Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Existing Home Sales Fall Slightly, Consumer Confidence Rises

- Existing Home Sales for May fell to 6.67M versus estimates of 6.6M and 6.75M in April.
- Consumer Confidence for June rose to 105.7 versus estimates of 103.8 and 104.7 in May.
BOTTOM LINE: Sales of previously owned homes in the US fell in May to the lowest since January as higher mortgage rates sapped demand, Bloomberg said. The supply of homes for sale is now up to May 1997 levels. The median price of an existing home rose 6% in May from a year earlier to $230,000. Sales fell 4.2% in the Northeast and 3.8% in the Midwest. They rose .4% in the South and rose .7% in the West. This is more evidence of a “soft-landing” in housing.

Confidence among US consumers rose more than forecast in June as Americans’ outlook for the job market improved, Bloomberg said. The expectations component of the index rose to 87.6 from 85.1 the prior month. The employment component of the index rose to 15.6%, the highest since August. 3% of consumers said they plan to buy a home, up from 2.9% the prior month. I continue to expect consumer confidence to make new cycle highs over the intermediate-term as stocks rise, energy prices fall, irrational pessimism lifts further, Iraq improves, the job market remains healthy, long-term rates remain low by historic standards and inflation decelerates.

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Monday, June 26, 2006

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- General Motors(GM) persuaded about 35,000 US union workers to retire, a move aimed at helping return the company’s financial health.
- Merrill Lynch(MER), Morgan Stanley(MS) and Lehman Brothers(LEH), three of the world’s biggest securities firms, sued Theflyonthewall.com Web site, claiming it “pirated” their equity research.
- Take-Two(TTWO) said it received requests from the NY District Attorney for documents related to statements about earnings and hidden sex scenes in its “Grand Theft Auto” video game.
- Seven present and former pro football players sued the NFL and the NFL Players Assoc., saying the organizations recommended unfit financial advisers and caused them to lose $20 million.
- South Korea’s government said it will take “measures” against North Korea in the event the country tests a long-range missile, as President Bush told North Korea to refrain from such a “provocative” act.
- Japan will start receiving its first shipments from the $13 billion Sakhalin-1 oil and natural gas project this year, helping the world’s second-largest economy ease dependence on imports from the Middle East.

Financial Times:
- A US proposal to tighten restrictions on exports of technology products to China is expected to draw criticism from Beijing and protests from US industry groups.

Security Times:
- China should raise interest rates further to curb lending, citing Chen Dongqi, deputy director of the Academy of Macroeconomic Research, a government-affiliated body.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.10%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (FLS)/.49
- (FRE)/1.21
- (FUL)/.69
- (NKE)/1.40

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Existing Home Sales for May are estimated to fall to 6.6M versus 6.76M in April.
- Consumer Confidence for June is estimated to rise to 103.8 versus a reading of 103.2 in May.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish at Session Highs on Light Volume ahead of Fed Hike

Indices
S&P 500 1,250.56 +.49%
DJIA 11,045.28 +.51%
NASDAQ 2,133.67 +.58%
Russell 2000 698.64 +1.23%
Wilshire 5000 12,580.73 +.54%
S&P Barra Growth 578.82 +.35%
S&P Barra Value 670.0 +.62%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 603.61 +.42%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 809.61 +.37%
Morgan Stanley Technology 487.04 +.14%
Transports 4,772.36 -.01%
Utilities 407.99 +.45%
Put/Call .74 -25.25%
NYSE Arms .75 +.79%
Volatility(VIX) 15.61 -1.76%
ISE Sentiment 208.00 +55.22%
US Dollar 86.52 -.41%
CRB 337.37 +.70%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 71.64 -.22%
Unleaded Gasoline 217.88 +2.41%
Natural Gas 5.98 +.34%
Heating Oil 197.50 -.20%
Gold 587.90 +.03%
Base Metals 207.99 +3.55%
Copper 322.15 -.36%
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.23% +.28%

Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +1.80%
Gold & Silver +1.12%
Energy +1.11%

Lagging Sectors
Airlines -.52%
Gaming -.60%
Disk Drives -.64%

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Afternoon Recommendations
Banc of America:
- Rated (COST) Buy, target $63.

Piper Jaffray:
- Rated (OPTN) Outperform, target $14.

Lehman Brothers:
- Upgraded IT Consulting & Computer Services Sector to Positive.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US Treasury 10-year notes fell a ninth consecutive day as the prospect of a 17th straight interest-rate hike by the Fed this week prompted investors to demand higher returns.
- US stocks rose as companies’ plans for $88 billion in takeovers outweighed concern that the Fed will hike rates further.
- Natural gas fell to the lowest closing price in a month in NY as moderate temperatures limited demand for the power-plant fuel.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Semi longs, Retail longs and Biotech longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors rose and volume was very light. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly bullish. A substantial amount of market uncertainty revolves around housing and inflation. We had one very positive data point on housing today and we get another one tomorrow. Personal incomes and spending are released Friday, which are related to the housing slowdown. At this point, most expect the Fed to raise 25 basis points and make hawkish statements in their ensuing policy statement. While I am very certain that a 25 basis-point hike is in the offing, I am not as certain of the tone of the policy statement. I wouldn't be surprised to see more dovish statements than most expect. Finally, the PCE Core, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, is released on Friday. Bottom line, the market hates uncertainty and some very key releases are on tap this week. The lifting of this uncertainty, combined with depressed investor sentiment and substantial losses in many stocks this quarter will likely lead to short profit-taking and long bargain-hunting on Thursday and Friday. Thus, I expect stocks to finish the week on a positive note.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour, Led by Homebuilders

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Retail longs, Internet longs and Semi longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is light. The latest data from the NYSE show short interest as a percentage of total share outstanding is 2.4%. This is back to an all-time record high and corresponds with other data showing excessive levels of pessimism. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain hunting ahead of a number of important releases.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The world is winning the war on drugs, according to a United Nations report that said opium production might soon be eradicated in Asia’s notorious “Golden Triangle” and coca cultivation in the Andean region of South American has decreased 25% since 2000.
- Shares of Inco Ltd.(N) and Falconbridge Ltd. rose after reports that Phelps Dodge(PD) will acquire the Canadian nickel miners for $40 billion in cash and stock.
- The US Supreme Court agreed to consider a bid by environmentalists and 12 states to force the Environmental Protection Agency to regulate car and truck emissions that may contribute to possible global warming.
- Shares of Zimmer Holdings(ZMH) and Biomet(BMET) fell after the two markers of artificial joints disclosed the US Dept. of Justice is investigating the $7 billion-a-year orthopedics industry.

Wall Street Journal:
- A report detailing the US Army’s recovery of at least 500 weapons of mass destruction in Iraq starting in 2003 should have been disclosed to the public earlier, Senator Rick Santorum and Representative Peter Hoekstra said. The National Group Intelligence Center agreed to declassify six “key points” of a report on the chemical weapons recovery in Iraq, information requested for nine weeks before getting a response.
- Germany’s DaimlerChrysler AG will introduce its small, two-door Smart car in the US next year, as it tries to make a profit on the brand.
- The SEC will this summer issue guidance on how to interpret a rule allowing investment managers to use client money to pay for brokerage and research services.
- A number of brokers at Piper Jaffray, which is selling its brokerage unit to concentrate on investment banking, have left for rival companies.
- Zale Corp.(ZLC), which started the mass-market jewelry business in the 1920s, has pulled back from a disastrous foray to attract upscale customers.
- US companies involved in veterinary care have done pretty well in good times and bad, since people are usually generous in looking after the health of their pets.
- Private equity firms Bain Capital is the lead contender to acquire Jones Apparel Group(JNY).

NY Post:
- Hedge fund traders are betting that the Fed will put additional rate increases on hold after adding two more of a quarter of a percentage point each on Thursday and on Aug. 8.

Washington Post:
- Iridium Satellite LLC, a provider of satellite telephone services, will provide emergency telecommunications equipment for hospital owner MedStar Health.
- Helio LLC, maker of a phone that can text message instantly to Korea, is targeting Korean-American customers.

NY Times:
- State tax revenue in Louisiana, which was battered by hurricanes Katrina and Rita last fall, is on track to set a record of $9.2 billion before the fiscal year ends June 30.

Women’s Wear Daily:
- Federated Dept. Stores(FD) is considering buyout offers for its bridal division, Saks Inc.(SKS) has received interest for its Parisian chain, and Foot Locker(FL) has been approached by private-equity firms.

Reuters:
- Sirius Satellite Radio(SIRI) CEO Karmazin said he would be interested in buying rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings(XMSR) if the price were right.

Moscow Times:
- The US and Russia will probably reach final agreement next month on Russia’s bid to join the World Trade Organization.

Panorama:
- Petroleos de Venezuela SA, South America’s largest oil company, is in talks with its partners in four heavy oil joint ventures to double output.