Indices
S&P 500 1,295.09 -.55%
DJIA 11,284.05 -.86%
NASDAQ 2,140.29 -1.09%
Russell 2000 699.24 -1.75%
Wilshire 5000 12,920.88 -.72%
S&P Barra Growth 600.45 -.42%
S&P Barra Value 692.71 -.68%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 631.65 -.06%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 788.16 -1.62%
Morgan Stanley Technology 495.07 -1.52%
Transports 4,239.51 -3.35%
Utilities 439.35 +.26%
MSCI Emerging Markets 96.06 -2.34%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 6,554.0 -6.0%
Bloomberg Oil % Bulls 35.3 +2.91%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 183,323 -7.0%
Put/Call .81 -10.99%
NYSE Arms 1.16 +38.09%
Volatility(VIX) 12.31 +5.76%
ISE Sentiment 151.00 +96.10%
AAII % Bulls 39.35 +28.89%
AAII % Bears 37.42 +4.55%
US Dollar 85.38 +.34%
CRB 336.26 +1.19%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 135.20 unch.
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 72.51 +.75%
Unleaded Gasoline 189.51 -3.31%
Natural Gas 7.16 +5.19%
Heating Oil 202.98 +1.92%
Gold 631.60 -.77%
Base Metals 230.58 +1.47%
Copper 342.95 -1.59%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.78% -1.24%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.48% -.61%
Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +3.99%
Energy +1.23%
Oil Service +1.20%
REITs +.81%
HMOs +.56%
Lagging Sectors
Steel -2.90%
Restaurants -3.10%
Gaming -3.13%
I-Banks -3.92%
Retail -5.16%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
Friday, August 25, 2006
Stocks Mixed into Final Hour on Low Volume
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is about even into the final hour as gains in my Networking longs offset losses in my Commodity shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is neutral as the advance/decline line is about even, sector performance is mixed and volume is very light. Ben Bernanke's silence on monetary policy this morning implies the market has it right, in my opinion. I continue to believe there is virtually zero chance of a rate hike at the Sept. meeting and little chance of another hike this year. The 10-year continues to maintain recent strong gains. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain hunting and lower long-term rates.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Robert Rubin, the former US Treasury secretary who is chairman of Citigroup’s(C) executive committee, resigned as a director at Ford Motor(F) to avoid conflicts as the automaker considers options that would involve investment banks, including asset sales.
- Crude oil is rising slightly on speculation that a tropical depression heading for the Gulf of Mexico may become a storm strong enough to threaten oil platforms and refineries.
Wall Street Journal:
- Moody’s Investors Service will probably publish its first credit rating for a hedge fund in the next few weeks.
- US wine sales are growing as merchants turn to the Internet and retailers including Costco(COST) press for changes to ease the dominance of the industry’s powerful middlemen.
NY Times:
- The growth of hedge funds has fueled an increase in the number of private investigators specializing in probing such investment instruments.
NY Post:
- A test version of a scanner that can detect a so-called dirty bomb has been installed at the NY Container Terminal to inspect as many as 6,000 containers of overseas goods that pass through the site daily.
Philadelphia Inquirer:
- Philadelphia finished fiscal 2006 with a larger-than-expected $202 million surplus.
AP:
- The two top US generals in the Middle East said security efforts in Baghdad were helping reduce violence.
USA Today:
- At least 10 states, including New Jersey, Florida and Idaho, have or plan to cut property tax rates because of the sharp rise in home prices over the last few years.
Financial Times:
- US IPOs are at their lowest level in three years.
Daily Telegraph:
- 53% of Britons said Islam poses a threat in some degree to “western liberal democracy,” citing a YouGov poll.
- Robert Rubin, the former US Treasury secretary who is chairman of Citigroup’s(C) executive committee, resigned as a director at Ford Motor(F) to avoid conflicts as the automaker considers options that would involve investment banks, including asset sales.
- Crude oil is rising slightly on speculation that a tropical depression heading for the Gulf of Mexico may become a storm strong enough to threaten oil platforms and refineries.
Wall Street Journal:
- Moody’s Investors Service will probably publish its first credit rating for a hedge fund in the next few weeks.
- US wine sales are growing as merchants turn to the Internet and retailers including Costco(COST) press for changes to ease the dominance of the industry’s powerful middlemen.
NY Times:
- The growth of hedge funds has fueled an increase in the number of private investigators specializing in probing such investment instruments.
NY Post:
- A test version of a scanner that can detect a so-called dirty bomb has been installed at the NY Container Terminal to inspect as many as 6,000 containers of overseas goods that pass through the site daily.
Philadelphia Inquirer:
- Philadelphia finished fiscal 2006 with a larger-than-expected $202 million surplus.
AP:
- The two top US generals in the Middle East said security efforts in Baghdad were helping reduce violence.
USA Today:
- At least 10 states, including New Jersey, Florida and Idaho, have or plan to cut property tax rates because of the sharp rise in home prices over the last few years.
Financial Times:
- US IPOs are at their lowest level in three years.
Daily Telegraph:
- 53% of Britons said Islam poses a threat in some degree to “western liberal democracy,” citing a YouGov poll.
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US economy will dodge recession, said Harvard Professor Martin Feldstein, who heads the panel of economists which dates US business cycles.
- Germans are beginning to awaken to a new reality: Their country is no longer one of the apparently safe havens in the post-Sept. 11 world. Under then-Chancellor Schroeder, Germany refused to join the US-led liberation of Iraq in 2003 and had been spared the sort of fear engendered by attacks carried out by Islamic terrorists in London, Madrid, Istanbul and Mumbai. Now the public is confronted with stepped-up security checks at train stations and travel delays as suspicious suitcases are cleared away, with the promis of more measures to come.
- Japan’s consumer prices rose less than expected in July, damping speculation the central bank will raise rates for a second time this year.
Wall Street Journal:
- Toyota Motor(TM), which last year recalled more vehicles in the US than it sold, may curb growth plans to address quality issues.
Financial Times:
- Alcatel’s(ALA) planned $10.4 billion acquisition of Lucent Technologies(LU) has the support of Institutional Shareholder Services, the US shareholder advisory firm.
AFP:
- Four Muslims between the ages of 16 and 20 have been charged in Denmark in connection with a plot to carry out terrorist attacks in Europe.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Business Week:
- SuperGen Inc.(SUPG), which makes treatments for tumors and blood disorders, may increase as much as sevenfold within a year on sales of the bone marrow drug Dacogen.
- Brink’s(BCO) largest shareholder, Pirate Capital, demanded Aug. 9 that the company be put up for sale, saying the stock is worth as much as $80 a share.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.20%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.22%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- (CAJ) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
- None of note
Bloomberg:
- The US economy will dodge recession, said Harvard Professor Martin Feldstein, who heads the panel of economists which dates US business cycles.
- Germans are beginning to awaken to a new reality: Their country is no longer one of the apparently safe havens in the post-Sept. 11 world. Under then-Chancellor Schroeder, Germany refused to join the US-led liberation of Iraq in 2003 and had been spared the sort of fear engendered by attacks carried out by Islamic terrorists in London, Madrid, Istanbul and Mumbai. Now the public is confronted with stepped-up security checks at train stations and travel delays as suspicious suitcases are cleared away, with the promis of more measures to come.
- Japan’s consumer prices rose less than expected in July, damping speculation the central bank will raise rates for a second time this year.
Wall Street Journal:
- Toyota Motor(TM), which last year recalled more vehicles in the US than it sold, may curb growth plans to address quality issues.
Financial Times:
- Alcatel’s(ALA) planned $10.4 billion acquisition of Lucent Technologies(LU) has the support of Institutional Shareholder Services, the US shareholder advisory firm.
AFP:
- Four Muslims between the ages of 16 and 20 have been charged in Denmark in connection with a plot to carry out terrorist attacks in Europe.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Business Week:
- SuperGen Inc.(SUPG), which makes treatments for tumors and blood disorders, may increase as much as sevenfold within a year on sales of the bone marrow drug Dacogen.
- Brink’s(BCO) largest shareholder, Pirate Capital, demanded Aug. 9 that the company be put up for sale, saying the stock is worth as much as $80 a share.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.20%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.22%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- (CAJ) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
- None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
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