Monday, May 16, 2011

Tuesday Watch


Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

  • EU Ministers See Possible Greek Debt 'Reprofiling' in Follow-Up Aid Plan. European finance ministers for the first time floated the idea of talks with bondholders over extending Greece’s debt-repayment schedule, saying that last year’s 110 billion-euro ($156 billion) rescue has failed to restore the country to financial health. Europe would consider “reprofiling” Greek bond maturities as part of a package including stepped-up sales of state assets and deeper spending cuts, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said. “If all these conditions are fulfilled, we can discuss the question of reprofiling,” Juncker told reporters late yesterday after chairing a meeting of euro-area finance chiefs in Brussels. “It’s not reprofiling or nothing. It’s measures, measures and measures, and then maybe reprofiling.” Introducing that prospect marks a break in Europe’s crisis- fighting strategy, with governments potentially shifting some costs to bondholders instead of relying on taxpayer-funded bailouts to stamp out the debt crisis.
  • China Data Suggests Rising Risk of 'Hard Landing,' JPMorgan(JPM) Says. Chinese economic data suggests that the risk of a “hard landing” in the world’s second-largest economy is rising, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Adrian Mowat said. Fixed-asset investment in real estate has increased 35 percent in the first four months of the year even amid “very weak” property sales demand, Mowat, the brokerage’s chief Asia and emerging-markets strategist, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong. This means that residential inventories will increase and lead to a contraction in construction activity this year, he said in the interview. “I’m quite worried about the Chinese data, which suggests to me the probability of hard landing is building in China,” Mowat said. Global markets, including commodities, will continue to be “correcting,” he said.
  • Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) CEO Girds for 'Tough Quarter'. Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) Chief Executive Officer Leo Apotheker told top executives that he’s bracing for “another tough quarter” in the July period and urged his deputies to “watch every penny and minimize all hiring.” The company’s existing headcount plans are “unaffordable given the pressures on our business,” Apotheker wrote in the May 4 memo to deputies including Todd Bradley, executive vice president of the personal systems business, and Chief Financial Officer Cathie Lesjak. The memo was obtained by Bloomberg. Hewlett-Packard, based in Palo Alto, California, dropped as much as 5.1 percent to $37.76 in extended trading. Following the release of the memo, Hewlett-Packard said it would move up its second-quarter earnings report to tomorrow morning, rather than the afternoon of May 18.
  • Strauss-Kahn to Spend Night on Rikers Island. International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, accused of sexually assaulting and attempting to rape a hotel housekeeper, was sent to New York’s Rikers Island jail complex, a corrections official said. A Manhattan judge today ordered Strauss-Kahn held without bail, two days after he was pulled off an Air France flight as it prepared to leave John F. Kennedy International Airport. Strauss-Kahn faces as long as 25 years in prison if convicted of the most serious charge, said prosecutors, who convinced Criminal Court Judge Melissa Jackson he presented a flight risk. Strauss-Kahn, 62, “restrained a hotel employee inside of the room,” Manhattan Assistant District Attorney Artie McConnell told the judge at a packed bail hearing in lower Manhattan. “He sexually assaulted her and attempted to forcibly rape her. When he was unsuccessful, he forced her to perform oral sex on him.”
  • Oil Extends Drop as Concern Eases Over Mississippi Floods; Gasoline Slumps. Oil dropped for a second day in New York after the opening of spillways curbed speculation the Mississippi River will flood refineries and disrupt fuel supplies in the world’s biggest crude-consuming nation. Crude for June delivery slipped as much as 55 cents to $96.82 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $96.93 at 9:10 a.m. Sydney time.
  • Pimco's Gross Says 'Insolvent' Greece Is World's Biggest Default Candidate. Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said Greece is the world’s biggest candidate for default. “We suggest that Greece is insolvent and that at some point the can cannot be kicked down the road any further,” said Gross in an “InBusiness with Margaret Brennan” interview on Bloomberg Television. “Ultimately debt holders will have to bear some of the burden as well.” European finance ministers stepped up pressure today on Greece to sell assets and deepen spending cuts to win an increase of its 110 billion-euro ($156 billion) aid package and more time to repay the loans. Europe’s rich countries tied extra money to pledges by Greece to reap more revenue at home and considered whether to make bondholders share the pain. “Greece is the No. 1 candidate for default,” Gross said. “Greece, even with the stringent fiscal measures, can’t get above the line in terms of real growth. It becomes a question of solvency, as opposed to liquidity.”
  • Soros Sold Most of His Gold ETP Holding During First Quarter, Filing Shows. Billionaire investor George Soros sold most of his holdings in the bullion-backed SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) funds in the first quarter and bought shares of mining companies Goldcorp Inc. and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX), a government filing shows. Soros Fund Management LLC held 49,400 shares of SPDR Gold Trust as of March 31, compared with 4.721 million at the end of the fourth quarter, the filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission showed. The New York-based fund sold all 5 million shares it held in iShares Gold Trust.
  • John Paulson's Fund Took $1 Billion HP(HPQ) Stake, Bought Lubrizol(LZ) Last Quarter. Paulson & Co., the New York-based hedge fund founded by John Paulson, took a new stake in Hewlett- Packard Co. last quarter valued at about $1 billion and bought shares in Lubrizol Corp. (LZ).
  • Falcone's Harbinger Holdings Adds Bunge(BG) Shares, Trims Gold Stake. Harbinger Holdings LLC, the hedge fund run by Philip Falcone, bought shares of food company Bunge Ltd. (BG) in the first quarter and sold shares of SPDR Gold Trust, according to a regulatory filing. Harbinger’s holdings of U.S. stocks declined to $1.1 billion from $1.6 billion in stocks at the end of 2010, according to today’s filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Obama Holding Assets of Up to $11.8 Million. President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama reported holding total assets of between $2.8 million and $11.8 million last year, according to federal financial disclosure forms released today. The president’s assets were concentrated in U.S. Treasury obligations. He reported between $1 million and $5 million in U.S. Treasury bills and between $1 million and $5 million in Treasury notes, according to the forms, which report assets in ranges rather than specific amounts. Treasury bills have maturities of one year or less; Treasury notes have maturities of between one and 10 years. In his checking account, Obama, 49, reported a balance of between $250,001 and $500,000, held at JPMorgan Chase & Co.(JPM) The disclosure forms reveal that Obama’s holdings grew from 2009, when he reported assets of between $2.3 million and $7.7 million.
  • Cohen's SAC Buys Newmont(NEM), Dendreon(DNDN) While Cutting Plains Exploration(PXP) Stake. SAC Capital Advisors LP, the hedge fund founded by billionaire Steven A. Cohen, boosted stakes in Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), CenturyLink Inc. (CTL) and Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) during the first quarter, according to a regulatory filing.
  • Australia Central Bank Foresees Need for Higher Rates to Contain Inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia said a rising currency is helping contain inflation pressures that may need to be slowed “at some point” by higher interest rates, minutes of its May 3 meeting showed. “If economic conditions continued to evolve as expected, higher interest rates were likely to be required at some point if inflation was to remain consistent with the medium-term target,” according to the minutes released today in Sydney. “Members viewed the current mildly restrictive stance of monetary policy as remaining appropriate.”
Wall Street Journal:
  • Insured Loss Estimate From Southern Tornadoes Hits $6 Billion. A new damage estimate shows the powerful tornadoes that hit the South in late April caused insured losses of up to $6 billion, the highest figure yet to emerge from disaster-modelers. A single tornado that struck Tuscaloosa and Birmingham in Alabama accounts for nearly 40% of the estimate from disaster-modeling company Risk Management Solutions.
  • SEC Charges Another Adviser In Ponzi Scheme Tied to Venezuela.
  • Appaloosa Trots Away From Bank Stocks, Cisco(CSCO). Reports of the 13-F filings of several hedge funds are starting to hit the wires. One very interesting tidbit grabbed our attention right away: It looks like David Tepper is leading Appaloosa Management away from the banking sector a bit. According to Dow Jones Newswires headlines, Appaloosa cut its stake in Citigroup(C) to 76.6 million shares in the first quarter of 2011 from 117.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2010. Tepper’s not the only one dumping Citi. Lone Pine and Tudor Investment have, too, reports Business Insider. Appaloosa also cut its holdings in Wells Fargo(WFC), Fifth Third(FITB), Capital One(COF), Bank Of America(BAC), J.P. Morgan(JPM) and Suntrust Banks(STI). Tepper & Co. reported no stake in Cisco this time and cut stakes in Micron Technology(MU) and Applied Materials(AMAT). On the flipside, Appaloosa raised its stakes in Goodyear(GT) and Dean Foods(DF) (a winning bet for him so far) and announced new stakes in Apple(AAPL), Beazer Homes(BZH), CVR Energy, DR Horton(DHI), KB Home(KBH) and Pulte Group(PHM).
  • New York AG Probes Banks Over Mortgage Securities. New York Attorney Attorney General Eric Schneiderman has opened an investigation into the packaging of mortgage loans into securities, in the latest sign of increased scrutiny of the mortgage industry. Mr. Schneiderman will hold meetings with executives of several major banks, including Bank of America Corp.(BAC), Morgan Stanley(MS) and Goldman Sachs(GS), according to people familiar with the investigation. He intends to discuss securitization of mortgage loans and other mortgage practices and has requested related documents from the firms, these people said.
  • U.S. Balks at Pakistani Bills. The U.S. and Pakistan are engaged in a billing dispute of sizable proportions, sparring behind closed doors over billions of dollars Washington pays Islamabad to fight al Qaeda and other militants along the Afghanistan border. Washington, increasingly dubious of what it sees as Islamabad's mixed record against militants, has been quietly rejecting more than 40% of the claims submitted by Pakistan as compensation for military gear, food, water, troop housing and other expenses, according to internal Pentagon documents.
  • Israeli Leader Sees Rising Arab Threat. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a stark assessment of how he sees changes in the Arab world threatening his country, warning of the potential for more clashes like the protests on Israel's borders that left 14 people dead Sunday. Mr. Netanyahu, in a speech to parliament, also signaled Israel won't negotiate with a Palestinian government that includes the militant faction Hamas—his most explicit rejection yet of a recent truce between rival Palestinian factions that was forged under the pressure of Arab popular revolts.
  • Muslim Brotherhood Raises Syria Profile. The exiled Muslim Brotherhood of Syria, the only antiretime group to ever seriously challenge the Assad government, said it was trying to take a larger role in organizing the disparate opposition as Syria's street protests appear to wane.
  • U.N. Panel: North Korea Is Exporting Missiles. North Korea remains "actively engaged" in exporting ballistic missiles, components and technology to numerous customers in the Middle East and South Asia in violation of United Nations sanctions, a U.N. panel said in a new report. The seven-member panel said in a report to the U.N. Security Council obtained Monday by the Associated Press that North Korea has also completed or is about to complete construction of a second launch site for long-range rockets.
MarketWatch:
CNBC:
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
IBD:
NY Times:
gurufocus.com:TechCrunch:
  • California Bill to Give Parents Access To Kids' Facebook Pages. California SB 242, proposed by Sen. Ellen Corbett, would force social networks like Facebook to allow parents access to their child’s account(s) and, more importantly, force all privacy settings to their maximum level by default. Parents can request that images or text be removed from any social network page “upon request … within 48 hours upon his or her request.” Here’s the interesting part: any social network failing to perform these duties will get hit with a $10K fine per incident. Obviously this is a state-level law and does not apply nationally (yet) and it does smack of the nanny state.
Huffington Post:
Reuters:
  • Rule Change May Expose More Soured Bank Loans - Fitch. A recent accounting change and stepped up scrutiny from regulators may force U.S. banks to disclose more about restructured property loans, affecting earnings at some companies, Fitch Ratings said. Regional and community banks, with the highest concentration of commercial real estate loans, will likely be most affected by the accounting change when it goes into effect in the third quarter, Fitch said in a report on Monday.
  • Urban Outfitters(URBN) Q1 Revenue Rises, Shares Up. Urban Outfitters Inc stores posted a rise in its first-quarter revenue that beat market estimates, helped by higher sales at its direct-to consumer and wholesale segments. Shares of the operator of Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, Free People and Terrain stores rose 3 percent in after-market trading.
  • Ackman's Pershing Capital Exits Target(TGT), General Motors(GM).
Economic Daily News:
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. will cut its prices by three to five percent in the third quarter, the first time in 18 months, citing people in the industry.
Wen Wei Po:
  • China must try to curb foreign exchange reserve growth to reduce risk from holding U.S. Treasury assets, citing Zhang Ming, economist of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. China can lower risk by widening the trading band of yuan, decreasing the trade surplus and scraping policies beneficial to foreign direct investment, Zhang said.
Hong Kong Economic Times:
  • China needs to push down housing prices to fight a property bubble, Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in a commentary. The central government can rely on taxation to achieve this goal, Yi said.
National Business Daily:
  • China has approved cutting the tax-rebate for textile exports to 11% from 16%, citing market speculation. The reduction may be implemented in June or July.
21st Century Business Herald:
  • China may raise on-grid electricity prices for coal-fired power plants in the provinces of Hunan, Guizhou and Jiangxi, citing a person familiar with the situation.
Shanghai Securities News:
  • Limits on power usage in China caused by a shortage of electricity may reduce the nation's second-quarter economic growth by .5 percentage points, citing an analyst.
South China Morning Post:
  • Chinese Homebuyers Driven Overseas. Held back by Beijing's measures to slow runaway housing prices, mainland investors are taking their money to markets from Hong Kong to Mexico.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.0 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 115.75 +1.125 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures -.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (DKS)/.29
  • (HD)/.50
  • (WMT)/.95
  • (SKS)/.16
  • (TJX)/.80
  • (ADI)/.68
  • (DELL)/.43
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for April are estimated to rise to 569K versus 549K in March.
  • Building Permits for April are estimated to fall to 590K versus 594K in March.
9:15 am EST
  • Industrial Production for April is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.8% gain in March.
  • Capacity Utilization for April is estimated to rise to 77.6% versus 77.4% in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • (HLF) 2-for-1
  • (TDSC) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly retail sales reports, BMO Capital Farm Conference, Needham Cleantech Conference, Goldman Sachs BRICs Conference, Piper Jaffray China Growth Conference, Oppenheimer China Conference, (NE) analyst day, (INTC) investor meeting, (PWER) analyst day, (APA) investor day, (AAWW) investor day, (CSX) investor conference, (SSW) analyst event and the (ARMH) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Global Growth Concerns, Tech Sector Weakness, Growing Mideast Unrest, More Shorting


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 17.58 +2.99%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +35.23%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -1.08%
  • NYSE Arms .80 -52.94%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.76 +.59%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.17 +.99%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 176.25 -1.67%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 205.50 -.28%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 24.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  • Yield Curve 263.0 -1 bp
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $178.50/Metric Tonne -.17%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -38.30 -3.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35% -2 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -2 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -24 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my Biotech, Retail and Tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bearish as the S&P 500 trades near session lows despite falling energy prices, less eurozone debt angst and falling long-term rates. On the positive side, Airline, HMO and Paper shares are especially strong, rising more than +.5%. (XLF) and (IYR) have outperformed throughout the day. The transports are also relatively strong. Gold is down -.07%, oil is falling -2.23% and lumber is rising +.91%. Silver is down another -4.1% today and has collapsed -32.1% in less than 1 month. The 10-year TIPS spread continues to weaken. The 10-year yield is falling -2 bps to 3.15%. The Spain sovereign cds is falling -4.22% to 225.51 bps, the Portugal sovereign cds is down -4.05% to 593.32 bps, the Ireland sovereign cds is falling -4.9% to 600.11 bps and the Belgium sovereign cds is down -6.58% to 126.53 bps. On the negative side, Gaming, Biotech, Networking, Disk Drive, Computer, Software, Internet, Oil Tanker and Alt Energy shares are under significant pressure, falling more than -1.50%. Small-cap shares are underperforming again. The tech sector is very "heavy" today. The US price for a gallon of gas is falling -.02/gallon today to $3.96/gallon. It is up .82/gallon in 89 days. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is rising +.34% and copper is down -.16%. The China sovereign cds is gaining +1.0% to 71.30 bps, the Israeli sovereign cds is gaining +.75% to 145.03 bps and the US Muni CDS Index is rising +.91% to 125.48 bps. Commodities continue to trade as if further downside is in store. The last time the 10-year TIPS spread broke down technically, which is a longer-term positive, the S&P 500 began a -15% correction in early May 2010. Moreover, the very poor technical action in key stocks, remains a large concern. Asian equities finished near their lows overnight. India's Sensex fell another -1.01% and is now down -10.55% ytd. Brazil's Bovespa also displays very poor technicals, falling another -.8% today and is now down -9.3% ytd. It appears as though more weakness in US stocks is becoming more likely over the coming weeks. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on technical selling, more shorting, eurozone debt worries, rising Mideast unrest, global growth concerns, emerging market inflation fears and profit-taking.

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • IMF's Strauss-Kahn Ordered Held Without Bail. International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, accused of attempting to rape a hotel maid, was ordered held without bail by a New York judge.
  • Manufacturing in New York Slows More Than Estimated on Raw-Material Costs. Manufacturing in the New York region expanded at a slower pace than forecast in May, showing that surging raw-material costs are hurting confidence. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to 11.9 from a one-year high of 21.7 in April, the central bank reported today.
  • Homebuilder Confidence Fell This Month on Sales Outlook, NAHB Index Shows. Confidence among U.S. homebuilders fell in April, led by a decline in the outlook for sales, a sign the residential construction market may languish near record-low levels. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index declined to 16 this month from 17 in March, data from the Washington-based group showed today. A measure of sales expectations for the next six months dropped to the lowest level since October, and a gauge of current purchases also fell.
  • Global Demand for U.S. Assets Fell in March. Global demand for U.S. long-term financial assets such as government bonds slowed in March as investors shifted into shorter-term securities and China trimmed its portfolio of Treasuries. Net buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled $24 billion during the month, compared with net buying of $27.2 billion in February, according to statistics issued today in Washington.
  • Tepco Says Fuel in 2 Reactors May Have Melted. Tokyo Electric Power Co. said fuel in other reactors at its damaged nuclear plant may have melted, after confirming rods in the No. 1 unit had fallen from their assembly, potentially delaying plans to resolve the crisis. “The findings at the No. 1 reactor indicate the likelihood that the water level readings in the other reactors aren’t accurate,” Junichi Matsumoto, a general manager at the utility known as Tepco, said today. “It could be that a meltdown similar to that in the No. 1 reactor has occurred.”Moody’s Japan K.K. cut Tepco’s credit ratings and put it on review for further possible downgrade after today’s news. Tepco has been struggling to cool reactors and stop radiation leaks to end the worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl in 1986. The discovery that fuels rods melted within 16 hours of power being knocked out means it’s unlikely Tepco can meet its timetable for containing the leaks, a nuclear engineering professor said. “Tepco didn’t clearly indicate how much uncertainty and potential negative scenarios were factored into the road map,” said Hironobu Unesaki at Kyoto University. “I don’t think they gathered enough data before coming up with the plan.” Tepco fell 7.3 percent today to 420 yen in Tokyo.
  • Pimco Sees Financial Repression in U.S. Amid 'Deteriorating Debt Dynamics'. Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s largest bond fund, said “deteriorating debt dynamics” will stoke faster inflation and financial repression in the U.S. as well as at least one sovereign-debt restructuring in Europe. “It is a world where several governments in advanced economies, and the U.S. in particular, opt for financial repression and mild inflation as the major way to accommodate their deteriorating debt dynamics,” Newport Beach, California- based El-Erian wrote in a report published today on the firm’s website. “It is a world that heals slowly and unevenly and remains structurally impaired.” Such tactics are evidence officials will continue to “hobble” through in their efforts to propel economies from the aftershocks of the global recession, he said. Europe will remain plagued by its fiscal crisis with “the virtual certainty of at least one, and probably more, sovereign-debt restructurings.”
  • Oil Drops on Economy Risk; BofA's Blanch Sees Demand Destruction. Oil dropped for the first day in three in New York after President Barack Obama said failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling may unravel global finances and threaten growth in the world’s biggest crude consumer. Futures slipped as much as 1.3 percent after Obama said the U.S. “could have a worse recession than we’ve already had,” according to a segment taped for CBS’s “Face the Nation” program. Prices also slid on concern Greece’s debt crisis may worsen, threatening Europe’s economic growth. Oil may drop in the second half of the year amid signs prices are causing demand to slow, said Francisco Blanch, head of Global Commodity Research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Crude for June delivery slid as much as $1.30 to $98.35 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $98.79 at 1:06 p.m. Sydney time.
Wall Street Journal:
  • DOJ Threatened to Sue Over Nasdaq(NDAQ) - NYSE(NYX). Mystery solved. Nasdaq this morning dropped its noisy effort to take over the New York Stock Exchange. It slunk away saying it “became clear” regulators wouldn’t approve a merger of the U.S.’s dominant stock exchanges. Now, the U.S. Department of Justice is taking credit for squashing the Nasdaq deal. the DOJ said Nasdaq and its partner walked away from their $11 billion bid for NYSE “after the Department of Justice informed the companies that it would file an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal.”
  • Why The Jobs Market Feels So Dismal by Edward Lazear. The number of hires is the same today as it was when we were shedding jobs at record rates.
  • U.S. Condemns Syrian Involvement in Israel. The White House on Monday condemned Syria's involvement in protests along Israel's border over the weekend that led to the death of at least 13 people and urged the countries to show restraint. "We are also strongly opposed to the Syrian government's involvement in inciting yesterday's protests in the Golan Heights," White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said Monday. "Such behavior is unacceptable and does not serve as a distraction from the Syrian government's ongoing repression of demonstrators in its own country."
MarketWatch:
CNBC.com:
  • Medicare, Entitlements on the Table for Cuts: Pelosi. Everything must be on the table as the U.S. Congress works to cut the deficit, including Medicare, Social Security and entitlements, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told CNBC Monday. "All the money is fungible, and at the end of the day the deficit has to be reduced," the California Democrat said the day the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling expired. The government has 11 weeks to raise the debt ceiling or be in default.
  • High Commodity Prices to Lower 2011 Growth: Survey. High commodity prices will slow U.S. economic growth and raise inflation this year. The National Association for Business Economics' latest survey showed economists trimmed their 2011 annual average growth estimate to 2.8 percent from 3.3 percent in February. Economists lowered their growth estimates in response to the first-quarter's 1.8 percent annual pace, which was a sharp slowdown from the 3.1 percent rate in the final three months of 2010. Growth was held back by high food and gasoline prices. "Panelists are increasingly concerned about rising commodity prices and inflation," said NABE president Richard Wobbekind. The survey was conducted between April 13 and May 1, and covered 41 economists.
  • IMF Chief's Arrest Could Mean Harsher Bailout for Greece.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
Internet Retailer:
  • Texas Moves Ahead With An Online Sales Tax Bill. The Texas Senate approved by a 30-to-1 vote Friday a bill that would require online and catalog retailers with an in-state physical presence, such as stores or distribution centers, to collect and remit sales tax even if those facilities are operated by subsidiaries. Already approved by the Texas House of Representatives, the bill is expected to go before the governor by the end of this month.
MobileBeat:
  • Seagate(STX) Debuts Mobile Wireless Storage for iPhones. Storage giant Seagate is announcing today the first mobile wireless storage device for iOS devices (iPhones, iPads, and iPod Touches). The GoFlex mobile wireless storage device is a battery-powered external hard drive that can wirelessly extend the storage capacity of any Wi-Fi-enabled device. The device can store 500 gigabytes of data and extend a device’s storage via 802.11 b/g/n wireless networking. It has enough storage capacity to back up the entire library of video, music, pictures and documents that most people have on their mobile devices.
Politico:
  • Donald Trump Says He Won't Run in 2012. Donald Trump to Donald Trump: “You’re fired.” The publicity-loving New York developer and reality-TV star pulled the plug on his would-be 2012 presidential run Monday afternoon, saying he still believes he'd be best for the job but that he's not ready to give up on making money in the private sector.
Reuters:
ECO:
  • Niall Ferguson, a professor of history at Harvard University in the U.S., said Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. seems like a "well-run bank" compared with the debt on some German lenders' balance sheets, citing an interview. A restructuring of Greek debt is "unavoidable," Ferguson said. The future of the eurozone largely depends on Germany, he said.
ABC News:
  • Japan Extends the Exclusion Zone Around Fukushima. Japan has begun evacuating people from outside the official exclusion zone around the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant. With radiation levels remaining high, small children and pregnant women were the first to be moved with thousands more to be shifted into shelters and temporary housing. As the evacuation zone widened more details have emerged about the meltdown in Fukushima's reactor number one, with revelations the fuel rods probably melted in the hours after the magnitude nine earthquake in March - a fact not discovered until last week.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth (-.84%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Internet -2.04% 2) Software -1.66% 3) Networking -1.46%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • FCX, REDF, ALLT, AMZN, DELL, ISYS, RMBS, HTLD, MDSO, RDEA, VRTU, MIDD, DEST, FEIC, SSRX, TITN, LCAPA, JAZZ, CHBT, NXTM, WBMD, MNRO, YHOO, PEGA, PSO, JCP, TLP, NYX, CXW, FUN, FNB, PXQ, ID, GEO, SEMG and DHX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DELL 2) LOW 3) NYX 4) JCP 5) JWN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) KEY 2) LOW 3) MSI 4) KNX 5) MGA
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value (+.55%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Coal +2.45% 2) Airlines +1.86% 3) Steel +1.79%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CLF, PBR, BBL, TSO, SINA, BIDU, CISG, SIGA, ENOC, STEC, SNDK, ICE, FE, ANV, RDC, DAR, ATK, DFS and CBOE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AXL 2) NGD 3) SIGA 4) AGN 5) IVN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LOW 2) NYX 3) GOOG 4) YHOO 5) SNDK
Charts:

Monday Watch


Weekend Headlines

Bloomberg:

  • Merkel Risks Revolt Over Greece. Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a gathering storm in her coalition over Germany’s share of euro- area rescues, threatening to undermine her ability to make concessions on additional help for Greece. Merkel’s Free Democratic coalition partner signalled a hardening of its stance on bailouts at a convention as the party leadership fought to quash a revolt over granting rescues. While a motion to eject aid recipients that miss debt-cutting targets from the euro was defeated, a leading rebel said that as many as 50 coalition lawmakers are ready to reject the post-2013 euro bailout fund when it goes to parliament later this year. “We know that public acceptance of European themes is dwindling,” Economy Minister Philipp Roesler told FDP members in the Baltic Sea port of Rostock yesterday in his first speech as party leader. Aid appraisals must be based on “clear conditions with sanctions for failure to adhere to rules,” he said, pledging “no taboos.” FDP lawmaker Frank Schaeffler, who last year called for Greece to sell its islands to cut debt, saw his demand for states to be ejected from the euro “at short notice” in cases of rule breaking defeated in a vote yesterday. Even so, he said that as many as 50 lawmakers across the coalition are prepared to join his revolt against the European Stability Mechanism due to take over from the current rescue fund in mid-2013. That’s an increase of at least 10 votes in the past three weeks, enough to eliminate Merkel’s 41-seat advantage over the opposition when the ESM goes to a vote after the summer recess, leaving her reliant on opposition support. “A year ago I was isolated in the party, but that’s no longer the case,” Schaeffler said in an interview. “A good many Free Democrats share the view in private that something is going badly wrong in solving this crisis.” The bailout skeptics aim to tap a vein of resentment that’s brewing in Germany and other AAA-rated countries such as Finland over being forced to rescue their euro-area neighbors. Twenty percent of Germans view Merkel’s decision last year to help Greece as “right,” according to a poll published May 8 by consumer survey company GfK SE. Another 47 percent of respondents said the decision was “wrong,” suggesting that Merkel’s coalition may struggle to justify any additional aid.
  • IMF Chief Strauss-Kahn Charged With Attempted Rape. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, head of the International Monetary Fund and a potential candidate for the French presidency, was charged with attempted rape and a criminal sex act on a New York hotel maid, police said. The attack allegedly occurred yesterday against a 32- year-old female at a Sofitel hotel in midtown Manhattan, according to an e-mailed statement by the New York Police Department. Strauss-Kahn, who was taken into custody aboard an Air France flight at John F. Kennedy International Airport, also was charged with unlawful imprisonment. Strauss-Kahn, 62, denied the charges and will plead not guilty, his lawyer Benjamin Brafman said. He is scheduled to appear tonight or tomorrow morning for arraignment in Manhattan Criminal Court. New York police said Strauss-Kahn was picked out of a lineup today by the maid. The arraignment has been delayed while investigators seek a warrant to allow examination of the IMF chief’s body for scratches or the accuser’s DNA, police said. New York Police Deputy Commissioner Paul Browne said the assault occurred about 1 p.m. yesterday when the woman entered the $3,000-a-night suite -- Room 2806 -- Strauss-Kahn had checked into on May 13, Browne said. Strauss-Kahn is alleged to have emerged from a bathroom naked and made two attempts to forcibly have sex with the maid, Browne said in a telephone interview.
  • Euro Crisis May Scuttle Eastern Europe Economy as Investors Bet on Region. Eastern Europe’s economic recovery may be scuttled by any Greek debt restructuring, which would curb lending by western banks and undermine investor bets that have propelled the region’s stocks, bonds and currencies. While the region has three of this year’s 10 best- performing currencies and five of the 10 equity indexes that rose the most, 76 percent of its banking market is controlled by western European lenders still threatened by the euro’s debt crisis. “You would expect that the Greek troubles now would have a bigger impact on emerging Europe,” said Neil Shearing, senior emerging-market analyst at Capital Economics in London. “It’s a puzzle. I suspect it might just be the calm before the storm.”
  • Euro Falls Before Finance Ministers Meet to Discuss Avoiding Greek Default. The euro fell toward a six-week low against the dollar on concern European finance ministers may fail to quell speculation about Greece’s debt restructuring. “The market is closely watching what will come out from this week’s meetings,” said Toshiya Yamauchi, a senior currency analyst in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow Ltd., which provides foreign- exchange margin-trading services. “Any preemptive move is unlikely, and concern about Greece’s restructuring may spread to countries like Ireland. That may continue to give selling pressure for the euro.”
  • Israel Clashes With Protesters on Four Fronts on 'Nakba Day'. Israel clashed with demonstrators on four of its borders, leaving as many as nine people dead in violence that Israeli officials blamed on Syria and Iran. The protests in the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip marked the annual observance of what Palestinians call “nakba,” meaning “catastrophe” -- a reference to their displacement as a result of the 1948 establishment of the state of Israel. “I see fingerprints of Iranian provocation and an attempt to use Nakba Day to create conflict,” said Brigadier General Yoav Mordechai, a spokesman for the Israeli army. Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz accused Syrian President Bashar al-Assad of sending protesters across the border to deflect attention from domestic unrest. “The wave of anger that has been sweeping across Arab societies is clearly coming to Israel’s shores now,” said Yoram Meital, director of Ben Gurion University’s Herzog Center for Middle East Studies in Beersheva. “Today’s violence was unprecedented in the way that it happened on several borders at once, and I don’t think it’s over.”
  • Louisiana Flood Forces Choices on River Family, Threatens Ruin.
  • For the first time since July, Citigroup Inc.(C) is seen as more creditworthy than Goldman Sachs Group Inc(GS). Credit-default swaps protecting Citigroup debt from losses are trading at 124 basis points, 8 basis points below contracts on Goldman Sachs, according to data provider CMA.
  • Credit-default swaps tied to Indian banks are rising the most this month among the so-called BRIC nations as banks increased provisions, saying their customers will feel the strain of higher interest rates. Contracts tied to government-owned State Bank of India, which some investors perceive as a proxy for the nation, increased 9 basis points to 173 basis points, according to CMA.
  • Three U.S. Citizens Among Six Charged With Supporting Taliban in Pakistan. Two Americans of Pakistani descent face a court date tomorrow for allegedly providing “material support” to the Pakistani Taliban. A third U.S. citizen and three other people also were indicted in the case.
  • Yahoo's(YHOO) China Toehold Threatened by Rift With Alibaba. Yahoo! Inc.’s toehold in China is under threat by a widening rift with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., the e-commerce provider it partly owns and that analysts say may account for three-fourths of its market value.
  • Oil will fall in the second half as high prices erode demand, said Francisco Blanch, global head of commodity research for Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. "We are already seeing signs of demand destruction," Blanch said today. "If you look at airline passenger loads and utilization, they are starting to drop." Brent crude oil will average $122 a barrel this quarter before declining to $94 in the fourth, he said. "If we go to $130 or $140 a barrel, that would kill the Chinese economy as well as the rest of the world," Blanch said.
Wall Street Journal:
  • New Details in IMF Sex Case. The arrest of International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn on sexual-assault charges threatened to upend French politics and weaken the IMF's central role in resolving Europe's deepening debt crisis.
  • Selloff Scares Away Few Bulls. Hedge funds and other investors still have large bets that commodity prices will continue to rise, even after one of the steepest selloffs in years. Money managers cut their net-long position in crude-oil futures by 10% on the New York Mercantile Exchange during the week ended Tuesday, according to data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The decline left speculative investors holding 233,569 more long contracts that anticipate rising prices than short contracts wagering on a decline. A week earlier, these traders held 258,668 more long contracts. The data marked the beginning of an investor pullback from near-record bullish bets as investors became less enamored with commodities. As of this last report, for example, long positions in the oil market still outnumbered short positions by nearly six to one, even after the week through Tuesday saw crude futures for June delivery fall 6.5% to $103.88 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices settled Friday at $99.65. "Even though we had a huge price plunge, the more salient item is that we are still net long," said Jim Ritterbusch, head of energy-trading adviser Ritterbusch & Associates. "We still have a ways to go as far as forcing more speculative traders out of the long side" in the oil market.
  • Banks Woo Funds With Private Peeks. Some big investment banks offer their hedge-fund clients special access to senior deal makers and corporate executives, via dinners or other gatherings—a longstanding practice that is drawing fresh scrutiny.
  • WellPoint(WLP) Shakes Up Hospital Payments. WellPoint Inc. is raising the stakes for reimbursing about 1,500 hospitals across the country, cutting off annual payment increases if they fail to deliver on the big health insurer's definition of quality patient care.
  • Scandal in China Felt on Wall Street. The scandal of indicted Xinhua Finance founder Loretta Fredy Bush burned some of the sharpest minds on Wall Street, including one of the richest self-made women in the U.S. Last week, Ms. Bush was indicted by a U.S. grand jury on charges that she and two Xinhua directors committed conspiracy, mail fraud, and made false statements, enriching themselves by $50 million. It was the latest incident to highlight the sometimes opaque finances of publicly traded Chinese companies.
  • Rising Stars in Resurgent Hedge Funds. Financial News has named its picks for its top 40 under 40 list of up-and-coming men and women in the hedge-fund industry.
Bloomberg Businessweek:
  • Profit Estimates Fall Most Since 2009 in Europe as Bull Run Ages. Analysts are cutting European earnings forecasts by the most in almost two years just as equities in the region trail U.S. shares by the widest margin since the bull market began. Estimates for Stoxx Europe 600 Index profit growth dropped by as much as 4 percentage points this year, including the biggest three-month reduction since September 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Should analysts’ lowest projections for 2011 prove correct, companies would earn about 24 billion euros ($34 billion) less than expected at the start of the year, the data show. Projections for earnings in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index have risen 4 points in 2011.
CNBC:
  • Huge Glencore IPO Brings Secretive Firm to Market. Swiss-based commodity trader Glencore is set to unveil the pricing of its mammoth $12 billion dual IPO in London and Hong Kong later this week, and in what will be be the biggest IPO of the year and the largest in the UK to date, its shares are expected to start regular trading on the London exchange on May 24 and in Hong Kong just one day later.
  • Japan Readies New Tactics for Fukushima After Setback. Japanese officials are readying a new approach to cooling reactors at the Fukushima nuclear plant after discovering an Olympic swimming pool-sized pond of radioactive water in the basement of a unit crippled by the March earthquake and tsunami. The discovery has forced officials to abandon their original plan to bring under control the No. 1 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi plant as they focus on how to deal with the rising pool that some experts see as a threat to groundwater and the Pacific coast.
IBD:
NY Times:
  • Cities Nationwide Heighten Vigilance on Terror. In large and midsize cities across the country, police chiefs and domestic security officials say they have drastically increased counterterrorism operations under the assumption that a “lone wolf” or a small group of terrorists will try to strike on American soil to avenge the killing of Osama bin Laden.
  • Money Troubles Take Personal Toll in Greece. A year after Greece received a bailout from Europe and the I.M.F., people’s anxiety has grown into deep despair.
Forbes:
  • ExxonMobil(XOM) CEO Says Oil Price Should Be $60 to $70 a Barrel. Rex Tillerson, the boss of ExxonMobil admitted last week that the price of oil–based purely on supply and demand- should be in the $60 to $70 a barrel range. The reason it’s above $100 a barrel, Tillerson explained, is due to the oil majors using futures contracts to lock in current high prices, and speculation that is engineered by the high-frequency trading of quantitative hedge funds.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
Seeking Alpha:
San Francisco Chronicle:
  • Social-Networking Sites Face New Privacy Battle. California could force Facebook and other social-networking sites to change their privacy protection policies under a first-of-its-kind proposal at the state Capitol that is opposed by much of the Internet industry. Under the proposal, SB242, social-networking sites would have to allow users to establish their privacy settings - like who could view their profile and what information would be public to everyone on the Internet - when they register to join the site instead of after they join. Sites would also have to set defaults to private so that users would choose which information is public.
Reuters:
  • Iraqi Drilling Firm Starts Work in Zubair Oilfield. State-run Iraqi Drilling Co has started working in the Zubair oil field under a $250 million contract to drill 23 new wells in the field, developed by Italy's ENI (ENI.MI: Quote), the head of the firm said on Sunday. Director Idrees al-Yassiri said the two-year contract also included overhauling 63 old wells in Zubair. "We have started executing the contract awarded to us by ENI ... The total expected production after completing the project will be more than 250,000 barrels per day from these wells," Yassiri said during a trip to Zubair oilfield.
  • IMF Has Doubts Over More Credit for Greece - Paper. The International Monetary Fund has considerable doubts whether heavily indebted Greece should be provided with further credit, newspaper die Welt reported, citing several senior EU diplomats. If the IMF chose not to give a green light to the disbursement of the next 12 billion euro tranche of aid in June, the European Union would take over the whole bill, die Welt reported, without giving more details of its sources.
  • Eurozone to Back Portugal Aid, With New Caveats. Euro zone finance ministers are likely to back a bailout package for Portugal on Monday, with new conditions set by Finland, in talks overshadowed by charges against IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn for attempted rape.
Financial Times:
  • US Car Loan Providers Move Into Subprime. North American car loan providers have stepped up sharply their exposure to risky subprime buyers as economic conditions improve and lenders seek better profit margins. According to CNW, an Oregon-based market research firm, the credit score of new-car buyers reached a five-year low in early May. Buyers with scores below 670 on the widely used Fico scale – which ranges from 300 to 850 – made up 14.5 per cent of the total.
BBC:
  • North Korea and Iran 'Sharing Ballistic Missile Technology'. North Korea and Iran appear to have been exchanging ballistic missile technology in violation of sanctions, a leaked UN report shows. The report, obtained by Reuters, said regular transfers had been taking place through "a neighbouring third country", named by diplomats as China.
International Financial Review:
  • What Are CDS Really Worth? It’s a question that politicians have frequently asked over the past couple of years when lambasting the credit default swap market. Now, as rumours abound that Greece will look to avoid triggering CDS when restructuring its debt, even some of the instrument’s most fervent supporters are questioning its value. Christopher Whittall reports. Senior derivatives users, including a member of the board at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, have warned that the intrinsic value of credit default swaps could be severely compromised if Greece restructured its debt without triggering a credit event. As a consensus has grown among market participants that authorities will look to avoid triggering CDS when restructuring Greek bonds, market participants have been scrambling to understand the potential ramifications of such a development, with many fearing the worst.
Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung:
  • German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said he will examine the report being prepared for June on Greece's debt-tackling progress "especially closely." Schaeuble said that private creditors should participate in future euro area bailouts within the framework of the European Stability Mechanism.
Der Tagesspiegel:
  • European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark said that further aid for Greece should be conditional on the country "making more consolidation efforts," citing an interview to be published Monday.
Bild am Sonntag:
  • The percentage of Germans whose trust in the single European currency is "very low" or "quite low" has increased by 4 percent since December to 58%.
  • European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said "there is no crisis of the euro" and that the ECB would deliver price stability, in an editorial published today.
  • A restructuring of Greece's debt mustn't be "excluded" if the current adjustment measures don't work, citing German opposition leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Private investors should also bear the cost of the financial crisis, Steinmeier said.
Xinhua:
  • Egg prices have risen 24% in China from a year earlier, citing its own monitoring system. Prices are up 5.2% since April 18, according to the report, which was posted on the central government's website.
  • Pork prices in China on May 14 had increased 44% from a year earlier due to tight supplies. Pork prices on that day had increased more than 50% from a year earlier in the provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, Anhui, Hunan and Sichuan.
Shanghai Securities News:
  • China's inflation won't recede soon and the government will probably continue to tighten monetary and fiscal policies, citing its interview with John Lipsky, the first deputy managing director of the IMF.
  • China still faces large inflationary pressures and consumer prices haven't peaked, citing Yu Bin, director general of the macroeconomic research department of the State Council's development research center. China's economic growth also faces a slowdown, Yu said.
Caijing:
  • Financial crisis is "inevitable" for developing countries in the next five to 10 years, citing China central bank adviser Li Daokui. Developing countries like India and Brazil face fiscal deficits and problems that will emerge eventually, citing Li.
Financial News:
  • China's unchanging interest rate margin threatens the financial system's safety and affects the effectiveness of regulation, citing Wang Junshou, a deputy head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission's Tianjin branch.
Mainichi:
  • More than 200 North Korean engineers are living in Iran to help the country develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, citing a person familiar with the matter.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
  • Made positive comments on (SD).
  • Made negative comments on (BBBB).
Citigroup:
  • Reiterated Buy on (RIG), target $90.
  • Reiterated Buy on (TEVA), target $67.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.25% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.0 +1.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 114.50 +1.0 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures -.40%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.30%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (LOW)/.36
  • (JCP)/.24
  • (URBN)/.24
  • (GBE)/-.37
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for May is estimated to fall to 19.7 versus a reading of 21.7 in April.
9:00 am EST'
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for March are estimated at $32.6 Billion versus $26.9 Billion in February.
10:00 am EST
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for May is estimated to rise to 17 versus a reading of 16 in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • (HLF) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 3-Month/6-Month Treasury Bills Auctions, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, (GFIG) investor day and the (TEX) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.