Friday, April 19, 2013

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 1,555.25 -2.11%
  • DJIA 14,547.50 -2.14%
  • NASDAQ 3,206.05 -2.70%
  • Russell 2000 912.50 -3.22%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 22.56 -4.57%
  • Value Line Geometric(broad market) 395.52 -3.06%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 710.52 -2.11%
  • Russell 1000 Value 791.49 -2.18%
  • Morgan Stanley Consumer 998.27 +.51%
  • Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,118.88 -3.81%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 700.76 -4.45%
  • Transports 6,034.14 -1.78%
  • Utilities 528.03 +.90%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 88.72 -2.53%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 41.74 -1.13%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,089.74 -.90%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 939.68 -.37%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 179,250 -1.65%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -324.0 -1,195
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 38.9 n/a
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 210,703 -5.68%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,764,368 -.22%
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 -3.51%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.03 -63.48%
  • ISE Sentiment 97.0 +73.21%
  • NYSE Arms .92 -32.61%
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.97 +24.13%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.01 +8.57%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.62 +4.1%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 11,561.46 -1.43%
  • Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.595 Trillion -1.0%
  • AAII % Bulls 26.9 +39.0%
  • AAII % Bears 48.2 -11.5%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 283.19 -1.40%
  • Crude Oil 88.01 -2.92%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 277.24 -.83%
  • Natural Gas 4.41 +3.47%
  • Heating Oil 278.76 -2.93%
  • Gold 1,395.60 -5.45%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 189.72 -4.10%
  • Copper 314.85 -5.52%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 368.0 USD/Ton unch. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 138.0 USD/Ton -2.13%
  • Lumber 360.60 -2.78%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,495.70 -.29%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 6.6% +40 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1488 +10.5%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 115.22 +.08%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.90 -12.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Mkts Economic Surprise Index -38.7 -1.0 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 54.0% chance of no change, 46.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 5/1
  • US Dollar Index 82.71 +.72%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.39 +.66%
  • Yield Curve 147.0 -2 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.70% -2 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.252 Trillion +2.11%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.62 +.35%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 125.0 +.81%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 98.03 +.80%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 201.50 +7.78%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 118.27 +1.42%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 74.0 -9.76%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 415.0 +13 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32% -12 basis points
  • TED Spread 23.0 +1.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.75 +1.0 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 84.03 +1.42%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 171.86 +2.57%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 240.05 +7.70%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 105.0 -5.5 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $2.441 Trillion -2.73%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,015.50 -.60%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 361,300 +3,300
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.4% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.41% -2 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 866.10 +4.84%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -29.2 +4.8 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +2.0% -90 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $3.51/gallon -.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 888.0 +1.49%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,108.27 -.32%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.50 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 241,987 +4.46%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -2.02%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -3.31%
Leading Sectors
  • Biotech +2.0%
  • Airlines +1.1%
  • Utilities +.9%
  • Drugs +.6%
  • Foods +.5%
Lagging Sectors
  • Construction -5.8% 
  • Steel -5.9%
  • Networking -8.1%
  • Computer Services -8.9%
  • Gold & Silver -11.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)
  • OSTK, THRX, ACOR, ANEN, PNFP, TZOO, LIFE, MRTN and NFP
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (25)
  • WBS, BERY, CACC, JNY, CLI, ALSN, IPCM, IMGN, RTI, SKS, PBY, SNDK, FLR, WDR, KDN, TXT, RGLD, ROSE, LAYN, NTGR, CCXI, BMI, UTEK, INWK and EOPN
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Earnings, Short-Covering, Biotech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Today's Market Take:

Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 14.89 -15.21%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 +1.09%
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 -5.17%
  • NYSE Arms .99 -6.69%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.72 -1.7%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 171.92 -2.06%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 98.35 -.50%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 240.11 -.37%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 -.25 bp
  • TED Spread 23.0 +.5 bp
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 +.25 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  • Yield Curve 147.0 +1 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $138.0/Metric Tonne -.43%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.9 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +6 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +349 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail, biotech and medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • U.K.’s Top Credit Grade Cut by Fitch on Economy, Fiscal Outlook. Britain lost its top credit grade at Fitch Ratings, which cited a weaker economic and fiscal outlook as it became the second company to cut the country’s rating within two months. Fitch lowered the U.K. to AA+ from AAA with a stable outlook, it said in a statement in London today. It cut its growth projection and forecast that debt would peak at 101 percent of gross domestic product in the fiscal year 2015-2016. “Despite the U.K.’s strong fiscal financing flexibility underpinned by its own currency with reserve-currency status and the long average maturity of public debt, the fiscal space to absorb further adverse economic and financial shocks is no longer consistent with an AAA rating,” Fitch said
  • Prodi’s Presidential Bid Vulnerable in Secret Ballot. Romano Prodi failed to win the Italian presidency in a parliamentary vote today as his wounded party was unable to maintain discipline and resistance from rival forces intensified. Prodi, the two-time ex-prime minister and former European Commission president, as defections left him more than 100 votes short of a majority in the parliamentary vote in Rome. It was the fourth inconclusive ballot since voting started yesterday and dealt Pier Luigi Bersani, head of the Democratic Party, another defeat in his bid to unlock the impasse.  
  • Weidmann Says ECB Would Only Cut Rates If Data Worsen. European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said the bank would only cut interest rates if economic data worsen. “We didn’t change interest rates at our last meeting as they are currently appropriate and in accordance with our assessment of economic developments, price stability and our monetary analysis,” Weidmann, who heads Germany’s Bundesbank, said today at a press conference in Washington. “Of course, we will reassess the adequacy of the rates if the data change.”
  • BofA(BAC) Sees ‘Impossible Trinity’ in Markets as Risks Underpriced. Commodities, stocks and bonds are sending conflicting signals on the health of the global economy, an “impossible trinity” that may end with a surge in market volatility, according to Bank of America Corp. The S&P GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials has retreated 10 percent in the past two months, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.4 percent and bond yields in emerging markets and so-called peripheral European nations declined. Commodities are signaling a slowdown in global growth, while stocks reflect expectations of strong U.S. consumer spending and credit markets anticipate greater demand from Japanese households for high-yielding assets, David Woo, the head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, wrote in a note dated yesterday. It’s unlikely all these markets will prove correct and investors are underestimating the risk of a “major re-alignment” of prices, Woo said. “Something will have to give,” Woo wrote.
  • SAP's(SAP) McDermott Sees Choppy Public Spending in U.S., China. SAP AG (SAP), the largest maker of business-management software, projected a difficult market for its government business amid cuts in U.S. federal spending and China’s transition to a new leadership. “It’s going to be choppy out there in the public sector,” co-Chief Executive Officer Bill McDermott said in a telephone interview today. “Chinese purchasing patterns have definitely slowed down.”
  • U.S. Hospitals Told to Be on Lookout for H7N9 Bird Flu. U.S. hospitals are being urged to head off a spread of the new H7N9 avian influenza by looking out for people exhibiting flu-like symptoms who have traveled to China or had contact with someone who has the illness.
  • Copper Falls to Lowest Since October 2011, Entering Bear Market. Copper slumped into a bear market in London on concern slowing economies from China to the U.S. will reduce demand as supply of the metal expands. Copper for delivery in three months fell 1.4 percent to $6,990 a metric ton by the close on the London Metal Exchange today. That was below the level of $6,992 marking a 20 percent drop from the February 2012 closing high, a common definition of a bear market.
  • GE(GE) Falls Most Since 2011 After Power Unit Saps Industrial Profit. General Electric Co. fell the most since 2011 after a first-quarter slide in its Power & Water business pulled total industrial earnings down 11 percent. Profit at GE’s manufacturing businesses fell to $2.94 billion as sales slid 5.7 percent to $22.7 billion, the company said in a statement. The decline was led by a 39 percent drop in earnings at the power and water unit, which makes products including gas-powered and wind turbines. “We planned for a continued challenging environment in Europe, but conditions weakened further,” Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt said in the statement, with manufacturing and service revenue in the region declining 17 percent.
  • Flu Experts Probe H7N9 Outbreak as Cases Double in a Week. Influenza specialists from around the world are converging on China to help authorities identify how people are catching the new H7N9 bird flu strain after the number of reported cases there doubled in the past week. China recorded its 88th H7N9 infection yesterday. Seventeen of the cases have been fatal and “several” patients are in critical condition, according to the World Health Organization. “That’s a fairly high mortality rate,” Michael O’Leary, the WHO’s China representative, told reporters in Beijing today. Less severe cases may have escaped detection, he said. “What we don’t know is the size of the iceberg under this tip.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Boston Gripped by High-Stakes Manhunt. Suspect Still at Large Is Identified as 19-Year-Old of Chechen Background; Older Brother Killed in Shootout. The Boston area remained on lockdown into the afternoon Friday as authorities conducted a manhunt for one of two brothers of Chechen background suspected in Monday's Boston Marathon bombings and a deadly showdown that began unfolding Thursday night. Authorities identified one suspect as 26-year-old Tamerlan Tsarnaev, who was killed in a confrontation with police in Watertown, Mass., according to a U.S. law-enforcement official. A manhunt was on for the second suspect, identified as Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, 19 years old. Both brothers were believed to be involved in the fatal shooting of a Massachusetts Institute of Technology campus police officer during Thursday night's chaotic series of events. Police warned residents that the at-large suspect was armed and dangerous. "We believe this to be a terrorist," said Boston Police Chief Ed Davis. "We believe this to be a man who's come here to kill people. We need to get him in custody."
  • The Boston Bombings: Live Updates
  • Texas Plant Explosion: Live Updates.
  • Regulators Worry Mortgage REITs Pose Threat to Financial System.
  • Boy Scouts Propose Lifting Gay Ban on Kids, but Not Adults. The Boy Scouts of America on Friday proposed to change their membership policy to allow gay youth into its programs for the first time, but continue to ban gay adults.
Fox News:
  • Pakistan's Musharraf lashes out at accusers following arrest. Former Pakistani military ruler Pervez Musharraf criticized allegations against him as "politically motivated" Friday, following his arrest in a case involving his decision to fire senior judges while in power. Musharraf was arrested a day after he made a dramatic escape from a court in Islamabad on Thursday to avoid being detained. Musharraf fled the Islamabad High Court in a speeding vehicle and holed up in his home on the outskirts of the city after a judge rejected his bail and ordered his arrest. It was a new low in Musharraf's troubled return from self-imposed exile last month to attempt a political comeback in the upcoming parliamentary election.
CNBC: 
  • McDonald's(MCD) Profit Rises; Falls Short of Wall Street's Hopes. McDonald's on Friday reported first-quarter profit that rose but fell short of market expectations, undermined by weaker international sales and U.S. consumers that appeared to dine out less
  • IBM's(IBM) Ominous Sign to the Stock Market. IBM's poor earnings performance in the first quarter likely foretells a rough time ahead for the stock market.
  • Wall St. Redux: Arcane Names Hiding Big Risk. The alchemists of Wall Street are at it again.
    The banks that created risky amalgams of mortgages and loans during the boom — the kind that went so wrong during the bust — are busily reviving the same types of investments that many thought were gone for good. Once more, arcane-sounding financial products like collateralized debt obligations are being minted on Wall Street.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Reuters:
Telegraph: 
Handelsblatt:
  • German Companies See Sustained Weak Euro Area. German small- and medium-sized companies expect euro area economies to remain weak in M/T, potentially impacting cross-border investment plans, citing a TNS Infratest survey for Commerzbank. 81% of 4,000 companies expect weak economic growth in euro area. 68% of respondents expect increasing finance problems for companies.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.16%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Services -6.3% 2) Coal -4.88% 3) Disk Drives -1.32%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • IBM, FIO, GE, WTI, PFMT, AIRM, SAP, GCC, DELL, HUBG, GPC, ISRG, SLW, WLT, CTSH, HGSH, SSNC, EMC, HMSY, BHI, SLB, BMI, EVEP, NSIT, BTU, ACN and ACTG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CTL 2) FL 3) MGM 4) IBM 5) CRM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CAT 2) PAY 3) IBM 4) CTSH 5) ALV
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.28%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Biotech +3.97% 2) Homebuilders +2.45% 3) Gaming +1.75%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • UBS, EFII, OSTK, VRTX, IMOS, CMG, ALGN, CE, CPHD, RNF, COF, MAN, TSM, NPSP, EMN and IPG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CTL 2) VRTX 3) NLY 4) SWKS 5) ALGN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NRG 2) KBH 3) BX 4) HON 5) COF
Charts:

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Italy Impasse Deepens as Bersani Bowed by Failed Berlusconi Deal. Italy’s political deadlock deepened over the selection of the next president, raising the threat of snap elections after Democratic Party lawmakers refused orders to back a compromise candidate. Party head Pier Luigi Bersani signaled he will abandon his nominee, Franco Marini, after his allies rebelled over the choice, leading to two failed ballots yesterday. Voting resumes today at 10 a.m. in Rome. “This challenge of keeping the party together is clearly growing more acute,” said Peter Ceretti, a Eurasia Group analyst in New York. “If a consensus candidate can’t be elected politically things become much more uncertain." 
  • Dutch Recession Woes Haunt Rutte as Deficit Breach Persists. Record unemployment in the Netherlands is compounding Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s dilemma on how far to push austerity measures needed to curb the country’s deficit. Consumer confidence due today and statistics on house prices, consumer spending and manufacturers’ confidence next week will confirm just how far the slump has damaged sentiment in the euro-area’s fifth largest economy. Data yesterday showed the jobless rate reached an 18-year high of 8.1 percent in March, with 643,000 people out of work.
  • South Korea’s Hyun Says Yen Bigger Issue Than North Korea. South Korean Finance Minister Hyun Oh Seok said Japan’s weakening yen is hurting his country’s economy more than North Korean threats, an example of a “spillover” that merits discussion. “Japan’s economic policies are doing their part to help the world economy recover,” Hyun said yesterday in an interview in Washington before a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs. “But if this causes problems, and then the problems cause new responses from partnering nations, for example a currency war, the world economy will have a hard time.”
  • China’s Anti-Carrier Missile Now Opposite Taiwan, Flynn Says. The Chinese military has deployed its new anti-ship ballistic missile along its southern coast facing Taiwan, the Pentagon’s top military intelligence officer said today. The missile, designated the DF-21D, is one of a “growing number of conventionally armed” new weapons China is deploying to the region, adding to more than 1,200 short-range missiles opposite the island democracy, U.S. Army Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, the Defense Intelligence Agency director, said in a statement to the Senate Armed Services Committee.
  • Asian Stocks Rise as Commodity Companies Pare Weekly Drop. Asian stocks rose, erasing earlier losses, as commodity companies pared their worst weekly decline since August. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Lenovo Group Ltd. led technology shares higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) gained 0.3 percent to 136.29 as of 11:26 a.m. in Tokyo, reversing a decline of 0.3 percent. A gauge of material producers in the measure climbed 1.1 percent, paring its weekly loss to 4.3 percent, the most since August.
  • Copper Set for Weekly Drop Amid High Stockpiles, Economic Woes. Copper declined in London, poised for the biggest weekly drop in 16 months as inventories swelled to the highest level since 2003 and the outlook for the global economy weighed down metals prices. Aluminum, zinc, nickel and lead also dropped. Copper for delivery in three months lost as much as 1.7 percent to $6,966.75 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, before trading at $6,970 by 9:41 a.m. Shanghai time, putting on course for a weekly decline of 6 percent.
  • Rebar Rises to Pare Weekly Loss, Supported by Iron Ore, Demand. Steel reinforcement-bar futures rose for the first time in three days, paring a weekly loss, supported by iron ore prices and as rising demand helped draw down inventory. The contract for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained as much as 1 percent to 3,687 yuan ($597) a metric ton, before trading at 3,666 yuan at 10:23 a.m. local time. Futures have lost 4.5 percent this week.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Blackstone(BX) Ends Pursuit of Dell(DELL). Blackstone Group LP has ended its pursuit of Dell Inc. less than a month after the private-equity firm said it would try to top a leveraged buyout by the computer maker's founder and a rival private-equity firm. Blackstone had been putting together a bid for Dell to top the offer from founder Michael Dell and private-equity firm Silver Lake Partners. Blackstone's offer would have kept part of the company in the hands of public shareholders. Blackstone, in a letter to the special board committee handling the deal negotiations for Dell, cited declining personal-computer sales industrywide as a factor in its decision, along with concerns about declines in Dell operating income, according to people familiar with the matter
CNBC: 
  • IRS Workers Get Caught With Their Hands in Cookie Jar. Twenty-four current and former Internal Revenue Service employees have been charged with stealing government benefits, federal prosecutors said Wednesday. The IRS employees were indicted on charges that they illegally received more than $250,000 in benefits, including unemployment insurance payments, food stamps, welfare, and housing vouchers, the U.S. attorney's office in Memphis said in a news release. Prosecutors say 13 of the IRS employees face federal charges of lying about being unemployed while applying for or recertifying their government benefits. They each face up to five years in prison if convicted of making false statements to receive the benefits. Eleven others face state charges of theft of property over $1,000, a felony that can carry a sentence of probation up to 12 years in prison if they are convicted.
Zero Hedge: 
Business Insider: 
Reuters: 
  • Lenovo says in potential M&A talks; report of IBM server deal. Lenovo Group said on Friday it was in preliminary talks about a potential acquisition, following a media report that IBM Corp was negotiating the sale of its x86 server hardware business to the Chinese computer maker. IBM wants $5 billion to $6 billion for the business, which sells low-priced servers traditionally used to power large corporate data centers, said technology news site CRN, citing a high ranking industry executive. Lenovo did not identify the acquisition target.
  • Google(GOOG) Internet business solid despite Motorola losses. Google Inc's core Internet business grew net revenue 23 percent in the first quarter, softening the effect of a sharp decline in its Motorola mobile phone division. Shares of Google, which reached an all-time high of $844 in March, were up 1.5 percent to $777.75 in after hours trading on Thursday.
  • Intuitive Surgical(ISRG) narrows 2013 forecast, shares fall. Intuitive Surgical Inc on Thursday narrowed its 2013 forecasts for growth of revenue and procedures using its da Vinci surgical robots rather than raising them as it often does when reporting quarterly results, and its shares fell. 
  • U.S. Fed balance sheet grows to record again in latest week. The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet hit a new record in the latest week on increased holdings of U.S. government debt and mortgage-backed securities, Fed data released on Thursday showed. The Fed's balance sheet - a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system - stood at $3.252 trillion on April 17, up from $3.210 trillion on April 10. The Fed's holdings of Treasuries totaled $1.825 trillion as of Wednesday, April 17, versus $1.814 trillion the previous week.
  • FAA warns of 3.5 hour flight delays this summer. Flight delays of up to 3-1/2 hours are expected at some busy U.S. airports this summer because of furloughs of air-traffic controllers, the top U.S. aviation regulator warned on Thursday. The estimate from the Federal Aviation Administration is the first to detail, in minutes and hours, the potential delays from the agency's decision to furlough 10 percent of its staff, starting Sunday, as it struggles to meet budget cuts required under so-called sequestration.
Financial Times: 
  • Osborne girds for battle with IMF. Mr Osborne believes that the change of heart at the IMF on Britain reflects a power struggle within the fund between fiscal hawks and Keynesians, including Olivier Blanchard, chief economist, and David Lipton, first deputy managing director and a former adviser to Barack Obama, US president. The chancellor believes the UK has become a pawn in a bigger game: beating up Britain over its austerity programme makes it easier for the IMF to criticise Republicans insisting on a tough US fiscal tightening.
Telegraph: 
China Securities Journal:
  • The city of Shenzhen may start property tax trial in near term, citing people from the real estate industry in the city.
Financial News:
  • Chinese first-tier city home price surges may be driven by "hot money," according to a commentary by Financial News, run by China's central bank, written by reporter Xu Shaofeng today. Home prices in 1st-tier cities didn't fall after China issued new curbing policies earlier this year, the commentary said.
People's Daily:
  • China's urbanization shouldn't be used as excuse for some local governments to accumulate excessive debt and pursue blind investment, according to a commentary today written by reporter Liu Xianyun. Governments should be aware of risks in the drop in the value of land used as collateral, slower fiscal revenue growth and shrinking investment returns, the commentary said.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.50 +1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 91.75 -.25 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.27%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.44%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (BHI)/.63
  • (BGG)/1.04
  • (GE)/.35
  • (GPC)/.98
  • (HON)/1.14
  • (KSU)/.88
  • (KMB)/1.33
  • (LH)/1.77
  • (MAN)/.46
  • (MCD)/1.26
  • (COL)/1.17
  • (SAP)/.58
  • (SLB)/.99
  • (STT)/.93
  • (STI)/.62
  • (UA)/.03 
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Stein speaking could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.