Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.42%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +.08% 2) Retail -.03% 3) Biotech -.08%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AM, TSLA, EBAY, TAP and GME

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) OKE 2) KMI 3) GME 4) SE 5) VRNG
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AM 2) RTN 3) MON 4) IPG 5) POT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Bank of Cyprus’s Customers May Lose as Much as 60% on Deposits. Cyprus may imposes losses of as much as 60 percent on Bank of Cyprus Plc accounts exceeding 100,000 euros ($128,000) as part of an aid deal to stop the country from going bankrupt. Customers will have 37.5 percent of their deposits above this amount converted into shares with full voting rights and access to any future Bank of Cyprus dividend, the Nicosia-based central bank said in an e-mailed statement. A further 22.5 percent will be temporarily withheld to ensure the lender meets the terms of its recapitalization, as agreed under Cyprus’s loan agreement with international creditors, the central bank said.

• Euro Drops After Monthly Drop on Weak Economic Recovery. The euro weakened following a decline last month as economic data signal the 17-nation region is struggling to recover, damping demand for the currency. The euro fell versus most of its 16 major counterparts ahead of a report tomorrow that may show unemployment in the bloc climbed to a record in February, two days before European Central Bank officials meet to set interest rates. The yen strengthened, after last month capping its longest string of losses in 12 years, as a drop in Asian stocks spurred demand for safer assets. The Australian dollar slid after gains in Chinese manufacturing missed estimates.

• China’s Home Prices Increase Most in 26 Months, SouFun Says. China’s March new home prices posted the biggest gain in more than two years as buyers rushed into the market ahead of property curbs by local governments, driving real estate stocks higher. Prices climbed for the 10th month, rising 1.1 percent to 9,998 yuan ($1,610) per square meter (10.76 square feet) from February, SouFun Holdings Ltd. (SFUN), the country’s biggest real estate website owner, said in a statement today after a survey of 100 cities. That’s the biggest increase since January 2011.

• Beijing, Shanghai Add to Home Curbs as China Acts to Cool Market. China’s largest cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, tightened rules on home purchases after the nation asked local governments to step up efforts to cool the property market. Beijing, the capital, banned single-person households from buying more than one residence while Shanghai prohibited banks from giving credit to third-home buyers, according to the local administration websites. The two cities will also enforce a 20 percent tax on capital gains from property sales. “This will help calm people’s panic about home prices,” said Yi Xianrong, a Beijing-based researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, which advises the Cabinet.

• Kim Calls Nuclear Weapons Top Priority as Korea Tensions Climb. Kim Jong Un called nuclear weapons development one of North Korea’s top priorities as his country ratcheted up tensions by declaring a state of war with South Korea and reiterating threats to attack the U.S. Nuclear arms can “never be abandoned” nor “traded with billions of dollars,” Kim said yesterday at meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party Central Committee, the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported. North Korea’s rubber stamp parliament meets today to ratify his remarks. 

• Japan March Business Confidence Improves Less Than Estimated. Confidence among big Japanese manufacturers improved by less than economists estimated, in a sign that the weaker yen is yet to boost conditions for the nation’s exporters. The quarterly Tankan (JNTSMFG) for large manufacturers rose to minus 8 in March from minus 12 in December, the Bank of Japan said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for minus 7. A negative figure means pessimists outnumber optimists.

• Rebar Slumps to Lowest Since December on China PMI, Inventories. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai declined to the lowest level in more than three months after a Chinese manufacturing indicator missed analysts’ estimates and inventories of the building material swelled. The contract for delivery in October dropped as much as 2 percent to 3,733 yuan ($601) a metric ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the lowest level since Dec. 14, and traded at 3,736 yuan at 10:36 a.m. local time. Futures lost 4.5 percent in the first quarter. 

• Copper Drops to 8-Month Low in Shanghai on China Manufacturing. Copper slumped for a fifth day in Shanghai to the lowest level since August as a key gauge of Chinese manufacturing missed estimates, stoking concern demand in the biggest consuming nation is slowing. Copper for delivery in July on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 1.9 percent to 53,800 yuan ($8,666) a metric ton, the lowest level since Aug. 3, before trading at 54,080 yuan by 10:14 a.m. local time. Futures for May delivery lost 1.3 percent to $3.3590 a pound on the Comex. The London Metal Exchange is closed today for a public holiday.

• Bullish Bets Rebound at Fastest Pace in Four Years: Commodities. Investors are boosting wagers on higher commodity prices at the fastest pace in almost four years, rebounding from the least bullish position since 2009, on signs that the U.S. is accelerating and Europe’s debt crisis is easing. Hedge funds and other large speculators increased net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 10 percent to 679,191 contracts in the week ended March 26, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The bets surged 67 percent in three weeks, the biggest advance since May 2009. Wagers on higher oil prices climbed the most this year, while those for cattle are at a six-week high.

• SAC Siege by U.S. Seen Slowing in Steinberg’s Indictment. SAC Capital Advisors LP may seem under siege by federal prosecutors, with the steady drumbeat of indictments over the past few years and the invariable 6 a.m. knock at the door as one employee after another meets agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s New York office.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Era of Fed Stimulus Wanes. Between U.S. stocks reaching highs and Treasury yields holding near all-time lows, one of these two contrary markets will eventually have to give. "We are getting closer to the end," John Brynjolfsson, managing director of global macro hedge fund Armored Wolf LLC, said of the Fed's stimulus efforts. "Discussion of tapering helps to make the exit less of a digital on-off decision, and should allow the Fed to more gradually wean the markets off its support."

Marketwatch.com:

• Why China wants to eat Apple(AAPL). Commentary: Handset standoff with China Mobile spurs spat.

• U.S. probing Panasonic over suspected bribery: WSJ.

Fox News:

• US sends F-22 jets to join South Korea drills. The United States has sent F-22 stealth fighter jets to South Korea to join Seoul forces in military drills as North Korea warns the Korean Peninsula has entered "a state of war." A senior U.S. official confirms to Fox News that the F-22 Raptors were deployed to Osan Air Base in South Korea from Japan on Sunday to support ongoing U.S.-South Korean military drills. 

• Survey: New York, California last in personal freedoms.

CNBC: 

• Italian President at Center of Storm as Deadlock Continues. Italy's 87-year-old President Giorgio Napolitano will face the greatest test of his career during his final weeks in office as he tries to end the standoff preventing a new government being formed more than a month after elections.

• Emerging Markets Dump Euro Reserves. The euro's challenge to the international status of the U.S. dollar has been set back a generation as new data shows developing countries dumping the European currency from their official reserves.

Zero Hedge: 

• "I Went To Sleep Friday A Rich Man, I Woke Up Poor".

• ECB Backs Dijsselbloem's Liquidation Policy "Template".

• The Chess Game Of Capital Controls.

• 25 Lessons From The Cyprus 'Deal'.

• Who's Next? Italy's Monte Paschi Admits To Billions In Deposit Outflows.

• Europe's Last Green Shoot Is Wilting.

• Cyprus Parliament President Says "No Future" Under Troika, Calls For "Iceland" Solution.

• Tom Hoenig: "This System Distorts The Market And Turns Appropriate Risk-Taking Into Recklessness".

• The Seven Broken Taboos Of The Cyprus Deal.

Business Insider: 

• Scary Derivatives Are Back In A Big Way On Wall Street.

• LIVE FROM CAIRO: Things Are Much Worse Than We Realized.

• The Euro Is Destroying Europe By Ripping It In Half.

• Why The Euro Is Doomed In 4 Steps.

• Meet The Influential German Professor Who Wants To Get Rid Of The Euro In Order To Save Europe.

• David Stockman Is Outraged — And A Lot Of Powerful People Won't Like What's In His New Book.

• LIVE: Thousands Of Companies Around The World Are Revealing The Truth About The Economy.

• We're In The Midst Of A 'Cash Is Trash' Bubble.

Wall Street All-Stars:

• Indicator Update: Economic Soft Patch Coming?

Reuters:

• Exxon(XOM) cleans up Arkansas oil spill; Keystone plan assailed. Exxon Mobil on Sunday continued cleanup of a pipeline spill that spewed thousands of barrels of heavy Canadian crude in Arkansas as opponents of oil sands development latched on to the incident to attack plans to build the Keystone XL line. 

• U.S. fracking helped kill off German solar firms -Bosch. Bosch, one of the world's largest auto parts suppliers, blames the U.S. fracking boom in shale gas for hurting demand for energy-efficient green technologies, its chairman told a German newspaper.

El Pais:

• Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is preparing a new financing model for autonomous region of Catalonia to stem wave of separatism. New offer for Catalonia would alert leaders of other autonomous communities who would require same treatment.

Le Journal du Dimanche:

• 70% of French people remain unconvinced that President Francois Hollande has a clear strategy to fight rising unemployment, according to an Ifop poll.

Yonhap News:

• South Korea to Strongly Respond to Any North Korea Provocation, South Korean President Park Geun Hye Says.

Sankei:

• Japan, U.S. to Hold Island-Recapturing Drill in June. Japan's Ground, Maritime and Air Self-Defense Force to join drills in California. First time for Maritime and Air SDFs to join similar exercise. Japan, U.S. to draft plan to defend disputed islands, VOA said

China Securities Journal:

• China Financial System Faces 'Large' Risks. Problems including high levels of corporate debt, shadow banking and property bubbles are worth concern, citing former People's Bank of China adviser Yu Yongding. Yu said local government financing vehicles may "deteriorate" again. China economic growth may be weaker than expected as a result of tightening monetary policy and M2 growth target of 13%, Yu said.

• China will manage property demand and supply and continue curbs on speculation, citing Qin Hong, director of policy research at the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Bullish commentary on (STM), (RT), (T), (WLP), (STX), (WU) and (ETN).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.50 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 97.5 +2.25 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures unch.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CALM)/1.40 

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending for March is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -2.1% decline in February.

• ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to fall to 54.0 versus 54.2 in February.

• ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus 61.5 in February. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The RBA rate decision and Final Markit US PMI for March could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by Reuters (video). 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on global growth fears, Mideast unrest, rising Asia tensions, more Eurozone debt angst, profit-taking, technical selling and more shorting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,569.19 +1.51%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,569.19 +1.51%

• DJIA 14,578.54 +1.09%

• NASDAQ 3,267.52 +1.39%

• Russell 2000 951.54 +.81%

• Value Line Geometric(broad market) 408.58 +.89%

• Russell 1000 Growth 719.95 +1.78%

• Russell 1000 Value 800.15 +1.27%

• Morgan Stanley Consumer 973.69 +2.24%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,171.41 +.87%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 737.07 +1.44%

• Transports 6,255.33 +2.26%

• Utilities 508.40 +2.42%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 90.45 -2.91%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.63 +.99%

• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,142.17 +1.10%

• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 846.04 -.14%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 180,859 +1.19%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 740 +527

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 29.03 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 244,607 +9.34%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,693,684 +2.81%

• Total Put/Call .89 +1.14%

• OEX Put/Call 2.53 +48.82%

• ISE Sentiment 95.0 +1.06%

• NYSE Arms .85 -53.30%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.70 -9.22%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.79 +1.10%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.18 -4.57%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,431.89 +.33%

• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.629 Trillion +.1%

• AAII % Bulls 38.4 -1.39%

• AAII % Bears 28.6 -14.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 296.39 +.79%

• Crude Oil 97.23 +3.66%

• Reformulated Gasoline 311.06 +2.17%

• Natural Gas 4.02 +2.21%

• Heating Oil 304.71 +6.12%

• Gold 1,595.70 -.73%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 201.06 -.73%

• Copper 340.70 -1.79%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 341.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.30 USD/Ton +1.5%

• Lumber 391.20 +2.11%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,502.98 -2.94%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 6.6% +20 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0787 -15.19%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 114.65 +.24%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.90 -10.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 56.0% chance of no change, 44.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 5/1

• US Dollar Index 82.98 +.73%

• Yield Curve 160.0 -7 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.85% -8 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.185 Trillion -.13%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.70 -1.59%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 139.0 +6.07%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 105.05 +4.06%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 212.54 +2.52%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 124.57 +2.70%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 478.86 -.47%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 413.0 +12 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.52% -2 basis points

• TED Spread 21.25 -.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.25 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 +1.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 90.74 +1.24%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 194.35 +10.20%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 265.48 +3.75%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 135.0 +1.0 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.421 Trillion unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,021.60 +.50%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 343,000 +3,200

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.4% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.57% +3 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 823.70 +7.6%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -34.4 -.5 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.8% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $3.64/gallon -.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 910.0 -2.15%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,107.55 unch.

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 235,641 +2.99%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.78%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.61%

Leading Sectors

• Biotech +3.3%

• Hospitals +2.9%

• Foods +2.8%

• Medical Equipment +2.8%

• Semis +2.7%

Lagging Sectors

• Disk Drives -1.0% 

• I-Banking -1.0%

• Gold & Silver -1.4%

• Homebuilders -1.5%

• Alt Energy -2.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)

• RPRX, ECYT, LNDC, MFRM, XONE, SBY, FRGI, SONC and LOGM

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)

• ASH, FUL, FIVE, HMST, USG, MGLN, TUMI and TIBX

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.32%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Tankers +1.39% 2) Biotech +1.37% 3) Road & Rail +.89% 
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RPRX, SBY, BIIB, FINL, DECK, CBI and XONE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TER 2) OKE 3) BIIB 4) FL 5) MDCO
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NOC 2) CHK 3) MON 4) LCC 5) BIIB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume