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Friday, May 16, 2014

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 1:07 AM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Ukraine Troops Advance as U.S. Warns Russia of Sanctions. Ukrainian forces moved to flush separatists from their eastern holdouts as the top U.S. and U.K. diplomats vowed to punish Russia with industrywide sanctions if this month’s presidential election is undermined. “If Russia or its proxies disrupt the elections,” the U.S. and its allies “will impose sectoral economic sanctions as a result,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said in London yesterday after meeting his counterparts from the U.K., Italy, France and Germany. Separatists “are literally sowing mayhem,” seeking to “speak for everyone through the barrel of a gun.”
  • Xi’s Southeast Asia Strategy Tested by Vietnam Protests. China’s efforts to head off a united Southeast Asia bloc against its pursuit of control of the South China Sea faces a backlash as President Xi Jinping considers how to respond to Vietnam’s fury over Chinese moves. Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung called for support from neighboring nations in his country’s attempt to force China to withdraw an oil rig it placed in waters claimed by both nations. Vietnamese ire over the issue spurred attacks on Chinese workers in the country that left two dead. 
  • China Bad Loans Rise Most Since 2005 as Economy Slows. Chinese banks had the biggest quarterly increase in bad loans since 2005 as a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy causes defaults to rise. Nonperforming loans rose by 54 billion yuan ($8.7 billion) in the three months through March to 646.1 billion yuan, the highest level since September 2008, according to data released by the China Banking Regulatory Commission yesterday. Bad loans accounted for 1.04 percent of total lending, up from 1 percent three months earlier. The 10th straight quarterly increase in defaults adds to concern banks’ profitability may slip as they build buffers to cover loan losses.
  • Thai Army Chief Warns of Military Action If Clashes Escalate. Thailand’s army chief said the military may need to use force to counter any escalation of violence linked to the nation’s six-month political stalemate. Yesterday’s statement from Prayuth Chan-Ocha came hours after acting Prime Minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan was forced to flee from anti-government protesters who stormed an air force compound where he was meeting with election officials, casting doubt on a poll tentatively planned for July 20.
  • Asian Stocks Slip as Bonds Rise While Yen Holds Advance. Asian stocks fell, with the regional index (VNINDEX) dropping from a four-month high, as bonds from Australia to Singapore followed Treasuries higher amid concern the global recovery is stalling. Crude oil rose as the yen held gains versus most major peers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.8 percent by 9:59 a.m. in Tokyo, falling for the first time in four days. Japan’s Topix (TPX) gauge sank 1.7 percent. 
  • Nickel’s Roller-Coaster Plunge Isn’t Over, Goldman Says. Nickel’s roller-coaster ride this year isn’t over, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which expects the highest prices in two years to prompt expanded capacity for smelting and discourage purchases by steelmakers. Prices plunged 11 percent the previous two days, and probably will fall 15 percent further in 12 months to $16,000 a metric ton, Goldman forecasts. Nickel had surged this year following a January ban on ore exports by Indonesia, the world’s largest supplier from mines, and as threats increased for economic sanctions against Russia, home to OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the biggest producer of refined metal.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Global Growth Worries Climb. Policy Makers in Europe, U.S. and China Grapple With What Steps to Take Next. Five years after the financial crisis ended, soft growth in Europe, a stop-and-start U.S. recovery and waning momentum in China have policy makers groping for what to do next. A spate of worrying economic data Thursday shook stock and bond markets. Economic activity in the 18-country euro zone expanded at a weak annual rate of 0.8% during the first quarter, data released Thursday showed. Excluding Germany, which grew at a robust 3.3%... 
  • Pinterest Is Valued at $5 Billion. Scrapbooking Site Raises $200 Million Investment. Pinterest Inc. still makes little revenue, yet the scrapbooking site's value is soaring in the eyes of venture capitalists. The company said Thursday it raised a $200 million investment that values it at $5 billion, making Pinterest one of the most valuable venture-capital backed startups in the world. Investors are still willing to pay...
Fox News:
  • Lawmakers say Rice’s story has ‘absolutely collapsed’ amid more questions on Benghazi account. Leading Republican senators charged Thursday that National Security Adviser Susan Rice’s public account of the Benghazi terror attack has now “absolutely collapsed,” citing inaccuracies in her statements not only on the origin of the attack but the level of security at the U.S. compound.
  • Poll: Trust in Government Plummets. When it comes to Washington controversies, most American voters think Benghazi, the IRS and the government’s electronic surveillance program are serious matters. A Fox News poll also finds that less than four in 10 voters trust the federal government.
CNBC:
  • Will 'technical tsunami' continue as stocks try to stabilize?
Zero Hedge:
  • When The Head Of The European Central Bank Lies To Zero Hedge On The Record: Presenting Europe's "Plan Z". (video)
  • US Officially "Takes No Position" On China's Provocative Actions In Disputed Waters.
  • The Lightbulb Goes Off In China: "If You Don't Pay Me And I Pay Others, I Am The Sucker". (graph)
  • "Complacency". (graph)
  • David Stockman Debunks More Keynesian Rubbish From Europe's Jon Hilsenrath.
  • Philippines Releases Photos Of China's Construction In Disputed South China Sea.
ValueWalk: 
  • Einhorn’s Greenlight Buys Nokia(NOK), Cuts Apple Inc.(AAPL), Sells GM(GM). 
Business Insider:
  • HEDGE FUND MANAGER: Warren Buffett 'Is Basically A Tax Evader'.
  • GUNDLACH: We Could Be On The Verge Of 'One Of The Biggest Short-Covering Scrambles Of All Time'.
  • CNN's Jake Tapper Grills White House Chief Of Staff: 'How Many Dead Veterans Do You Need?'
  • NATO's Secretary General Tells Europe To Stop Relying On The US And Provide Its Own Defense.
  • Report: Uber Is Gunning For A $10 Billion Valuation With A Big New Investment Round.
  • US Threatens To 'Bleed' Russia If It Disrupts Ukraine Vote.
  • China's Escalation In The South China Sea Is Unprecedented.
Reuters:
  • U.S.-based stock funds attract $9.7 bln, most since March -Lipper.
  • S&P battles secretiveness surrounding loans to U.S. cities, states. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services is pressing U.S. state and local governments to disclose information about loans they take out from banks, which are frequently hidden from public view, saying it will not be able to assign credit scores without the information.
Telegraph:
  • EU officials plotted IMF attack to bring rebellious Italy to its knees.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.25 +1.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 84.5 +2.75 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.07%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (CSIQ)/.08
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for April are estimated to rise to 980K versus 946K the prior week.
  • Building Permits for April are estimated to rise to 1010K versus 990K prior. 
9:55 am EST
  • Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for May is estimated to rise to 84.5 versus 84.1 in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bullard speaking, Eurozone Trade Balance, (MCD) investor meeting and the (CHK) analyst day could impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

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