Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Airlines +1.37% 2) Banks +1.35% 3) Steel +1.33%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- SNTA, MDRX, CRDN, TRW, NSM, GNRC, BTH and SRPT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) NSM 2) THLD 3) OCN 4) LVLT 5) CVC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) GILD 2) RIG 3) SYK 4) TRW 5)THC
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Euro Leaders Face October of Unrest After ECB’s September Rally. Europe
faces a month that may decide the success of the European Central
Bank’s bid to end the debt crisis as leaders navigate a tougher approach
from creditor countries, unrest in Spain and a looming report on
Greece. With the first of three summit meetings that European Union
President Herman Van Rompuy has called “crucial” taking place in
Brussels on Oct. 18-19, investor sentiment toward the euro area that
surged in September is on the wane. “People are beginning to look at
this in a more sober way” after the ECB bond-buying plan and a
German high-court decision releasing bailout financing spurred optimism
over the past month, Clemens Fuest, an economist at Oxford University’s
Said Business School, said in an interview yesterday. October, which marks the third anniversary of the debt crisis, will showcase euro-area leaders fighting out their differences.
The discord underscores the inadequacy so far of ECB President Mario
Draghi’s bid to calm the crisis through a pledge on sovereign-debt
purchases. Spain’s 10-year bonds fell last week, with the yield
rising 18 basis points, amid turmoil in the country. The euro, which
surged 4.4 percent in the first two weeks of September, had its second
weekly decline against the U.S. dollar last week, sliding 0.4 percent to
$1.2860 on Sept. 28. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, under
pressure to trigger the ECB’s new financial weaponry by requesting
assistance, pleaded over the weekend for national unity as he
hit out at nationalists for hampering crisis-fighting efforts.
- As Europe’s South Spirals, North Fiddles and Chaos Looms. Anyone who thought the euro crisis was coming under control might want to think again.
Only three weeks after the European Central Bank calmed markets with
its open-ended promise to support sovereign bonds and hold down
borrowing rates throughout the euro area, harsh reality is reasserting
itself: Greece, Spain and other struggling governments are being
compelled to stick to austerity
measures that are thwarting their economies, while Germany and
other core euro countries remain unwilling to do what’s needed
to prevent the euro area from breaking up.
- Spain to Borrow $267 Billion of Debt Amid Rescue Pressure. Spain
plans to borrow 207.2 billion
euros ($266.5 billion) next year, the Budget Ministry said
today, as pressure builds for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to
tap the European rescue fund instead of financial markets. Spain’s debt
will widen to 90.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2013 as the
state absorbs the cost of bailing out its banks, the power system and
euro-region partners Greece, Ireland and Portugal. This year’s budget deficit will be 7.4 percent of economic output, Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro said at a
press conference. Spain’s 6.3 percent target will be met because
it can exclude the cost of the bank rescue, he said. Spain’s borrowing plans may test investors’ willingness to
continue financing the government with the European Central Bank
waiting to buy the country’s debt should Rajoy agree to
conditions.
- Spain's
debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 85.3% this year as the government takes
power system debt, townhall bailout fund, rescues of Greece, Ireland,
Portugal and the bailout of the banking system onto its book, the Budget
Ministry said. Debt-to-GDP jumped 16.8 percentage points from last year.
- China’s Manufacturing Shrinks for 11th Month, HSBC PMI Shows. The purchasing managers’ index from HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) and
Markit Economics had a final reading of 47.9 for September,
compared with 47.6 in August and a preliminary level of 47.8
released Sept. 20. New export orders declined in September at
the fastest pace in 42 months and purchasing activity in
manufacturing fell for a fifth consecutive month. “The failure of both external and internal demand is
weighing heavily on Chinese manufacturing,” said Glenn Maguire,
principal at consultant Asia Sentry Advisory Pty and former
Societe Generale SA chief Asia economist. “External demand
recovery requires a stronger U.S., Japan and Europe - a highly
unlikely dynamic in the near term. Internal demand recovery
requires greater policy support.” Yesterday’s data also showed that manufacturing output and
input prices continued to decline and that employee numbers
decreased a seventh straight month. The HSBC and Markit
Economics PMI hasn’t had a monthly reading above 50, which would
indicate expansion, since October 2011.
- Japan Tankan Sentiment Worsens as Slowdown Hurts Exports.
Big Japanese manufacturers became more pessimistic as slowdowns in
China and Europe sapped export demand and pushed the nation closer to an
economic contraction. The quarterly Tankan index for large
manufacturers fell in September to minus 3 from minus 1, the fourth
negative reading, the Bank of Japan said today in Tokyo. The median
estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for minus 4. A
negative figure means pessimists outnumber optimists.
- Korea’s Exports Fall for 3rd Month as Global Demand Wane.
South Korea’s exports fell for a third month as Europe’s debt crisis
and gains in the won damped demand, keeping pressure on the central bank
to cut interest rates this month. Overseas shipments fell 1.8 percent in September from a year earlier, after a 6.2 percent decline in August, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said in a statement today. The
median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 12 economists was
for a 5.5 percent decline.
- Aleppo World Heritage Site in Flames in Syria Fighting. Syrian troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad fought with rebels
in the commercial hub of Aleppo in a deadly battle that set fire to an
ancient marketplace that was once a tourist attraction. Fighting
in the country’s largest city continued for the third day in what insurgents said would be a “decisive battle” to control Aleppo.
Rebels captured four neighborhoods, Al Jazeera reported, citing an
interview with a local activist. Syrian government troops killed 104
people yesterday across the country, including 61 in
or around the capital Damascus, the opposition Local Coordination
Committees said in an e-mailed statement. International efforts
to end the 18-month conflict have failed to stop the violence as rebels
continue the fight, begun in March 2011, to overthrow Assad. The
conflict has killed 30,000 people, according to estimates by the Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group.
- US military deaths in Afghanistan hit 2,000. The killing of an American serviceman in an exchange of fire
with allied Afghan soldiers pushed U.S. military deaths in the war to
2,000, a cold reminder of the perils that remain after an 11-year
conflict that now garners little public interest at home. The toll
has climbed steadily in recent months with a spate of attacks by Afghan
army and police — supposed allies — against American and NATO troops.
That has raised troubling questions about whether countries in the
U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan will achieve their aim of helping the
government in Kabul and its forces stand on their own after most foreign
troops depart in little more than two years.
- S&P 500 Posts Biggest Weekly Drop Since June on Economy. U.S.
stocks fell for the week, as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
posted its biggest drop since June, on concern Europe’s debt crisis is
worsening and stimulus measures may not be enough to boost economic
growth. The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index (S15HOME) slid 7.3
percent for the first drop in five weeks amid worse-than-expected
housing data. Technology stocks and commodity producers led declines
as investors sold shares of companies most tied to economic swings.
Apple (AAPL) Inc. posted its biggest drop since May after the release of
its iPhone 5. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) slid 6.2 percent as it cut its
earnings forecast (CAT). The S&P 500 erased 1.3 percent to
1,440.67, the biggest weekly slump since June 1.
- U.S. Urged by Advocacy Group to Weigh Drones’ Harm to Civilians. The Obama administration should
establish a special task force to evaluate the impact of covert drone
operations on civilian communities, a report from the Center for
Civilians in Conflict, a Washington-based advocacy group dedicated to
protecting civilians, urged.
Wall Street Journal:
- Odd Debt Rule to Lose Bite. Adjustments That Whipsaw Bank Earnings Won't Affect Bottom Lines in Future.
- GOP Again Slams Obama on Libyan Attacks. Allies of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney intensified
charges Sunday that the Obama administration botched its response to the
deadly Sept. 11 attacks on a U.S. diplomatic post and a second
facility in Libya, fueling domestic political tension around a
foreign-policy crisis. Just a month ahead of the presidential
election, Republicans accused Mr. Obama and his team of providing
muddled explanations of the events and intentionally playing down al
Qaeda's role in the attacks, which resulted in the deaths of U.S.
Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans.
- Mitt Romney: A New Course for the Middle East. Restore the three sinews of American influence: our economic strength, our military strength and the strength of our values.
Fox News:
-
The Myriad Broken Promises of Obamanomics. *The stimulus will prevent unemployment from rising above 8%, and will fall to 5.6% by 2012. *Solyndra, “leading the way toward a brighter and more prosperous future.” *”I’m committed to an all-of-the-above energy program." * Obamacare, which “…won’t add another dime to the deficit.” *”Health premiums will go down $2,500 by the end of my first term.” *Under Obamacare “you will keep your health insurance. This law will only make it more secure and more affordable.” *My goal is to strengthen and preserve Medicare.” *"Since my election…you're starting to see some restoration of America's standing in the world." *”If I don’t fix the economy in three years, then I’ll be a one-term president. " To which Mr. Romney can say: “Mr. President, this is one promise I’m determined to help you keep.”
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
CNBC:
Wall Street All-Stars:
New York Times:
- Payroll Tax Cut Unlikely to Survive Into Next Year.
Regardless of who wins the presidential election in November or what
compromises Congress strikes in the lame-duck session to keep the
economy from automatic tax increases and spending cuts, 160 million
American wage earners will probably see their tax bills jump after Jan.
1. That is when the temporary payroll tax holiday ends. Its expiration means less income in families’ pocketbooks — the tax increase would be about $95 billion in 2013 alone.
US News:
- Media Ignore Romney's Strength With Independents. Here's one statistic we don't hear much about: Gallup reports that 22 percent of swing-state voters say they may still change their minds. Those one-in-five who say they might change their minds
includes 10 percent who currently say they support Obama and 7 percent
who support Romney. In swing states that are within the margin of
error, that's huge. And we're not hearing much about that at all.
hedgetracker.com:
- Top 300 Hedge Funds see assets jump by 12% year-to-date – Big Gainers Lead the Charge. The Top 300 US Equity Hedge Funds have seen their assets increase by
more than $76 billion, or 12%, since the beginning of 2012. Overall,
the top U.S. equity hedge funds manage a combined $712 billion in equity
assets. On an absolute basis, 49 hedge fund managers on the list have
seen their US equity assets surge by more than $500 Million since the
beginning of the year. The biggest YTD gainers include Renaissance
Technologies Corporation, Citadel Investment Group, D.E. Shaw & Co
and Two Sigma Investments.
Reuters:
- U.S. group urges $2 trillion alternative to fiscal cliff "time bomb". The independent
watchdog group Taxpayers for Common Sense will unveil a $2 trillion
deficit-reduction proposal in hopes of averting an economic debacle at
year's end known as the fiscal cliff. On Monday, the group plans to
detail about 130 specific deficit-reduction steps the U.S. Congress
could take to replace across-the-board spending cuts of $1.2 trillion
that are scheduled to take effect on January 2. These would occur just
as tax increases for all income groups are due to kick in.
- Analysis: They're back! Yield hunt pushes funds into CLOs, CDOs. Fund managers are
increasingly eyeing riskier exotic assets, some of which haven't been
in fashion since the financial crisis, as yields on traditional
investments get close to rock bottom. In
particular, the Federal Reserve's latest move to juice the U.S. economy
by purchasing $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every
month is forcing some money managers who had previously been feasting on
those securities to get more creative. The only problem is they may be
getting out of their comfort zones and taking on too much risk. Returns from investments in
"junk" bonds, government guaranteed mortgage securities and even some
battered euro-zone debt are plunging in the wake of global central bank
policies intended to suppress borrowing costs. "I
would not be surprised if some managers are reaching outside of their
expertise for a few extra basis points," said Bonnie Baha, a portfolio
manager for DoubleLine's Global Developed Credit strategy. To
keep performance high, credit-focused managers are moving back into
some of the risky assets that got tarnished during the financial crisis
like collateralized loan obligations, or CLOs, securities cobbled
together from pools of corporate loans.
AFP:
-
Venezuela's Chavez would 'vote for Obama'. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says that if he were a US citizen, he
would vote for President Barack Obama in the November 6 presidential
election -- and if Obama were Venezuelan, he'd vote for Chavez. If Obama came from a working-class Caracas neighborhood, he would "vote for Chavez," the Venezuelan president claimed. "Obama
recently said something very rational and just: Venezuela is not a
threat to the interests of the United States," Chavez said, calling the
US president a "nice guy."
Financial Times:
Telegraph:
Die Welt:
- Merkel
to Propose Common EU Budget at October Summit. The proposal would
replace existing structural cohesion funds with a common budget to
enable aid to stricken member states, citing European Union sources. The
budget is the first priority for Chancellor Angela Merkel at Oct. 18-19
EU summit in Brussels. Funds could flow from national budgets and
transaction taxes. France and Spain may see the proposal as a diversion
tactic. Germany wants to end the debate over common euro bonds with the
proposal.
Der Spiegel:
- ECB
Acting Outside Mandate, Says Ex-Board Member Stark. Former European
Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark said the ECB is acting
beyond its mandate in its new bond-purchase program, citing an
interview. Stark said the conditionality attached to the bond-purchase
program has undermined the independence of the ECB's monetary policy.
La Vanguardia:
- Poll
Shows 55% of Catalans Back Independence. Opinion poll shows 55% support
for Catalan independence. Poll shows 84% backing for referendum on
independence. Poll shows 43% support for CiU party vs 38.4% won in 2010
regional elections.
Les Echos:
- France
to Propose EU4b-EU5b in Tax Increases Tomorrow. Proposed increases to
be disclosed include doubling levy on beer and raising tax on bank
salaries.
Nikkei:
- Japanese
domestic sales of new automobiles probably fell in September, the first
decline in the past 12 months, and are expected to fall through the
rest of the year.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (SCS), (AIG), (DLPH), (DVN) and (GS).
- Made negative comments on (OPK).
Night Trading
- Asian indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.50 -.5 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 115.25 +.5 basis point.
- FTSE-100 futures -.21%.
- S&P 500 futures -.40%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.41%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- ISM Manufacturing for September is estimated to rise to 49.8 versus 49.6 in August.
- ISM Prices Pad for September is estimated to rise to 55.8 versus 54.0 in August.
- Construction Spending for August is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.9% decline in July.
Upcoming Splits
- (PAA) 2-for-1
- (CTRX) 2-for-1
- (PZE) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Bernanke speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Williams speaking,
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Spain Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone
Unemployment, India Manufacturing PMI, Johnson Rice Energy Conference
and the (SIG) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian
indices are lower, weighed down by technology and financial
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and
to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net
long heading into the week.
U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE:
I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising
global growth fears, rising Eurozone debt angst, US "fiscal cliff"
concerns, increasing Mid-east unrest, high food/energy prices, more
shorting, earnings worries and technical selling. My intermediate-term
trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is
25% net long heading into the week.
S&P 500 1,440.67 -1.33%*
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-Day Change
Indices
- S&P 500 1,440.67 -1.33%
- DJIA 13,437.10 -1.05%
- NASDAQ 3,116.22 -2.0%
- Russell 2000 837.45 -2.11%
- Value Line Geometric(broad market) 359.58 -2.03%
- Russell 1000 Growth 670.30 -1.57%
- Russell 1000 Value 710.86 -1.16%
- Morgan Stanley Consumer 835.84 -.56%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 968.70 -2.98%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 684.40 -2.03%
- Transports 4,892.62 -.37%
- Utilities 475.75 +.93%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 81.48 -4.3%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 41.54 -.46%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,053.88 +.09%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 804.97 -.28%
- Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias 539.64 unch.
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 156,383 -.43%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 147.0 -22
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 37.8 +37.8%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 231,297 -13.42%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,555,863 -3.21%
- Total Put/Call .99 +23.75%
- OEX Put/Call .81 -17.35%
- ISE Sentiment 100.0 -7.41%
- NYSE Arms 1.69 +7.64%
- Volatility(VIX) 15.73 +12.52%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.83 -3.97%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.92 +.76%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,644.82 -1.41%
- Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.576 Trillion +.3%
- AAII % Bulls 36.1 -3.7%
- AAII % Bears 36.5 +7.9%
Futures Spot Prices
- CRB Index 309.30 +.10%
- Crude Oil 92.19 -.83%
- Reformulated Gasoline 292.01 +3.26%
- Natural Gas 3.32 +7.91%
- Heating Oil 315.92 +.74%
- Gold 1,773.90 -.05%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 219.34 +.28%
- Copper 375.80 -.33%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 361.33 USD/Ton -.19%
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.20 USD/Ton -2.07%
- Lumber 279.0 +.50%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,696.99 -.03%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.8% +110 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.5981 +8.2%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 111.98 +.07%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.8 -14.8 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 56.0% chance of no change, 44.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 10/24
- US Dollar Index 79.94 +.64%
- Yield Curve 140.0 -9 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.63% -12 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.787 Trillion -.61%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.04 +8.61%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 205.0 +.88%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 147.87 +11.86%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 215.44 +2.15%
- Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 94.0 +6.81%
- Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 464.02 -2.07%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 415.0 +4 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42% -7 basis points
- TED Spread 26.75 unch.
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 +.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.25 -5.75 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 100.07 +4.09%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 203.53 +11.4%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 223.28 +4.53%
- CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 97.0 +1 basis point
- M1 Money Supply $2.371 Trillion -1.81%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 990.10 -1.80%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 374,00 -3,800
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.6% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.40% -9 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 875.10 +2.8%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -39.6 +1.2 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +2.40% -10 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.79/gallon -.04/gallon
- U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 25.0% above normal
- Baltic Dry Index 744.0 -3.88%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,227.03 -.66%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50-18.2%
- Rail Freight Carloads 250,253 -.58%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
- Gaming +1.91%
- Utilities +.93%
- Computer Services +.51%
- Hospitals +.07%
- Foods -.17%
Lagging Sectors
- Networking -4.25%
- Steel -4.28%
- Oil Service -4.55%
- Coal -5.28%
- Homebuilding -6.02%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (15)
- ELOQ, EPOC, AM, KBH, THR, NEOG, WCBO, MDCA, MRLN, CSU, VPHM, MTN, NC, DORM and LBTYA
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (13)
- AI, PNNT, USNA, WWD, AXE, SNX, CPHD, FTNT, FWRD, FUL, JBL, VVUS and BTH
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Today's Market Take:
Broad Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Volume: Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- VIX 15.57 +4.92%
- ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -24.22%
- Total Put/Call .99 +22.22%
- NYSE Arms 1.86 +191.18%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 99.21 bps +.67%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 203.45 bps +1.15%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 150.03 +2.63%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 224.09 -.59%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 13.50 -1.0 basis point
- TED Spread 26.75 -.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.25 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
- Yield Curve 139.0 +1 basis point
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $104.20/Metric Tonne unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.8 -3.0 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 -2 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -25 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my Biotech sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long