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Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:58 PM
Bloomberg: 
  • Ukrainian Jets Circle Donetsk as Rebels Regroup After Rout. Ukraine stepped up air patrols over Donetsk as a convoy of pro-Russian rebels moved through the city with an anti-aircraft gun in tow, threatening renewed violence after clashes left dozens dead. Mayor Oleksandr Lukyanchenko urged residents of the central part of the city of 1 million people to stay indoors and away from their windows after shots were fired near the local headquarters of the State Security Service. The train of insurgents included two armored personnel carriers, the mayor’s spokesman, Maksym Rovinskyi, said by phone from Donetsk.
  • German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises as Growth to Slow. German unemployment unexpectedly increased for the first time in six months amid signs of a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy that could weigh on the fragile euro-area recovery. The number of people out of work rose a seasonally adjusted 23,937 to 2.905 million in May, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a decline of 15,000, according to the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. 
  • Fed’s Junk-Loan Caution Spurs Creative Accounting Alchemy. Lenders are increasingly allowing junk-rated borrowers to adjust their earnings to make them look more creditworthy as U.S. regulators increase pressure on banks to refrain from underwriting too-risky deals. Such tweaks, which are permissible under more and more credit agreements, can help companies stay in compliance with their loan terms or to raise debt. More than half of loans this year for issuers backed by private-equity firms allow them to boost earnings by an unlimited amount through projected cost savings from acquisitions and “any other action contemplated by the borrower,” said Vince Pisano, an analyst at Xtract Research LLC, citing a sample he’s reviewed. Riskier borrowers may have more incentive to show better financial metrics because the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency are increasing pressure on banks to adhere to underwriting criteria they laid out last year amid concern that the market is getting frothy. Issuers such as Thoma Bravo LLC’s TravelClick Inc. have used adjustments, called add-backs, to raise earnings and decrease leverage when seeking funding.
  • Goldman’s Kostin Sees Hedge Funds Playing in Shrinking Sand Box. Here’s the problem facing hedge funds investing in the stock market this year, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief equity strategist David Kostin: the sand box they like to play in has gotten a lot smaller. For example, equity hedge fund managers tend to have about a quarter of their investments in consumer-discretionary stocks, Kostin told Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers” program today. The dispersion of returns within that group is too small for managers on the prowl for stocks to buy or short, Kostin said.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • China Urges Local Governments to Spend. Beijing Will Take Back Any Unspent Money. China's Finance Ministry said on Wednesday it has asked local governments to speed up spending on infrastructure and other budgeted investments to give sluggish economic growth a shot in the arm.
    Some spending has been relatively slow this year and budgeted funds must reach all local governments by the end of June, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement on its website. If local governments fail to spend the funds without a good reason by the end of September, Beijing will take the unspent money back, the ministry warned. "Certain difficulties [in the economy] cannot be underestimated," the ministry said, pledging to give fiscal spending a larger role in boosting economic growth. "[Local governments] must speed up spending on infrastructure construction projects and make spending materialize as soon as possible," said the statement dated May 21. Over the first four months of the year, China's fiscal spending was up 9.6% year over year, down from an increase of 13.6% over the same period last year, data from the finance ministry showed.
  • Japan Lower House Staff: Casino Bill Won't Be Discussed This Month. Lawmakers Believe It Will Be Difficult for Casino Bill To Get Passed During Current Session.
  • Iron-Ore Prices Unlikely to Rise Soon, NDRC Says. China's Top Economic Planning Agency Blames Flood of Supply. Iron-ore prices are unlikely to rise over the next three months from their current trough, the lowest in nearly two years, China's top economic planning agency said Wednesday. Prices for the mineral, which is forged into steel, depend almost entirely on demand from China, the world's second-largest economy, which consumes two thirds of global ore supply and makes nearly half the world's steel.
  • 'Serious Conditions' at Phoenix Veterans Affairs Office, Watchdog Says. The Phoenix VA Health Care System failed to properly schedule care for its patients, according to an interim report by the inspector general of the Department of Veterans Affairs. Accusations of delayed or denied care appointments have led to calls for an investigation of the department and the resignation of Veterans Affairs Secretary Eric Shinseki. The interim report cited "substantiated serious conditions" in the Phoenix... 
  • New Global Accounting Rules to Affect How Companies Book Revenue. Change Affects When Firms Record Sales; Software Makers Could Do So Sooner, Auto Makers Later.
MarketWatch.com:
  • 43% call Obamacare ‘mostly negative’ for America. When asked to think about their health insurance situation and their ability to access quality health care, just 12% of Americans felt better about this than they did last year, while 20% felt worse, according to a survey released Wednesday by Bankrate.com . And many think that could be due to Obamacare: Almost two out of three Americans don’t think the Affordable Care Act has had a positive impact on American lives, with 43% saying they think the ACA has had a mostly negative impact and 21% saying they think it hasn’t made much, if any, impact. Fewer than one-third of Americans (28% to be exact) say that the ACA has had a mostly positive impact, according to the survey, which polled a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults living in the U.S., some of whom had Obamacare and others who didn’t. “The administration is saying it’s a big success, but the negative feelings are strong still and entrenched,” says Bankrate.com insurance analyst Doug Whiteman.
  • Looming EPA ‘war on coal’ draws business backlash.
CNBC:
  • BlackRock(BLK) CEO says leveraged ETFs could 'blow up' whole industry. BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink said on Wednesday that leveraged exchange-traded funds contain structural problems that could "blow up" the whole industry one day. 
  • Treasury yields dip to new 2014 lows. (video)
ZeroHedge:
  • Thank You Record Stock Buybacks: Median CEO Comp Rises Over $10 Million For First Time.
  • "Euphoria".
  • Mary Meeker Warns "Certainly Some Valuation Excess" In Her Latest 'State Of The Internet' Presentation.
  • The Malinvestment Boom In Coders. (graph)
  • 7Y Treasury Yield Drops Below 2%. (graph)
  • France Hikes Taxes, "Wildly Inaccurate Projections" Hilarity Ensues.
Business Insider:
  • Chechen Militants Are Now Spreading Chaos In Ukraine.
  • Mortgage Rates Fell, Purchase Applications Fell, Refinancings Fell. (graph)
Real Clear Politics:
  • Get Ready For the Subprime Mortgage Crack-Up 2.0. Earlier this month the following headline appeared in the Wall Street Journal: "U.S. Backs Off Tight Mortgage Rules: In Reversal, Administration [HUD/FHA] and Fannie, Freddie Regulator Push to Make More Credit Available to Boost Housing Recovery." Clearly memories as to the causes of the recent housing market collapse are short. Indeed, political pressures are once again increasing on the private sector to degrade sound lending practices.
Reuters:
  • French jobless total hits new high in April. The number of people without a job in France rose by 14,800 in April to a new record, undermining President Francois Hollande's campaign to bring unemployment down. 
  • Russia's Lavrov warns of "fratricidal war" in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday accused the West of pushing Ukraine into a "fratricidal war" and repeated Moscow's calls for an end to the interim Ukrainian government's military action against pro-Russian separatists. Lavrov's remarks were in line with frequent Russian statements placing blame on the United States and EU for the turmoil in Ukraine, where government forces killed dozens of rebels in the eastern Donetsk province on Monday and Tuesday.
Telegraph:
  • Investor greed putting financial stability at risk, warns ECB. Search for higher returns on investments creates risk of "sharp and disorderly unwinding", warns European Central Bank.
CCTV:
  • China's Li Says Global Economy Recovery Faces Uncertainty. China Premier Li reiterated China's proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy.

1 comment:

theyenguy said...

There was a strong trade higher in Credit Investment, AGG, on May 28, 2014. The chart of the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, shows an awesome trade lower from 2.52% to 2.44%, the lowest rate in 2014. Aggregate Credit, AGG, soared beyond its May 15, 2014, high, being driven parabolically higher by 30 Year US Government Bonds, EDV, US 10 Year Government Notes, TLT, and Mortgage Backed Bonds, MBB, as investors strove to find what they perceive to be “safe haven” investment in US Treasuries. Junk Bonds, JNK, traded higher than their previous high which occurred on May 16, 2014.

The dramatic flattening of the 10 30 US Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, $TNX:$TYX, seen in the Steepner ETF, STPP, flattening, and highlights the investors perceived concept of US Treasuries as “safe assets”.

Ever since Milton Friedman came out with the Free To Choose doctrine of floating currencies, the world has been operating on a debt based money system, and to the dismay of Austrian Economist, not a hard asset money system.

At the end of the age of liberalism, meaning freedom from the state, debt has become money, as the fiat, that is the rule of the Banker Regime is coming to a climax. And as is seen in late May 2014 financial market trading, debt, not equities, has become wealth.

The Distressed Investments, traded by the Fidelity Mutual Fund, FAGIX, have increased in value ever since the US Fed traded out “money good” US Treasuries for the worst of debt in QE1 in 2008, with the aim of restarting financial marketplace investing and regenerating global economic system. The US Fed’s monetary policies and the Banker Regime’s policies of credit choice were stunningly successful, in that they have produced awesome Equity Investment, VT, and Credit Investment, AGG. The world has attained peak wealth, it is an awesome moral hazard based wealth.

As the 10 30 US Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, $TNX:$TYX, has flattened, seen in the Flattner, ETF, FLAT, trading higher in value, Distressed Investments, FAGIX, and Junk Bonds, JNK, have come to be established as the most valued of all investments.

Of note, Leveraged Buyouts, PSP, traded higher, and Dividend Stocks, DTN, traded to a new rally high, with the trade higher in US Government Debt, EDV, and TLT.

Physical possession of gold bullion will emerge as the only “safe asset”, as the fiat of the Banker Regime fails, as investors derisk out of currency carry trade investments and debt trade investments.

Not only is the death of currencies underway, but the failure of trust is underway as well. While there was only a slight follow through from the sale of the Major World Currencies, DBV, and the Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, seen in only a slight trade lower in Equity Investment, VT, there was a sell in Regional Banks, KRE.

Wednesday, May 28, 2014 at 3:45:00 PM EDT

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The positions and strategies discussed on BETWEEN THE HEDGES are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor of this blog holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in anyway, considered liable for the investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

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