Friday, May 02, 2014

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Putin Urges Ukraine to Withdraw Troops as Unrest Persists. Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Ukraine to withdraw forces from its easternmost regions as the International Monetary Fund warned that extra financing may be needed if control of the industrial heartland is lost. In a telephone call yesterday with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin also demanded an end to violence gripping cities in southeastern Ukraine, according to a Kremlin statement. The Ukrainian conflict will top the agenda when Merkel and U.S. President Barack Obama meet today in Washington, according to White House spokesman Jay Carney. 
  • Sony Posts Loss Wider Than Forecast as Recovery Founders. Sony Corp., the maker of Xperia smartphones and PlayStation consoles, posted a loss wider than forecast as Chief Executive Officer Kazuo Hirai’s turnaround founders amid slumping consumer electronics sales. Sony posted a preliminary net loss of 130 billion yen ($1.3 billion) in the 12 months ended March, the Tokyo-based company said in earnings reported yesterday. That’s the third downward revision after a February loss projection of 110billion yen, itself a reduction from a revised October forecast for profit of 30 billion yen. The shares fell.
  • Most Asian Stocks Fall as Investors Await U.S. Payrolls. Most Asian stocks fell as investors weighed corporate earnings before the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls today. Sony Corp. lost 1.6 percent in Tokyo after the maker of Xperia smartphones and PlayStation consoles cut its earnings forecast for a third time in a year. Macquarie Group Ltd. dropped 1.6 percent as Australia’s biggest investment bank predicted flat profit growth this year. Treasury Wine Estates Ltd. jumped 13 percent in Sydney after the Australian newspaper reported that Pernod Ricard SA is interested in the U.S. assets of the wine maker. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1 percent to 137.94 as of 9:49 a.m in Tokyo, with two stocks falling for each that rose.
  • Fed Lists 15 Firms to Get Extra Scrutiny at Special Unit. The Federal Reserve released a list of 15 firms that merit an extra layer of supervision because they pose heightened systemic risks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. The tally published on the Fed’s website today listed the four largest U.S. lenders, the biggest clearing and custody banks such as Bank of New York Mellon Corp., and Wall Street firms Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley. (MS) Other members are insurer American International Group Inc., the General Electric Capital Corp. and four of Europe’s largest financial companies.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • German Businesses Urge Halt on Sanctions Against Russia. Vocal Opposition Has Helped Keep Merkel From Endorsing Broader Penalties on Moscow. Angela Merkel is carrying a clear message from Germany's business lobby to the White House: No more sanctions. Several of the biggest names in German business—including chemical giant BASF SE, engineering group Siemens AG, Volkswagen AG, Adidas AG and Deutsche Bank AG—have made their opposition to broader economic sanctions against Russia clear in recent weeks, both in public and in private. As a result, Germany's...
  • Entrusted Lending Raises Risks In Chinese Finance. Companies Turn to Other Firms, Not Banks, for Loans. With credit tight in China, companies in industries beset by overcapacity are turning to an unconventional source for cash—other companies—in a new rising risk for the country's financial system. These company-to-company loans, known as entrusted lending, have emerged as the fastest-growing part of China's shadow-banking system, which provides credit outside of formal banking channels. Net outstanding entrusted loans... 
Fox News: 
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
  • For hedge funds, all aboard the bubble bandwagon. In a letter issued Thursday, the prominent hedge fund Third Point used the same charged word to describe certain stock-market sectors that rival money manager Greenlight Capital had invoked the week before: "Bubble."
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
Reuters:
  • LinkedIn's(LNKD) sales outlook again falls short. LinkedIn Corp forecast 2014 revenue below Wall Street's expectations on Thursday, underscoring concerns about its ability to sustain its rapid growth and helping to drag its shares more than 3 percent lower.
Evening Recommendations
BMO Capital:
  • Rated (MON) Outperform, target $130.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.50 +1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 87.50 -.5 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.03%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.03%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (AXL)/.40
  • (CVX)/2.47
  • (CVS)1.03
  • (EL)/.54
  • (MMC)/.80
  • (NWL)/.32
  • (SNH)/.43
  • (SUP)/.21
  • (PCYC)/.23
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for April is estimated at 218K versus 192K in March.
  • The Unemployment Rate for April is estimated to fall to 6.6% versus 6.7% in March.
  • Average Hourly Earnings for April are estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in March. 
9:45 am EST
  • ISM New York of April is estimated to rise to 54.0 versus 52.0 in March.
10:00 am EST
  • Factor Orders for March are estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.6% gain in February.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI and (SWFT) investor day could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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