Friday, May 20, 2011

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth (-.56%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +.85% 2) Homebuilders +.57% 3) Gold & Silver +.49%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RNOW, CRM, NG, STEC, BP, RMBS, KNXA, TRGT, RRGB, ACOR, STEC, FINL, ASPS, AKAM, HIBB, ZUMZ, WBMD, SFSF, WRLD, GILD, VRUS, NXPI, BKS, FL and APC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GFI 2) ARO 3) CRM 4) BRCD 5) MOTR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ZUMZ 2) DLTR 3) CRM 4) SPLS 5) ACOR
Charts:

Friday Watch


Evening Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • Strauss-Kahn Granted $1 Million Bail Pending Trial. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the former International Monetary Fund chief charged with sexually assaulting and attempting to rape a hotel housekeeper, may be spending his last night in jail on Rikers Island after a judge said he can go free on bail while awaiting trial. Strauss-Kahn, 62, who was granted bail yesterday after his fifth night in custody, will be released when he meets the requirements set by the court, said William Taylor, his lawyer. Taylor said he thought Strauss-Kahn may be able to leave the prison today. The bail conditions imposed by New York state Supreme Court Justice Michael Obus include posting $1 million in cash and a $5 million insurance bond secured by his house. He must wear an electronic monitor and have an armed guard at all times. He won’t be able to leave his residence except for legal, medical and religious travel.
  • Bank of Japan Refrains From Adding Stimulus. The Bank of Japan’s policy board unanimously voted to maintain monetary policy even after a report yesterday showed the country slipped into a recession following a record earthquake. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his eight colleagues decided to maintain a 30-trillion yen ($370 billion) credit program and a 10-trillion yen asset-purchase fund that represent the bank’s main policy tools. Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura dropped his call made last month to expand asset buys to provide more stimulus. The key overnight rate was kept at zero to 0.1 percent.
  • Patriot Act to Be Extended to 2015 in Congressional Accord. Congressional leaders reached agreement on extending the USA Patriot Act until June 1, 2015, providing law enforcement continued powers to track suspected terrorists that include the use of roving wiretaps. The Senate will move the legislation on May 23 under a timetable Senate Majority Harry Reid established late today, and a spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner said he plans to have a House vote on it before the law expires May 27. “The speaker supports this common-sense proposal because this law has been crucial to detecting and disrupting terrorist plots and protecting the American people,” said Boehner spokesman Michael Steel.
  • Liberty Media Offers $1 Billion for Barnes & Noble. Barnes & Noble Inc. (BKS), the U.S. bookstore chain that began exploring a possible sale last year, said it received an offer from John Malone’s Liberty Media to buy the company for about $1 billion in cash. Liberty Media offered $17 a share, a 20 percent premium to the closing price today, the company said in a statement. A special committee of the Barnes & Noble board will evaluate the proposal, which is subject to reaching a definitive purchase agreement, shareholder and regulatory approvals.
  • Iron Ore 'Bubble' Looms, Will Lower Price. The iron ore market has risen to “bubble” levels that will burst as new mines create oversupply of the steelmaking raw material, according to Baosteel Group Corp., China’s second-biggest mill. “There is a bubble in this market, many are gambling,” making acquisitions and investment expensive, Chairman Xu Lejiang said in an interview in Shanghai, without saying when prices would drop. “Everyone who has money is rushing in to invest in iron ore.” Vale SA (VALE3), Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the three biggest suppliers, plan to spend $45 billion on mines. Macquarie Group Ltd. predicts prices will average about half current levels after 2014 as demand growth in China, the world’s biggest buyer, slows. “The reason the big three keep spending is that they probably think growth in India, Brazil, Russia and South Africa will be sustained, and also because they believe the return on their input would beat those blind investments” by smaller rivals, Xu said. The biggest losers from the new mines may be the speculative companies that haven’t yet started production and their investors, Xu said.
  • Emerging Equity Funds Post First Outflows in Eight Weeks. Emerging-market equity funds reported the first net withdrawals in eight weeks as the strengthening dollar and weakening commodity prices sapped demand for riskier assets, Citigroup Inc. said. Funds investing in developing nations reported outflows of $1.6 billion for the week ended May 18, Citigroup analysts led by Markus Rosgen wrote in a report today, citing data compiled by EPFR Global. “U.S. dollar strength and commodity weakness amidst concerns with Greek debt restructuring has probably led to investor risk aversion and thus selling in emerging-market equities as a risk asset,” the analysts wrote.
  • Food Inflation in India to Climb on Labor, Energy Costs, Commission Says. Food-price inflation in India, Asia’s third-largest economy, may accelerate in the second half as farmers are paying 20 percent more to grow crops, according to the commission that helps set minimum farm-product prices. “The cost of production is going up very fast,” Ashok Gulati, chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “The labor cost has gone up dramatically in the past one year and energy costs are also going up.” Inflation in India has been above 8 percent for 16 months, with the wholesale-price index increasing 8.66 percent in April. Farm-product wholesale prices rose 7.47 percent in the week to May 7 from a year earlier, the trade ministry said yesterday.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Obama's Israel Surprise. President Barack Obama, seeking to get ahead of historic changes rolling through the Middle East, promised support for democratic uprisings in the Arab world and called for the first time to begin negotiations for a Palestinian state based on Israel's pre-1967 borders. Mr. Obama, in a wide-ranging speech on the Mideast, stressed to a global audience—the speech was broadcast in English, Arabic and Farsi. With grievances deep and ideological lines drawn decades ago, some in the Mideast, including Israel's prime minister, said Mr. Obama went too far; some pro-Israel U.S. lawmakers agreed. Others, from Palestinians to Arab diplomats, said he didn't go far enough.
  • Spain Vote Threatens to Uncover Debt. Weekend elections that threaten to drive Spain's ruling Socialist party from power in several regions and cities also promise a potentially nasty surprise: the revelation of piles of undisclosed debt in local governments that could undercut the country's drive to avoid an international bailout. Five months ago, a government change in Spain's Catalonia region revealed a budget deficit more than twice as big as previously reported. Now, a growing chorus of economists, local politicians and business leaders say that new governments are likely to discover, as Catalonia did, piles of "hidden debt" owed to health clinics and other suppliers.
  • Goldman(GS) Braces for Federal Subpoenas. Bank Expects a Demand for Mortgage Documents; Move Would Follow Senate Subcommittee's Report. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executives expect to receive subpoenas soon from U.S. prosecutors seeking more information about the securities firm's mortgage-related business, according to people familiar with the situation. Officials at the New York company believe the Justice Department will demand certain documents and other information, possibly within days, these people said.
  • LinkedIn IPO Soars, Feeding Web Boom.
CNBC:
Business Insider:
  • You Need to Be Watching What's Developing In Spain Right Now. (video) The center of the movement is very much Puerta del Sol, where protesters are now camping out overnight just like they did in Tahrir Square in Egypt. The protesters claim they will stay in the square until after regional elections this Sunday, according to Der Spiegel. The protest movement has been declared illegal by the government, over fears it may influence the result of the elections. The traditional media is allegedly under-covering the story.
  • Bubble? These China Stocks Got DESTROYED Today.
IBD:
Forbes:
  • Obama Administration Grants $737 Million for a 24/7 Solar Power Plant. The Obama administration on Thursday offered Santa Monica solar startup SolarReserve a $737 million loan guarantee to build a 110-megawatt solar thermal power plant in Nevada that can generate electricity 24 hours a day. That’s the holy grail for intermittent sources of carbon-free energy such as solar and wind and the SolarReserve loan guarantee is a sign that the United States Department of Energy is willing to gamble on a technology untested on a commercial scale.
  • A Trial Balloon That Could Deflate The Muni Market Even Further. The trial balloons unleashed by Congress have a lot of investors scratching their heads as to the ramifications for municipal bonds and Master Limited Partnerships. With the utmost simplicity, if the Wyden-Coats Bipartisan Tax Fairness and Simplification Act of 2011 gains momentum, the bill will eliminate the tax exempt interest on all new municipal bonds issued after 2011. However, it will instead provide a 25% tax credit on the interest payments of the bonds. So, what happens to the old munis issued before December 31, 2011 if this bill passes?
NY Times:
  • Chinese Student Takes Aim, Literally, at Internet Regulator. The authorities are seeking a college student who sneaked into a lecture hall at one of China’s most prestigious universities on Thursday and tossed eggs and shoes at a computer scientist both lionized and reviled as the architect of China’s strict Internet controls.
  • Europe and Emerging Nations Vie to Fill I.M.F. Job. European officials moved quickly to assert their claim over the leadership of the International Monetary Fund on Thursday, suggesting a serious challenge is being mounted by emerging economic powers like China and India that believe the time has come to break Europe’s historic grip on the post. Nations like Brazil want a more open process that does not see the top position at the I.M.F. granted to a European, as has been the convention since the fund was founded 65 years ago. They hope instead to put forth a credible candidate from the emerging world to reflect its growing economic clout.
  • At I.M.F., Men on Prowl and Women on Guard. It is an international island in the midst of the American capital, a sharp-elbowed place ruled by alpha male economists. The days are long, and employees are regularly pressed together for weeks on end during overseas “missions.” It is a climate in which romances often flourish — and lines are sometimes crossed. Some women avoid wearing skirts for fear of attracting unwanted attention. Others trade whispered tips about overly forward bosses. A 2008 internal review found few restraints on the conduct of senior managers, concluding that “the absence of public ethics scandals seems to be more a consequence of luck than good planning and action.” This is life at the International Monetary Fund, the lender of last resort for governments that need money and, under the leadership of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, an emerging force in the regulation of the global economy.
  • FrontPoint to Shut Most Funds After Insider Charges. FrontPoint Partners, once a multibillion-dollar hedge fund before it was battered by allegations of insider trading, will shut down most of its funds by the end of the month.
Google Blog:
  • Making Financial Comparisons Easy With Google(G))G) Advisor. Financial decisions may be some of the most difficult decisions we face—whether it’s finding the right credit card or understanding the impact of paying an extra point on a mortgage. And these days, it seems like we have more financial options than ever. To help solve these problems, we began testing a mortgage comparison tool in 2009 and have added other financial products such as credit cards, CDs, checking, and savings accounts. Today, we’re rolling these tools into one place: Google Advisor, a site designed to help you quickly find relevant financial products from many providers and compare them side-by-side.
Real Clear Politics:
  • Running From Obama's Health Care Law. Hear that? It's the escalating cry of American employers and workers trying to hold on to their health care benefits in the age of stifling Obama health insurance mandates: Gangway! Gangway! Save me! Waive me! Obamacare refugees first began beating down the exit doors in October 2010. As I've documented since last fall, waiver-mania started with McDonald's and Jack in the Box; spread to Dish Networks, hair salon chain Regis Corp and resort giant Universal Orlando; took hold among every major Big Labor organization from the AFL-CIO to the CWA to the SEIU; roped in the nationalized health care promoters at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (whose board of trustees includes health care czar Nancy Ann DeParle); and is now gripping entire states (Maine, New Hampshire and Nevada all recently got in on the act).
Reuters:
China Securities Journal:
  • Beijing may start a property tax as early as the second half of this year, citing a person familiar with the situation.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of Note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 +.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 113.50 -1.0 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures unch.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (ANN)/.48
  • (DCI)/.72
  • (HIBB)/.67
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • (FAST) 2-for-1
  • (KRO) 2-for-1
  • (MOH) 3-for-2
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Goldman Sachs(GS) Insurance Symposium and the (BGCP) analyst conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Falling Food/Energy Prices, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Earnings Optimism


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 15.92 -1.91%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 -16.13%
  • Total Put/Call .97 unch.
  • NYSE Arms 1.26 +30.23%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.74 -1.15%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.0 +1.88%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 180.50 +.65%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 203.93 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 22.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1 bp
  • Yield Curve 264.0 +2 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $175.30/Metric Tonne -.34%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -49.0 -5.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31% -4 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +5 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my Retail and Tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 maintains recent gains despite eurozone debt worries, emerging markets inflation fears, rising Mideast unrest and global growth concerns. On the positive side, Road & Rail, Airline, Tobacco, Restaurant, Telecom and Software shares are especially strong, rising more than +.50%. Cyclicals are outperforming, with the Transports surging +1.08% back near their multi-year high. Oil is falling -1.14%, the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is down -1.1% and Lumber is gaining +2.63%. The US Muni CDS Index is falling -2.61% to 119.79 bps and the Saudi sovereign cds is falling -4.6% to 107.24 bps. The AAII % Bulls fell to 26.7 this week, while the % Bears rose to 41.3, which is a big positive. On the negative side, Coal, Steel and Semi shares are under pressure, falling more than -1.0%. The US price for a gallon of gas is falling -.02/gallon today to $3.91/gallon. It is up .77/gallon in 92 days. The Italy sovereign cds is gaining +2.11%, the UK sovereign cds is rising +2.07% to 57.67 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is rising +2.67% to 140.64 bps, the Japan sovereign cds is rising +2.44% to 83.92 bps and the US sovereign cds is rising +3.1% to 47.18 bps. Brazil's Bovespa is falling another -.78% today and is down -9.96% ytd. Food and energy price declines today are noteworthy given the bounce in the euro. US stocks remain extraordinarily resilient to developing headwinds. The tone of the equity market remains positive, however volume is still lackluster. I continue to believe US stocks can build on recent gains in the near-term after a brief pause. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on technical buying, short-covering, bargain-hunting, buyout speculation, falling food/energy prices and earnings optimism.

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • LinkedIn(LNKD) Surges in First Day of Trading. LinkedIn Corp., the largest professional-networking website, more than doubled in the first day of trading after its initial public offering. The stock surged as much as $77.70 to $122.70 and traded at $108.70 at 12:25 p.m. on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol LNKD. LinkedIn sold 7.84 million shares at $45 each, the Mountain View, California company said in a statement yesterday. At $100 a share, LinkedIn is worth about $9.45 billion, or 25 times 2011 revenue, assuming first-quarter sales are matched over the next three quarters. Facebook, the world’s largest social-networking site, would be valued at about $100 billion using the same multiple.
  • Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall More Than Forecast to 409,000, Reversing Surge. Fewer Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, making it more likely that the surge in April was caused by temporary events rather than a deterioration in the labor market. Jobless claims declined by 29,000 to 409,000 in the week ended May 14, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 420,000. The four- week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, rose to 439,000 last week from 437,750. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, held at 3 percent.
  • Existing-Home Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall. Sales of existing U.S. homes unexpectedly declined, manufacturing in the Philadelphia region slowed and consumer confidence dropped, pointing to an economy that is struggling to regain momentum following the surge in energy costs. Purchases of existing homes decreased 0.8 percent to a 5.05 million annual pace in April, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index fell in May to the weakest reading in seven months, and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index slumped to a nine-month low, other reports showed.
  • Global Company Earnings to Grow Faster-Than-Estimated 18%, Citigroup Says. Global per-share earnings will rise 18 percent this year, faster than an earlier forecast, amid stronger revenue growth and sustained margins, according to Citigroup Inc. Earnings per share, or EPS, are estimated to increase 11 percent in 2012 and 9 percent in 2013, analysts led by Robert Buckland, Citigroup’s chief global strategist, wrote in a report yesterday. The brokerage had predicted in September earnings- per-share growth of 12 percent this year. The MSCI All Country World Index may end the year at 380, higher than an earlier forecast of 360, the analysts said. The MSCI index rose 0.2 percent to 344.60 as of 12:02 p.m. in Singapore. The index has jumped 21 percent in the past 12 months and is valued at 12.6 times estimated profits, compared with the average of 13.8 times over the last four years. “Companies are generating faster revenue growth than we originally expected,” Buckland said in the report. “In addition, cautious cost management means that current margins are at least sustainable for now.”
  • Obama Speaks as Arab World Questions Whether It Should Listen. When President Barack Obama outlines his vision of U.S. policy in the Middle East today, his challenge will be to get people in the region to care. The excitement generated by Obama’s call two years ago for a “new beginning” in U.S.-Arab relations evaporated as people waited for changes that haven’t come, said Robert Danin of the Council on Foreign Relations and others who study the region. As protests have swept the Arab world, toppling some leaders and challenging others, U.S. influence has been diminished by a response seen as cautious and inconsistent, Danin and other analysts said. And the U.S. has suffered some public diplomatic setbacks in dealing with Bahrain, Yemen, Syria, and the Israelis and Palestinians. “It’s not clear what the United States says right now matters to the people of the Middle East,” Danin said.
  • Libyan Rebel Official Says Death Toll After Revolt Reaches at Least 15,000. At least 15,000 people have been killed in Libya and NATO should step up attacks against Muammar Qaddafi’s forces besieging cities in the western mountain range, said Abdel Hafiz Ghoga, vice president of the rebels’ National Transitional Council.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Obama Endorses 1967 Borders for Israel. President Barack Obama called for Israelis and Palestinians to seek a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders in a speech that laid out a new vision for the Middle East, saying the U.S. is facing a historic opportunity to adapt to the rapid changes in a region.
  • IMF Succession Battle Mounts. The battle for the top job at the International Monetary Fund kicked into high gear Thursday, with Europeans staking their claim for the post and Asian and emerging nations arguing now is their time to lead the international institution.
MarketWatch:
  • 5 Money Moves One China Basher is Making Now. “China has a credit bubble that makes ours look like nothing,” said Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors and former chief investment strategist and head of Merrill Lynch’s Investment Strategy Group. “Gold,” he added, “is not in a bubble but it is about as close as you can get.”
CNBC.com:
Business Insider:
Real Clear Markets:
Reuters:
Financial Times Deutschland:
  • The European Central Bank may no longer accept Greek sovereign debt as collateral if loan maturities are extended, citing European officials.
Handelsblatt:
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel supports French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde as the new head of the IMF, citing people close to the government coalition.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value (+.05%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -1.74% 2) Semis -1.15% 3) Disk Drives -.71%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • TSL, NETL, SSYS, GPRO, ONXX, KLAC, CHBT, ENZN, WSM, AVEO, TDW, AAP, BIG and BKE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) YRCW 2) SPG 3) AMSC 4) CX 5) MEE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) STP 2) ATK 3) CTRN 4) TDW 5) GA
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth (+.01%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +.77% 2) Road & Rail +.67% 3) Restaurants +.58%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TOT, PHG, SI, CHU, IPGP, ETE, ELOS, PETM, JACK, DLTR, PETD, MAKO, BSFT, MERC, NTES, SFSF, VOLC, ZEUS, USTR, NDSN, IPSU, RAVN, SINA, TZOO, LCAPA, SXCI, TTC, BSFT, TMO, CEDC, FLO and PHG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TTWO 2) XHB 3) CBOE 4) CHRW 5) CMA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AFL 2) TIF 3) SCHN 4) KEY 5) PFCB
Charts: