L.A. Mayor Asks to Shut City Services Two Days a Week. Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa called for shutting down “nonessential” city services two days a week, after Controller Wendy Greuel said the municipality’s cash may run out next month. The plan would target services that don’t generate revenue, the 57-year-old mayor said in a press conference today. He also said the Department of Water and Power is on a path to a negative credit rating watch. The City Council voted to block a proposed electricity rate increase last week. Fitch Ratings yesterday withdrew its AA- rating on $720 million of bonds the department planned to sell this month, according to a press release.
Harvard Class of '69 Blamed for Pension Mess in Hedge-Fund Book. Steven Drobny, who compares the joy of writing to “putting toothpicks in my eyeballs,” said he was obliged to write his second book because he’s worried taxpayers may one day have to bail out pension plans -- and he blames Harvard’s class of ‘69.
Vietnam Lures Intel(INTC), Samsung as Asean Woos Companies from China. Vietnam hosts Southeast Asian leaders this week as chair of their 10-nation bloc, shining a spotlight on the political and economic stability that prompted Intel Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. to increase investments. The communist nation drew 13.5 percent of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ foreign direct investment pool in 2008, up from 4.4 percent two years earlier, according to the 10-member group. And its allure may be rising, judging from a December survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. Vietnam is a preferred destination for businesses looking to relocate from China, Asia’s biggest investment recipient, the report said.
China Considers Yuan Trading Against Ruble, Won, Official Says. China is considering allowing the yuan to trade against the Russian ruble, South Korean won and Malaysian ringgit to promote its use in cross-border trade, an official at the China Foreign Exchange Trade System said. The People’s Bank of China is investigating the possibility of offering new foreign-exchange pairs, said an official at the Shanghai-based interbank exchange, a subsidiary of the central bank.
Israel Aid Pays U.S. Dividends That Exceed Cost: Steve Rothman. The argument that American military aid to Israel is damaging to the U.S. is not only erroneous, it hurts the national security interests of this country and threatens the survival of Israel. U.S. support for Israel is essential, not only for Israel’s national security, but for America’s. Every bit of that support -- and more -- withstands all reasonable scrutiny.
Euro Falls a 4th Day Versus Dollar on Greece, Growth Concerns. The euro fell for a fourth day against the dollar on concern a recovery in the 16-nation region will be hampered by discord over Greece’s rescue package. “We certainly see some downside risks to the euro as they don’t seem to have a final credible solution to Greece’s fiscal problems,” said Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The worse that these Greek concerns get, eventually there will be cuts to global growth forecasts.”
PBOC Advisor Says May Raise Rates This Quarter. China central bank advisor Li Daokui said the nation may raise interest rates in the second quarter, the China Securities Journal reported today. Inflation will be the biggest factor in China’s decision to increase interest rates, the Beijing-based newspaper cited Li as saying. If the nation’s monthly consumer price index gains more than 3 percent, the government may increase rates, the report cited Li as saying.
The Dodd Bill: Bailouts Forever. There are many reasons to oppose Sen. Chris Dodd's (D., Conn.) financial regulation bill. The simplest and clearest is that the FDIC is completely unequipped by experience to handle the failure of a giant nonbank financial institution.
Mr. Dimon Goes to Washington. As Congress prepares to push finance regulation to the front burner, plenty of bank executives—stung by Washington's Wall Street bashing—are keeping a low profile. James Dimon, chairman and chief executive of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., isn't one of them. Buoyed by J.P. Morgan's relative good health, he's spent the past year launching his own campaign to stave off government proposals that would rein in profits, boost consumer protections and impose new fees. Mr. Dimon's bank shelled out more for lobbying efforts last year—$6.2 million—than any of its peers, and the CEO has lately been a regular presence in the halls of Congress. He preaches about how new regulations could force J.P. Morgan to further crimp credit-card lending and raise fees for consumers. One move aimed at banks he's characterized as "un-American." His stance represents a turnaround from the early days of the financial crisis, when he emerged as one of Washington's biggest boosters. People close to Mr. Dimon say that he still supports the Obama administration, but has felt blindsided by some aspects of the overhaul. In 2007, the subprime-mortgage industry was showing signs of stress, and lawmakers were starting to ask questions. Mr. Dimon believed J.P. Morgan needed to develop relationships with regulators and politicians. Unlike Goldman, which had seen top executives Henry Paulson Jr. and Robert Rubin become Treasury secretaries under Presidents Bush and Clinton, J.P. Morgan had few ties with heavy hitters in Washington. After beefing up the bank's government-relations staff, Mr. Dimon started encouraging senior executives and board members to make trips to Washington. He also urged his bankers in states across the country to get acquainted with their local representatives.
BusinessWeek.com:
Greece May Find U.S. Lukewarm to Dollar Bond on Deficit Concern. Greece may discover it’s no cheaper to sell bonds in the U.S. than in Europe as the government seeks to persuade investors it can plug the region’s biggest budget deficit. Investors may demand a yield of as much as 7.25 percent to buy Greek 10-year dollar bonds, 410 basis points more than benchmark German bunds and 330 basis points more than Treasuries, according to Paris-based Axa Investment Managers, which oversees about $669 billion. TCW Group Inc., which manages $115 billion in assets from Los Angeles, says Greece may have to offer a premium of as much as 400 basis points over Treasuries.
Marketwatch.com:
Paulson & Co. Has a Good March. Paulson & Co. has grown quickly into one of the world's largest hedge fund firms, sparking concern its funds could get too big to generate attractive returns. But there were few signs of that in March. With $32 billion in assets at the start of 2010, Paulson was the third-largest hedge fund firm in the world behind J.P. Morgan Chase(JPM) and Bridgewater Associates. Unlike many big rivals, Paulson is taking in new cash, raising the question of how much money is too much for a hedge-fund manager, Bloomberg News reported in late March.
Clothing Chain Fills Niche For The Younger Set In Flyover Country. The men of rural America aren't exactly known as fashion leaders. But Rue21(RUE) is finding the inner dandy in the farm boy. In the fourth quarter, the clothing retailer reported a 30% jump in sales vs. the year earlier.
NY Times:
North Korea Sentences U.S. Man to 8 Years Hard Labor. North Korea said on Wednesday it had sentenced an American man to eight years of hard labour for illegally entering the country, a decision that could further strain ties with Washington. North Korea has previously used detained American citizens as bargaining chips and the announcement comes as the United States has been putting pressure on North Korea to return to stalled international nuclear disarmament talks. Gomes had been teaching English in Seoul for about two years before making the trip to North Korea. He was also active in Protestant churches, his colleagues said. He likely crossed into North Korea in support of U.S. Christian missionary Robert Park who entered the North on Christmas Day to raise awareness about its human rights abuses, said an activist who helped arrange Park's trip.
Greece Sets 10 Year Bund Spread Level For When Total Pandemonium Breaks Out at 450 BPS. Greek website bankingnews.gr reports that today's breach of 400 bps in spread to bunds on the 10 Year GGB is a very critical level, and that if spread widening continues, Greece "risks completely losing control" of its funding situation. The critical level in the 10 Year GGB spread to bunds beyond which all hell will break loose is 450 bps at which point "everyone will unload bonds and then control will be completely lost." (pardon our translation) Odd - no mention of CDS speculators having blown up Greece today: instead it is bond selling... How novel. The site also notes that while today's actions "should be a reasonable response and should reduce the spread, if that does not happen then Greece will completely lose control and very soon." This is likely the worst mistake that Greece could have done.
Left-Right Convergence on Financial Reform?It might be time to break up the banks. This is the position advocated by economists Simon Johnson and Robert Reich on the left, and Arnold Kling and others on the right.
Rasmussen Reports:
Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 47%, Democrats 38%. Republican candidates now hold a nine-point lead over Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 47% would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, up from 46% last week, while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent, down a point from the previous survey.
Politico:
Obama Judicial Nominee in 'Jeopardy'. Law professor Goodwin Liu is young and progressive, and could be on the fast track to the Supreme Court — but his nomination to a lower court has already hit a troubled patch after he neglected to send some of his most controversial statements to the Senate Judiciary Committee. On Tuesday, Liu sent an additional 117 items to the committee — including some of his most incendiary statements on issues such as affirmative action, school busing and constitutional welfare rights. Liu’s hearing has already been postponed once, and his failure to disclose controversial writings has Republicans saying Liu’s nomination is in “jeopardy.”
Securities Industry News:
Hedge Fund Investors Say No to Forced Lock-Ups. Institutional investors are fighting back against forced lock-ups on their monies in hedge funds, according to an annual survey of the hedge fund industry conducted by Credit Suisse. The survey, released on Tuesday, showed that 45 percent of investors have requested the removal of so-called mandatory side-pocketing of assets by fund managers which freeze their ability to redeem their monies from many hedge funds. Instead, the investors want optional side-pocketing which would allow them to decide whether or not their assets should be isolated. According to the Credit Suisse survey about 43 percent of investors have already insisted an increase in how often they can withdraw their monies; thirty nine percent of investors have asked for the removal of stringent lock-ups.
U.S. Consumer Loan Delinquencies Ease in Q4 2009. U.S. loan delinquencies fell in the fourth quarter, marking a second consecutive quarter of improvement, data compiled by a leading bank industry group showed on Tuesday. The American Bankers Association said eight out of 11 categories of consumer loans saw delinquencies fall in the fourth quarter. Among these categories, bank card delinquencies dropped to 4.39 percent from 4.77 percent, while delinquencies on home equity lines of credit fell to 2.04 percent from 2.12 percent. But the association said delinquencies increased in two categories: home equity loan delinquencies increased to a record high of 4.32 percent from 4.3 percent and non-card revolving loan delinquencies increased to 1.46 percent from 1.4 percent. Indirect auto loan delinquencies were unchanged at 3.15 percent, according to the ABA data.
US Rules on Smokestack Greenhouse Gases Out Soon. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will soon issue rules that will determine which power plants and factories will face greenhouse gas regulations, an agency official said on Tuesday. The measure, known as the "tailoring rule," will set emissions thresholds for the big emitters of gases blamed for warming the planet, such as coal-fired power plants and plants that make cement and glass.
Financial Times:
Iceland at Risk of Junk Credit Rating. Iceland risks having its credit rating downgraded to junk status if it fails to resolve the Icesave debt dispute with Britain and the Netherlands, Moody’s warned on Tuesday. The credit rating agency downgraded its outlook for Iceland to negative from stable amid deadlock in negotiations over €3.9bn lost by British and Dutch depositors in the collapsed Icesave online bank. The move came a month after a deal to repay the money was rejected by 93 per cent of Icelandic voters in a referendum, in spite of warnings from the UK that the country risked isolation if it failed to settle the debt. The dispute has held up crucial economic support from the International Monetary Fund and other lenders because the loans, agreed after the Icelandic banking sector collapsed in 2008, were conditional on Reykjavik fulfilling its international obligations. Moody’s said the country’s sovereign rating – currently one notch above junk status at Baa3 – could be placed on review for downgrade if the dispute continued to obstruct access to international finance. “The recovery of the Icelandic economy is threatened by the delays in the resolution of the Icesave dispute,” said Kenneth Orchard, head of Moody’s sovereign risk group. The Icelandic government has repeatedly stressed its commitment to reimbursing the money but it wants Britain and the Netherlands to accept softer repayment terms amid public anger that taxpayers are being asked to pay for the mistakes of bankers and regulators. Moody’s stressed there were no immediate payment concerns surrounding Icelandic sovereign debt and said a resolution of the Icesave dispute remained the likeliest outcome. However, it warned that the stalled negotiations raised questions about the country’s ability to refinance eurobonds maturing in December 2011 and May 2012.
Evaluating the Renminbi Manipulation. The incumbent superpower has blinked in its confrontation with the rising one: the US Treasury has decided to postpone a report due by April 15 on whether China is an exchange-rate manipulator. Since a programme of multilateral and bilateral consultations is under way, it was right to give these discussions a chance before taking any action. Is China a currency manipulator? Yes. China has intervened on a gigantic scale to keep its exchange rate down. Between January 2000 and the end of last year, China’s foreign currency reserves rose by $2,240bn; after July 2008, when the renminbi’s gradual appreciation against the dollar – begun three years earlier – halted, reserves rose by $600bn (see chart); and reserves are now close to 50 per cent of gross domestic product. Finally, a massive effort has been aimed at curbing the inflationary effects of intervention. Thus, China has controlled the appreciation of both nominal and real exchange rates. This surely is currency manipulation. It is also protectionist, being equivalent to a uniform tariff and export subsidy. Premier Wen Jiabao has protested against “depreciating one’s own currency, and attempting to pressure others to appreciate, for the purpose of increasing exports. In my view, that is protectionism”. The Chinese pot is calling the US kettle black.
Of Cows, Communities and Credit Default Swaps. It strains language to breaking point to describe CDS transactions as anything but gambling. The traders in AIG’s financial products division were inheritors of the amusements of Edward Lloyd’s coffee shop rather than the values of Swiss farmers. With short sales of equities, the need to borrow stock limits positions to the extent of insurable interest. But not in the CDS market. This observation leads directly to the increasingly widely held view – most recently expressed in this paper by my colleague Wolfgang Münchau – that CDS transactions should be permitted if they are insurance but not if they are gambling. The argument is in essence identical to that which led to the establishment of the doctrine of insurable interest in 1745: “It hath been found by experience, that the making of insurances, interest or no interest, or without further proof of interest than the policy, hath been productive of many pernicious practices.” Many things have changed since the 18th century, but many others have remained the same.
Copper Breaches $8,000 Barrier But Hot Metal Prices May Soon Cool. The price of copper passed $8,000 a tonne for the first time in 20 months yesterday, but hopes that it was proof of a sustained global recovery promptly suffered a setback when traders said that it may be about to fall steeply again. Traders in South-East Asia said yesterday that even if the Chinese economy continued to storm ahead at its present pace, copper demand was likely to dwindle because so many big construction projects, which use copper wiring extensively, had run their course. Moreover, preparations for the Shanghai Expo have been supporting copper prices since last summer. When the pavilions open their doors in three weeks’ time, building will have stopped and with it significant copper demand. Indeed, after the expo closes at the end of October, the market could be swamped with recycled metal. A fall in demand is also expected from Chinese utilities, responsible for more than half the country’s copper needs. Prodigious quantities of electricity cable have been laid as Beijing has ordered ever-greater investments in infrastructure. Many of those projects were brought forward as part of last year’s $586 billion stimulus programme, government spending that is already beginning to be wound down. State utilities, meanwhile, are coming under financial pressure, particularly those in drought-hit southern provinces, where low river levels have affected hydroelectric plants and have forced operators to buy coal to make up the power shortfall. Overall investment in the Chinese power grid is expected to fall by a quarter this year and cable producers are already talking about buying 10 per cent less copper. The expected decline in copper prices, commodity traders said, would be accelerated because large quantities of copper stocks reputedly were held in Chinese warehouses and not counted among the “official” stocks of the Shanghai exchange. According to one Shanghai-based commodity fund manager, it is thought that off-exchange copper outweighs the material that trades on the Shanghai Futures Exchange by a ratio of two to one.
People's Daily:
Stop Using English Phrases, Govt Tells Chinese TV Stations. TV viewers may no longer be able to hear English abbreviations, like "NBA" (National Basketball Association), from mainland broadcasters. China Central Television (CCTV) and Beijing Television (BTV) confirmed to China Daily on Tuesday that they had received a notice from a related government department, asking them to avoid using certain English abbreviations in Chinese programs.Broadcasters and journalists have been asked to provide Chinese explanations for unavoidable English abbreviations in their programs, the report said. The notice not only limits the use of English abbreviations in sports news, but also in economic and political news. Abbreviations such as "GDP" (gross domestic product), "WTO" (World Trade Organization) and "CPI" (consumer price index) will also be substituted with their Chinese pronunciations, it said. The country's top watchdog on television and radio, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, refused to comment.
Evening Recommendations Citigroup:
Reiterated Buy on (JWN), target $50.
Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.5 -1.0 basis point.
Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,350,000 barrels versus a +2,929,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,000,000 barrels versus a +313,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to fall by -1,125,000 barrels versus a -1,085,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to rise by +.5% versus a +1.49% gain the prior week.
3:00 PM EST
Consumer Credit for February is estimated to fall -$.7B versus a +$5.0B gain in January.
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
The Fed's Dudley speaking, Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking, Fed's Hoenig speaking, monthly retail same-store-sales after close, Treasury's $21 Billion 10-Year Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, (NVDA) analyst meeting and the (EOG) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.64 bps +1.35%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.84 bps +6.80%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 83.50 bps +5.92%
Emerging Market CDS Index 213.68 bps +.52%
2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 bps -2 basis points
TED Spread 13.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
3-Month T-Bill Yield .16% unch.
Yield Curve 283.0 bps +1 bp
China Import Iron Ore Spot $160.50/Metric Tonne +2.69%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +41.80 +1.7 points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33% +3 bps
Overseas Futures:
Nikkei Futures: Indicating +88 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
Higher: On gains in my Retail, Financial, Biotech and Tech long positions
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as stocks trade near session highs, despite rising sovereign debt fear. On the positive side, Education, REIT, Bank, Coal, Disk Drive and Networking stocks are especially strong, rising 1.0%+. Small-caps are outperforming again. (XLF) and (IYR) have traded very well throughout the day. Weekly retail sales rose +3.9% this week versus a +3.6% gain the prior week and up from a +1.8% increase during the last week of February. This is also the best weekly retail sales showing since the week of April 10th, 2007, which is a large positive. The euro continues to trade poorly even on more dovish-than-expected FOMC minutes, which likely means a test of recent lows is coming very soon. On the negative side, Homebuilding and Agriculture shares are .50%+ lower on the day. The rise in most euro cds is a large negative. The Citi Latin American Economic Surprise Index has fallen to +.4, which is the lowest of any region. Shanghai Copper inventories are up another +9.66% today and have risen 19.3% over the last five days to another record high. Investor angst remains subdued, which is also a negative. One of my longs, (DISCA), is hitting another new all-time high today. I still see meaningful upside in the shares from current levels over the intermediate-term. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower long-term rates, investment manager performance angst, technical buying and less economic fear.
Greek Bonds Plunge on Speculation EU-IMF Aid Plan May Falter. Greek bonds slumped, driving the yield premium investors demand to hold 10-year securities instead of benchmark German bunds to the most since 1998, on speculation Europe’s aid plan for the nation may falter. The yield on the two-year note surged a record 137 basis points after Market News International said Greece wants to bypass International Monetary Fund involvement in the agreement should it require aid because the terms would be too stringent. A Greek Finance Ministry official denied the report. An IMF delegation will arrive in Athens tomorrow to provide technical assistance and review the nation’s finances, Ta Nea newspaper said, without citing anyone. “Investors are pulling the trigger, taking the loss and wanting to get out,” said Christoph Rieger, co-head of fixed- income strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “We’re seeing a self-fulfilling vicious spiral where there is forced selling into a thin market. We don’t see any signs of the selloff slowing down.”
Euro Depreciates Amid Speculation EU Plan for Greece May Falter. The euro fell for a third day against the dollar amid speculation Greece may be having second thoughts about a plan that provides European Union and International Monetary Fund support in refinancing its debt. “The fear factor is back in regards to Greece,” said Dean Popplewell, an analyst in Toronto at the online currency-trading firm Oanda Corp. “People are concerned about the Greek government bypassing the IMF.” Greece received information from the IMF about conditions it would impose in return for aid, and officials found them “tough” and are concerned they might spark civil unrest, Market News International reported. It cited senior government people in Athens it didn’t identify. The report that Greece “isn’t keen on the IMF being involved in any bailout would seem to throw the whole plan into question,” said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London. “As an investor, do you really want to hang around and see what’s happening next? The Greece story is definitely a negative for the euro.”
Carlyle Gets $1.1 Billion for Financial Services Fund. Carlyle Group, the world’s second- largest private equity firm, raised $1.1 billion for its first fund targeting investments in the financial-services industry.
Retail Sales Rose as Much as 10% in March, ICSC Says. March sales at U.S. retailers may have increased as much as 10 percent compared with a year earlier, the International Council of Shopping Centers said. Warm weather and the April 4 Easter holiday, which fell eight days earlier than last year, helped lift sales last week, ICSC Chief Economist Michael Niemira said in an e-mailed statement today. Sales tied to Easter probably accounted for 6 percentage points of last month’s gain. The industry group’s previous maximum forecast for March was 3.5 percent. Revenue at retailers rose 4.7 percent for the week ending April 3 from a year earlier, Niemira said.
Job Openings in U.S. Decrease to 2.72 Million. Job openings in the U.S. fell in February for the first time in three months, a sign employers will be slow to expand staff even as firings subside. Openings decreased by 131,000 to 2.72 million, the Labor Department said today in Washington. “Conditions in the labor market will continue to be tenuous as firms look for a pickup in sales activity before increasing employment opportunities,” Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal in New York, said before the report. “Although labor conditions remain weak, we anticipate further improvement taking hold in coming months as conditions gradually improve.” Openings fell 4.6 percent in February from a revised 2.85 million in January that was larger than previously estimated. Compared with the 14.9 million Americans who were unemployed in February, the figures indicate there are more than 5 people vying for every opening, up from about 1.8 when the recession began in December 2007.
Wall Street Journal:
U.S. Narrows Role of Nuclear Arms. The Obama administration on Tuesday declared that it is narrowing the number of threats it seeks to deter with nuclear weapons, arguing that advances in U.S. missile defenses and conventional forces mean atomic arms are no longer needed to counterbalance most non-nuclear states. In a much anticipated, 72-page Nuclear Posture Review—the first since the Bush administration issued its own restructuring of nuclear doctrine in the months following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks—the administration said that even in cases of chemical and biological weapons, the U.S will no longer threaten to counter threats from non-nuclear countries that are living up to their obligations under international proliferation treaties.
SEC Weighs Tracking of High-Speed Trades. U.S. regulators are moving toward a new rule that would track transactions by high-frequency trading firms to improve oversight of their activity, according to people familiar with the matter. The plan would see the Securities and Exchange Commission give the firms unique identifiers, allowing the agency to keep closer tabs on traders that aren't registered market makers or broker-dealers. The SEC and other global regulators are intensifying scrutiny of computer-driven trading, which has expanded rapidly and is estimated to account for two-thirds of daily U.S. stock volume.
Arctic Sea Ice Melting Season Posts Latest Start on Record. The extent of sea ice over the Arctic Ocean grew until the last day of March, the latest the annual melting season has begun in 31 years of satellite records, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said.
CNBC:
3-Year Auction Meets Good Demand, But Prices Fall. Investors responded with predictably solid demand to the latest round of Treasury auctions, giving a solid bid to a sale of three-year notes. Investors, though, reacted with ambivalence, causing Treasurys to pare gains immediately after the sale.
'Extended Period' May Be Prolonged: FOMC Minutes. The U.S. Federal Reserve could keep interest rates ultra-low for even longer than investors anticipate if the outlook worsens or inflation drops, minutes from the central bank's last meeting suggested. The minutes released Tuesday showed lingering concern about the U.S. economy's prospects, with policymakers indicating they were in no hurry to raise interest rates. Officials believed their promise to keep rates low for "an extended period" would not unduly constrain the central bank if it felt the need to tighten monetary conditions.
The new foreclosure wave is here. Yes, banks are ramping up loan modifications and ramping up short sales and ramping up deeds in lieu of foreclosure, but the plain fact is that as the systems are oiled, the loans are moving through faster, and the pig in the python is showing its face. We won't get the numbers until next week, but sources tell me they will likely be a new monthly record.
NY Times:
Researchers Trace Data Theft to Intruders in China. Turning the tables on a China-based computer espionage gang, Canadian and United States computer security researchers have monitored a spying operation for the past eight months, observing while the intruders pilfered classified and restricted documents from the highest levels of the Indian Defense Ministry. In a report issued Monday night, the researchers, based at the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto, provide a detailed account of how a spy operation it called the Shadow Network systematically hacked into personal computers in government offices on several continents. The Toronto spy hunters not only learned what kinds of material had been stolen, but were able to see some of the documents, including classified assessments about security in several Indian states, and confidential embassy documents about India’s relationships in West Africa, Russia and the Middle East. The intruders breached the systems of independent analysts, taking reports on several Indian missile systems. They also obtained a year’s worth of the Dalai Lama’s personal e-mail messages. The intruders even stole documents related to the travel of NATO forces in Afghanistan, illustrating that even though the Indian government was the primary target of the attacks, one gap in computer security can leave many nations exposed.
SEC Faces Setbacks, Skepticism in Trying to Reform Its Enforcement Image. A year-long effort by the Securities and Exchange Commission to overhaul its enforcement of laws against corporate crime has run into courtroom setbacks and internal skepticism, underlining how difficult it is for the agency to remake itself as a get-tough cop. Top SEC officials have undertaken what they describe as the most significant reform of the agency's enforcement operations in nearly 40 years, pledging to bring big cases as never before. SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro and her hand-picked enforcement director, Robert Khuzami, have trumpeted measures designed to rapidly file major cases, send more lawyers to the front lines of investigations and set up teams specializing in specific areas of financial crime. The actions are in response to years of criticism by former officials and investor advocates that the SEC took too light a touch with Wall Street. But now, some senior SEC officials question whether the new measures will yield the kind of results that Schapiro and Khuzami are promising. "I'm looking to see whether or not all of the new initiatives are actually resulting in improved sanctions," said SEC Commissioner Luis A. Aguilar. "I don't yet see the empirical evidence."
55% Say Media Bias Bigger Problem in Politics Than Big Contributions. Voters agree that big money talks in politics but apparently not as loudly as big media. Fifty-five percent (55%) of U.S. voters continue to think that media bias is a bigger problem in politics today than big campaign contributions, identical to the finding in August 2008. Thirty-two percent (32%) say big contributions are the bigger problem, but that’s down four points from the previous survey. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Republicans and 62% of unaffiliated voters say media bias is the bigger problem in politics, a view shared by just 37% of Democrats.
Politico:
Democrats' Special Election Scramble. The prospect of losing two House seats in back-to-back special elections next month has sparked a vigorous, behind-the-scenes Democratic effort, designed to avoid an outcome that could lead to panic among the rank and file and stall the momentum generated by the recent passage of landmark health care legislation. The trajectories of the two elections, which will take place in Pennsylvania and Hawaii over a span of four days next month, have raised alarm bells among top party officials who fear that a pair of defeats in the Democratic-held seats could amount to a Massachusetts Senate sequel, overshadowing President Barack Obama’s health care reform plan and reinforcing a narrative that the Democratic Party is on track for severe losses in November.
The European Central Bank doesn't plan to raise interest rates any time soon, citing euro-area officials. "Monetary policy is still accommodative and it should stay that way for a while yet," an official said. "There may be scope" for the ECB to raise rates once governments start to reduce budget deficits, the person said.
Beijing Lays Ground for Renminbi Shift. China has begun to prepare the ground publicly for a shift in exchange rate policy, days after the US Treasury said it would postpone a decision on whether to name China a “currency manipulator”. A senior government economist told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday China could widen the daily trading band for the renminbi and allow it to resume the gradual appreciation it halted in July 2008 in response to the global credit crisis. Ba Shusong, deputy director-general of the Financial Research Institute at the Development Research Center, the cabinet’s think-tank, said the timing of any shift depended on the pace of economic recovery in both the US and China. Goldman Sachs predicts Beijing will soon widen the daily trading band within which the renminbi fluctuates against the dollar from plus or minus 0.5 per cent to plus or minus 1 per cent and then allow it to gradually rise. “Outside this base case, a relatively small and symbolic one-off revaluation remains possible but the likelihood of a more sizeable move remains negligible,” Goldman Sachs economists Helen Qiao and Yu Song said in a report.
Independent:
Stephen King: A Lesson in Public Finances History. Governments cannot increase borrowings indefinitely. Someone has to take the pain. Promising cuts is easy; delivering them is an entirely different matter. Monetary stability is ultimately grounded in fiscal stability. If, after the general election, it simply proves impossible to deliver the necessary budgetary cuts, what then happens? Does sterling collapse? Does the new government raise the inflation target? Will the printing presses be turned back on? Will Britain see its credit rating downgraded, thereby increasing the cost of international borrowing? I don't have the answer, but I know it's time to dust off the history books.
Telegraph:
Arctic Ice Increased During Freezing Winter. The amount of sea ice covering the Arctic has dramatically increased during the cold winter, reaching levels not seen at this time of year for almost a decade.
Ta Nea:
An International Monetary Fund delegation will arrive in Greece's capital tomorrow to provide technical assistance and review the country's finances.
Naftemporiki:
European Union officials in Athens last week forecast that Greece's economy may contract 3% this year.
