Monday, May 12, 2014

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Ukrainian Regions Vote in Referendums Rejected as Illegal. Pro-Russian groups hailed a large majority in favor of secession in a referendum they organized in eastern Ukraine that was dismissed as illegitimate by the government in Kiev and its U.S. and European allies. Voters in Donetsk backed the breakaway plan by 90 percent to 10 percent, RIA Novosti reported late yesterday, citing Roman Liagin, head of the election committee. In Luhansk, the other region voting, turnout was 75 percent and the outcome wasn’t initially clear, RIA said. Final results are due later today.
  • Russia Banks Should Be Targets in Sanctions, Boehner Says. Economic sanctions should be imposed on Russia’s banks and President Barack Obama needs to push European nations to take a harder stand against Vladimir Putin’s government, House Speaker John Boehner said. “You go after their banks,” Boehner said on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo” in an interview to be aired tomorrow. “I’m concerned that we’ve not pushed the Europeans hard enough to take a firmer line against the Russians. And our allies in the region are scared to death.”
  • Europe Renews Threat of Russian Sanctions Over Ukraine Vote. European nations intensified their threat of further sanctions against Russia if Ukraine’s May 25 presidential vote doesn’t meet international standards, after President Vladimir Putin visited the annexed Crimea peninsula. “The Russian president must send out more signals of de-escalation so the elections can take place,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said today after talks with French President Francois Hollande in Stralsund, Germany. “We’ve had first signs, but these have to get stronger so eastern and southern Ukraine also get the message that everyone wants free and general presidential elections.” 
  • Xi Says China Must Adapt to ‘New Normal’ of Slower Growth. Chinese President Xi Jinping said the nation needs to adapt to a “new normal” in the pace of economic growth and remain “cool-minded” amid a slowdown that analysts forecast will lead to the weakest expansion since 1990. China’s growth fundamentals haven’t changed and the country is still in a “significant period of strategic opportunity,” Xi said, according to a Xinhua News Agency report on the central government website on May 10. At the same time, the government must prevent risks and take “timely countermeasures to reduce potential negative effects,” he said.
  • Asia Stocks Fall as China Adapts ‘New Normal’ for Growth. Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading for its first drop in three days, after Chinese President Xi Jinping said the nation needs to adapt to a “new normal” in the pace of economic growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 137.78 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo after losing 0.4 percent last week.
  • Europe Deflation Risk Seen by 74% in Global Investor Poll. Financial professionals are optimistic about the global economy, just not as fervent about it as they were at the start of the year. That’s the message from the latest Bloomberg Markets Global Investor Poll, which shows concern about risks ranging from the turmoil in Ukraine to the threat of deflation in Europe.
  • Fed’s Lockhart Sees End of U.S. Stimulus Program This Year. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said he expects the U.S. central bank to end its bond-buying program by the end of the year before raising interest rates in 2015 as the economy gathers pace. The world’s biggest economy will expand about 3 percent this year, which will probably lead the Fed to stop its bond buying in October or December, Lockhart said in a speech in Dubai today. Policy makers last month trimmed monthly bond purchases by $10 billion for the fourth consecutive meeting.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC: 
  • These are bad days for big boys in high finance. (video) These are not happy days for big banks whether on Wall Street or Fleet Street. There's been a steady stream of negative headlines suggesting that five years after the end of the financial crisis, the bell finally may be tolling for too-big-to-fail financial institutions.
Zero Hedge:
BBC:
  • Ukraine Will Fight Back If Attacked by Russia, Parubiy Says. Ukraine's army is ready to fight back should Russia attack it after referendums in Ukrainian eastern regions are completed, citing Head of Defense and Security Council Andriy Parubiy as saying in an interview. Should Russia recognize referendums and take active steps against its neighbor, "I reiterate once again that Ukraine will defend its territory," Parubiy said.
China Daily:
  • Local government policies can't prevent housing prices from falling, Yi Xianrong, a researcher under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, writes in a commentary. Yi cites changes in hukou policy in Nanning city in Guangxi region. Some developers will lower housing prices for fear of a collapse in the supply of their funds, Yi writes. Local government attempts to boost the property market may aggravate investor concerns over risk, Yi writes.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
  • Bullish commentary on (FLS), (BGFV), (CBS), (MCK), (ACT), (SBGI), (NXST), (SLB), (CBI), (CAM), (SVU), (GS) and (BCO).
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.50% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.25 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 84.50 +.75 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (MCK)/2.40
  • (MBI)/.13
  • (RAX)/.12
Economic Releases 
2:00 pm EST
  • The Monthly Budget Statement for April is estimated at $114.0B versus $112.9B in March. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Plosser speaking, BoA Merrill Metals/Mining/Steel Conference, SunTrust Internet/Digital Media Conference, Deutsche Bank Clean Tech/Utilities/Power Conference and (SLAB) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

No comments: