Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.05%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Coal +1.26% 2) Software +.25% 3) Road & Rail +.14%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RPRX, ADBE, SOHU, SFUN, AFOP, MKTG, VIPS, EGHT, SGMO and VNDA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AEGR 2) ADBE 3)  DECK 4) ESRX 5) SD
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BTU 2) JNJ 3) LAYN 4) HUM 5) EBIX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Vacant Japan Homes Show Holes in Abe’s Push for Housing Growth. More than 50 houses and apartments, almost 20 percent of the quaint residential neighborhood of narrow streets and stairway paths leading into green hills, are empty here, an hour’s train ride south of Tokyo and 1,000 yards (900 meters) from the Yokosuka naval base, home of the U.S. Seventh Fleet. That hasn’t stopped developers from building at least eight new apartment blocks in the same city in the past two years. 

• China’s Choking Cities Means Job Cuts at Steel Town: Commodities. After a decade of failed efforts to cut outdated commodity capacity in China, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says Li is getting serious, driven by the need to reduce severe pollution. Zhang and thousands like him on Galaxy Street live off servicing mills in Tangshan, the largest steel city in China that alone has almost five times as many blast furnaces as North America. “If you shut these plants, we’ll all lose our jobs,” said Zhang. “If there’s no steel industry, we would have a hard time finding other work.” 

• China August Home Prices Rise as Major Cities Post Record Gains. New home prices in China’s four major cities rose the most in August since January 2011, led by Guangzhou, on expectations that the government won’t implement new nationwide property curbs any time soon. Prices climbed in 69 of the 70 cities the government tracked last month from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today. The number of cities that posted increases last month matched that of in July, June and May, which was the most since August 2011. Prices jumped 19 percent in Guangzhou, while the capital city of Beijing and financial center of Shanghai both rose 15 percent from a year earlier. In Shenzhen, prices rose 18 percent from a year ago. 

• Shanghai in Name Adds $45 Billion of Value Amid Bubble Risk. Zhang Guangdi has watched the market value of his Shanghai International Port Group Co. (600018) shares jump 130 percent since Aug. 22, when China’s commerce ministry said the government approved a free-trade zone in Shanghai. The 67-year-old retiree says he’ll probably sell the 2,935 yuan ($480) stake when the zone, part of Premier Li Keqiang’s plan to liberalize yuan trading and relax government regulation, opens at the end of this month. The port operator is valued at 25 times profit, a 121 percent premium versus the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

• Asian Stocks Rise to Near Four-Month High Ahead of Fed. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index trading near a four-month high, before the Federal Reserve decides later today whether to slow its $85 billion of monthly asset purchases. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. and Fanuc Corp. rose at least 3.3 percent in Tokyo as industrial companies led gains on the Asia-Pacific benchmark index. Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. (7012) surged 4.4 percent to a six-year high amid unconfirmed reports the Japanese manufacturer secured a 180 billion yen ($1.8 billion) rail-car order. Kansai Electric Power Co. sank 1.4 percent in Tokyo after the utility halted units at two power plants. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4 percent to 138.69 as of 11:20 a.m. in Hong Kong as seven of the 10 industry groups on the gauge advanced. 

• Rebar Falls to Seven-Week Low as Purchases Slow, Iron Ore Drops. Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai fell to the lowest level in seven weeks as purchases of the building material slowed before a national holiday and as iron ore prices declined. Rebar for delivery in January on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 0.6 percent to 3,626 yuan ($592) a metric ton, the lowest since July 31, before trading at 3,631 yuan at 10:18 a.m. The market will be closed in China for a Mid-Autumn Festival tomorrow and Sept. 20. 

• Gold Tumbles Below $1,300 to Six-Week Low Before Fed Statement. Gold for immediate delivery lost as much as 1.4 percent to $1,292.95 an ounce, the lowest level since Aug. 8, and traded at $1,294.79 at 9:26 a.m. in Singapore, sliding for a third day. Bullion for December delivery slid as much as 1.3 percent to $1,293 on the Comex in New York, the lowest since Aug. 8.

• Dimon Tells JPMorgan Staff to Brace for More Regulatory Woes. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon told employees to prepare for more legal woes while the bank undertakes an “unprecedented effort” to comply with regulations. “We are all well aware of the news around the legal and regulatory issues facing our company, and in the coming weeks and months we need to be braced for more to come,” Dimon said today in an e-mail to JPMorgan’s more than 250,000 employees (JPM:US).

• Adobe’s(ADBE) Shift to Subscriptions Puts Brakes on Profit, Sales. Adobe Systems Inc.shares rose after the largest maker of graphic-design tools said it amassed more than 1 million customers for its online services amid a shift away from software installed on personal computers. A 47 percent jump in the number of Web subscribers, which exceeded some analysts’ estimates, coincided with a drop in sales and profit. Revenue for the period through August declined 7.9 percent to $995.1 million, the company said in a statement today, missing the $1.01 billion average of analysts’ projections compiled by Bloomberg.

Wall Street Journal:

• Obama Goes to War. The President finds an enemy he's willing to bomb—Republicans.

MarketWatch.com:

• Equity allocations hit highest level since Feb. 2011, BofA Merrill survey finds.

• The richest households live near the Capitol.

Zero Hedge:

• Largest LBO Ever Prepares For Largest Non-Financial Bankruptcy In 30 Years.

• Look Who's Winning. (graph)

• German Elections: A Nailbiter With Days To Go.

• Don't Catch The Liquidity-Impacted EM Falling Knife (Yet). 

• Meet America's Growing "Lower Class".

• Here It Comes: Obama Calls For Gun Control, Again, In Aftermath Of Shipyard Shootings.

Business Insider:

• PRESENTING: Your Ultimate Guide To The Most Anticipated Fed Announcement In Years.

• Everyone Loves The iPhone 5S.

• Lawmakers Want To Know How Alleged Navy Yard Shooter Got A Security Clearance Despite Troubled Past.

• What Clubgoers Really Think About The Drug 'Molly,' And Why It Has Officials So Worried.

• Obamacare Is Secretly A Bailout Of State And Local Governments.

• CREDIT SUISSE: 3D Printing Is Going To Be Way Bigger Than What The 3D Printing Companies Are Saying.

New York Times:

• Volkswagen Says It Will Bring Electric Vehicle to U.S. in Two Years. Volkswagen, the largest of the European automakers, will bring its first electric car to the United States in two years, joining an increasingly crowded field of battery-powered vehicles on the market.

Reuters:

• U.S. internet sales tax bill to follow seven principles. Legislation that the U.S. House of Representatives will soon take up on allowing states to tax online purchases will follow seven major principles, including keeping the system simple for small businesses and ensuring it will not lead to new taxes, sources present at talks on the matter said on Tuesday.

• White House budget office urges agencies to prepare for possible shutdown. The White House budget office directed federal agencies on Tuesday to prepare for the possibility of a federal government shutdown should Democrats and Republicans fail to find a budget compromise by the end of September.

• U.S. must cut $2 trillion over 10 yrs to stabilize debt-CBO. U.S. lawmakers are far from finished with the job of deficit-cutting, the Congressional Budget Office warned on Tuesday, saying that $2 trillion in additional savings is needed over the next 10 years just to stabilize long-term U.S. debt. 

• U.S. SEC prepares for hedge fund advertising blitz. Investors pull $20.3 bln from U.S. bond funds in September -TrimTabs. 

• Apple(AAPL) iPhone 5C orders 'not overwhelming': carrier source. Pre-orders for Apple Inc's new plastic-backed, brightly colored iPhone 5C have not been "overwhelming," and supply of both that model as well as a more expensive phone has been disappointing, a source at a U.S. wireless carrier told Reuters on Tuesday.

Financial Times:

• Housing price surge begs question of China’s leaders. Residential prices soared in China’s biggest cities in August, raising the possibility that the government will take fresh measures to cool the red-hot market. Some investors and analysts have started to express concern about whether China’s property market is veering into dangerous bubble territory, but the government has so far taken a much more dovish line.

China Daily:

• China Demand for Crab Falls on Anti-Luxury Campaign. Demand for hairy crabs from Yangcheng Lake near Shanghai have "dropped significantly" from previous years mainly because of a government ban on extravagant spending, citing Yang Weilong, chairman of the lake's crab industry group.

China Securities Journal:

• China Faces Risk in Holding U.S. Treasuries. China faces rising risks in holding U.S. Treasuries, Zhang Monan, a researcher with the State Information Center under the National Development and Reform Commission, wrote. China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries aren't safe, Zhang wrote. China "must" change the situation of holding "too much" U.S. Treasuries, Zhang said.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 110.25 +1.5 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (FDX)/1.50

• (SCS)/.25

• (ORCL)/.56

• (MLHR)/.38

• (CBRL)/1.34

• (GIS)/.70

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST  

• Housing Starts for August are estimated to rise to 917K versus 896K in July.

• Building Permits for August are estimated to rise to 950K versus 943K in July.

2:00 pm EST 

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark fed funds rate at .25%. 

• Fed pace of MBS purchases estimated at $40B versus $40B prior.

• Fed pace of Treasury purchases estimated at $40B versus $45B prior.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,200,000 barrels versus a -219,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +500,000 barrels versus a +1,658,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +500,000 barrels versus a +2,586,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.5% versus a +.8% gain the prior week.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bernanke speaking, Italian Senate vote on Berlusconi, Japan Trade Balance, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, CSFB Steel/Mining Conference and the (DKS) Analyst Day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Lower Energy Prices, Short-Covering, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.59 +1.46%
• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.06 +.22%
• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.27 +.49%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.88 +2.29%

• ISE Sentiment Index 157.0 +42.73%

• Total Put/Call .75 -16.67%

• NYSE Arms .83 -12.85% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.14 -1.90%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 133.85 +1.47%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 91.0 +1.11%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 292.22 -1.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.75 unch.

• TED Spread 24.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.5 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 247.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $131.10/Metric Tonne -2.24%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.70 -5.3 points
• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.90 -1.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +3 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +178 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/reatail sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Europe August Car Sales Drop as Demand Lowest on Record. European car sales fell in August, bringing deliveries this year to the lowest since records began in 1990, as record joblessness in the euro region hurt deliveries at Volkswagen AG (VOW), PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG) and Fiat SpA. (F). Registrations dropped 4.9 percent to 686,957 vehicles from 722,458 cars a year earlier, the Brussels-based European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, or ACEA, said today in a statement. Eight-month sales declined 5.2 percent to 8.14 million autos. “We’re still in red territory,” Florent Couvreur, a Paris-based analyst at CM-CIC Securities, said by phone. “When people say we’ve reached the bottom, I say, ‘watch out,’ because the market is still decreasing. The drop is a little less steep, but we’re still falling because of the bad macroeconomic environment.” 

• Prada Weighed Down by Euro Strength as Earnings Miss Estimates. Prada SpA (PRP), the Italian owner of the Miu Miu and Church’s luxury brands, said the euro’s strength will weigh more heavily on full-year earnings than some analysts anticipate after first-half profit missed estimates. The currency’s appreciation against the yen and the dollar “may be possibly not fully considered in some of the forecasts that we have seen coming from the market at the moment,” Chief Financial Officer Donatello Galli said on a conference call. 

• Merkel Says German Election Is Decision Time for Euro’s Future. Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Germany’s election in five days will be a referendum on the euro’s future stability, as she appealed to voters to reward her handling of the debt crisis with a third term. Merkel, speaking at a rally of her Christian Democratic Union party in the eastern city of Magdeburg, cast the national vote on Sept. 22 as a decision between her policy of conditional bailouts for weaker euro countries and what she portrayed as plans by Germany’s opposition to pool the currency bloc’s debt.

• European Stocks Retreat From a Five-Year High on Lloyds. European stocks declined from a five-year high as investors sold holdings in companies from Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) to Continental AG. Lloyds dropped 3.5 percent after the U.K. government sold a 3.2 billion-pound ($5.1 billion) stake in the lender. Continental and Galp Energia SGPS SA fell at least 2.5 percent as investors sold shares in the companies. Total SA (FP) retreated 1.3 percent following a report that Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA may dispose of its 4 percent stake in the French oil producer. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.5 percent to 311.95 at the close in London.

• China Developer’s 20% Loan After Bank Rebuff Signals Risk. China property developer Zhang Fuguo was rejected by banks for a loan to help keep building two office towers in the central city of Zhengzhou. So he turned to a manufacturer of water and gas meters. The 50 million yuan ($8.2 million) loan last month at a 20 percent interest rate will help Zhang pay workers and buy materials and was like “delivering coal on a snowy day,” he said. It was less so for one board member at lender Henan Suntront Technology Co. (300259), who abstained from approval on concern that Zhang’s company would fail to repay the debt. So-called entrusted loans, in which banks are “entrusted” with funds as middlemen between companies, increasingly grease the wheels of China’s economy, withstanding a crackdown on shadow banking this year and rising to a record 293.8 billion yuan in August. The increase was part of a surge in non-bank credit that may add to default risks threatening Premier Li Keqiang’s efforts to sustain 7 percent expansion this decade. 

• China Stocks Fall Most Since July as FDI Slows. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 2.1 percent to 2,185.56 at the close, the most since July 8. A report showed foreign-direct investment grew 0.6 percent last month, compared with the Bloomberg estimate of 12.5 percent growth. 

• Crude Falls for Third Day as Syria Risk Wanes. WTI for October delivery declined $1.42, or 1.3 percent, to $105.17 a barrel at 2:22 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 22 percent above the 100-day average. Brent for November settlement slid $1.92, or 1.7 percent, to $108.15 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

• Obamacare Blamed by Seniors for Higher Costs, Medicare Changes. More than half of senior citizens surveyed mistakenly attributed rising costs of their medicines to Obamacare, a misunderstanding that is contributing to the law’s unpopularity as a major provision goes into effect.

• Former NYSE CEO Thain Says Stock Dark Pools Should Be Closed. CIT Group Inc. (CIT) Chief Executive Officer John Thain, the former head of the New York Stock Exchange, said there’s too much fragmentation and insufficient transparency in the stock market. “Dark pools” that allow for trading of stocks outside of exchanges should be eliminated, Thain, 58, said in an interview with Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.” “The biggest problem is the fragmentation, you can trade stocks in 50 different places.”

• Mass Shootings Fuel Fear, Account for Fraction of Murders. The mass slaughters listed in the report caused the deaths of 547 people. Over the same three decades through 2012, that’s less than a tenth of 1 percent of the 559,347 people the Federal Bureau of Investigation estimates were murdered in America.

• AT&T(T) Said to Seek Sale of Cell Towers Valued at $5 Billion.

Wall Street Journal:

• Carrier Sources Say iPhone 5S(AAPL) Inventory on Friday to be “Grotesquely” Low. If you are hoping to get an iPhone 5S on Friday, be prepared to have to work for it. Sources at multiple U.S. carriers say that the inventory of the new phone is significantly less than expected.

• Futures Regulator Pursues J.P. Morgan Over 'Whale' Trades. CFTC Probes Whether Large Position Distorted Prices as Other Agencies Near Settlement With Bank.

• Microsoft(MSFT) Boosts Dividend by 22%, Sets $40 Billion Buyback. Analysts Had Hinted Dividend Increase Above 15% Might Indicate Response to Investor Pressure.

Fox News:

• Warren Buffett: Scrap ObamaCare and Start Over. You know things are bad for President Obama when even Warren Buffett has soured on Obamacare and says that "we need something else." Money Morning writes: "Healthcare costs in the United States are like a tapeworm eating at our economic body. "Those words come from famed investor Warren Buffett, who said he would scrap Obamacare and start all over. "'We have a health system that, in terms of costs, is really out of control,' he added. 'And if you take this line and you project what has been happening into the future, we will get less and less competitive. So we need something else.' "Buffett insists that without changes to Obamacare average citizens will suffer. "'What we have now is untenable over time,' said Buffett, an early supporter of President Obama. 'That kind of a cost compared to the rest of the world is really like a tapeworm eating, you know, at our economic body.'

• Navy gunman had federal clearance despite disturbing history. Aaron Alexis, the Navy veteran who gunned down 12 people at a Washington military facility Monday, had his federal security clearance renewed just two months before his rampage, despite a disturbing history of psychological problems and violent behavior involving guns.

CNBC:

• 'Out of control' Fed should be abolished: McNealy. (video) The Federal Reserve has become a "marketing department" for the government and "shouldn't be in any business at all," Scott McNealy, co-founder of SunMicrosystems and Harvard-trained economist, told CNBC on Tuesday.

• Can the mortgage market crash again? During the height of the housing boom, in 2006 and 2007, one of the fundamental tenets of home mortgage lending flew out the window: the borrower's ability to repay the loan. A broad swath of lenders simply took it out of the equation, figuring that since home prices were rising so fast, borrowers could simply sell their way out of any trouble.

• Defeat of Larry Summers could lead to a government shutdown.

Zero Hedge: 

• Holiday-Shopping Season Forecast To Be Worst Since 2009.

• Homebuilder Sentiment Misses By Most Since April. (graph)

• What Is The FOMC Watching?

• Spot The Cyclical Recovery (In Poverty Rates And Income...). (graph)

• Brazil Bails On US State Visit Over Illegal Spying; Demands "Full Public Apology".

• What Happened The Last Time Equity And Bond Risk Decoupled? (graph)

• Hilsenrath Highlights The Fed's Taper Trilemma.

Business Insider:

• Aerial Photos Show Colorado's Astonishing Transformation After Flooding.

• JIM ROGERS: 'Bernanke Is Going To Go Down In History As An Absolute Disaster'.

U.S. Census Bureau:

• Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2012. A comparison of real household income over the past five years shows an 8.3 percent decline since 2007, the year before the nation entered an economic recession.

Reuters:

• Navigating the financial labyrinth of Germany's Landesbanken. To the casual observer, the Landesbanken's results for the first half of this year might suggest Germany's publicly-owned regional banks are in good financial health. But the headline numbers belie a more complex reality.

• Iron ore at one-week trough, buyers scarce ahead of China holiday.

• Italy likely to raise VAT sales tax in October-government source. Italy is "highly likely" to raise value-added tax (VAT) in October, a government source said on Tuesday, after initially delaying the hike due to political tensions. 

• U.S. SEC charges 23 firms in short-sale crackdown; 22 settle. Twenty-two investment firms will collectively pay more than $14.4 million in sanctions to settle civil charges in connection with a broad crackdown by federal regulators into illegal short-selling practices, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said on Tuesday.

• Leading U.S. House Democrat Sees Tough Fight Over Government Shutdown.

Echoing fears that European policymakers remain in a state of cognitive dissonance – recognizing the need for root-and-branch overhaul of peripheral banks, but backtracking on joint liability plans – Christopher Flowers, the legendary FIG investor who now runs the £2.3 billion ($3.5 billion) private equity group JC Flowers, sounded the alarm over the negative sovereign-bank feedback loop. In a shot across the bows of market bulls, who cite the return of capital flows to weaker eurozone states, Flowers issued a stark warning: "There is a scenario where we have a Lehman-type event: we wake up some Thursday and a big country is in trouble. "And the ECB will have to decide to support banks x, y, z. And then the ECB will, in fact, decide to own bank x, y, z.


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Corriere:

• Berlusconi to Relaunch Party With Video Message Today. Video message today to include launch of reformed Forza Italia party. Berlusconi to declare he's "staying on the field, not giving up".

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.27%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) HMOs -1.20% 2) Agriculture -.45% 3) Biotech -.32%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• NTT, S, DK, BCS, BGFV, TCBI, PHG, ULTA, BERY, OUTR, BOHU, WERN, MTZ, GLT, TTWO, BTH, GPRE, FDS, SHOO, NSH, JKS, XONE, TAHO, KS, COTY, BMS, SWFT, CNW, RKT, CAF, CHEF, BITA and GCAP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ADBE 2) MON 3) AET 4) AKAM 5) JNK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GOOG 2) YHOO 3) GIS 4) MOS 5) AMRN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.47%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +1.16% 2) Education +.88% 3) Oil Service +.79%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BOFI, CETV, KYTH, RPRX, ARO, EZCH, SWY, PERI, NQ, CLNE and HLF

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RPRX 2) AEO 3)  WLL 4) SWKS 5) PFE
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SWY 2) WMT 3) CMI 4) TXT 5) HPQ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume