Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Splits within Iran’s ruling elite deepened, with police arresting family members of an ex- president and a former nuclear negotiator saying most Iranians questioned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s electoral victory. Security forces detained five relatives of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the most influential politicians in the country, state media said yesterday. Bolstering the opposition, Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, who served as nuclear negotiator until 2007, criticized the top election body for siding with Ahmadinejad and said most Iranians don’t accept the results. “There is some serious dissatisfaction within the ranks,” said Ilan Berman, an analyst with the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington. “Anytime a regime begins to eat its own, it signals significant transformation.”

- Republican John McCain, who has criticized President Barack Obama’s handling of the protests in Iran, praised Obama’s statement yesterday that the Iranian government must “stop all violent and unjust actions.” McCain told CBS’s “Face the Nation” that supporting the protesters in Iran is about the “moral leadership” the U.S. must show in the world. “I appreciate the statement that he made yesterday that was far stronger, and I think we will need to continue to send that message,” said McCain, who was defeated by Obama in last year’s presidential election. “It’s not so much about Iran, it’s about being on the right side of history.”

- The U.S. military is “fully prepared” should North Korea launch a missile toward Hawaii, President Barack Obama said in an interview to be broadcast by CBS News today. “I do want to give assurances to the American people that the T’s are crossed and the I’s are dotted in terms of what might happen,” Obama said in an interview to be aired on the “Early Show,” according to a transcript on the CBS News Web site. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on June 18 he ordered the military to take measures against a possible missile launch by North Korea in the direction of Hawaii. A long-range missile launch would be a breach of a United Nations resolution passed after North Korea tested a nuclear weapon on May 25.

- President Barack Obama may not have enough votes in the U.S. Senate to pass his effort to overhaul the nation’s health-care system, California Democrat Dianne Feinstein said. “I don’t know that he has the votes right now,” Feinstein said today on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. “I think there’s a lot of concern in the Democratic caucus.” Controlling costs of the new system is a “difficult subject.” Republican Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana said on the same program that the overhaul should be done slowly, and not this year, to ensure it doesn’t “threaten the basic structure of the economy.” As a presidential candidate he pledged to expand coverage to the 46 million people who lack health insurance while lowering the cost of a system of care that makes up 17 percent of the economy. Iowa Republican Senator Charles Grassley said on CNN that the Senate Finance Committee is “dialing down some of our expectations” of the legislation in response to an estimate by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office that earlier options under consideration would cost $1.6 trillion. “Our goal is affordability,” said Grassley, who is the top-ranked Republican on the finance panel. Senators from both parties are wary of health-care overhaul because of the $1.6 trillion cost estimate, Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said on ABC’s “This Week” program today. The budget office calculation “was a death blow to government-run health care plan,” he said. Democratic senators are “running away from the government- run health care where the bureaucrat stands between the doctor and the patient,” Graham said. The Finance Committee “has abandoned” the plan, he said.

- A proposed “cap-and-trade” law to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions would cost $22 billion a year by 2020, or $175 for every household, the Congressional Budget Office said. “Higher costs would stem from the fact that most economic activity is based on fossil fuels” that produce greenhouse gases when burned, the CBO analysis said. “In most cases, the firms required to hold the allowances would not bear that cost; rather, they would pass it onto their customers in the form of higher prices.” CBO’s analysis of the Waxman-Markey bill was released as Democrats work to resolve a dispute over the bill’s economic impact on U.S. farmers. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson of Minnesota and other Democrats from farm states want changes to the legislation, including more free allowances to non-profit utilities that serve rural parts of the country, before they will support Waxman’s plan to bring the bill to a vote in the 435-member House next week. In its analysis, CBO said the market value of the cap-and- trade allowances in 2020 would be $91.4 billion, or $28 for each permit. “The ultimate effects of the cap-and-trade program on U.S. households would depend crucially on policy makers’ decisions about how to allocate that value,” CBO said.

- George Mitchell, President Barack Obama’s envoy to the Middle East and a former Democratic Senate majority leader, told a jury he had no reason to believe bribes had been paid as part of his $200,000 investment in an oil deal. Mitchell took the witness stand yesterday in the defense of Connecticut entrepreneur Frederic Bourke, who is on trial on charges that he joined a 1998 conspiracy to bribe government leaders in Azerbaijan in a failed bid to buy the state oil company. Bourke invested $8 million and brought his friend Mitchell into the deal. Bourke says he didn’t know the architect of the deal, Viktor Kozeny, had paid bribes.

- General Motors Corp.’s planned sale drew objections from Chrysler Group LLC, the other U.S. automaker that filed for bankruptcy protection this year, as well as at least 10 states and union retirees. Attorneys general from Connecticut, Kentucky, Missouri, Nebraska, Maryland, Vermont, Minnesota, North Dakota, Ohio and West Virginia objected to the sale, saying it would circumvent state laws that protect GM dealers’ contracts and consumers with product liability claims.

- Treasuries rose, with 30-year bond yields falling the most in five weeks, as a report showing consumer prices tumbled the most in six decades eased concern efforts to revive the economy would generate inflation.

- Cotton fell, capping the biggest weekly decline in more than four months, on speculation that China, the world’s largest fiber user, will curb purchases from the U.S., the top exporter. “China’s cotton reserves are at a record,” Jeffery Lu, an analyst with Noble Group Ltd.’s cotton unit, said yesterday in a telephone interview from Shanghai. “Without new import quotas, textile mills can’t import much, even though foreign cotton is less expensive than domestic fiber.”

- Vale SA, the world’s largest iron- ore producer, said it agreed to cut contract prices for iron-ore fines for ArcelorMittal by 28 percent in 2009. Vale will also cut so-called benchmark prices from last year by more than 44 percent for lump ore and by 48 percent for pellets, the Rio de Janeiro-based company said in a filing to Brazil’s securities regulator today.

- Copper fell in New York, marking its first weekly drop since mid-May, on speculation that China, the largest user of the metal, will import less after stockpiles monitored in Shanghai rose to the highest since March 2008. Copper held in warehouses certified by the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed 13 percent this week to the highest since August 2007. China accounted for 38 percent of global copper demand in the first quarter, up from 27 percent a year earlier, Barclays Capital estimates. The metal declined on speculation that China’s State Reserve Bureau is done stockpiling copper. “The market is worried about Chinese demand,” David Wilson and Stephanie Aymes, Societe Generale analysts in London, said today in a report. The analysts said they are “bearish” on copper because of “fundamentals and sentiment.”

- More iron-ore carriers are tied up outside ports in Brazil, Australia and China than at the peak of last year’s shipping boom. That helps explain this year’s fivefold gain the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity shipping costs. It also indicates the gauge may drop should Chinese demand for the raw material, used in steel production, abate, according to Tufton Oceanic Ltd., the largest shipping hedge-fund group. “It’s a one-trick pony, it’s just about iron ore in China,” Andreas Vergottis, Tufton’s Hong Kong-based research director, said June 18. A decline can “happen at any time. It would not surprise me if it’s in one week or one month.” China’s steel production fell in April from a month earlier, while iron-ore imports in May were lower than the preceding month. About 18% of the world’s fleet of capsizes is sitting outside iron-ore ports, according to London-based shipbroker Simpson, Spence & Young Ltd. That compares with 14% about a year ago, when the Baltic Dry Index was almost three times higher.

- France’s budget deficit may widen to between 7 percent and 7.5% of gross domestic product in 2009 and “probably” the same in 2010 as the government lifts spending and the recession erodes revenue, Budget Minister Eric Woerth said.

- Japanese manufacturers became less pessimistic this quarter and demand for services rose in April amid signs the country’s worst postwar recession is easing. Sentiment was minus 13.2 points this quarter compared with minus 66 three months earlier, a joint survey by the Cabinet Office and Finance Ministry showed today. The tertiary index, a gauge of money spent on phone calls, power and transportation, climbed 2.2 percent from March, the Trade Ministry said.

- Pakistan will wage war against Taliban insurgents in the northwestern Swat Valley region until “complete victory” is achieved, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said. “We are engaged in a relentless struggle to safeguard our land from terrorists and to make it a safe haven for the people,” Gilani said yesterday as he marked the birthday of assassinated former premier Benazir Bhutto, state media reported.

Wall Street Journal:

- Irish property prices have plummeted since 2002. But a "cottage" in County Galway owned by Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd has tripled in value during the same period, according to a financial disclosure form filed by the Senator this month. There are two possible explanations for this remarkable turn of fortune. Maybe Mr. Dodd is luckier than a leprechaun. Or could it be that he paid well below the market price when he bought out a co-owner in 2002 and had undervalued the property accordingly? If it's the latter, then Mr. Dodd received a "gift," in IRS parlance, and should have declared it on his financial disclosure form that year. He did not. Oh, and by the way, the seller at that low, low price has been the business partner of a man for whom Mr. Dodd lobbied to receive a Presidential pardon.

- A home-sales revival that began last year in some of California's cheaper inland areas has begun to spread to several more expensive coastal areas, another hint that devastated real-estate markets in the state -- and other parts of the country -- may see less grim days ahead. Homes are selling briskly again in the lower end of the market in Santa Clara County, just south of San Francisco, with prospective buyers making multiple offers and bidding well above asking prices. The median sales price of a single-family home in May was $445,000 in the county, up 5.7% from February, when prices stopped dropping.

- Steve Jobs, who has been on medical leave from Apple Inc.(AAPL) since January to treat an undisclosed medical condition, received a liver transplant in Tennessee about two months ago. The chief executive has been recovering well and is expected to return to work on schedule later this month, though he may work part-time initially. When he does return, Mr. Jobs may be encouraged by his physicians to initially "work part-time for a month or two," a person familiar with the thinking at Apple said. That may lead Tim Cook, Apple's chief operating officer, to take "a more encompassing role," this person said. The person added that Mr. Cook may be appointed to Apple's board in the not-too-distant future. Recovery from a liver transplant is relatively fast, said William Chapman, a specialist at Washington University who has no direct knowledge of Mr. Jobs's case. During his leave, Mr. Jobs has remained involved in key aspects of the company and reviewed products and product plans from home. He has also been seen at Apple's headquarters, according to people who have seen him there.

- David Ellison is paid to invest in banks, but a year ago with his fears growing about falling home prices, rising unemployment and bank failures, he sold most of his investments. Today, Mr. Ellison's funds, FBR Small Cap Financial and FBR Large Cap Financial, are once again full of banks and his cash levels, which had hit 60%, are down to 10%. He believes most banks are cheap, even after recent rallies, and sees a better attitude among the now-humbled management of the major banks, which are working to rebuild their business, not jack up their own bonuses. "This is the time to take a little more risk," says Mr. Ellison, 52 years old, who launched the two funds in 1996 after a long career at Fidelity Investments. "The machinery is in place to fix the problems, and the companies all want to get better now." Banks are relatively cheap, even with the run-up in the sector's stocks. Bank of America now trades for a little more than one times tangible book value -- essentially, assets (not including goodwill) minus liabilities and preferred stock. At the end of 2007, before disaster hit, the BofA share price was at almost three times book, according to SNL Financial. With the cost of funds low and risk a dirty word, Mr. Ellison figures now is a good time for banks to make loans. "Borrowers and lenders are both being cautious."

- The bankruptcies of General Motors and Chrysler are changing the landscape of the auto industry. The two U.S. companies are shuttering plants, shedding dealers and reducing their product lines. As a result, Toyota Motor will become the largest seller of light vehicles in the U.S. It has held the top spot globally since last year. The Japanese auto maker won't be the only beneficiary of the two companies' woes. But in terms of status, market clout and bragging rights, Toyota will be the No. 1 winner. Its share of the North American light-truck and car market probably will rise to around 20% from 18.4%. GM will end up in second place with 13% to 16% -- with Ford hot on its tail. Although Toyota stock doesn't change hands directly in the U.S., the company's American depositary shares (TM), which represent them, are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. And, at a recent price of around $76 -- about $30 below their 52-week high -- they're a good bet for long-term investors.

- A growing number of big investors are concluding that stock and bond pickers failed to add any value during the market turmoil and are shifting to index funds, a move that threatens to cut profits for asset managers. "Active managers have not given us the added performance in a down market that we hoped for," says Bill Atwood, executive director of the $9 billion Illinois State Board of Investment. In a recent survey by Greenwich Associates, a Greenwich, Conn., consulting firm, about one in five institutional investors said they have recently shifted money away from active managers and into passive index strategies. That is up from just 4% who expected to make that shift when asked from July to October 2008. Thanks in large part to a growing preference for index funds, the Bank of New York Mellon Corp. unit is forecasting a record number of asset managers will be replaced in the second half of this year.

- Former General Electric Co.(GE) Chief Executive Jack Welch is putting his name and money behind a little-known educational entrepreneur, injecting some star power into the budding industry of online education. Mr. Welch is paying more than $2 million for a 12% stake in Chancellor University System LLC, which is converting formerly bankrupt Myers University in Cleveland into Chancellor University. It plans to offer most courses online. Chancellor will name its Master of Business Administration program The Jack Welch Institute.

- Two Democratic lawmakers are calling on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to relax recently tightened standards for mortgages on new condominiums, saying they could threaten the viability of some developments and slow the housing-market recovery.

- The flight of traders and bankers to smaller boutiques continued last week as a new bond-trading specialist finished a hiring binge of 50 people from larger financial firms. StormHarbour Partners LP, founded by former Citigroup Inc. bond-trading executives Antonio Cacorino and Fredrick Chapey, has hired 50 people in the last few months, including about 20 from Citigroup.

- Many hedge funds were relieved last week when the Obama administration's financial-overhaul plan included no big surprises or threats to the lucrative, secretive industry. It isn't clear exactly why hedge funds escaped their worst fears. But one factor might have helped: The hedge-fund industry has been spending a lot more time and money in Washington during the past few years. In 2008, major hedge funds and their trade groups spent $6.1 million lobbying Washington, up from $4.2 million in 2007 and nearly seven times the $897,000 average from 2003 to 2006. The growth rate in hedge-fund lobbying far exceeds the 38% increase for the overall financial-services industry between 2006 and 2008, according to figures compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics, a research group that tracks political spending. "You name a senior member of the [House] financial-services committee or the [Senate] banking committee, and I or a member of my staff have been in that office within the past six months," Mr. Baker says. The new approach was evident as the Obama administration pieced together its financial-regulation proposal. In meetings with representatives of the Federal Reserve, hedge-fund representatives said they would be less likely to participate in government programs to buy bank assets if they were subjected to extensive disclosure requirements as part of the regulatory changes, a person familiar with the discussions says. Hedge funds faced intense scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators last fall amid short-selling and swaps activity that helped drive down already battered financial stocks. Hedge-fund paychecks surpassing $1 billion last year became a lightning rod for criticism. One of the biggest hedge-fund lobbyists is Citadel Investment Group, which spent a total of $1.9 million from 2007 through the first quarter of this year, records show. The Coalition of Private Investment Companies, a group led by the famous short-seller Jim Chanos, founder of hedge fund Kynikos Associates, spent $1.1 million on lobbying in the same period. Mr. Chanos testified before Congress this year on regulatory reforms in the financial sector and attended President Obama's announcement of regulatory changes on Wednesday.

- In Washington, officials are keeping a close eye on Hawaii amid concerns that North Korea will fire a missile at the state.

- Developing countries' net private capital inflows fell 41% last year and will be cut nearly in half this year, the World Bank said in a report that offers little hope that the countries will provide the spark for the global economic engine. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Gov. Jean-Claude Trichet said Sunday that the ECB expects the global economy to moderate its slide over the remainder of the year and resume climbing in 2010. The World Bank estimated in its annual development-finance review that gross domestic product in developing countries will grow just 1.2% this year, well off the 8.1% pace in 2007 and the 5.9% gain in 2008. The report, issued at a conference in Seoul, projects a 2.9% contraction in global GDP this year, as rich countries contract by 4.5%.

MarketWatch.com:

- About 800 gathered this past week for the GAIM International hedge fund and alternative investment event in Monaco. A year ago, with 1,000 in attendance, the conference was kicking off just as markets were starting to fall apart, with the biggest slump yet to come. Of course, it should be noted that hedge funds have been blamed by many for contributing to last year's financial mess. As for the look ahead, a survey of attendees by conference organizers revealed that 65% of those polled expect the crisis to "rumble on," with just 17% saying it was over and that same amount expecting the crisis to diminish significantly.

IBD:
- In some mythologies, battles between the gods create the world as we know it. At Perfect World (PWRD), they're certainly creating profits. On Friday, Perfect World raised its second-quarter outlook, citing a friendly reception for its new online game, "Battle of the Immortals." The market responded by pushing shares to a 52-week high.

NY Times:

- In 1936, Atlanta built Techwood Homes, the nation’s first housing project. By the 1990s, a greater percentage of the city’s residents were living in housing projects — sprawling red-brick barracks that pockmarked the skyline — than in any other city in America. Now, Atlanta is nearing a very different record: becoming the first major city to knock them all down. By next June, officials here plan to demolish the city’s last remaining housing project, fulfilling a long and divisive campaign to reduce poverty by decentralizing it. Mixed-income developments oriented toward families, with trendy shops, golf courses and Y.M.C.A.’s, are emerging where bleak, uniform towers once stood. Displaced residents are receiving vouchers to move to private housing. And a landmark experiment in housing the urban poor in large government-run facilities that began under the New Deal is being undone. “We’ve realized that concentrating families in poverty is very destructive,” said Renée L. Glover, the executive director of the Atlanta Housing Authority. “It’s destructive to the families, the neighborhoods and the city.” “Atlanta’s plan signifies in a very clear way that the social contract that cities and citizens have with the poor has fundamentally changed,” said Sudhir Venkatesh, a sociologist at Columbia University who studies urban neighborhoods. “We’ve decided that the market can function to create housing and the role of government should be to move people into the market.” Some researchers and policy makers say the model is succeeding. Thomas D. Boston, an economist at the Georgia Institute of Technology who has tracked Atlanta’s housing-project residents since 1995, said those who move are more likely to find work, their children were likely to perform better in school and they report higher satisfaction with their living conditions. The housing authority says the overwhelming majority of residents support the relocations. Ms. Glover does not blame the social engineers of the 1930s for creating housing projects. Their solution worked during the New Deal, she said, but collapsed as public housing became more racially segregated and attracted drug crime. These days, Atlanta is again the vanguard in an experiment that Ms. Glover acknowledged could have unintended consequences. But her greater concern, she said, is that cities will safeguard the status quo. “For us to think that a program that was conceptualized 70 years ago is still the right answer, it makes no sense,” she said. “Today is a whole new era.”

- The central bank is holding the Fed funds rate at nearly zero and has created a mountain of bank reserves to fight the financial crisis. Yes, these moves are unusual, but these are unusual times. Concluding that the Fed is leading us into inflation assumes a degree of incompetence that I simply don’t buy. Let me explain.

- As if Detroit didn’t have enough worries. In addition to the recession, and the bankruptcies of Chrysler and General Motors, a new threat has appeared in the rearview mirror. Many smaller automakers are gaining a bigger share of the market, most notably Hyundai and Kia. Together, the two Korean brands hold 7.3 percent of the American market, the same as Nissan, which ranks sixth in American sales, behind G.M., Toyota, Ford, Honda and Chrysler. Last year, Hyundai and Kia had 5 percent of the market.

CNNMoney.com:

- How the bailout bashed the banks. They were rescued from a crisis of their own making, but the political thrashing has left bad blood between business and government. An inside look at the trouble with TARP.

Business Week:
- Yes, the Fed is expanding the money supply. But any inflationary effect will be offset by consumers' new frugality.

- TiVo(TIVO) Wants to Be the Google(GOOG) of Television. How?

USA Today:

- A couple of tech giants you wouldn't expect are heavily wooing small businesses. IBM(IBM) and Google(GOOG) have stepped up efforts to nudge Microsoft (MSFT) aside and become tech suppliers of choice to small- and medium-size business (SMBs).

Politico:

- Giving a boost to health legislation after a bruising week, the pharmaceutical industry struck a deal Saturday with Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) and the White House to commit $80 billion over 10 years to help pay for comprehensive reform. The promised savings from the industry will be written into the reform bill, making them binding. Capping months of private talks, Baucus announced the deal in a Saturday afternoon press release that drug companies agreed to narrow the so-called doughnut hole in the Medicare Part D prescription drug plan.

Rasmussen Reports:

- The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 32% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -2. That’s the President’s lowest rating to date and the first time the Presidential Approval Index has fallen below zero for Obama (see trends).

Reuters:

- Saudi Electricity, the Gulf's largest utility by market value, said on Sunday it has obtained a 12-year loan worth 4.1 billion riyal ($1.09 billion) from U.S. Export-Import Bank and Canada's Export Development Credit (EDC). The cash will fund the purchase by the state-controlled company from U.S.-based GE Energy of 23 gas turbines with a capacity to generate 2.9 megawatts from , Electricity's Chief Executive Ali Saleh al-Barrak said. "This is the first direct loan to Saudi Electricity from the two banks," he said at a signing ceremony. Eximbank's share of the loan is $912 million and the remainder is from Canada's EDC.

- There is no room for governments that have borrowed billions to fight the economic crisis to accumulate more debt, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Sunday. "There is a moment where you can't spend anymore and you can't accumulate any more debt. I think we are at that moment," Trichet told Europe 1 radio.

Financial Times:

- The US has complained officially to China over its strict new internet censorship rules as tension builds over an issue causing consternation among international technology companies and Chinese internet users. The development is a rare direct intervention by the US over internet freedom, which has steadily risen in importance as an issue between the two countries in recent years. US technology companies see it as a back-door way of keeping them out of the Chinese market.

- A political party affiliated with Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the former president and key member of the Iranian regime, on Sunday called on Mir-Hossein Moussavi, the opposition leader, to form a “political bloc” that would pursue a long-term campaign to undermine the “illegitimate” government. Hossein Marashi, spokesman for the Kargozaran, stayed clear of directly challenging the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but told the Financial Times in a telephone interview that Mr Moussavi was now the leader of an opposition that was not without options. “With the lack of legitimacy of the Ahmadi-Nejad government, sooner or later the country’s management will face various crises,” he said. “Mr Moussavi should set up an official political front which can embrace the defenders of the real Islamic republic . . . against those who are distorting it and are represented by Mr Ahmadi-Nejad.”

The Guardian:

- Gordon Brown has admitted that he has been "hurt" by the personal attacks on him during the failed attempt to oust him this month, and said that he might move to teaching after he leaves office. Speaking to the Guardian in his first interview since the attempted coup by Labour backbenchers, the prime minister made an unprecedentedly frank series of observations on his time in office, reflecting that the recent weeks have been the worst of his political life.

- Staff at Goldman Sachs(GS) staff can look forward to the biggest bonus payouts in the firm's 140-year history after a spectacular first half of the year, sparking concern that the big investment banks which survived the credit crunch will derail financial regulation reforms. A lack of competition and a surge in revenues from trading foreign currency, bonds and fixed-income products has sent profits at Goldman Sachs soaring, according to insiders at the firm. Staff in London were briefed last week on the banking and securities company's prospects and told they could look forward to bumper bonuses if, as predicted, it completed its most profitable year ever. Critics of the bonus culture in the City said the dominance of a few risk-taking investment banks is undermining the efforts of regulators to stabilize the financial system. Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat treasury spokesman, said: "The investment banks more than any other institutions created the culture of excessive leverage, excessive risk and excessive bonuses that led to the downfall of the financial system. Now they are cashing in and the same bonus culture has returned. The result must be that we are being pushed to the edge of another crash." "These banks are intermediaries in the bond markets where governments and companies are raising billions of pounds of new money. There is also a lack of competition that means they can charge huge sums for doing business." Last week, the firm predicted that President Barack Obama's government could issue $3.25tn of debt before September, almost four times last year's sum. Goldman, a prime broker of US government bonds, is expected to make hundreds of millions of dollars in profits from selling and dealing in the bonds.

The Independent:

- The results were so startling that researchers decided to release details of the two cases before the drug trial – in which the patients took part – was complete. Doctors said their progress had exceeded all expectations. The men were treated at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota in the US, one of the top medical centers in the world. Dr Eugene Kwon, the urologist who was in charge of their treatment, compared the results to the first pilot breaking the sound barrier. "This is one of the Holy Grails of prostate cancer research. We have been looking for this for years," he said.

Dagens Nyheter:

- Ikea, the world’s largest home-furnishings retailer, was “cheated” out of $190 million on over-prices gas and electricity bills in Russia, founder Ingvar Kamprad said in an interview. “We have been cheated good,” he said. “There will be law suits.”

Welt am Sonntag:

- SAP AG is in preliminary talks about an acquisition of as much as $2.1 billion, citing a SAP manager. SAP has made 5 billion euros available for purchases.

Nikkei English News:
- Nissan Motor Co. and NEC Corp. may invest as much as $1 billion in a US electric car plant. The Japanese automaker will tie up with NEC to produce lithium-ion batteries at the factory in Smyrna, Tennessee. Annual production capacity at the site may reach as many as 100,000 vehicles by 2012.

Kyodo:

- Japan’s government plans to expand and better equip its military in the wake of nuclear bomb tests by North Korea and China’s rise as a regional power.

The Jerusalem Post:

- Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya'alon believes Iran is heading for a revolution but doesn't think it will have any effect on the country's nuclear program. "Since I was head of Military Intelligence, I have said, and I say it again now, that some 70 percent of Iranians are opposed to the ayatollah regime," Ya'alon said at a 'Shabbatarbut' event in Modi'in on Saturday. "[Opposition leader Mir Hossein] Mousavi and his wife have brought a new spirit of openness, and so I repeat - there will be a revolution in Iran." "It's impossible to hide the energy there now, and the Iranian regime is going to have to take that into consideration," he continued. "It makes no difference regarding the nuclear issue, but this regime will fall."

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (CSCO), (ALXN), (COH), (CHA), (TEF), (YHOO), (LSI) and (MU).

- Made negative comments on (RGR) and (SWHC).

Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (AMZN), target $100.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.25% to +1.0% on avg.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index +.43%.
S&P 500 futures +.04%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (WAG)/.56

Upcoming Splits

- None of note

Economic Releases

- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The (TK) analyst meeting, (BMC) analyst meeting, (KMX) shareholders meeting, $40 billion 2-year Treasury Note Auction and the (DAL) stockholders meeting call could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Click here for stocks in focus for Monday by MarketWatch.

There are some economic reports of note and just a few significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. – None of note

Tues. – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales, House Price Index, weekly retail sales reports

Wed. – Weekly MBA mortgage applications report, weekly EIA energy inventory report, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, FOMC Rate Decision

Thur. – Final 1Q GDP, Final 1Q Personal Consumption, Final 1Q GDP Price Index, Final 1Q Core PCE, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims

Fri. – Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Core, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence Index

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. – Walgreen Co.(WAG)

Tues. – Steelcase(SCS), Jabil Circuit(JBL), Darden Restaurant(DRI), Oracle Corp.(ORCL), Commercial Metals(CMC), Kroger Co..(KR)

Wed. – Monsanto(MON), Nike Inc.(NKE), Paychex(PAYX), Red Hat(RHT), American Greeting(AM), Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)

Thur. – Lennar Corp.(LEN), Jackson Hewitt(JTX), ConAgra(CAG), Palm Inc.(PALM), Micron Technology(MU), McCormick(MKC)

Fri. – KB Home(KBH)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. – (TK) analyst meeting, (BMC) analyst meeting, (KMX) shareholders meeting, $40 billion 2-year Treasury Note Auction, (DAL) stockholders meeting

Tue. – (BBY) shareholders meeting, $37 billion 5-year Treasury Note Auction, Wachovia Equity Conference

Wed. – (POL) Investor Day, Bernanke testimony on BAC/MER Deal, $27 billion 7-year Treasury Note Auction, (FSLR) investor meeting, Wachovia Equity Conference

Thur. – (CHS) analyst meeting, the Fed’s Fisher speaking

Fri. – None of note

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as diminishing financial sector pessimism, investment manager performance anxiety and lower energy prices offset profit-taking, more shorting and increasing economic angst. My trading indicators are giving mixed signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 921.23 -2.64%*

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 921.23 -2.64%
DJIA 8,539.73 -2.95%
NASDAQ 1,827.47 -1.69%
Russell 2000 512.72 -2.68%
Wilshire 5000 9,348.41 -2.77%
Russell 1000 Growth 410.47 -2.27%
Russell 1000 Value 465.51 -3.31%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 558.93 -1.42%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 553.18 -6.20%
Morgan Stanley Technology 450.89 -2.41%
Transports 3,219.77 -4.21%
Utilities 351.63 -1.86%
MSCI Emerging Markets 31.89 -5.77%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 32,435 -10.45%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -45 -287.50%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 16.0 -67.35%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 201,362 -1.53%
Total Put/Call .89 +2.30%
OEX Put/Call .99 -18.85%
ISE Sentiment 117.0 -26.42%
NYSE Arms .93 -5.10%
Volatility(VIX) 27.99 -.57%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 14.41 -76%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,219.79 -1.47%
AAII % Bulls 33.33 -15.08%
AAII % Bears 46.43 +18.29%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 69.60 -3.65%
Reformulated Gasoline 193.27 -5.44%
Natural Gas 4.06 +4.14%
Heating Oil 179.50 -2.70%
Gold 935.40 -.45%
Base Metals 151.25 -3.27%
Copper 225.30 -5.64%
Agriculture 319.72 -5.51%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.78% -1 basis point

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.0 +2.32%

10-year TIPS Spread 1.93% unch.
TED Spread 44.0 -2 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 138.87 +11.55%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 410.88 +8.91%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +54.50 -11.95ffip%
Fed Fund Futures imply 88.0% chance of no change, 12.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/24
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 66.25 -1.67%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 615,800 -1.1%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.38% -21 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 514,400 -15.81%
Weekly Retail Sales -4.60%
Nationwide Gas $2.69/gallon +.05/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 24.0% above normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 117.10 +.77%
US Dollar Index 80.36 +.2%
Baltic Dry Index 4,073 +16.94%
CRB Index 252.79 -3.61%

Best Performing Style
Large-cap Growth -2.27%

Worst Performing Style
Mid-cap Value -3.80%

Leading Sectors
HMOs +10.14%
Education +3.61%
Medical Equipment +1.50%
Biotech +1.08%
Drugs +1.03%

Lagging Sectors
Steel -6.99%
Oil Tankers -7.24%
Energy -7.42%
Oil Service -9.20%
Coal -12.02%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted By Gaming, HMO, Bank and Tech Shares

Evening Review
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories
Today’s Movers
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Futures
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart
In Play

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Lower Energy Prices, Falling Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs, Medical longs and Technology longs. I covered all my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is heavy. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling 5.66% and is high at 28.33. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 113.0 and the total put/call is slightly above average at .90. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 1.41 at its intraday peak, and is currently .97. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 2.06% today to 113.05 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 1.8% to 138.87 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5^th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is rising .72% to 44 basis points. The TED spread is now down 420 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising 1.2% to 49.25 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling .77% to 37 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is rising 2 basis points to 1.93%, which is down 71 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .17%, which is unch. today. The Nasdaq is substantially outperforming the other major averages today, despite weakness in (RIMM) shares. The sell-off in (RIMM) looks overdone to me ahead of many new product announcements over the coming months. (MSFT) has recently become a positive influence on the Naz instead of a drag. The stock looks the best it has in a long time technically, which could further propel Nasdaq outperformance. The weakness in oil is noteworthy given today’s dollar weakness and worries over a flare-up in violence in Iran over the weekend. On the negative side, breadth continues to underwhelm. Nikkei futures indicate an +109 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -4 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on lower energy prices, short-covering, lower long-term rates and less financial sector pessimism.