Stocks Finish Sharply Higher on Buyouts and Short-covering Ahead of Election

Indices
S&P 500 1,379.78 +1.13%
DJIA 12,105.55 +1.0%
NASDAQ 2,365.95 +1.51%
Russell 2000 763.08 +1.37%
Wilshire 5000 13,807.14 +1.16%
S&P Barra Growth 641.01 +1.16%
S&P Barra Value 736.55 +1.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 671.68 +.90%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 855.07 +1.22%
Morgan Stanley Technology 554.91 +1.61%
Transports 4,694.96 +1.78%
Utilities 443.36 -.54%
Put/Call .75 -16.67%
NYSE Arms .63 -40.78%
Volatility(VIX) 11.16 unch.
ISE Sentiment 162.00 +38.46%
US Dollar 85.75 +.05%
CRB 311.72 +.58%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.07 +1.57%
Unleaded Gasoline 152.90 +1.47%
Natural Gas 7.44 -5.58%
Heating Oil 171.95 +2.50%
Gold 624.60 -.53%
Base Metals 244.73 -.29%
Copper 334.00 +.09%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.69% -.47%

Leading Sectors
HMOs +2.86%
Airlines +2.77%
I-Banks +2.58%

Lagging Sectors
Utilities -.54%
Oil Tankers -.85%
Gold & Silver -1.23%

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Afternoon Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated (ALO) Buy, target $30.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US gasoline at the pump fell 1.8 cents to $2.20 a gallon, the lowest in 10-months.
- Natural gas fell 5% on forecasts for mild weather amid record inventories for the commodity.
- US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the US role in Cuba must be to “insist” that Cubans “have a real opportunity for a true democracy.”
- NTP Inc., the patent-licensing firm that collected $612.5 million from Research In Motion in a patent dispute, said it’s turning its sights on Palm Inc.(PALM).
- The use of muscle-building anabolic steroids, often thought to cause impulsive and aggressive behavior, is also linked to more planned crimes involving fraud and weapons, a study has found.

Wall Street Journal:
- Nigeria is working toward boosting oil production, provided it can bring an end to attacks by militants on installations in the Niger Delta that are curbing output by about 500,000 barrels a day, citing Oil Minister Edmund Daukoru. Daily output would be 3 million barrels if not for the attacks, and may rise to 4 million in two years, Daukoru said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Medical longs, Computer longs and Biotech longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, almost every sector rose and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Today's overall market action was very bullish. Natural Gas fell 5% today, notwithstanding the bounce higher in crude. I still suspect natural gas made another meaningful top a couple of weeks ago. Natural gas speculative longs are back near record levels. The number of natural gas speculative long contracts on the Nymex has risen 272% since March. In my opinion, the current level of natural gas is mostly related to another bout of record speculation by investment funds, as inventories remain near record highs for this time of the year. Natural gas futures are now in their seasonally weak period.

Stocks Sharply Higher into Final Hour on Buyouts and Short-Covering

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Medical longs, Biotech longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is above average. Friday's healthy jobs and ISM Non-manufacturing reports were significant positives and make the imminent recession calls seem even more implausible. The Fed's Moskow said this morning that the U.S. economy will grow at a solid pace. The 10-year yield is stable after Friday's jump. Growth stocks are particularly strong today. I continue to believe that recent market action is indicative of a healthy consolidation after sharp gains and that the many bears remain stunningly complacent. Another substantial push higher in the major averages is likely over the coming weeks. The growth rate of the ECRI future inflation gauge is still falling. It declined 3.1% in the week ended Oct. 20. It had been rising at a 9% rate in October 2005. The 10-year yield is at session lows today at 4.7%. I continue to believe the Fed will not raise rates with the 10-year yield anywhere near current levels and that a cut is more likely in the first half of next year. I also still see a return to the secular trend of disinflation over the intermediate-term. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, performance anxiety, buyout speculation and diminishing economic growth concerns.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Circuit City(CC) began selling high-definition radios that pick up digital signals from more than 1,030 US radio stations.
- Growth in European service industries from banking to telecom, the biggest part of the economy, unexpectedly slowed in October.
- Pakistan President Musharraf said Mulism countries need to do more to battle terrorism and the poverty that’s making Islamic nations breeding grounds for extremists.
- Microsoft(MSFT) chairman Gates and Prince Alwaleed bin Talal plan to buy Four Seasons Hotels(FS) in an offer that values the hotelier at $3.7 billion.
- Abbott Labs(ABT) said it will buy Kos Pharmaceuticals(KOSP) for $78 a share, or 56% more than the last closing price, to add the cholesterol drugs Niaspan and Advicor.
- OSI Restaurant Partners(OSI), the owner of restaurant chain Outback Steakhouse, agreed to be acquired for $2.98 billion in cash by Bain Capital Partners LLC, Catterton Partners and three other company founders.
- Swift Transportation, the second-largest US trucking company, said founder and former CEO Moyes offered to buy the company for $29 a share.
- Natural gas prices in the US East are falling 4% as milder weather forecast throughout the Northeast is expected to damp heating demand.
- Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest state-owned oil company, cut its prices in Asia for lighter varieties of crude oil for a second month in December, while raising prices for the US.

Wall Street Journal:
- Rick Wagoner, the CEO of GM(GM), said an agreement on GM’s contribution to labor costs at components maker Delphi Corp. might be reached “reasonably soon.”
- US homeowners’ insurance premiums are falling in many parts of the country while car insurance costs are rising at less than the inflation rate, suggesting that risks for both are declining.
- US retail forecasters remain divided over what coming holiday-season sales will be like with estimates for gains from a year earlier of between 2.5% and 7.5%.
- Morgan Stanley(MS) is reorganizing its brokers’ pay packages, to improve rewards for those who have better customers and generate more money, and to cut compensation for those whose performances are sub-standard.

NY Times:
- Hollywood studios, feeling the pinch of rising budgets and rampant piracy as well as worries over the future of new media, want concessions from actors, directors and writers. Both sides are ready to fight as the studios prepare to start contract negotiations in January. The average movie budget last year increased to $96.2 million, up from $54.1 million in 1995.

LA Times:
- Wachovia Corp.(WB) plans to re-brand 120 World Savings bank branches, open another 30 to 50 outlets a year and buy smaller banks as it seeks to expand in California.

CNBC:
- Former Fed Chairman Greenspan said an economic slowdown is likely temporary and that the worst of the housing slowdown is over.

Washington Post:
- A US pullout from Iraq now would have devastating consequences, dozens of enlisted US soldiers and officers said. Such a withdrawal would invigorate the insurgency, put Iraq on a course toward civil war and create the possibility that four years of fighting for democracy has been for naught, the soldiers told the Post.

Le Monde:
- The European Union should do more to help NATO forces in Afghanistan, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Financial Times Deutschland:
- China wants to add US dollar-denominated assets to its foreign exchange reserves that offer higher yields than US government bonds.

Les Echos:
- Union for a French Democracy party leader and presidential candidate Francois Bayrou said he would cut labor taxes and on overtime hours and curb levies on wealthy people.

Khaleej Times:
- Middle Eastern young people are frustrated by high unemployment as population growth outstrips job creation.

Haaretz:
- Israeli military commanders are planning for the possibility that Syria or Hezbollah will start a war against Israel next summer.

Boerson:
- Denmark targets doubling its use of renewable energy to 30% in 12 years, lifting investment in wind energy.

Economic Releases

- None of note

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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was sentenced to death by hanging today for his role in the massacre of 148 Shiite Muslims in the northern Iraqi village of Fujail. Hussein was convicted of crimes against humanity including premeditated murder, torture and forced deportation. “This is a response to the call of thousands of sons and sisters of those executed by Saddam,” said Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. “Hussein’s rule is “an era of the past, like the era of Mussolini and Hitler,” Maliki said. Hussein is also still on trial for the “Anfal” atrocities which killed about 180,000 Kurds, mainly from the use of chemical weapons.
- OPEC is reducing output because supply exceeds demand and crude prices are falling as a result, the United Arab Emirates said.
- Kuwait will continue with its plan to invest $26 billion in expanding production capacity even after crude prices declined 20% in the third quarter, the head of the country’s state-owned oil company said.
- Oil prices between $50-$60 a barrel are “acceptable” to both producers and consumers, the Omani oil minister told reporters in Abu Dhabi.
- China will “pace itself” when filling its emergency crude oil supply tanks because global prices of the fuel are still at “high levels,” a government official said.
- The contest for control of Congress has tightened in the days leading up to the Nov. 7 vote with Democrats holding a 51% to 45% edge among likely voters, down from a 14-point margin two weeks ago, an ABC News/Washington Post poll showed.
- US Senator Robert Menendez’s lead over Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. has narrowed in the past two weeks to 3 points, within the margin of error in the latest Monmouth Univ./Gannett New Jersey poll.
- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened to cut all oil sales to the US if the results of next month’s presidential vote aren’t recognized by the US government.
- China may have excess coal production capacity in 2008, with output outstripping demand because construction of mines has accelerated, a government research center said in a forecast.
- Honda Motor expects demand for its Civic compact car to lead a 14th consecutive year of sales gains in the US next year as the company expands production of the fuel-efficient vehicles.
- Taiwan’s stocks dropped after President Chen Shui-bian’s wife was indicted for corruption and opposition rallied called for his resignation.

Wall Street Journal:
- Comcast Corp.(CMCSA) is considering developing an on-demand television service that would offer “user generated” videos.

Barron’s:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average will climb to about 12,600 by June on rallies from energy, financial and consumer stocks as investors move away from the slowing real-estate market, institutional investors said.

Investment Dealer’s Digest:
- Few industries permutate as quickly as Wall Street, and the rapid proliferation of hedge funds in recent years has sparked a large jump in the number of so-called mini-primes, prime brokers that cater to smaller hedge funds.

NY Times:
- Morgan Stanley Investment Management, which has a 7.6% stake in the NY Times, is pushing the media company to eliminate its dual-class share structure and calling for changes in governance.
- The Democratic and Republican parties are sending thousands of lawyers to various states to monitor election polling sites for potential challenges.
- MedImmune(MEDI) plans to have a version of its FluMist nasal spray to fight the illness in children from ages 1 to 5 ready for the 2007 influenza season, CEO Mott said.
- Google(GOOG) plans to start selling ads that will run in the print editions of 50 US newspapers. The move is part of Google’s(GOOG) plan to offer advertisers a single system through which they can promote products in any medium.

Financial Times:
- Wind turbines priced at $2,847 have become the top seller at Kingfisher Plc’s B&Q stores in the UK since they went on sale last month.

London-based Times:
- OPEC may have to further cut production in December due to a “soft” market, citing the organization’s President Daukoru.

Apple Daily News:
- Yahoo!(YHOO) will start selling a so-called ultra-mobile personal computer, made by Quanta Computer, in the first-half of next year.

China Securities Journal:
- China’s economy will slow next year, citing Zhu Zhixin, deputy director with the nation’s top planning agency. The government will continue to seek to curb lending growth and land sales to slow fixed-asset investments.

Interfax:
- Measures outlined in a UN resolution on Iran and its nuclear program must have a time limit and a clear mechanism for being lifted, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Finanz und Wirtschaft:
- The US Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% in the “foreseeable” future, Bill Gross, chief investment officer at PIMCO said.

Gulf News:
- The counterfeit cosmetics trade in the Persian Gulf is being used to fund international terrorism, citing a Nivea company official.

Nihon Keizai:
- Sharp Corp., the world’s largest maker of solar power panels, will next year start selling a solar power system that has a better energy conversion rate than polysilicon cells.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (POT).
- Made negative comments on (EVR).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -% to . on average.
S&P 500 indicated -%
NASDAQ 100 indicated -%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ATVI)/-.10
- (AES)/.21
- (ALTR)/.25
- (CRL)/.54
- (CXW)/.40
- (CUZ)/.14
- (EP)/.16
- (FLR)/-.11
- (MVL)/.12
- (MNT)/.24
- (NTES)/.28
- (OSIP)/-.16
- (OSTK)/-.82
- (SBAC)/-.17
- (ELOS)/.38
- (TXU)/1.95
- (XMSR)/-.46

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BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.