Friday, May 09, 2014

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Ukraine Renews Dialogue Offer as Russia Holds Army Drills. Ukraine’s leaders said they’re ready for a dialogue with peaceful representatives of the eastern regions, where pro-Russian separatists said they’ll push ahead with a vote on autonomy after Russian President Vladimir Putin called for a delay. Putin yesterday presided over nationwide army drills, a day after he softened his tone by promising to withdraw troops from the border, voicing support for Ukraine’s presidential election, and saying it’s not the right time for a referendum on secession in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Ukrainian premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk said he’s concerned that Russia is “planning provocations” today, when the country holds army parades to celebrate victory in World War II. 
  • Tumble in Fuel Sales Adds to Evidence of China Slowdown. Declining demand for ship fuel in Singapore, the merchant fleet’s biggest refueling hub, is signaling weakening prospects for a rebound in Chinese growth. Fuel oil for immediate delivery traded at the biggest discount to later supplies in 16 months on April 28, according to data from PVM Oil Associates Ltd. Sales of so-called bunker dropped for a third month in March, the longest retreat since November 2007, the latest Maritime and Port Authority data show.
  • Brazil Rate Increase Seen More Likely After Awazu Speech. Brazilian policy makers will continue with the inflation fight they started in April 2013, central bank Director Luiz Awazu Pereira said today, referring to when the country began the world’s longest tightening cycle. After his comments, swap rates on the contract due in January 2017 extended earlier gains as traders unwound bets the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged at 11 percent this month.
  • Investors Pull $400 Million From Emerging-Market Bond ETFs. Investors are pulling out of exchange- traded funds for emerging-market bonds at the fastest pace since November after a three-month rally pushed down yields and dimmed the allure of the securities. U.S.-based ETFs focused on developing-country bonds have posted a net outflow of $400 million this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg through yesterday. That’s bigger than any full month since November, when they lost $406 million.
  • Japan Stocks Rise While China Drops on CPI; Nickel Jumps. Japanese shares rose a second day, paring a weekly decline, as investors weighed earnings reports from the country’s biggest companies and Canon Inc. announced a share buyback. Nickel extended gains from a two-year high amid supply concerns and the Philippines peso jumped. The Topix index rose 0.9 percent by 12:01 p.m. in Tokyo, paring its weekly decline to 1.1 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.2 percent, while a gauge that excludes Japan fell 0.1 percent as Chinese shares retreated after inflation in Asia’s largest economy fell short of estimates.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • Pro-Russian separatists to go ahead with eastern Ukraine referendum. The pro-Russia insurgency in eastern Ukraine decided Thursday to go ahead with Sunday's referendum on autonomy despite a call from Russian President Vladimir Putin to delay it. While Putin's call on Wednesday to postpone the vote was seen as part of an effort to step back from confrontation and negotiate a deal with the West, he fueled tensions again on Thursday by overseeing military exercises that Russian news agencies said simulated a massive retaliatory nuclear strike in response to an enemy attack.
CNBC:
  • At Alibaba, chairman Ma's dealings raise red flags. Part-way through Alibaba Group's long-awaited IPO prospectus was a subtle, but striking, warning: investors should know that lead founder and executive chairman Jack Ma might work against the company's best interests
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.25 -2.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 83.75 -2.25 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.06%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (ALU)/-.04
  • (MT)/.06
  • (CQB)/.14
  • (EBIX)/.37
  • (SATS)/.05
  • (HLT)/.09
  • (RL)/1.63
  • (SSYS)/.40
  • (WLH)/.13
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  •  JOLTs Job Openings for March are estimated to fall to 4100 versus 4173 in February.
  • Wholesale Inventories for March are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in February.
  • Wholesale Sales for March are estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +.7% gain in February. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Fisher speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, UK industrial production, Canadian unemployment rate, USDA's WASDE report and the (BHI) analyst conference could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

1 comment:

theyenguy said...


At opening bell, most Equity Investments and most Credit Investments traded lower, as all The Currencies, with the result that the US Dollar, $USD, popped higher, causing disinvestment out of Global Financials, IXG, World Stocks, VT, Nation Investment, EFA, an Dividends Excluding Financials, IXG, as the Bond Vigilantes called the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, higher from 2.60% to 2.62%, exercising control over the US Fed.


Inasmuch as investors fear that the word central banks have crossed the rubicon of sound monetary policy, and have made money good investments bad, investors sold out of Banco Santander, STD, which led the European Financials, EUFN, and the European Stocks, EZU, lower. Greece, GREK, led the Eurozone Nations, lower. Regional Banks, KRE, traded lower, leading the Russell 2000, IWM, IWC, lower.


Aggregate Credit, AGG, traded lower; the 30 Year US Government Bond, EDV, rose moderately; the US Ten Year Note, TLT, rose weakly. Junk Bonds, JNK, traded higher. Floating Rate Notes, FLOT, traded lower.


Look for strong disinvestment to come out of The Most Carry Traded Nations, as Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, collapse on the ongoing failure of credit that began in April 2014 when, China, Russia, Developing Europe, and the US Small Caps trading lower.