Thursday, April 17, 2014

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:45 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.39%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +1.53% 2) Defense +.88% 3) I-Banks +.87%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CMG, SNDK, BWP, BHI, MS and BWP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) RSH 2) CAR 3) GOOG 4) OIH 5) SD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SABR 2) UNH 3) UNP 4) PEP 5) WMT
Charts:
0 comments

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 1:03 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • U.S. Grain Losses Seen Up to $6.3 Billion on China Ban. China’s rejection of U.S. grain grown with seeds genetically modified by Syngenta AG may cost U.S. growers as much as $6.3 billion in losses through August 2015, a U.S. trade group estimated. The Asian nation turned away at least 1.45 million metric tons of corn since late November, “substantially greater” than the 908,800 reported by the Chinese government, the National Grain & Feed Association, based in Washington, said today in a statement. The grain contained a gene developed by Basel, Switzerland’s Syngenta, and that MIR 162 variety hasn’t been approved by China. 
  • Weibo Said to Raise $286 Million With Bottom-End Pricing. Weibo Corp., the Chinese microblogging service owned by Sina Corp. and Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd., raised $285.6 million its U.S. initial public offering after pricing the shares at the low end of a marketed range, people with knowledge of the matter said. Weibo sold 16.8 million Class A American depositary shares for $17 each, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing a private matter. The shares had been offered for $17 to $19 apiece. The Beijing-based company’s shares will be listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol WB.
  • Asia Stocks Rise Second Day on U.S. Data, Yellen Comments. Asian stocks rose for a second day after U.S. industrial production increased more than forecast in March and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank remains committed to supporting the economic recovery. GungHo Online Entertainment Inc. (3765) surged 17 percent in Tokyo after the Internet games maker said six of its titles are generating profit. Canon Inc. gained 2.2 percent after the Nikkei reported earnings in the March quarter increased about 50 percent. Santos Ltd. sank 1.5 percent in Sydney as first-quarter sales at the oil and natural gas explorer missed estimates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 138.44 as of 9:30 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets open in Hong Kong and China.
  • Rubber Surplus Seen Exceeding Forecast as Thai Output Revised. A surplus in the global natural-rubber market this year will be 78 percent more than estimated in December as demand growth weakens and production in Thailand surpasses forecasts, according to The Rubber Economist Ltd. The glut is seen at 652,000 metric tons in 2014, compared with 366,000 tons predicted in December, Prachaya Jumpasut, managing director of the London-based industry adviser, said in an e-mail. The surplus for 2013, previously estimated at 336,000 tons, was put at 714,000 tons.
  • Senators Urge Ban on Banks’ Physical Commodity Ownership. U.S. banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) should be banned from owning commodities businesses because they could threaten the institutions and global supply chains, Senators Sherrod Brown and Elizabeth Warren told the Federal Reserve. Financial holding companies “should be prohibited from owning physical assets like warehouses, pipelines and tankers,” Democrats Brown of Ohio and Warren of Massachusetts said in a letter to the Fed today. “These activities pose significant safety and soundness, legal and reputational risks to the institutions.”
  • IBM(IBM) Sales Fall Again, Pressuring Rometty’s Profit Goal. Ginni Rometty’s profit goal for IBM just got harder to reach. First-quarter revenue for the computer-services company led by Rometty fell 3.9 percent from a year earlier to $22.5 billion, the eighth straight decline as sales continued to tumble in its hardware unit and in developing countries. Analysts had estimated $22.9 billion on average. IBM shares fell 3.9 percent in late trading. 
  • Google Revenue Falls Short of Estimates, Ad Prices Drop. Google Inc. (GOOG:US)’s costs are rising as the search provider finds it harder to keep up with a shift to advertising on mobile phones and sales fell short of estimates. Revenue, excluding sales passed on to partners, was $12.2 billion in the first quarter, missing a projection by analysts for $12.3 billion, according to data (GOOGL:US) compiled by Bloomberg. Reporting for the first time since Google held a de-facto split of the stock earlier this month, the shares fell as much as 6.4 percent in extended trading. The stock advanced 3.8 percent to $556.54 at the close in New York.
Wall Street Journal: 
Fox News:
  • Fox News Poll: Many voters say Obama lies to the country on important matters. About six in ten American voters think Barack Obama lies to the country on important matters some or most of the time, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday. Thirty-seven percent think Obama lies “most of the time,” while another 24 percent say he lies “some of the time.” Twenty percent of voters say “only now and then” and 15 percent “never.”
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: 
  • The Richest Man In Asia Is Selling Everything In China. Here’s a guy you want to bet on– Li Ka-Shing. Li is reportedly the richest person in Asia with a net worth well in excess of $30 billion, much of which he made being a shrewd property investor. Li Ka-Shing was investing in mainland China back in the early 90s, way back before it became the trendy thing to do. Now, Li wants out of China. All of it. Since August of last year, he’s dumped billions of dollars worth of his Chinese holdings. The latest is the $928 million sale of the Pacific Place shopping center in Beijing– this deal was inked just days ago. Once the deal concludes, Li will no longer have any major property investments in mainland China. This isn’t a person who became wealthy by being flippant and scared. So what does he see that nobody else seems to be paying much attention to?
ValueWalk:
Business Insider:
Financial Times:
  • Too Much Leverage Makes Banks Too Vulnerable. Banks have too little capital, new regulations "enshrine" excess leverage, Robert Jenkins, former member of BOE's Financial Policy Committee, writes in FT op-ed.
Market News International:
  • China March FDI Falls 1.47% y/y. March non-financial foreign direct investment in China fell 1.47% y/y to $12.24b, without citing a source.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.0 -.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 87.75 +.25 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.10%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.15%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (BLK)/4.10
  • (BBT)/.70
  • (PPG)/1.85
  • (BHI)/.78
  • (KEY)/.24
  • (HON)/1.26
  • (AN)/.72
  • (SHW)/1.10
  • (BX)/.55
  • (ADS)/2.71
  • (UNH)/1.09
  • (SLB)/1.20
  • (DD)/1.59
  • (MAT)/.07
  • (GE)/.32
  • (FITB)/.42
  • (MS)/.60
  • (BAX)/1.09
  • (PM)/1.16
  • (PEP)/.75
  • (GS)/3.49
  • (UNP)/2.37
  • (CMG)/2.87
  • (WERN)/.20
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 315K versus 300K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2780K versus 2776K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for April is estimated to rise to 10.0 versus 9.0 in March. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German inflation data, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for April, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (LULU) analyst day and (DIS) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
0 comments

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Defense/Transport Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:07 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.37 -7.94%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.47 +.38%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.54 -.70%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.54 -1.14%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -10.87%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -4.26% 
  • NYSE Arms 1.07 +21.47% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.21 -1.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.11 -5.07%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 35.10 -2.77%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 87.57 +.11%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 281.15 -1.90%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 359.31 -.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.0 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.25 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  • Yield Curve 227.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $116.20/Metric Tonne -.77%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.40 +2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.90 -.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +3.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +73 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
0 comments

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:52 PM
Bloomberg:
  • Ukraine Says Russia Fuels Terror as NATO Boosts Defense. Ukraine accused Russia of fueling “terrorism” in its eastern regions as NATO bolstered the defense of nearby European nations. Government troops pressed on with an anti-separatist offensive that freed an airfield near Kramatorsk yesterday, sending armored vehicles into the Donetsk region town where pro-Russian forces have clashed with police. NATO pledged to hold more military drills in eastern Europe and step up air and naval policing on its flanks. “Russia has a new commodity for export in addition to oil and gas -- terrorism,” Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told a government meeting today in Kiev. “It’s become clear our Russian neighbors have decided to build a new Berlin Wall and want a return to the Cold War.”
  • Russia Sees Euro, Dollar Investments at Risk in Ukraine Backlash. Sanctions over Ukraine may threaten Russia’s investments in assets denominated in euros and U.S. dollars, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said, urging the use of the nation’s wealth funds for domestic projects. “We should now very attentively study the risks of investing into dollar and euro securities, given the geopolitical situation we have right now,” Ulyukayev told lawmakers in Moscow today when questioned on whether returns on foreign securities are too low. 
  • ASML(ASML) Revenue Forecast Trails Estimates on Slowing Demand. ASML Holding NV (ASML), Europe’s largest semiconductor-equipment supplier, predicted sales trailing analysts’ estimates on slowing demand from makers of chips that process functions in devices. The stock fell the most in more than two years. Revenue this quarter will be about 1.6 billion euros ($2.2 billion), ASML, which supplies chipmakers including Samsung Electronics Co. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (2330), said today. Analysts predict 1.7 billion euros, the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. 
  • European Stocks Rise on Earnings as Tesco, Syngenta Gain. European stocks rose the most in six weeks as companies from Tesco Plc to Syngenta (SYNN) AG reported financial results and as data showed American housing and industrial activity increased. Tesco advanced 2.6 percent after reporting trading profit that exceeded projections. Syngenta gained 2.3 percent after posting first-quarter revenue that met estimates and confirming its full-year sales target. GEA Group AG rallied 6.2 percent after agreeing to sell its heat-exchanges unit to Triton Advisers Ltd. ASML Holding NV tumbled the most since August 2011 after forecasting second-quarter sales below projections. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 1.3 percent to 330.82 at the close of trading.
  • BofA(BAC) Slides After Posting Loss Tied to Mortgage Accords. Bank of America Corp. fell the most since June in New York after posting a surprise loss driven by $6 billion of costs tied to mortgage disputes. The stock slid 3.2 percent to $15.87 at 10:25 a.m. as investors assessed the latest in a line of legal expenses that have totaled more than $50 billion at the lender since the financial crisis. The drop was the worst in the 24-company KBW Bank Index today.
  • Technology Slump Fuels Concern Startup Values May Follow. The decline in publicly traded technology stocks is fueling concern that Silicon Valley startups will follow with plummeting valuations. In the past month, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN:US), Facebook Inc., TripAdvisor Inc. and Netflix Inc. have plunged at least 13 percent each. The trading days of April 10 and 11 marked the Nasdaq Composite Index (CCMP)’s biggest two-day drop since 2011 and the index is off more than 7 percent since early March. If the stock declines continue, young entrepreneurs may have to accept more realistic valuations for their companies, said George Zachary, a partner at Charles River Ventures in Menlo Park, California. 
  • GM(GM) Vetoed Better Ignition Part to Save Money, Advocates Say. General Motors Co. chose not to use a more robust ignition-switch part in Chevrolet Cobalts and other small cars while they were being designed, a decision that may have led to deaths, safety advocates said. GM engineers in 2001 designed an alternative to the spring used in an ignition switch for the 2003 Saturn Ion before it was rejected, according to a letter sent to Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra today by Joan Claybrook, a former head of the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, and Clarence Ditlow, executive director of the Center for Auto Safety.
  • Stumbling S&P 500 Reaches Worst Stretch of Election Cycle. The political calendar is working against investors. Already hit by concerns valuations are too high just as the Federal Reserve withdraws stimulus, the equity market is entering what has historically been the worst period of the presidential cycle, the stretch before midterm elections. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has lost 2.5 percent and 0.3 percent on average in the second and third quarters of years like this one, according to data compiled by S&P Capital IQ and Bloomberg. Stocks in the benchmark gauge are about one percentage point away from matching such a loss after posting the biggest weekly slide since 2012.
Barron's:
  • Hedge Funds’ Worst Start Since 2008: Preqin. Hedge funds are coming off their worst first-quarter performance since the dark days of 2008. That’s the contention this morning from data supplier Preqin, whose all hedge-fund strategies benchmark gained a meager 1.23% for the period. It’s a shift from the last two years, when the early part of the year was strong. The same Preqin index gained 6.07% and 3.76% in the first quarter of 2012 and 2013, respectively.
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC: 
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters: 
Telegraph:

Xinhua:
  • Shanghai Won't Ease Property Control Policies. Shanghai will continue its "strict" property control policies, citing Liu Haisheng, head of the city's housing authority. The city will keep increasing housing land supply this year, the report said.
0 comments

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:16 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.48%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) HMOs -1.36% 2) Hospitals -1.31% 3) Semis -1.01%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • BAC, BIS, ASML, CNSI, ADTN, LLTC, CSX, STJ, AEM, NTRS, USB, CS, TXN, PFPT, MKSI, VIIX, BLUE, KLAC, LRCX, CSH, ADI, UNH, NGL, ESV and INFY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FSL 2) BX 3) GOOG 4) BHI 5) WYNN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BAC 2) WFM 3) UNH 4) TWTR 5) NTAP
Charts:
0 comments

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 11:33 AM
Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.47%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +1.79% 2) Biotech +1.59% 3) Internet +1.28%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PDS, IBKR, YHOO, SODA, IMGN, ARWR, SFUN, ATHL, NPSP, RGEN, LPI and AWAY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) END 2) DNR 3) NOW 4) SWKS 5) WY
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) YHOO 2) INTC 3) YELP 4) CAR 5) SODA
Charts:
0 comments
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)