Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,881.14 +.95%

• DJIA 16,512.80 +.93%

• NASDAQ 4,123.89 +1.19%

• Russell 2000 1,128.80 +.51%

• S&P 500 High Beta 31.21 +1.36%

• Wilshire 5000 19,698.40 +.97%

• Russell 1000 Growth 869.92 +1.26%

• Russell 1000 Value 956.27 +.78%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 453.11 +.86%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,523.36 +.56%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 903.51 +1.19%

• Transports 7,698.84 +1.49%

• Utilities 543.81 -1.42%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 110.01 +1.51%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.44 +1.06%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,163.14 -.47%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 977.05 -.03%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 217,645 +.52%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 174 -3

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 38.46 +84.64%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 402,237 -1.90%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,651,521 +1.96%

• Total Put/Call .96 -15.04%

• OEX Put/Call .71 -78.55%

• ISE Sentiment 113.0 +39.51%

• NYSE Arms .86 -43.79%

• Volatility(VIX) 12.91 -8.18%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.13 -2.16%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.14 -.81%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.76 -7.51%

• Smart Money Flow Index 10,997.61 +.21%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.574 Trillion -.39%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$1.392 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 29.8 -13.7%
• AAII % Bears 29.5 +13.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 307.14 -1.14%

• Crude Oil 99.76 -.92%

• Reformulated Gasoline 294.45 -2.59%

• Natural Gas 4.67 +.78%

• Heating Oil 292.23 -2.26%

• Gold 1,302.90 -.05%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 188.63 -2.48%

• Copper 307.0 -1.65%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 375.0 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Ton -4.51%

• Lumber 341.50 +1.76%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,547.72 -1.31%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.2% +10 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0885 -12.89%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.80 +.36%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.90 +6.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -26.60 -1.0 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 38.0% chance of no change, 62.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/18

• US Dollar Index 79.52 -.31%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.95 +.34%

• Yield Curve 216.0 -7 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.58% -8 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.253 Trillion -.01%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.33 +.70%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 138.0 -.28%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 34.11 -3.44%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 87.48 -2.46%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 251.20 -2.26%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 86.44 -.64%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 273.10 -3.75%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 353.35 +.99%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19% -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 20.75 -1.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 +1.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.50 -2.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.02 -4.36%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 78.16 -6.60%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 281.02 -4.03%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 84.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.787 Trillion +.18%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,031.60 -1.10%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 320,000 +3,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% +10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.29% -4 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 333.20 -5.88%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.9 +.6 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.40% +20 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.68/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1017.0 +5.17%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,066.25 -.44%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 264,228 +1.97%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.29%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.13%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +6.6%

• Telecom +4.0%

• Coal +3.8%

• Homebuilders +3.2%

• Airlines +2.5%

Lagging Sectors

• Computer Hardware -.8% 

• Hospitals -1.0%

• Utilities -1.4%

• Disk Drives -2.6%

• Alt Energy -2.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (19)

• SUSS, POM, FUR, FURX, VDSI, ENR, LMNX, WTW, AZPN, HWAY, DV, KFRC, OABC, LOGM, CRUS, PGI, COLM, ECHO and ORB

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (38)

• FET, VSAT, SBH, MBFI, SJW, MDAS, WRLD, VOLC, CNQR, NANO, STCK, GNRC, HAE, PNRA, HOS, JEC, WTS, PRXL, GTLS, CAS, MAS, FARO, NCR, SBSI, DLB, DWA, COH, LOCK, PLUS, OPLK, FEIC, UACL, SLAB, STMP, JDSU, POWI, CAMP and CVLT

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Global Growth Fears, Yen Strength, Biotech/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.26 +.08%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.02 -.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.76 -3.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.17 +2.99%

• ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 +17.65%

• Total Put/Call .97 +19.75% 

• NYSE Arms .91 -29.19% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.22 unch.

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.16 -.74%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 34.11 -.96%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 87.48 +.11%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 279.16 -.88%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 353.35 +.44%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 unch.

• TED Spread 20.75 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 216.0 -4.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $106.0/Metric Tonne +.57%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.90 +8.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -26.60 -1.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -67 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Troops Move on Rebel Stronghold Defying Putin. Ukraine sent armored vehicles and artillery to retake Slovyansk, a stronghold for pro-separatist forces, defying President Vladimir Putin’s demand to pull back troops with Russia’s army massed across the border. Interior Ministry forces were dispatched at 4:30 a.m. local time to drive out militants and free hostages, including eight international monitors, minister Arsen Avakov said on Facebook. Rebels shot down two helicopters, killing two pilots, the Defense Ministry said. Acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov said in a statement “many” rebels were killed, wounded or captured.’’ The United Nations Security Council is preparing to hold an emergency meeting at Russia’s request.

• Bank of America(BAC) Seen Entering Side Door of Russia Bank Loan Deal. Bank of America Corp. found a side door into a loan for a Russian bank last month to avoid publicity as tensions escalated in the Ukraine, according to four people with knowledge of the matter. When the financing for Credit Bank of Moscow was announced in a March 27 statement, Bank of America wasn’t among the 17 lenders listed. The U.S. lender pulled out of the group before the deal was completed and rejoined after the announcement when the borrower increased the loan under a so-called accordion feature, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private.

• European Stocks Retreat on Clashes in Eastern Ukraine. European stocks declined, paring their third weekly gain, as Ukrainian forces clashed with pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country. Software AG slid 2.1 percent after first-quarter sales missed analysts’ estimates. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc rallied the most since January 2012 after saying quarterly profit tripled and impairments fell. Deutsche Telekom AG, which owns two-thirds of T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS), added 1.1 percent as people familiar with the matter said Sprint Corp. may bid for the American mobile-phone operator. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.2 percent to 337.76 at the close of trading.

• Iron Ore Shipments From Port Hedland to China at Record. Iron ore exports to China from Australia’s Port Hedland surged to a record in April as stockpiles in the biggest buyer reached an all-time high. Shipments from the world’s largest bulk export terminal totaled 28.9 million metric tons last month compared with 27 million tons in March and 19.3 million tons a year earlier, data on the port authority’s website show. Total exports were also a record 34.8 million tons last month, up from 34.4 million tons in March and 26 million tons in April 2013, the data show. Stockpiles at ports in China rose 1.3 percent to a record 105.19 million tons in the week ended April 25 and have climbed 29 percent this year, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. Iron ore entered a bear market in March and has lost 21 percent this year on prospects for increased global supply.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Ukraine Launches Offensive to Regain Slovyansk. Operation Meets Resistance From Militants Who Shoot Down Two Helicopters. Ukraine launched an assault Friday to regain control of the pro-Russian separatist stronghold of Slovyansk, meeting stiff resistance from militants who shot down two helicopters in the most serious fighting since Kiev began losing control near Russia's border. Two Ukrainian soldiers and many militants were killed, Ukraine's acting president said. 

• Crisis in Ukraine: Streaming Coverage:

Fox News: 

• Boehner announces special committee on Benghazi, Kerry subpoenaed. House Republicans moved on two fronts Friday to dig for answers on Benghazi, with Speaker John Boehner announcing a special committee to investigate and a key panel subpoenaing Secretary of State John Kerry to testify. In a significant shift, Boehner announced that the House will vote on establishing a select committee to investigate, on the heels of newly released emails that raised additional questions about the White House's response. Top Republicans claimed those emails should have been released to Congress months ago, and Boehner signaled those concerns prompted him to rethink the need for a select committee.

• Up to 350 dead, hundreds missing after Afghanistan landslide buries village.

MarketWatch:

• Treasurys recover losses on Ukraine fears. Yields recover from jobs-induced spike; 10-year yield at 2.60%.

• Goldman’s(GS) executive compensation gets an ‘F’ and more banking reads.

CNBC: 

• If Russia goes over the economic cliff, it won’t go alone.

• Alibaba's Achilles' Heel: Why mobile may be a problem.

• Obama: More sanctions if Russia disrupts election.

ZeroHedge: 

• Roof Snipers Appear In Odessa.

• Ukraine's "Anti-Terrorist" Operation Turns Deadly In Odessa - Live Feed.

• Europe's "Recovery" Leaves 25% Of Spanish, Greek Workforce Unemployed. (graph)

• Where The April Job Additions Were. (graph)

• Workers Younger Than 55 Lost 259K Jobs In April. (graph)

• Q1 GDP Takes Another Hit As Factory Orders Miss. (graph)

• One Million People Dropped Out Of Labor Force In April: Participation Rate Plummets To Lowest Since 1978. (graph)

ValueWalk: 

• Large Banks Unprofitable Without Government Backing: Penn Study.

Business Insider:

• HIGH-SCHOOL TEACHER: In 16 Years Of Teaching, Nothing Has Disrupted My Classroom More Than Snapchat's New Update.

• 10 Photos Of The Ukrainian Military Assault That Russia Says Ended The Last Hope For Peace.

• GMO: The Stock Market Looks Irrationally Exuberant. (graph)

Real Clear Politics:

• Herridge: WH Benghazi Explanations Are Beginning To Unravel In A Very Public Way. (video)

Reuters: 

• Fed seen hiking rates in June 2015 as U.S. job creation surges. The Federal Reserve could start raising benchmark interest rates in just over a year, based on trading in U.S. short-term interest-rate futures after a government report showed employers added many more jobs than expected in April. 

• Brazil manufacturing sector shrinks in April -PMI. Brazil's manufacturing activity shrank in April, ending a four-month run of meager expansion, as new orders and output cooled, a private survey showed on Friday. The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for the Brazilian manufacturing sector fell to a seasonally adjusted 49.3 in April from 50.6 in March. The 50 mark separates contraction from expansion.

Telegraph:

• Chinese anatomy of a property boom on its last legs. (graph) So now we know what China’s biggest property developer really thinks about the Chinese housing boom. A leaked recording of dinner speech by Vanke Group’s vice-chairman Mao Daqing more or less confirms what the bears have been saying for months. It is a dangerous bubble, and already deflating.

• Low growth seen as Italy's 'Achilles heel'. A in-depth discussion of Italy's economy.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.02%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -2.24% 2) Biotech -1.50% 3) Social Media -1.06%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• EQM, NGVC, SQI, AVD, QLGC, CVD, INVN, BCOR, BYI, AHS, EHTH, VCRA, SBSI, MTW, PCYC, LNKD, SWIR, SGEN, CBM, MSG, IMPV, FI, TTEK, LAYN, EXPE, NWL, AAWW, SKX, TEG, YELP, EPAY, BMRN, ATEN, MSG, KEYW, CBM and ACOR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) AKAM 3) PHM 4) DOW 5) X
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LNKD 2) YELP 3) SO 4) TTEK 5) AVP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.47%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +2.27% 2) Gold & Silver +1.86% 3) Steel +1.68%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WPRT, RBS, CALD, NTRI, ELLI, HOT, MXWL, DGI, TPX, SBAC, WYNN, ACHC, CTCT, MHK, CTB, SPR, FLT and MKTO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MTW 2) FITB 3) INVN 4) EQT 5) KCG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BK 2) WYNN 3) ANR 4) KORS 5) CI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Putin Urges Ukraine to Withdraw Troops as Unrest Persists. Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Ukraine to withdraw forces from its easternmost regions as the International Monetary Fund warned that extra financing may be needed if control of the industrial heartland is lost. In a telephone call yesterday with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin also demanded an end to violence gripping cities in southeastern Ukraine, according to a Kremlin statement. The Ukrainian conflict will top the agenda when Merkel and U.S. President Barack Obama meet today in Washington, according to White House spokesman Jay Carney. 

• Sony Posts Loss Wider Than Forecast as Recovery Founders. Sony Corp., the maker of Xperia smartphones and PlayStation consoles, posted a loss wider than forecast as Chief Executive Officer Kazuo Hirai’s turnaround founders amid slumping consumer electronics sales. Sony posted a preliminary net loss of 130 billion yen ($1.3 billion) in the 12 months ended March, the Tokyo-based company said in earnings reported yesterday. That’s the third downward revision after a February loss projection of 110billion yen, itself a reduction from a revised October forecast for profit of 30 billion yen. The shares fell.

• Most Asian Stocks Fall as Investors Await U.S. Payrolls. Most Asian stocks fell as investors weighed corporate earnings before the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls today. Sony Corp. lost 1.6 percent in Tokyo after the maker of Xperia smartphones and PlayStation consoles cut its earnings forecast for a third time in a year. Macquarie Group Ltd. dropped 1.6 percent as Australia’s biggest investment bank predicted flat profit growth this year. Treasury Wine Estates Ltd. jumped 13 percent in Sydney after the Australian newspaper reported that Pernod Ricard SA is interested in the U.S. assets of the wine maker. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1 percent to 137.94 as of 9:49 a.m in Tokyo, with two stocks falling for each that rose.

• Fed Lists 15 Firms to Get Extra Scrutiny at Special Unit. The Federal Reserve released a list of 15 firms that merit an extra layer of supervision because they pose heightened systemic risks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. The tally published on the Fed’s website today listed the four largest U.S. lenders, the biggest clearing and custody banks such as Bank of New York Mellon Corp., and Wall Street firms Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley. (MS) Other members are insurer American International Group Inc., the General Electric Capital Corp. and four of Europe’s largest financial companies.

Wall Street Journal: 

• German Businesses Urge Halt on Sanctions Against Russia. Vocal Opposition Has Helped Keep Merkel From Endorsing Broader Penalties on Moscow. Angela Merkel is carrying a clear message from Germany's business lobby to the White House: No more sanctions. Several of the biggest names in German business—including chemical giant BASF SE, engineering group Siemens AG, Volkswagen AG, Adidas AG and Deutsche Bank AG—have made their opposition to broader economic sanctions against Russia clear in recent weeks, both in public and in private. As a result, Germany's...

• Acknowledging Mistake, U.S. Regulators Still Struggle to Oversee Derivatives Market. CFTC Says It Published Inaccurate Data on Swaps Similar to 'London Whale' Going Back to November.

• Obama Administration Says 28% of Health-Law Enrollees Are 18 to 34 Years Old. Supporters Say Large Numbers of Young People Needed to Keep Costs Down.

• Retirement Investors Flock Back to Stocks. Equities Account for Highest Percentage of New Contributions Into 401(k) Plans Since Crisis.

• Entrusted Lending Raises Risks In Chinese Finance. Companies Turn to Other Firms, Not Banks, for Loans. With credit tight in China, companies in industries beset by overcapacity are turning to an unconventional source for cash—other companies—in a new rising risk for the country's financial system. These company-to-company loans, known as entrusted lending, have emerged as the fastest-growing part of China's shadow-banking system, which provides credit outside of formal banking channels. Net outstanding entrusted loans... 

Fox News: 

• Internal memos reveal EPA worked behind the scenes to kill Alaska mine project. The Environmental Protection Agency came under fire Thursday after new emails surfaced that allegedly show government officials worked in secret with tribal leaders and other environmental groups to preemptively oppose the controversial Pebble Mine project in Alaska before a review was even conducted.

MarketWatch.com:

• Most jobs created in this recovery are low-wage, study finds. (graph)

CNBC:

• For hedge funds, all aboard the bubble bandwagon. In a letter issued Thursday, the prominent hedge fund Third Point used the same charged word to describe certain stock-market sectors that rival money manager Greenlight Capital had invoked the week before: "Bubble."

• This chart is ‘ominous’ for S&P: Wells Fargo bear. (graph)

Zero Hedge:

• The Great(est Fool) Rotation: Who's Buying, And Who's Selling? (graph)

• Financial Engineering: If You Don't Like The Free Market, Change The Rules.

• How And When The Bubble Finally Bursts: Jeremy Grantham's Take.

• Ukraine Admits "Helpless" Against Pro-Russian Forces; Reinstates Military Conscription.

• France Plays Russian Roulette: Why Europe Is Scared Of Sanctions Against Russia.

• "Weaning The Stock Market Off Casino Capitalism Will Be Anything But Pain-Free".

Business Insider: 

• Police Arrest Over 600 Nationwide In Massive Crackdown On Fast-Growing Latino Gang.

• The Great Cloud Crash. (graph)

• The Alarming State Of Ukraine — And Unnerving Threats From Russia — In One Map.

• NATO OFFICIAL: Russia Is Now An Adversary.

Reuters:

• U.S.-based stock funds attract $4.2 bln over week - Lipper.  

• LinkedIn's(LNKD) sales outlook again falls short. LinkedIn Corp forecast 2014 revenue below Wall Street's expectations on Thursday, underscoring concerns about its ability to sustain its rapid growth and helping to drag its shares more than 3 percent lower.

Evening Recommendations
BMO Capital:

• Rated (MON) Outperform, target $130.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.50 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 87.50 -.5 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures -.03%.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (AXL)/.40

• (CVX)/2.47

• (CVS)1.03

• (EL)/.54

• (MMC)/.80

• (NWL)/.32

• (SNH)/.43

• (SUP)/.21

• (PCYC)/.23

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for April is estimated at 218K versus 192K in March.

• The Unemployment Rate for April is estimated to fall to 6.6% versus 6.7% in March.

• Average Hourly Earnings for April are estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in March. 

9:45 am EST

• ISM New York of April is estimated to rise to 54.0 versus 52.0 in March.

10:00 am EST

• Factor Orders for March are estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.6% gain in February.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI and (SWFT) investor day could impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.