Friday, May 23, 2014

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Russia Dismisses Industrywide Sanctions as Empty Threat. Russia is confident it won’t face industrywide sanctions over its policies in Ukraine because trade bans would hurt the world economy, especially Europe’s, Russian Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said. The threat from the U.S. and Europe that Russia will face sanctions on entire sectors “is like a nuclear weapon -- nobody uses it,” Ulyukayev said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
  • Asian Stocks Rise on Weaker Yen; Baht Rebounds After Drop. Asian stocks rose, fueling a second straight weekly advance in the regional index, as the yen held declines near a one-week low. Platinum and palladium retreated while Thailand’s baht advanced, regaining some of yesterday’s losses following the military coup. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent by 10:03 a.m. in Tokyo, bringing its weekly gain to 0.8 percent.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Penny Stocks Like Latteno Foods Rally, Fueling Big-Dollar Dreams. Fannie, Freddie and Other Cheap Names Spur a Rush in Activity on OTC Markets. Investors are piling into the shares of small, risky companies at the fastest clip on record, in search of investments that promise a chance of outsize returns. The investors are buying up so-called penny stocks—shares of mostly tiny companies that aren't listed on major U.S. exchanges—at a pace that far eclipses the tech boom of the late 1990s. Those include firms that focus on areas from medical marijuana and biotechnology to...
  • The Government Health-Care Model. The Veterans scandal shows where ObamaCare ends up. President Obama addressed the Veterans Affairs scandal on Wednesday, saying he's waiting for an Inspector General "audit" of what went wrong. And the press corps is debating whether VA Secretary Eric Shinseki should be fired. These are sideshows. The real story of the VA scandal is the failure of what liberals have long hailed as the model of government health care. Don't take our word for it. As recently as November 2011, Paul Krugman praised the VA as a triumph of "socialized medicine," as he put it:...
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
Reuters:
  • Fed on road to 'normal' may be rocky: Williams. The Federal Reserve is finally moving back to "normal" monetary policy, a top Fed official said on Thursday, even as he warned of possible lurches along the way. Painting a largely upbeat picture of the economic outlook, San Francisco Fed President John Williams forecast 3 percent growth this year and next, a return to a normal U.S. job market by 2016, and a rise in inflation toward the Fed's 2 percent target over roughly the same period.
Shanghai Securities News:
  • China CIRC Warns Risks of County-Level LGFV Bonds. The China Insurance Regulator Commission has issued rules to asset management units of insurers to increase risk prevention for bond investments in county-level local government financing vehicles, citing a person close to the regulatory departments.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.0 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 85.0 -1.0 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.10%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (FL)/1.06
  • (HIBB)/1.08
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • New Home Sales for April are estimated to rise to 425K versus 384K in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone gdp report and US New Home Sales Revisions could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

1 comment:

theyenguy said...


Gail Tverberg of Our Finite World blog posts in Zero Hedge The Connection Between Oil Prices, Debt Levels, And Interest Rates


Because oil prices are too low for companies doing the extraction, we really need higher oil prices. But if oil prices are higher, they will put the country (and the world) back into recession. Interest rates are already very low, it is not possible to lower them further to offset higher oil costs. We are reaching the edge of how much central banks can do to hold economies together.


As we have seen, rising interest rates will bring an end to our current equilibrium, by raising costs in many ways, without raising salaries. It will also reduce equity values and bond prices. A rise in the cost of extraction of oil, if it isn’t accompanied by high oil prices, will also put an end to our equilibrium, because oil producers will stop drilling the number of wells needed to keep production up. If oil prices rise (regardless of reason), this will tend to put the economy into recession, leading to job loss and debt defaults.