected 2Q results.
LOW +6.1% after missing 2Q estimates and raising 3Q outlook.
SYY -7.8% after missing 4Q estimates and BB&T downgrade to Hold.
Economic Data
Empire Manufacturing for August came in at 12.57 versus estimates of 32.30 and a reading of 35.75 in July.
Recommendations
BRL rated Buy at Bank of America, target $46. JTX rated Buy at Bank of America, target $21. BLT rated Overweight at JP Morgan. BRO raised to Overweight at JP Morgan, target $50. EL raised to Buy at Oppenheimer, target $51. IPXL rated Buy at Bank of America, target $17. LPNT cut to Underweight at JP Morgan. Goldman Sachs raised KSS to Outperform. Goldman reiterated Outperform on AET, AMGN, KRB, FS, IGT. Goldman rated HEP Outperform. Citi SmithBarney downgraded LF to Sell, target $17. Citi upgraded DOW to Buy, target $46. Citi upgraded LYO to Buy, target $21. Citi reiterated Buy on NCX, target $30.37. Citi reiterated Buy on HAS, target $24. Citi upgraded MAT to Buy, target $21. Citi reiterated Buy on HCA, target $48. Citi reiterated Buy on SBUX, target $54.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are higher mid-day on short-covering and bargain-hunting after recent weakness. Micrel Inc., a Silicon Valley semiconductor maker, denied accusations of improper conduct made by an IRS auditor, the NY Times said. Gateway Inc. said CompUSA will begin selling its desktop computers this week, Bloomberg said. Panasonic and other high-definition tv makers are hoping the Olympics gives consumers a reason to try digital TV, the LA Times reported. Lowe's said second-quarter earnings rose 18%, helped by new stores in metro areas and record U.S. home sales, Bloomberg reported. Venezuelan President Chavez overcame a referendum to remove him from office two years before his term expires, Bloomberg said. Crude oil futures fell after Chavez's victory eased concerns that shipments from the country would be disrupted, Bloomberg said. The first two days of full competition in Athens were marked by near-empty stadiums in many sports, Bloomberg reported. International investors purchased a net $71.8 billion of U.S. Treasuries, stocks, corporate bonds and other securities in June, up from $65.2 billion in May, Bloomberg reported. The $53 billion U.S. missile defense shield being developed by Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman may be derailed by a John Kerry presidency, Bloomberg said. Bank of America and Wachovia are among the banks doing business in Florida that stand to benefit from a rise in deposits and loans following Hurricane Charley, Bloomberg reported. Goldman Sachs economists call higher oil prices "excuses" in explaining the deceleration in U.S. consumer spending this year as the real culprit is the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus from the economy, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day as strength in my retail and internet longs is offsetting losses in my steel and Russian ADR shorts. I added a few technology longs this morning, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 50% net long. One of my new longs is CYMI and I am using a stop-loss of $24.30 on the position. The tone of the market is better today, but it appears to be mostly short-covering and a lack of sellers. However, the rally could gain legs on a further drop in energy prices and better earnings reports over the next couple of days. The odds of a major terrorist attack this year are diminishing with each passing day.
Monday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CEN/.19
KMRT/.14
LBTYA/-.24
LOW/.90
SYY/.45
Splits
QCOM 2-for-1
Economic Data
Empire Manufacturing for August estimated at 32.3 versus 36.54 in July.
NAHB Housing Market Index for August estimated at 66 versus 67 in July.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's had positive comments on TWX, EMC, EK and negative comments on HPQ. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MRVL, EBAY and ALL. Bloomberg has a positive column by Caroline Baum on the exaggerated death of the U.S. consumer.
Weekend News
China sold 15.8 million cell phones in the second quarter, down 23 percent from a year earlier, Shanghai Daily said. The U.S. bipartisan Commission for Presidential Debates named the moderators for four events it will hold in late September and early October, the NY Times reported. The commission said Jim Lehrer of PBS, Bob Schieffer of CBS and Charles Gibson of ABC will each moderate one of the three presidential debates. PBS's Gwen Ifill will moderate the vice-presidential debate. Al-Qaeda is regrouping in Pakistan and planning attacks in the U.S. with a "motley collection of old hands and recent recruits," the Washington Post reported. President Bush on Monday will announce plans to transfer 70,000 to 100,000 troops from Europe and Asia as the U.S. military shifts its focus to the war on terrorism from the cold war, the Washington Post said. OAO Yukos Oil Co.'s share price is being manipulated by senior Kremlin officials for their own benefit, the Business newspaper reported. Iraq's Prime Minister Ayad Allawi ordered troops from the country's newly formed army to lead an attack against Shiite Muslim militia in Najaf, the Washington Post reported. Lawyers for Golan Cipel, the Israeli who was given $110,000-a-year job by New Jersey Democratic Governor James McGreevey, said Cibel is heterosexual and didn't consent to any intimate contact with McGreevey, the NY Times said. New Jersey residents' approval of Governor McGreevey actually rose 2% to 45% after a recent flurry of scandalous allegations, according to the Star-Ledger. OAO Yukos Oil may "very likely" file for bankruptcy in the next few days unless Russia eases the pressure it's been applying, the Financial Times said. Posco's record earnings may not last until the first half of next year as the Korean steelmaker faces a number of threats such as higher oil prices, the Seoul Economic Daily reported. U.S. gas prices fell about 4.9 cents in the past three weeks, the AP reported, citing the Lundberg Survey of about 8,000 gas stations. Electronic Arts may be interested in buying U.K. publisher Eidos Plc as part of its European expansion, the Financial Times reported. Caterpillar workers rejected a six-year contract proposal, the AP reported. Allstate Corp., State Farm Mutual and other insurers may lose about $5 billion from Hurricane Charley, less than initially forecast, Bloomberg said. A weakened Hurricane Charley, the most powerful storm to hit the U.S. in 12 years, left Florida with deaths and damage estimated in the billions of dollars as it headed for the South Carolina coast this morning, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil prices may fall to $30/bbl. next year as concerns about supply disruptions in Iraq, Russia and Venezuela ease and OPEC boosts output, the group's President said. China will provide low-interest loans to cable companies to convert 100 million urban households to digital television by 2008, Bloomberg said. Crude oil futures in New York rose to a record on concern violence may spread in Venezuela, the fourth-largest exporter to the U.S., as the nation votes in a referendum that could remove President Chavez from office, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are lower, -1.0% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.26%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.27%.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly lower in the morning on worries over Venezuelan political unrest and terrorism fears. However, equities will likely rally higher by day's end on short-covering and bargain-hunting. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
CEN/.19
KMRT/.14
LBTYA/-.24
LOW/.90
SYY/.45
Splits
QCOM 2-for-1
Economic Data
Empire Manufacturing for August estimated at 32.3 versus 36.54 in July.
NAHB Housing Market Index for August estimated at 66 versus 67 in July.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's had positive comments on TWX, EMC, EK and negative comments on HPQ. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MRVL, EBAY and ALL. Bloomberg has a positive column by Caroline Baum on the exaggerated death of the U.S. consumer.
Weekend News
China sold 15.8 million cell phones in the second quarter, down 23 percent from a year earlier, Shanghai Daily said. The U.S. bipartisan Commission for Presidential Debates named the moderators for four events it will hold in late September and early October, the NY Times reported. The commission said Jim Lehrer of PBS, Bob Schieffer of CBS and Charles Gibson of ABC will each moderate one of the three presidential debates. PBS's Gwen Ifill will moderate the vice-presidential debate. Al-Qaeda is regrouping in Pakistan and planning attacks in the U.S. with a "motley collection of old hands and recent recruits," the Washington Post reported. President Bush on Monday will announce plans to transfer 70,000 to 100,000 troops from Europe and Asia as the U.S. military shifts its focus to the war on terrorism from the cold war, the Washington Post said. OAO Yukos Oil Co.'s share price is being manipulated by senior Kremlin officials for their own benefit, the Business newspaper reported. Iraq's Prime Minister Ayad Allawi ordered troops from the country's newly formed army to lead an attack against Shiite Muslim militia in Najaf, the Washington Post reported. Lawyers for Golan Cipel, the Israeli who was given $110,000-a-year job by New Jersey Democratic Governor James McGreevey, said Cibel is heterosexual and didn't consent to any intimate contact with McGreevey, the NY Times said. New Jersey residents' approval of Governor McGreevey actually rose 2% to 45% after a recent flurry of scandalous allegations, according to the Star-Ledger. OAO Yukos Oil may "very likely" file for bankruptcy in the next few days unless Russia eases the pressure it's been applying, the Financial Times said. Posco's record earnings may not last until the first half of next year as the Korean steelmaker faces a number of threats such as higher oil prices, the Seoul Economic Daily reported. U.S. gas prices fell about 4.9 cents in the past three weeks, the AP reported, citing the Lundberg Survey of about 8,000 gas stations. Electronic Arts may be interested in buying U.K. publisher Eidos Plc as part of its European expansion, the Financial Times reported. Caterpillar workers rejected a six-year contract proposal, the AP reported. Allstate Corp., State Farm Mutual and other insurers may lose about $5 billion from Hurricane Charley, less than initially forecast, Bloomberg said. A weakened Hurricane Charley, the most powerful storm to hit the U.S. in 12 years, left Florida with deaths and damage estimated in the billions of dollars as it headed for the South Carolina coast this morning, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil prices may fall to $30/bbl. next year as concerns about supply disruptions in Iraq, Russia and Venezuela ease and OPEC boosts output, the group's President said. China will provide low-interest loans to cable companies to convert 100 million urban households to digital television by 2008, Bloomberg said. Crude oil futures in New York rose to a record on concern violence may spread in Venezuela, the fourth-largest exporter to the U.S., as the nation votes in a referendum that could remove President Chavez from office, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are lower, -1.0% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.26%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.27%.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly lower in the morning on worries over Venezuelan political unrest and terrorism fears. However, equities will likely rally higher by day's end on short-covering and bargain-hunting. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into tomorrow.
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