Indices
S&P 500 1,314.78 -.39%
DJIA 11,508.10 -.46%
NASDAQ 2,218.93 -.74%
Russell 2000 718.63 -1.47%
Wilshire 5000 13,118.54 -.57%
S&P Barra Growth 610.59 -.59%
S&P Barra Value 702.10 -.18%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 647.99 -.43%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 801.91 -1.70%
Morgan Stanley Technology 519.31 -.51%
Transports 4,327.43 -1.73%
Utilities 422.74 -.75%
MSCI Emerging Markets 94.76 -2.13%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 7,196 -5.0%
Bloomberg Oil % Bulls 27.91 +31.6%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 161,535 -9.0%
Put/Call .90 +11.11%
NYSE Arms 1.06 -8.62%
Volatility(VIX) 12.59 +7.06%
ISE Sentiment 130.0 +85.71%
AAII % Bulls 47.75 -.42%
AAII % Bears 34.23 -10.77%
US Dollar 85.16 -.95%
CRB 300.86 -2.02%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 135.60 -.66%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.55 -5.66%
Unleaded Gasoline 147.12 -6.89%
Natural Gas 4.63 -7.64%
Heating Oil 164.72 -3.73%
Gold 595.20 +.34%
Base Metals 232.13 +4.22%
Copper 344.00 +.73%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.59% -4.18%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.40% -.47%
Leading Sectors
Telecom +2.46%
Software +1.74%
Wireless +1.40%
Airlines +1.21%
Networking +.73%
Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -2.39%
Semis -3.09%
Coal -3.13%
HMOs -3.42%
Alternative Energy -5.52%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
Friday, September 22, 2006
Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Growth Worries and Profit-taking
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Semi longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are falling and volume is light. The Amaranth hedge fund conference call just ended. It said that its multi-strategy funds are down 55% for the year and that it lost $560 million on Sept. 14 on the plunge in natural gas. Amaranth considered the energy market moves in September as highly remote. The hedge fund plans to remain in business but will no longer trade energy. I think many other funds will come to this same conclusion over the coming months, further pressuring most commodity prices. The CRB Index is approaching bear market territory, falling 18% from May highs. I also continue to believe the mania for emerging market stocks is in the initial stages of ending, as well. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, declining interest rates and bargain hunting.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Natural gas is falling for the fourth day this week in NY on soaring supplies of the furnace ad power-plant fuel.
- Crude oil fell close to a six-month low on signs the standoff with Iran over its nuclear program may be nearing a resolution.
- President Bush and Pakistani President Musharraf said they are cooperating in the hunt for Osama bin Laden and dismissed reports about a rift in tactics.
- US Treasuries are rising again, extending the benchmark 10-year note’s biggest weekly gain in 17 months.
- Tribune(TRB), publisher of the LA Times and the Chicago Tribune, agreed to consider a sale of the company or some of its assets after the shares slumped.
Wall Street Journal:
- The UK Financial Services Authority will require hedge funds starting in November to disclose significant preferential deals made with investors.
- The SEC has been urged by lobby groups to do more to counter the threat of companies who trade in so-called naked short-selling by introducing new regulations.
- AT&T’s(T) $67 billion purchase of BellSouth(BLS) will be approved by the FCC.
NY Times:
- Wealthy Chinese parents are taking their children to golf lessons, expensive etiquette classes and music instruction to prepare them for elite status in the country.
- Viacom’s MTV Networks plans to buy Harmonix Music Systems, a creator of music-based video games, for $175 million, citing MTV President Christina Norman.
NY Post:
- Amazon.com(AMZN) and TiVo Inc.(TIVO) are in talks over an arrangement to download films to TiVo set-top boxes.
Financial Times:
- Man Group Plc CEO Stanley Fink said he would welcome regulation and registration for the hedge-fund industry that would put it on the same level as mutual funds.
- Natural gas is falling for the fourth day this week in NY on soaring supplies of the furnace ad power-plant fuel.
- Crude oil fell close to a six-month low on signs the standoff with Iran over its nuclear program may be nearing a resolution.
- President Bush and Pakistani President Musharraf said they are cooperating in the hunt for Osama bin Laden and dismissed reports about a rift in tactics.
- US Treasuries are rising again, extending the benchmark 10-year note’s biggest weekly gain in 17 months.
- Tribune(TRB), publisher of the LA Times and the Chicago Tribune, agreed to consider a sale of the company or some of its assets after the shares slumped.
Wall Street Journal:
- The UK Financial Services Authority will require hedge funds starting in November to disclose significant preferential deals made with investors.
- The SEC has been urged by lobby groups to do more to counter the threat of companies who trade in so-called naked short-selling by introducing new regulations.
- AT&T’s(T) $67 billion purchase of BellSouth(BLS) will be approved by the FCC.
NY Times:
- Wealthy Chinese parents are taking their children to golf lessons, expensive etiquette classes and music instruction to prepare them for elite status in the country.
- Viacom’s MTV Networks plans to buy Harmonix Music Systems, a creator of music-based video games, for $175 million, citing MTV President Christina Norman.
NY Post:
- Amazon.com(AMZN) and TiVo Inc.(TIVO) are in talks over an arrangement to download films to TiVo set-top boxes.
Financial Times:
- Man Group Plc CEO Stanley Fink said he would welcome regulation and registration for the hedge-fund industry that would put it on the same level as mutual funds.
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Oil may fall for a fifth week amid rising US fuel inventories and speculation that losses on natural gas bets at Amaranth Advisors LLC will trigger selling of energy futures by other funds, a Bloomberg survey showed.
- Yagi Strengthened into a Supertyphoon, or Category 5 storm, with winds of 161 miles per hour, as it moved on a path US forecasters said will take it near Tokyo within 48 hours.
- Palestinian Authority President Abbas said a new national unity government he is forming will recognize Israel and renounce violence, key elements needed to get international aid flowing to the Gaza Strip and West Bank.
- China and Russia, both leading players in the effort to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program, didn’t attend a US-hosted meeting on the issue, US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said.
- The 400 richest people in the US are all billionaires for the first time ever this year, according to Forbes Magazine’s annual list.
- Texas Instruments(TXN) said its board authorized the repurchase of an additional $5 billion of its common stock to boost returns for investors.
- Nike(NKE) said first-quarter profit fell 13% on stock-option expenses and higher marketing costs. The shares jumped as sales and orders rose more than analysts estimated.
- Palm(PALM) said first-quarter profit fell 9.2% as the company spent more to develop products and battled competitors. The shares rose after Palm announced a stock buyback.
China Business News:
- Iron ore prices will drop in the long term because of increasing global production capacity of the steel-making ingredient, citing Charles “Chip” Goodyear, the CEO of BHP Billiton(BHP).
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (NKE), target $104.
- PBM stocks oversold on Wal-mart(WMT) generic price cut.
Business Week:
- Schering-Plough Corp.(SGP) could be acquired or may consider merging with a rival pharmaceutical company, citing Catherine Arnold, an analyst with Credit Suisse.
- Newell Rubbermaid(NWL) shares will grow after increased spending on research and development, new products and advertising helped the company beat analysts’ earnings forecasts in the past two quarters, citing Lee Schultheis, investment chief at Alpha Hedged Strategies Fund.
- Drugmaker Cleveland BioLabs(CBLI) is expected to benefit from its partnership with Cleveland Clinic Foundation, famous for treating heart ailments and cancer, citing Cynthia Ekberg Tsai, general partner at Madelin Fund.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -% to -.% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
- None of note
Bloomberg:
- Oil may fall for a fifth week amid rising US fuel inventories and speculation that losses on natural gas bets at Amaranth Advisors LLC will trigger selling of energy futures by other funds, a Bloomberg survey showed.
- Yagi Strengthened into a Supertyphoon, or Category 5 storm, with winds of 161 miles per hour, as it moved on a path US forecasters said will take it near Tokyo within 48 hours.
- Palestinian Authority President Abbas said a new national unity government he is forming will recognize Israel and renounce violence, key elements needed to get international aid flowing to the Gaza Strip and West Bank.
- China and Russia, both leading players in the effort to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program, didn’t attend a US-hosted meeting on the issue, US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said.
- The 400 richest people in the US are all billionaires for the first time ever this year, according to Forbes Magazine’s annual list.
- Texas Instruments(TXN) said its board authorized the repurchase of an additional $5 billion of its common stock to boost returns for investors.
- Nike(NKE) said first-quarter profit fell 13% on stock-option expenses and higher marketing costs. The shares jumped as sales and orders rose more than analysts estimated.
- Palm(PALM) said first-quarter profit fell 9.2% as the company spent more to develop products and battled competitors. The shares rose after Palm announced a stock buyback.
China Business News:
- Iron ore prices will drop in the long term because of increasing global production capacity of the steel-making ingredient, citing Charles “Chip” Goodyear, the CEO of BHP Billiton(BHP).
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (NKE), target $104.
- PBM stocks oversold on Wal-mart(WMT) generic price cut.
Business Week:
- Schering-Plough Corp.(SGP) could be acquired or may consider merging with a rival pharmaceutical company, citing Catherine Arnold, an analyst with Credit Suisse.
- Newell Rubbermaid(NWL) shares will grow after increased spending on research and development, new products and advertising helped the company beat analysts’ earnings forecasts in the past two quarters, citing Lee Schultheis, investment chief at Alpha Hedged Strategies Fund.
- Drugmaker Cleveland BioLabs(CBLI) is expected to benefit from its partnership with Cleveland Clinic Foundation, famous for treating heart ailments and cancer, citing Cynthia Ekberg Tsai, general partner at Madelin Fund.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -% to -.% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Economic Releases
- None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and automaker shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)