Thursday, May 22, 2014

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Putin Tilts to Asia With $400 Billion China Gas Deal. Russia’s $400 billion deal to supply natural gas to China after more than a decade of negotiations is tilting the world’s largest energy exporter toward Asia as ties worsen with the U.S. and Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin is turning eastward as sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union because of the standoff over Ukraine batter the Russian economy. The increasing alienation makes trade with China, the country’s largest trading partner after the two-way volume surged sevenfold in the past decade to about $94 billion last year, even more important.
  • Blast Rocks Open-Air Market in China’s Restive Xinjiang Region. An explosion tore through an open-air market in China’s restive northwestern province of Xinjiang, causing an unknown number of casualties. Photos circulated on the Internet that purported to show the aftermath of the blast revealed at least three bodies in a tree-lined street strewn with produce about 50 yards in front of a fire. In a second photograph, a police official in a white helmet and flack jacket directed traffic away from the fire. The official Xinhua News Agency said the explosion was “caused by vehicle collisions” and occurred at about 8 a.m. today in Xinjiang’s capital, Urumqi. It said an unknown number of people were hospitalized.
  • Spy Charges Ratchet Up Fears for Multinationals in China. Google Inc. (GOOG) sends an e-mail to some employees traveling to China warning that it’s a “restricted country” and online access to some internal systems will be limited, according to a person familiar with company policy. Kyocera Corp. (6971) only makes photovoltaic cells in Japan and is reviewing cybersecurity measures at its solar-panel assembly plant in Tianjin.Infineon Technologies AG, Europe’s second-biggest chipmaker, fends off thousands of attacks from China every day, although most are amateurish, said a person familiar with the situation. 
  • Weibo Net Loss Doubles on Spending to Attract New Users. Weibo Corp. (WB)’s net loss more than doubled in the first quarter as the Chinese microblogging service controlled by Sina Corp. (SINA) spent more to attract users. The first-quarter net loss was $47.4 million, compared with a loss of $19.2 million a year earlier, the Beijing-based company said in a statement yesterday. The loss matched the preliminary estimate provided in its listing prospectus.
  • Boko Haram Survivor's Story Puts Face on Islamic Terrorists. The untold victims of Boko Haram now have a face and a voice in the U.S. Deborah Peter was 12 years old when gunmen from the Nigerian terrorist group burst into her home in northern Nigeria and shot dead her father, a Christian pastor, and her 14-year-old brother Caleb, and then forced her to lie with their corpses. Peter, now 15 and attending a Christian school in rural Virginia, came to the U.S. Capitol today to recount her ordeal for leaders of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. She was attacked in 2011, well before Boko Haram’s abduction of more than 250 schoolgirls and young women in April finally drew international attention and condemnation. 
  • Brazil World Cup Victory Risks Stock Losses in Boon to Rousseff. A defeat for the five-time winners of soccer’s championship would be a blow to President Dilma Rousseff’s re-election bid, Carvalho said, bolstering the chances for a new government that would be friendlier to investors after the worst economic performance of any administration since 1992. As polls started showing Rousseff losing popularity before October’s vote, Brazilian stocks have posted the world’s best returns in dollar terms since mid-March, rebounding from a bear-market bottom. 
  • Asian Stocks Rise First Time in Five Days on Fed, China. Asian stocks rose for the first time in five days after Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed policy makers see a muted risk of inflation from continued U.S. stimulus and a China manufacturing gauge topped estimates. Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. climbed 4.4 percent in Tokyo, pacing a gain among consumer-discretionary shares that posted the largest advance among the 10 industry groups on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. James Hardie Industries Plc rose 2.8 percent in Sydney after the maker of building materials said it will buy back shares and increase spending on projects. Sanrio Co. slumped 19 percent in Tokyo, the most since 1985, on concern about earnings after yesterday’s strategy briefing from the maker of Hello Kitty toys. The MSCI Asia Pacific index gained 0.9 percent to 139.91 as of 9:57 a.m. in Hong Kong. The measure fell 1.3 percent over the past four days amid concern about China’s growth outlook and after valuations last week climbed to a six-week high 
  • Leader of Veterans’ Group Says Obama ‘Dithering’ on VA. President Barack Obama is “dithering” and has offered “no real action” to correct delays in health care at military veterans’ hospitals, the head of a veterans’ advocacy group said. “Our membership is tremendously disappointed,” said Paul Rieckhoff, founder and chief executive officer of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, which says it represents about 300,000 combat vets. “We expected to hear some news, that he was really going to tear into this issue with the severity that it deserves, and we didn’t hear that,” Rieckhoff said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt” airing this weekend.
  • Facebook(FB) to Google(GOOG) Say NSA Spying Bill is Unacceptable. A group of technology companies, including Facebook Inc. (FB), Google Inc. (GOOG) and Apple Inc. (AAPL), said the bill U.S. lawmakers plan to vote on tomorrow to limit National Security Agency spying doesn’t go far enough. The legislation “has moved in the wrong direction,” the Reform Government Surveillance coalition said in a statement today. The coalition formed last year in an effort to distance Internet companies from perceptions that they willingly cooperated with government surveillance programs. 
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Fears of 'Chaos' in East as Ukraine Readies Presidential Vote. Kiev Insists Election to Go Ahead Sunday, Despite Vows by Rebels to Block Them. For the first time in more than two decades of Ukrainian independence, Konstantin Kaliberda doubts he will be opening his local School No. 17 for a coming election, despite the crucial role Sunday's presidential vote is meant to play in holding the country together. "We've received no instructions and had no meetings. Normally, we'd have the voter lists by now, but the people at the district election commission are scared and not doing anything," said Mr. Kaliberda, a 47-year-old election...
MarketWatch.com: 
  • Fed’s easy-money strategy won’t be easy to end, official says. Easy money in doesn’t necessarily mean easy money out. So says a top Federal Reserve official who’s been critical of the central bank’s massive bond-buying stimulus campaign to keep U.S. interest rates ultra low. Kansas City Fed President Esther George says the longer interest rates remain low, the greater the risk for the central bank once it begins to revert to a more normal monetary policy. The Fed “is going to be challenged with its timing,” she said Wednesday after a speech in Washington.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
ValueWalk: 
Business Insider: 
Cleveland.com:
  • Where VA has taken veterans, Obamacare is leading all Americans: Kevin O'Brien. Another conclusion is probably just dawning on those Americans with the wit to see it, because so very few of us have had a brush with a medical system of which government is the sole proprietor: Putting a government bureaucracy in charge of one's health is a gamble likely to end badly. And yet, if Obamacare stands, that is precisely the gamble each and every American eventually will take.
Reuters:
  • Exclusive: Vietnam PM says considering legal action against China over disputed waters. Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said his government was considering various "defense options" against China, including legal action, following the deployment of a Chinese oil rig to disputed waters in the South China Sea. Dung's comments, given in a written response to questions from Reuters, are the first time he has suggested Vietnam would take legal measures, a threat likely to infuriate Beijing.
Telegraph:
Securities Times:
  • China Shouldn't Change Monetary Policy Tone. China shouldn't make fundamental changes to its monetary policy given the current economic situation and can still use fiscal policy to support economic growth, according to a front-page commentary.
Evening Recommendations
Sanford Bernstein:
  • Rated (VZ) Outperform, target $57.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.0 -5.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 86.0 -1.75 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.30%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.27%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.30%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (ESI)/.76
  • (DLTR)/.66
  • (PDCO)/.66
  • (SHLD)/-1.91
  • (PERY)/.27
  • (BBY)/.19
  • (TTC)/1.48
  • (ROST)/1.15
  • (GPS)/.57
  • (HPQ)/.88
  • (TFM)/.43
  • (ZUMZ)/.05
  • (GME)/.57
  • (PLCE)/.61
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for April is estimated to fall to 0.0 from .2 in March.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 310K versus 297K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2675K versus 2667K prior.
9:45 am EST
  • The Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI for May is estimated to rise to 55.5 versus 55.4 in April.
10:00 am EST
  • Existing Home Sales for April are estimated to rise to 4.69M versus 4.59M in March. 
  • The Leading Index for April is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.8% gain in March.
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for May is estimate at 7.0 versus 7.0 in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • (AWH) 3-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, Eurzone PMI report, UK gdp report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for May, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (RVBD) annual meeting and the (AFL) analyst briefing could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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