Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Li’s Cash Squeeze Risks 1st China GDP-Goal Miss Since ’98. China’s
biggest squeeze on credit in at least a decade is increasing the chance
that Li Keqiang will be the first premier to miss an annual growth
target since the Asian financial crisis in 1998. Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. and China International Capital Corp. yesterday joined banks
from Barclays Plc to HSBC Holdings Plc in paring their growth
projections this year to 7.4 percent, below the government’s 7.5 percent
goal. The cuts followed a tightening in central bank liquidity that
yesterday left the overnight repurchase rate more than double the year’s
average. “The current leadership is trying to build its reputation
in a
different way than the previous administration, which felt that its
target was holy and had to be met regardless of the circumstances,” said
Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc
in Hong Kong, who previously worked for the World Bank. The danger is
that putting the growth goal aside undermines public confidence in
China’s economic policy making that’s already been shaken
by limited communication on the government’s objectives behind the cash
squeeze. The central bank yesterday contributed to the biggest drop in
Chinese stocks in almost four years by releasing a week-old statement
saying liquidity was “reasonable.”
- PBOC Opaque Stress Test Catches Funds in Crossfire. China’s lack of transparency during
a stress test on the nation’s banks became a cause of worldwide
concern as it rocked bond and commodity markets and helped wipe
out $4.5 trillion in global equity value.
- China Beige Book Shows Fewer Firms Borrowing as Rates Rise. Chinese bankers are reporting
increased lending while fewer companies are taking out loans, an
incongruity that helps explain the recent increase in borrowing
costs, a private survey showed. The number of companies reporting loan applications in the
second quarter fell 13 percentage points from the previous
period to 38 percent, the survey from New York-based China Beige
Book International said yesterday. The proportion of banks
showing higher lending to businesses rose 10 percentage points
to 45 percent, indicating that “credit appears to be
concentrated on a few borrowers,” according to the report.
- Morgan Stanley(MS) Cuts Base Metals Outlook as China’s Growth Slows. Morgan Stanley reduced its forecasts
for industrial metals on concerns slowing growth in China, the
world’s biggest consumer, and the nation’s worst cash squeeze in
at least a decade will curb demand. The bank cut its 2013 copper estimate by 3 percent to $3.42
a pound and lowered its nickel prediction by 7 percent to $7.23
a pound, according to analysts Peter Richardson and Joel Crane
in a report e-mailed today. Copper for September delivery traded
at $3.0285 on the Comex in New York. “The headwinds to commodity price performance have been
intensified by growing signs of deterioration in the quality of
this lower growth,” the report said. “Strong credit growth in
total social financing in China has raised some increasingly
serious market concerns about the direction, composition and
risks embedded in this development.”
- U.S. Said to Explore Possible China Role in Snowden Leaks. U.S. intelligence agencies are investigating whether Edward
Snowden’s leaks may be a Chinese intelligence operation or whether China
might have used his concerns about U.S. surveillance practices to
exploit him, according to four American officials. The officials
emphasized there’s no hard evidence yet that Snowden was a Chinese agent
or that China helped plan his flights to Hong Kong and then to Moscow,
directly or through a witting or unwitting intermediary. Rather, they
are duty-bound to probe such a worst-case scenario for the U.S., said
the officials, who are familiar with the case and asked not to be
identified to discuss classified intelligence.
- Cisco(CSCO) China Sales Vulnerable as Media Urge Domestic Shift. Cisco
Systems Inc. (CSCO) faces a backlash in China, where it generates about
$2 billion in annual sales, after state-run media said the company
poses a security threat and urged a shift toward domestic suppliers. While Cisco has said it didn’t participate in U.S.
surveillance programs revealed earlier this month by former
government contractor Edward Snowden, state-owned Chinese media
outlets are calling for the company to face restrictions there.
- Philippine Stocks Enter Bear Market as Foreign Outflows Surge.
Philippine stocks entered a bear market as the nation’s benchmark
equity index slumped for a fifth day amid the biggest monthly foreign
sell-off on record. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PCOMP) fell 2
percent to 5,854.13 at 10:48 a.m. in Manila. The gauge has lost 21 percent since closing at a record 7,392.20 on May 15. Overseas funds
sold a net $344 million of Philippines stocks this month through
yesterday, heading for the biggest monthly selloff since
Bloomberg began compiling the data in 1999.
- Chinese Stocks Plunge as Australian Dollar Falls, Copper Drops. Chinese stocks tumbled deeper into a
bear market, dragging the Asian benchmark share-index lower,
amid concern a cash squeeze will hurt growth. The Australian
dollar weakened and copper declined. The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) of the biggest companies in Shanghai and
Shenzhen slumped 4.8 percent at 12:40 p.m. in Tokyo, extending
yesterday’s 6.3 percent retreat. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
slipped 0.8 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell
0.3 percent, erasing earlier gains. Currencies in Australia and
New Zealand lost at least 0.4 percent versus the greenback,
while the yen climbed 0.4 percent to 97.39 per dollar. Copper
slid to its lowest level since July 2010.
- Rebar Falls for 2nd Day as China Credit Squeeze Damps Sentiment. Steel reinforcement-bar futures fell
for a second day as China’s biggest squeeze on credit in at
least a decade increased concern that demand for the
construction material will falter. Rebar for delivery in October on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange fell as much as 0.8 percent to 3,423 yuan ($557) a
metric ton and was at 3,434 yuan at 10:36 a.m. local time.
- Rubber Futures Swing Amid China Demand Concerns, Weaker Yen. Rubber swung between gains and
losses as investors weighed a weaker Japanese currency against China’s biggest squeeze on credit in a decade. The
contract for delivery in November on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange
gained as much as 1.3 percent and fell as much as 1.1 percent before
trading at 230.9 yen a kilogram
($2,364 a metric ton) at 11:57 a.m. Futures touched a nine-month
low of 228 yen on June 21.
- Berlusconi’s Sex Conviction Raises Tension in Letta’s Government. Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta
is facing discord among parliamentary supporters after his
coalition partner, Silvio Berlusconi, was convicted of paying a
minor for sex and sentenced to seven years in prison. The verdict, announced yesterday by Judge Giulia Turri in
Milan, was criticized by Deputy Prime Minister Angelino Alfano
and Renato Brunetta, chief whip of the second-biggest party in
the lower house of parliament. Letta’s own Democratic Party said
it would respect the judge’s decision. Berlusconi, a 76-year-old
billionaire and former premier, has said he is innocent and
remains free as he prepares his appeal.
- Wall Street’s $8 Billion CMBS in Limbo as Bulls Retreat. Wall Street firms spent the past six
months increasing commercial mortgage origination as investors
bought the most debt in six years. That’s now backfiring as
banks prepare to market $7.5 billion of loans earmarked to be
sold as bonds before credit markets took a dive this month. Investors demanded 1.03 percentage point more than the
benchmark swap rate to buy new commercial mortgage backed
securities tied to shopping malls, skyscrapers, hotels and
apartment buildings on June 14, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. That’s up from 72 basis points in February, the narrowest
spread since sales revived in 2009, the data show. Lenders’ profits are
eroded when values of the securities fall. The CMBS market is poised
for its worst month in almost two years after the Federal Reserve
signaled it may curb stimulus efforts as the economy shows sign of
improvement. That’s
complicating efforts by banks to sell new deals and making it
more expensive for landlords to refinance loans backed by
everything from Manhattan office space to suburban grocery
stores.
- Homebuilders Approach Bear Market on Rising Mortgage Rates. U.S. homebuilders fell for a fourth day, approaching a
bear market, as concern mounted that rising mortgage rates could
restrain a revival in the housing market. The
11-member Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilding Index slid 1
percent today to the lowest level since the end of 2012. It has fallen
19.6 percent from a May 14 peak, close to the 20 percent threshold
considered to be a bear market.
Wall Street Journal:
- China's 'Shadow Banks' Fan Debt-Bubble Fears.
In a 52-story office tower overlooking the leafy streets of this city's
embassy district, some 400 deal makers at Citic Trust Co. arrange
financing for property developers, steel mills and other businesses
starved for cash and shunned by China's traditional banks. The lenders at Citic and other institutions that make up China's
"shadow banks" have created the closest thing China has to the culture
of Wall Street. They take risks that traditional banks won't, going so
far as to create investment funds for assets like top-shelf liquor and
mahogany furniture. Their top executives drive luxury cars and frequent
expensive clubs. Now, China's shadow banks—a mélange of
trust companies, insurance firms, leasing companies, pawnbrokers and
other informal lenders subject to limited oversight—are at the center of
mounting concerns over whether the country's slowing economy could
trigger a debt crisis.
- Explosions, Gunfire Rock Central Kabul. Gunfire and explosions rocked central Kabul, a week after the Taliban opened a negotiating office in the Gulf emirate of Qatar. A plume of dark smoke was visible close to embassies and government
buildings, and an alarm warning coalition and diplomatic personnel to
take cover was audible in the city's diplomatic quarter.
- Underwater Drones Are Multiplying Fast. Robots Are Invading the Sea for All Kinds of Inspections—With
an Eye on Prey. The next army of unmanned drones are scurrying beneath the ocean's
surface. Hundreds of small camera-equipped robots developed by a range of companies
are sending video and other data to laptop and tablet screens above.
- Army Plans Cuts to Combat Forces.
The Army will announce Tuesday it will cut more than 10 brigade
combat teams, a significant reduction in the size of its fighting forces
and combat power, according to defense officials. The Army has previously announced it will reduce the size of its
force from its current level of 541,000 to 480,000 by 2017 under the
$487 billion of spending reductions mandated by the 2011 Budget Control
Act, but hasn't detailed precisely which parts of its active-duty force
it will cut.
- Texas' Next Big Oil Rush. New Pipelines Ferrying Landlocked Crude Expected to Boost Gulf Coast Refiners. New pipelines are beginning to carry a glut of domestic crude from the
middle of the country to Texas' Gulf Coast, boosting the fortunes of the
area's big refineries and further fueling a decline in oil imports.
Fox News:
- Senate advances immigration bill in key test vote. An immigration overhaul that would legalize millions of undocumented
immigrants while boosting border security passed a major test in the
Senate on Monday, as lawmakers voted to advance a compromise measure
despite resistance from some Republicans. The Senate voted 67-27 to advance an amendment that was only
submitted late last week. Critics complained that the Senate was voting
on the 119-page proposal before having a chance to analyze it.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Washington Post:
- The Insiders: The president plans to raise your power bill. If you accept the science of global warming, then you accept the fact
that the president’s unilateral action on climate change will have
absolutely no effect in terms of adjusting the global thermostat to a
temperature Obama finds desirable. The rest of the developing world,
anchored by India and China, are building carbon-burning factories,
power plants and even whole new cities that will overwhelm any new rules
the president may impose on Americans and our struggling economy.
New York Times:
- Exit From the Bond Market Is Turning Into a Stampede. Wall Street never thought it would be this bad. Over the last
two months, and particularly over the last two weeks, investors have
been exiting their bond investments with unexpected ferocity, moves that
continued through Monday.
- Credit Warnings Give World a Peek Into China’s Secretive Banks. China’s hidden banking system is coming out of the shadows as the
government seeks to rein in the excessive lending that it fears could
spin out of control. The People’s Bank of China, the central bank,
let the world know on
Monday that it was putting the nation’s banks on notice: the loose money
and the speculation it fed had to stop. It said banks had to step up
risk controls and improve cash management. And they had to do it, the
bank said, by avoiding a “stampede” mentality. The banks had quietly
received that very message a week earlier, which set off, if not a rush
for the exits, certainly widespread worry in China and financial
centers around the world.
Reuters:
- Six more U.S. municipal bond sales postponed. With yields on the U.S. municipal bond
market rising, local issuers on Monday postponed another six
bond sales, totaling $331 million, that were originally
scheduled to price later this week.
- Asia driving "explosion" in global arms trade-study. Asian powers are outpacing the
United States to become the biggest spenders on defence by 2021
and are fuelling an "explosion" in the global arms trade, a
study showed. The global arms trade
jumped by 30 percent to $73.5 billion between 2008-2012 in spite of the
economic downturn, driven by surging exports from China and demand from
countries like India, and is set to more than double by 2020, defence
and security consultancy IHS Jane's said on Tuesday.
Telegraph:
- Italy could need EU rescue within six months, warns Mediobanca. Italy is likely to need an EU rescue within six months as the country slides
into deeper economic crisis and a credit crunch spreads to large companies,
a top Italian bank has warned privately. Mediobanca, Italy’s second biggest bank, said its “index of solvency risk” for
Italy was already flashing warning signs as the worldwide bond rout
continued into a second week, pushing up borrowing costs. “Time is running out fast,” said Mediobanca’s top analyst, Antonio Guglielmi,
in a confidential client note. “The Italian macro situation has not improved
over the last quarter, rather the contrary. Some 160 large corporates in
Italy are now in special crisis administration.” The report warned that Italy will “inevitably end up in an EU bail-out
request” over the next six months, unless it can count on low borrowing
costs and a broader recovery. Emphasising the gravity of the situation, it compared the crisis with when the
country was blown out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992 despite drastic
austerity measures.
Sueddeutsche Zeitung:
- Weidmann Calls for Strict Balance-Sheet Tests for Banks, Sueddeutsche Zeitung. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann says balance sheets of European banks need to be
cleaned up, citing an interview. Says "thorough and rigorous review
essential to avoid further unpleasant surprises". Says failure to
implement might damage credibility of banking union. European Central
Bank plans "quality" test for 130-150 banks that will be under the
bank's supervision in future. Says need to maintain option to shut banks
down. Says if there's common supervision, there should also be joint restructuring and settlement. Says private investors should be the first to provide financing and only when that isn't possible should governments decide if public funding will be used.
Says only when banks are adequately capitalized and have sustainable
business models will they be able to carry risk and provide credit.
China Daily:
- China Prepared for Pain to Ensure Reform: Editorial. Drop in benchmark Shanghai Composite Index yesterday shows authorities are preparing to continue painful and necessary reforms to keep the economy growing in a more sustainable manner, the editorial said. Exposing problems for "early treatment" is better than "tinkering" that delays a crisis. The direction of reform cannot be clearer, the editorial said.
- China
Should Target EU Trade, Investment in Solar Dispute. China should
launch retaliatory trade investigations to "hit back" at the EU after
the region imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels, Mei Xinyu, a
researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic
Cooperation affiliated to the Ministry of Commerce, writes in a
commentary. The government could also curb investments and trade orders
to the EU as the region is trapped in a a debt crisis and depends on
Chinese investment and trade, Mei wrote. China could also take action
specifically against France, Italy, Lithuania and Portugal, which
supported the tariffs, he said.
- China Shouldn't Ease
Liquidity to Rescue Market. China's stock market would be hurt if
central bank eased liquidity or regulators continue a suspension of
IPOs., according to a commentary published by Gao Yuncai.
Shenzhen Daily:
- Hedge fund manager expects market crash. FORMER chess grandmaster-turned hedge fund manager Patrick Wolff is
betting on a stock market crash in China, where he says bad debts have
spiraled to dangerous levels. Speaking to reporters on the
sidelines of the GAIM conference in Monaco last week, Wolff said
investors were too focused on trying to work out when easy money
policies will taper off in the United States and ignoring a looming
correction in China. “People are talking way too much about the
Federal Reserve and not enough about China,” he said. “We’ve been saying
that the United States is the safest place to invest, while China is a
crash waiting to happen.” He is short on Chinese stocks and generally long on U.S. equities.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -3.0% to -.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 167.50 +7.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 140.75 +14.5 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.28%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Durable Goods Orders for May are estimated to rise +3.0% verus a +3.3% gain in April.
- Durables Ex Transports for May are estimated unch. versus a +1.3% gain in April.
- Cap Goods Orders Non-defense Ex Air for May are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.2% gain in April.
9:00 am EST
- S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA for April is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.12% gain in March.
- The House Price Index for April is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.3% gain in March.
10:00 am EST
- The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June is estimated to rise to 2.0 versus -2.0 in May.
- Consumer Confidence for June is estimated to fall to 75.1 versus 76.2 in May.
- New Home Sales for May are estimated to rise to 460K versus 454K in April.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Italian 10Y auction, Italian Retail Sales reports, 2Y T-Note auction, weekly retail sales reports, (CSCO) Investor Day and the Global Hunter Energy Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 19.61 +3.76%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.65 -.17%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.79 +.68%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.11 +4.20%
- ISE Sentiment Index 70.0 -10.26%
- Total Put/Call .99 -14.66%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 96.99 +3.18%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 190.19 +5.39%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 95.50 +.53%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 369.30 -2.1%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 -.5 bp
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 +.25 bp
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $116.60/Metric Tonne -1.69%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.10 +3.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -38.60 +5.1 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.92 -2 bps
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +46 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Snowden Fleeing Damaging to U.S.-China Relations, Carney Says.
Hong Kong’s decision to let fugitive
Edward Snowden leave for Moscow “unquestionably” damages U.S.
relations with China, President Barack Obama’s spokesman said. The U.S.
government has expressed its “frustration and disappointment with Hong
Kong and China” for letting Snowden flee, White House press secretary
Jay Carney said today.
- Berlusconi Convicted by Milan Court in Sex-With-Minor Case. Silvio Berlusconi, the 76-year-old
billionaire and former Italian prime minister, was found guilty
by a Milan court of paying a minor for sex and abusing the power
of his office. He was sentenced to seven years in jail. Berlusconi was also given a lifetime ban from public
office, Judge Giulia Turri said in the Milan courtroom after a
two-year trial. The ruling doesn’t become binding until the end
of the appeals process, which could take months or years, and
even if the sentence were enforced, it may involve house arrest
due to his age. Turri urged prosecutors to seek perjury charges
against more than 30 witnesses in the case.
- European Stocks Drop on China Concern; Erste Group Falls. European stocks fell for a fifth
day, erasing their gains for the year, as Goldman Sachs Group
Inc. cut China’s growth forecast amid concern banks in the world’s second-largest economy face a cash crunch. Erste Group Bank AG tumbled the most in 17 months as it
planned a rights offer to repay state aid. Kazakhmys Plc plunged
to a four-year low as it backed a bid to take Eurasian Natural
Resources Corp. private. Kabel Deutschland Holding AG rose 1.7
percent after Vodafone Group Plc offered to buy the German cable
company for 7.7 billion euros ($10.1 billion). The Stoxx Europe 600
Index declined 1.7 percent to 275.66 at the close in London. The equity
benchmark has entered a so-called correction, having slumped 11 percent
since May 22.
- Company Credit Swaps in U.S. Rise to Highest Level Since Dec. 5. A gauge of U.S. corporate credit
risk rose for a fourth day to a more than six-month high as
Chinese equities entered a bear market on concern that a cash crunch will injure the economy. The Markit CDX North American Investment Grade Index, a credit-default swaps benchmark that investors use to hedge
against losses or to speculate on creditworthiness, increased
5.7 basis points to a mid-price of 99.7 basis points at 8:28
a.m. in New York, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg.
Earlier the index reached 99.8 basis points, the highest
intraday level since Dec. 5.
- Copper Declines as Inventories Advance to 10-Year High. Copper
fell to the lowest in almost
three years in New York on concern that slowing growth in China will
curb demand as inventories reach a 10-year high. Aluminum extended the
longest slump since at least 1987. China’s central bank said there’s
a reasonable amount of liquidity in the financial system and urged
banks to control risks from credit expansion, signaling no relief from a
cash squeeze. Copper stockpiles monitored by the London Metal
Exchange climbed to the highest since June 2003 and Freeport-McMoran
Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia is
resuming output after a tunnel collapsed on May 14. “China’s credit
crunch is exacerbating a slowdown there
that was already going on,” Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated
Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview.
“That’s going to slow world demand for copper. And inventories are
growing.” Copper futures for September delivery fell 2.3 percent to
settle at $3.0285 a pound at 1:12 p.m. on the Comex in New York
after touching $2.9935, the lowest for a most-active contract
since July 20, 2010. Trading volume in New York was 38 percent
higher than the average for the past 100 days at this time,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
- Kocherlakota Says Fed Policy Guidance Is ‘Insufficient’.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
President Narayana Kocherlakota, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy
this year, said the central bank needs to set clearer guideposts for the
outlook for record stimulus and commit to press on with monthly bond
purchases at least until unemployment falls below 7 percent. “The
committee’s communications have provided insufficient detail about how
its policy strategy will play out when the recovery is more advanced,”
Kocherlakota said in a statement today released by the Minneapolis Fed.
- Fed’s Fisher Says He Backs Tapering QE With Economic Improvement. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
President Richard Fisher, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy
this year, said he favors scaling back the Fed’s monthly bond-buying if the economy makes the kind of progress officials are
currently expecting. “I agree fully with the chairman that we should dial back
on the stimulus” should “we achieve what the 19 of us
forecast,” Fisher said today in a speech in London. The central
bank is currently purchasing $85 billion in bonds every month.
- U.S. FTC Said to Open Probe of Oil Price-Fixing After EU. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission opened a formal investigation into
how prices of crude oil and petroleum-derived products are set,
mirroring a European Union inquiry, two people familiar with the matter
said. The investigation, now in a preliminary stage, will
probably become a broad probe similar to the multi-jurisdictional
inquiry into bank manipulation of the London interbank offered rate, or
Libor, the people said. FTC investigators are reviewing the progress
their European counterparts have made, said the people, who asked not to
be named because the matter is confidential.
- Options on Debt Derivatives Nearing $100 Billion: Credit Markets. The market for options on credit
derivatives indexes has surged more than 40 percent in the past
month to $98.8 billion as investors search farther afield for
cheap hedges protecting against a sell-off in the bond markets. The
contracts, which give investors the right but not the obligation to buy
or sell indexes of credit-default swaps at a certain price, have doubled
from $48.7 billion a year ago, Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.
data show. That compares with a 17 percent drop in the amount covered by
swaps benchmarks on
U.S. and European investment-grade debt and a 4 percent decline
for all credit derivative products in the year through June 14.
MarketWatch:
CNBC:
- Mark Mobius: China's Problems as Big as US Subprime. While China's housing market problems are similar in scale to those faced
during the U.S. subprime mortgage bubble and its banks are rife with bad loans,
it won't lead to another Lehman-style crash, Franklin Templeton's Mark Mobius
told CNBC on Monday. Mobius manages some $53 billion in emerging market funds and has more money
invested in China than in any other market.
- Earnings Season Already Looks Like a Train Wreck. Employers Test Plans That Cap Health Costs. Hoping to cut medical costs, employers are experimenting with a new way
to pay for health care, telling workers that their company health plan
will pay only a fixed amount for a given test or procedure, like a CT
scan or knee replacement. Employees who choose a doctor or hospital that
charges more are responsible for paying the additional amount
themselves.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Marc to Market:
Reuters:
Telegraph:
Handelsblatt:
- CDU's
Willsch Recommends Greek Euro Exit. Euro exit is Greece's only chance
to recover via devaluation of a new currency and structural reforms,
citing Klaus-Peter Willsch, a lawmaker from German Chancellor Angela
Merkel's Christian Democratic Union party and budget-committee member,
as saying. After successful reforms Greece could reapply for euro
membership, Willsch said. Willsch skeptical Greek Prime Minister Antonis
Samaras' government can reach EU, IMF targets after failed
privatization of natural gas company Depa.
Xinhua:
- Shanghai will continue to implement the nation's property control
policies, citing Pang Yuan, vice director of the Shanghai housing
bureau.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Education -6.71% 2) Gaming -4.89% 3) Steel -4.20%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- SZYM, EVC, EROC, NIHD, BOFI, CTCM, PBR, CIT, STO, LVLT, RLD, THO, DLX, AGN, ZTS, PHT, PMF, MEN, TREX, ACWI, PFE, HPI, HYGS, NGG, FAM, ELP, FLS, TPH, PBA, BUD, VCV, MSZ, LVS, BFZ, AFB, MYD, WLT, CYY, ETH, ETG, CHY, YHOO, WHR, CWH, WYNN, GNW, TCAP, ALDW, LAD, AI, NTI, AB, CNX, MITT, AMBA, URI, PSP, SSO, AWF, BOE, NFJ, SLRC, CHI, BFAM, BBEP, SPH, VWO, MAIN, ROVI, UTF, AHT, CVY, NRP and LL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) IEF 2) RF 3) JNK 4) XOP 5) TGT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) DE 2) ITW 3) FCX 4) MGM 5) GS
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- HMOs +.23% 2) Hospitals -.34% 3) Foods -1.05%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) CVC 2) AOL 3) SVNT 4) PFE 5) TBT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) PVH 2) LMT 3) CQB 4) SCHW 5) AMD
Charts:
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China Central Bank Says Financial-System Liquidity ‘Reasonable’. China
said there’s a reasonable amount of liquidity in the financial system
and urged banks to control risks from credit expansion, signaling no
relief for a cash squeeze that risks exacerbating an economic slowdown.
“At present, the overall liquidity in China’s banking system is at a
reasonable level, but due to many changing factors in the financial
markets and also because of the mid-year point, the requirements for
commercial banks in liquidity management have become higher,” the
People’s Bank of China said in a statement dated June 17 and published
on its website today in Beijing. The government’s most explicit
comments on this month’s cash squeeze add to signs that Premier Li
Keqiang is committed to stamping out speculation funded by cheap money.
Slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy, a crackdown on
illegal capital inflows and efforts to rein in shadow banking have
contributed to increased borrowing costs. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
economists led by Cui Li in Hong Kong said in a report earlier today
that the liquidity tightening is another
indication that the government’s priority is to tackle “structural
problems” in the economy. Goldman Sachs cut its 2013 expansion forecast
to 7.4 percent from 7.8 percent.
- World’s Worst Real Estate Bonds Targeted in Crunch.
China’s builders have been the world’s worst-performing real-estate
bonds this quarter as Premier Li Keqiang allowed a record cash crunch to
rebalance the economy away from property investment. Dollar-denominated
notes sold by Chinese developers have lost 4.1 percent this quarter,
the most since the three months ended Sept. 30, 2011 and the worst among
peers in major economies in Bank of America Corp.’s Global Corporates
Real Estate Index. That marks a reversal after the debt topped 2012
rankings with a 22 percent return. Australian builders lost 0.8 percent
since March 31, while Japan’s shed 1.7 percent.
- Chinese Banks’ Bond Risk Rises Most in Asia Amid Moody’s Warning.
Bank of China Ltd. (3988), Export-Import Bank of China and China
Development Bank Corp. led gains in Asian bond risk last week as Moody’s
Investors Service warns credit curbs could threaten small and mid-sized
lenders. Prices of swaps tied to Bank of China, the nation’s fourth-largest lender, rose 70.4 basis points last week to 192.4, the
biggest increase among members of the Markit iTraxx Asia index
of 40 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan, according to
data provider CMA. The cost of insuring Asian corporate and
sovereign bonds from default surged 27.6 basis points last week,
the most since November 2011, CMA prices show.
- World’s Biggest Pension Fund Doubts 2% Inflation for Japan. Japan’s central bank probably
promised too much when it set a goal of lifting inflation to 2
percent within two years, according to Takahiro Mitani,
president of the country’s public pension fund. History is against
the Bank of Japan as it undertakes unprecedented asset purchases in
pursuit of a pledge to overcome 15 years of deflation, Mitani, the
64-year-old head of the 112
trillion yen ($1.14 trillion) Government Pension Investment
Fund, said in a Tokyo interview June 21. The world’s biggest
manager of retirement savings, which said on June 7 that it’s
cutting local bond holdings to buy more stocks and foreign
securities, plans to leave its asset allocations at the new
levels until at least March 2015, he said.
- S. Korea to Tighten Monitoring of Banks’ Liquidity: Choo.
South Korea’s government plans to tighten monitoring of banks’
liquidity and scale down its bond sales volumes in July as possible
reductions in Federal Reserve stimulus roil capital flows from
developing countries. South Korea’s fundamentals from budget to foreign reserves are sound, so speculation on a Fed move is unlikely to spur any
drastic capital outflows, Vice Finance Minister Choo Kyung Ho
said in Seoul.
- India Funding Strain Grows as Fed Outlook Hurts Rupee. India
faces growing strain to fund the widest current-account deficit in
major Asian nations after the rupee slid to an all-time low on concern
the U.S. will curb monetary stimulus as its economy improves. The deficit narrowed to $21 billion last quarter, from
$32.6 billion or a record 6.7 percent of gross domestic product
in October to December, the median of nine estimates shows in a
Bloomberg News survey before data due June 28. The Reserve Bank
of India estimates the sustainable level at 2.5 percent of GDP.
- China’s Stocks Extend Three-Week Slump as Financial Shares Fall.
China’s stocks fell, led by financial and consumer companies, as the
nation’s equities extended a three-week slump. China Minsheng Banking
Corp. sank 5 percent, leading a gauge of financial shares to the lowest
level since December. Gree Electric Appliances Inc. lost 3 percent,
pacing declines among consumer shares. Jiangxi Copper Co. declined 1.4
percent after copper inventories gained for a fourth week. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) declined 1.3 percent to 2,045.59 as of 9:50 a.m. in Shanghai. It slumped 4.1 percent
last week, the most in four months, amid concerns about economic
growth and tighter liquidity after interbank lending rates
surged.
- Asian Stocks Drop on China Outlook, Extending Decline.
Asian stocks declined, with the benchmark regional index heading toward
the worst monthly loss in a year, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its
growth forecast for China amid concern a cash crunch at banks in the
world’s second-largest economy. Industrial & Commercial Bank of
China Ltd., the world’s largest lender, lost 1.7 percent in Hong Kong,
having risen just one day in June. BHP Billiton Ltd., the No. 1 mining
company, declined 3.1 percent, dragging Australia’s S&P/ASX 200
Index
lower. AMP Ltd. tumbled 10 percent, heading for its biggest
slide in 4 1/2 years, after Australia’s biggest life insurer and
pension manager said it expects profit will fall as much as 16
percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1 percent to 126.45 as of
10:35 a.m. in Hong Kong. About two shares fell for every one
that advanced.
- EU Leaders to Stave Off Market Turmoil After Bank Talks Fail. European Union leaders will this
week attempt to stave off a resurgence of market tremors after
talks on setting up unified banking rules broke down. Negotiations among the 27-member bloc’s finance ministers
stalled over the weekend in Luxembourg after they tried to reach
agreement on assigning losses at failing banks as part of
proposed rules on bank resolution and recovery. They will
regroup June 26, before EU leaders gather the next day for a
summit meeting in Brussels. “We shouldn’t be lulled by the current calm in the
markets,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a
statement after the meeting. “Rather we should quickly ensure
that we’re prepared for every eventuality.”
- Hollande No Schroeder as Businesses Work Through Ambiguous Rules.
What French President Francois Hollande gives with one hand he takes
away with the other. That’s what some of the country’s business leaders
say about the Socialist president’s yearlong effort to try and make
France more competitive while also appeasing his labor union
supporters. Hollande pushed through a law in April making
firings easier and labor rules more flexible. Now, he’s
threatening to slap companies closing plants in France with
multimillion-euro fines.
- ‘Window-Dressing’ Undermines Bank Risk-Weight Trust: BIS. Global
banks have improved their capital ratios in part by understating the
riskiness of their assets, not by raising their ability to stem losses,
the Bank for International Settlements said. Regulators need to monitor
the use of internal risk models in determining the capital lenders hold
against losses and complement them with gauges that don’t use risk
weightings, the BIS said in its annual report released today. The
BIS, based in Basel, Switzerland and owned by 60 central banks, hosts
the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a group of regulators
and central bankers that sets global capital standards.
- Rubber Trades Near Lowest in Nine Months on China Demand Concern. Rubber declined, heading for a fifth
monthly loss, amid concern that demand may weaken from China, the world’s largest consumer of the commodity used in tires. The contract for delivery in November on the Tokyo
Commodity Exchange fell as much as 1.3 percent to 233.3 yen a
kilogram ($2,376 a metric ton), nearing a nine-month low of 228
yen reached on June 21. Futures traded at 234.1 yen at 11:17
a.m., extending losses for this month to 9 percent.
- Rebar Falls on Lower Iron Ore, Smaller Reduction in Inventory.
Steel reinforcement-bar futures in China fell after a decline in iron
ore prices and as inventory shrank at the slowest rate in 10 weeks. Rebar for delivery in October on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 1.6 percent to 3,457 yuan ($563) a
metric ton, before trading at 3,458 yuan at 10:33 a.m. local
time.
- Treasury Yields Surge Most Since 2003. Treasury
10-year (USGG10YR) note yields climbed the most since the start of the
Iraq war as investors fled U.S. debt after the Federal Reserve predicted
economic growth will be strong enough to allow policy makers to stop
buying bonds.
- Obama Said to Announce Emission Curbs on Power Plants Next Week. The initiatives to curb climate
change that President Barack Obama plans to unveil will include
the first limits of carbon emissions from existing power plants,
according to a person familiar with the plans. “I’ll lay out my vision for where I believe we need to go:
a national plan to reduce carbon pollution, prepare our country
for the impacts of climate change, and lead global efforts to
fight it,” Obama said yesterday on the social media outlets
YouTube and Twitter. “This is a serious challenge, but it’s one
uniquely suited to America’s strengths.”
- Apple(AAPL) Awaits E-Book Decision With More Suits in Wings. Apple
Inc. (AAPL) will find out sometime in the coming weeks whether it’s
legally responsible for an alleged scheme to fix prices for electronic
books, after an unusual three-week civil antitrust trial in Manhattan.
U.S. District Judge Denise Cote, who heard the trial without a jury,
will rule on U.S. claims that Apple, the world’s biggest technology
company, led a conspiracy of five publishers to raise the retail price
of e-books and to force Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), the No. 1 e-book seller,
to change its pricing model.
Wall Street Journal:
- Chinese Industrial Subsidies Grow 23%. Chinese companies are under growing financial pressure as the
country's economic growth slows. So industries ranging from airlines to
steel to consumer appliances increasingly are leaning on the Chinese
government. Companies listed on China's stock exchanges received 85.68 billion
yuan ($13.83 billion) in government subsidies last year, up 23% from a
year earlier, while corporate profits rose less than 1%, according to a
Chinese data provider. The subsidies were equivalent to more than 4% of
the companies' total profits last year, up from around 3% between 2009
and 2011.
- Australians Nervous Over China Investment.
Most Australians think the government is allowing too much Chinese
investment, a poll suggests, even as ownership of local assets by the
nation's biggest trading partner remains relatively small. In the Lowy Institute poll, 57% said they were concerned over Chinese
buying of assets from farmland to listed companies. The institute
surveyed 1,002 Australian voters in March.
- Brazil Finds Itself in a Bind over Spending. Demonstrators Have Been Promised Better Services, But Investors May Be Scared Off by Bigger Deficits, Higher Inflation. "The problem that they have is they need to calm down two very nervous
stakeholders, the market and the population, and they are demanding
different things," said Pedro Barbosa, a partner at Rio de Janeiro-based
hedge fund STK Capital.
Fox News:
CNBC:
- Hedge Funds Shift to Stocks, Just in Time for Pullback.
Hedge fund investors have begun to like stocks again—just in time for
what
appears to be a rough summer ahead for the equity markets. Reversing a
trend that began in March 2010, hedge funds in May saw inflows to
equity-based products and outflows from fixed income.
Business Insider:
New York Times:
- China Said to Have Made Call to Let Leaker Depart. The Chinese government made the final decision to allow Edward J.
Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor, to leave Hong
Kong on Sunday, a move that Beijing believed resolved a tough diplomatic
problem even as it reaped a publicity windfall from Mr. Snowden’s
disclosures, according to people familiar with the situation.
LA Times:
Washington Post:
- Risky derivatives trading comes roaring back.
The exotic financial products that nearly crippled the economy in 2008
are roaring back at the nation’s biggest banks, according to data
released Friday that reform advocates worry come just as regulations to
rein in risky trading are being weakened in Washington. Demand for
derivatives — contracts whose value is derived from stocks, bonds, loans
and currencies — is growing as investors and corporations try to lock
in low interest rates. But critics worry that there are too few rules
to protect taxpayers from a market dominated by a handful of banks. On
Friday, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency reported that
banks pulled in $7.5 billion in revenue from trading derivatives in the
first three months of 2013, a 7 percent increase from the corresponding
period a year ago, and a 72 percent jump from the fourth quarter of
2012. The face value of the derivatives held by banks rose 4 percent
over the prior year to $231.6 trillion, according to the report.
Market News International:
- China International Capital Corp. cuts China 2013 GDP growth forecast to 7.4% from 7.7% earlier.
Telegraph:
- BIS fears fresh bank crisis from global bond spike. Soaring bond yields across the world threaten trillion of dollars in losses
for investors and a fresh financial crisis unless banks are braced for the
shock, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.
Sueddeutsche Zeitung:
- Weidmann Sees No Need for Immediate Interest-Rate Increase. Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann comments in interview. The ECB's new bond-buying program OMT has 'noticeable restrictions,' which is a step in the right direction. Potential bond buys by ECB are still 'problematic'.
Real News:
- Greece Needs Another Debt Writedown, Merkel Aide Says. Greece
needs a further reduction in its sovereign debt level and participation
by government creditors shouldn't be considered a taboo, citing an
interview with Peter Bofinger, economic adviser to German Chancellor
Angela Merkel. Bofinger says will be "very difficult" for Greece to cut
debt to acceptable level over next years. Bofinger says he doesn't see
turn for the better in Greek economy based on current data. Bofinger
repeated view that tax should be imposed on wealthy in indebted
euro-area countries, austerity has mainly hit the poor.
Financial News:
- Reserve Ratio Cut Not Best for China Growth. Monetary easing policies such as cutting reserve requirement ratio are not the best options for China's growth, according to a front-page commentary written by reporter Xu Shaofeng. Reserve ratio cut will increase overcapacity and expand debt scale for local government financing vehicles. Financing environment for smaller companies which need funds will not be improved with a reserve ratio cut.
China Securities Journal:
- China Credit Market Liquidity Mismatch 'Serious'.
China's credit market has a "very serious" mismatch in liquidity as
reflected by the current tight money conditions, Liu Yuhui, a researcher
at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, writes in a commentary. Some
institutions match short-term interbank funds with long-term assets for
profit, Liu writes. Risks are exposed when cash flows from long-term
assets can't cover short-term debt obligations when the economy slows.
The sale of new debt to cover interest payments on old debt displays
"ponzi" characteristics, Liu said. A quick drop in asset prices
triggered by a sell-off of assets would cause a "hard landing," he said.
Crackdowns on shadow banking and expansion of leverages are "timely,"
Liu wrote.
Night Trading
- Asian indices are -2.0% to -.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 160.0 -6.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 126.25 -8.0 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.31%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for May is estimated to rise to -.15 versus -.53 in April.
10:30 am EST
- The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for June is estimated to rise to -1.0 versus -10.5 in May.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Fisher speaking, German IFO Business Climate and the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.
