Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Stunning Rallies Are Happening in Greece Today. Now Greeks are protesting in favor of the government. Here's one thing that might make a compromise deal for Greece difficult: The hardline negotiating stance taken by Alexis Tsipras is looking very, very popular in Greece. In recent years, we've become used to seeing protesters in Greece (and elsewhere in Europe) rally against the government.
• Euro Area Takes Up Greek Rescue, Germany Says No Red Line. Euro-area finance ministers challenged Greece to lay out ideas for a deal with its official creditors, saying they’ll listen without anticipating an immediate accord. After Germany and Greece took clashing positions in the run-up, ministers met in Brussels on Wednesday to kick off negotiations that will continue next week. Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who heads the meetings, said the ministers want to hear Greece’s proposals and look for ways to move forward.
• Guide to Possible EU Sanctions on Russia Over Ukraine. The European Union’s 28 leaders are due to discuss Ukraine at a summit Thursday in Brussels to be attended by Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko. The meeting follows peace talks between Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Minsk, Belarus, later on Wednesday. Following are ways for the EU to stiffen sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis:
• Getting Greeks to Pay Taxes Is Tsipras Biggest Test at Home. As Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras goes into a Battle of the Titans with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, he may find he has as big a fight closer to home: taking on rich tax-evaders. People like Angeliki Katsarolia, a waitress at the Julia café lounge bar in the rundown neighborhood of Omonia in Athens, want to see him cast his net wide. Gesturing to a receipt for coffee curled up in a small glass on a recent afternoon, one of the few signs of success in five years of attempts to get Greeks to pay taxes, she said she’s doing her bit.  
• Europe’s Banks Face Decade of Japan-Style Woes, Berenberg Says. Europe’s banks face a decade-long “balance-sheet recession” that closely mirrors Japan’s 1990s economic and financial woes, Berenberg analysts said. Europe’s growth may remain squeezed and interest rates near zero for at least 10 years, weighing on bank revenue and pushing up bad-loan losses, Nick Anderson, James Chappell and Eoin Mullany, Berenberg’s analysts in London, wrote in a study on Tuesday.  
• Brazil’s Currency Falls to a Decade Low as Retail Sales Tumble. Brazil’s real sank to a 10-year low as a record drop in retail sales added to concern that Latin America’s largest economy is slumping. The local currency slid 1.5 percent to 2.8756 per dollar at 3:14 p.m. in Sao Paulo, the weakest level on a closing basis since October 2004. Swap rates on the contract maturing in January 2016, a gauge of expectations for changes in Brazil’s borrowing costs, increased 0.25 percentage point to a six-year high of 13.25 percent. 
• European Stocks Decline as Investors Await Greek Talks Outcome. European stocks declined amid investor concern that Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis won’t reach an agreement on new bailout terms at a meeting with his euro-area counterparts in Brussels. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.2 percent to 372.04 at the close of trading, after earlier losing as much as 0.5 percent. The yield on three-year Greek notes jumped 125 basis points to 20.76 percent, while the ASE Index lost 4 percent, the most among 18 western-European markets. Benchmark equity indexes in Spain and Portugal slid at least 1.3 percent.
• Goldman: The Plunge in Rig Count Still Isn't Enough to Stop Oil From Tumbling. The slump in oil prices may not be over, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The decline in the number of U.S. drilling rigs that’s helped crude futures in New York rebound 14 percent from this year’s low isn’t enough to reduce an oversupply, the U.S. bank said in a note dated Feb. 10. Lower prices are needed for American output to slow sufficiently to rebalance global markets, it said. Goldman joins Citigroup Inc. and Vitol Group, the world’s biggest independent oil trader, in signaling prices may resume a decline amid unrelenting production growth.
• Oil Producers Outside OPEC Caught in Crossfire With Shale. Oil producers outside OPEC and U.S. shale fields are getting caught in the confrontation over market supremacy that has brought crude prices to near six-year lows. High-cost regions from aging North Sea fields to untapped resources in East Siberia and deep-water projects off Latin America will suffer the most from the clash, say Standard Chartered Plc, Citigroup Inc. and BNP Paribas SA.

ZeroHedge: 

• Russia Warns US, Supplying Arms To Ukraine "Will Have Dramatic Consequences".
• Europe's Greek Contagion Update: Peripheral Bonds Risk Surges. (graph)
• Deutsche Bank Warns, Energy Stock "Valuations Are Unsustainable" Unless Crude Hits $70 By 2H15.
• Deutsche Bank Warns, Energy Stock "Valuations Are Unsustainable" Unless Crude Hits $70 By 2H15. (graph)
• Bank Of America Used Government-Backed Funds For "Reckless, Extremely Levered" Tax Avoiding Trades. (graph)
• The Euro’s Exponential Decay.
• WTI Nears $47 Handle After Inventory Build Doubles Expectations & Production Hits Record High. (graph)
• From Small 'Grexit' Dominoes, Global Crises Grow.
• Baltic Dry Index Hits New Record Low. (graph)

Telegraph:

• Eurozone leaders believe Syriza must fail and be seen to fail. If other European countires are worried about Syriza to succeeding inside the euro, they are even more worried about it succeeding outside the euro.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.57%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -2.30% 2) Gold & Silver -1.95% 3) Oil Service -1.52%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• PIR, MKTO, PAYC, AOL, CSTE, ORA, LBY, ANDE, LOCK, XOOM, WBAI, QLYS, SYY, RUSHA, CR, LPX, ARMK, CHL, WMGI, PXD, PAG, TRI, TUBE, SGEN, NCR, AMAG, WOOF, WMGI, ENT, LOCK, AOL, JONE, ANDE and PIR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NAV 2) NVDA 3) XLV 4) EWW 5) WFM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HAL 2) CR 3) AXP 4) BAC 5) FCX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.14%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail +1.16% 2) Biotech +.92% 3) HMOs +.72%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• INXN, THOR, LGF, TMH, CHS, STRZA, XON, SGMO, EEFT and KITE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NCR 2) RAD 3) AKAM 4) GNW 5) SYY
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MWW 2) YELP 3) PEP 4) NOC 5) RAD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Germany Toughens Tone With Greece Before EU Meetings. (graph) Germany and Greece drew battle lines ahead of an emergency meeting of official creditors today, setting the stage for a clash. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble doused expectations of a positive outcome for Greece at the meeting in Brussels, saying there are no plans to discuss a new accord or give the country more time. Greece’s new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was defiant, saying there is “no way back” for his government, and that he wants a new agreement that won’t subject his people to more pain. Tsipras said in a speech before a vote of confidence in parliament that he wants an accord “that is in the mutual interest of Greece and its partners, one that will end punitive terms and the destruction of the Greek economy.” 

• Volatility Climbs With Dollar as Germany Douses Greek Optimism. Currency volatility surged along with the U.S. dollar as Germany and Greece head for a showdown that is spurring traders to take out insurance against euro declines. The premium to protect against a drop in the euro versus the greenback rose to the highest since Jan. 23 -- the day after the European Central Bank announced it would purchase sovereign bonds -- before Greece’s official creditors hold an emergency meeting. A gauge of the dollar closed at its highest level in data going back to 2004 as comments from regional Federal Reserve presidents suggested policy makers could raise interest rates by mid year. “The outcome of the Greek bailout saga is highly uncertain,” said Imre Speizer, a markets strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Auckland. “You’ll get pre-positioning and repositioning after the event, depending on whether it’s a positive or negative surprise. It might cause some volatility,” and that would support dollar buying, he said.  

• Ukraine Cease-Fire Talks Continue With All Sides Face Conflicting Pressures. Officials from Ukraine, Russia, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and pro-Russian separatists will continue negotiations in Belarus Wednesday on a cease-fire to stem 10 months of bloodshed. Despite earlier reports from Itar-Tass, no agreement was reached Tuesday, according to two officials representing members of the so-called contact group, which includes all four parties. The Russian news service, citing an unidentified person, said the cease-fire includes the withdrawal of heavy weapons, monitoring and implementation.

• Brazil Real Drops to Lowest Level in Decade as Commodities Sink. Brazil’s real declined to a 10-year low as falling commodities prices damped the outlook for growth in Latin America’s biggest economy. The real dropped 2.2 percent to 2.8324 per dollar at the close of trade, the weakest level on a closing basis since November 2004. The drop was the biggest among 31 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Swap rates, a gauge of expectations for changes in Brazil’s borrowing costs, increased 0.12 percentage point to 13 percent on the contract maturing in January 2016.   

• Euro, Aussie Expected to Weaken, ANZ's Yetsenga Says. (video)

• Won Leads Declines in Asia as Fed’s Lacker Backs June Rate Rise. South Korea’s won led declines in Asian currencies after a Federal Reserve policy maker said U.S. data support the case for raising interest rates in June. Fed Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker, who has sought tighter monetary policy in the past, said on Tuesday the world’s largest economy is growing at a faster and “more sustained pace” than a year ago. South Korea’s unemployment rate fell to 3.4 percent in January, the statistics office said Wednesday, lower than 3.5 percent in December and the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The won declined 0.7 percent, the most since Feb. 2, to 1,097.19 a dollar as of 10:30 a.m. in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bloomberg-JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies excluding the yen, retreated for a second day.

• Asia Stocks Fall as Earnings Concern Offsets Greek Deal Optimism. Asian stocks fell as concern about corporate earnings offset optimism that a compromise will be reached over Greece’s debt obligations. CSL Ltd. tumbled 8.1 percent, dragging Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lower, after the maker of blood-based drugs and vaccines cut its profit forecast. Suncorp Group Ltd. declined 2.5 percent in Sydney after profit at the insurer missed estimates. China Shenhua Energy Co. retreated 1.2 percent in Hong Kong after sales declined. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index slipped 0.1 percent to 477.73 as of 9:36 a.m. in Hong Kong. Japan’s stock market is closed for a holiday.

• Oil Is Going to Be Lower for Longer: Gordon. (video) UBS Wealth Management, CIO Office Executive Director and Commodities Strategist Wayne Gordon discusses oil's volatility and where the market is heading with Bloomberg's Rishaad Salamat on "On The Move."

• Record Iron Ore Glut Seen by ANZ as Price Forecasts Cut to 2018. The global iron ore surplus will more than double to a record this year as low-cost producers keep on expanding, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., which cut price forecasts as much as 30 percent. The raw material will average $58 a metric ton this year, down from an earlier estimate of $77, and $60 next year, down from $85, analysts including Head of Commodity Research Mark Pervan wrote in a report on Wednesday. The surplus will expand to 85 million tons this year from 39 million tons in 2014, the bank forecast. Price forecasts for 2017 and 2018 were also cut.  

• A Record Number of Americans Are Renouncing Their Citizenship. The number of Americans renouncing U.S. citizenship increased 37 percent in the three months through December and the annual total reached a record level, data published Tuesday showed.

Wall Street Journal:

• Death of Kayla Mueller, American Held by Islamic State, Is Confirmed. President Obama Vows to Find and Bring Justice to Those Responsible for Death. Kayla Jean Mueller, the last American hostage known to be held by Islamic State extremists, was confirmed dead by her relatives and the White House on Tuesday. Ms. Mueller’s parents received what U.S. officials described as private communications from Islamic State over the weekend, including photographs. Based on the images, U.S. intelligence agencies concluded they proved she had been killed, officials said.

• Federal Reserve Works to Cultivate Stronger Ties to GOP. Bank’s Lone Republican Governor Tries to Blunt Proposal He Says Risks Curbing Fed Independence. 

• Currency Warriors Get Boost at G-20 Meeting. Stimulus is Vital for Boosting Weak Global Economy, Leaders Say.

• U.S. Firms in China See Rising Anti-foreign Sentiment. Survey by American Chamber of Commerce in China Found Companies Believe Foreign Firms Have Been Targeted in Investigations. U.S. businesses in China have voiced increased concerns over what they see as rising anti-foreign sentiment and increasingly difficult operating conditions as the economy posts slower growth. An annual survey released on Wednesday of about 500 members of the American Chamber of Commerce in China found that most companies believe that...

Fox News:

• NBC suspends Brian Williams for 6 months. Brian Williams, anchor and managing editor of "NBC Nightly News," has been suspended without pay for six months following his continued misrepresentation of events surrounding his coverage of the Iraq War, NBC said Tuesday night. "We have decided today to suspend Brian Williams as managing editor and anchor of NBC Nightly News for six months," NBC News president Deborah Turness said in a memo to staff sent to FoxNews.com. "The suspension will be without pay and is effective immediately. We let Brian know of our decision earlier today. Lester Holt will continue to substitute anchor the NBC Nightly News."

CNBC:

• Top oil analyst: The worst is yet to come. Oil prices will get a heck of a lot worse before they get better, a top industry analyst said on Tuesday. Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, predicted that oil prices would bottom during the second quarter of the year "simultaneously to one of the expirations of the WTI contracts."

• Apple(AAPL) to build $850M solar energy farm in CA.

Zero Hedge:

• Tomorrow Greece Decides: Europe... Or Russia.

• How Fast Would Contagion Spread If Greece Exits The Eurozone.

• This Man Will Never Be Invited Back On CNBC. (video)

• If You Listen Carefully, The Bankers Are Actually Telling Us What Is Going To Happen Next.

• Speculators Have Never Been As Long VIX As They Are Today. (graph)

• Stocks Spike To 2015 Highs: AAPL Trumps Oil Dump & Greek Slump. (graph)

• Middle-Class Spending Expectations Crash, NY Fed Reports. (graph)

• Fourth Turning: The Shadow Of Crisis Has Not Passed - Part 1.

• Elizabeth Warren Opposes "Congressional Meddling" 'Audit The Fed' Bill.

Business Insider:

• REPORT: Tesla only sold 120 cars in China in January — Elon Musk threatens to fire executives.

• ISIS's all-female brigade just released a startling new manifesto.

• The US-led war against ISIS may stretch beyond Iraq and Syria.

• Greek Prime Minister Tsipras wins confidence vote ahead of crucial meetings on Greece's financial future.

Reuters: 

• Akamai(AKAM) revenue beats Street as security product sales swell. Akamai Technologies Inc's quarterly profit and revenue beat market estimates as demand jumped both for its security products and mainstay content delivery businesses. Akamai shares shot up 5 percent in extended trading on Tuesday before shedding some gains after it issued a cautious forecast for the current quarter.

• Trick or treat? India's strong GDP figures mask economic reality. For Indian business, the government and the central bank, data revisions that have transformed the country's $2.1 trillion economy into one of the world's fastest growing are too good to be true. Now, the search is on for reliable indicators of underlying activity, vital for Finance Minister Arun Jaitley as he draws up his annual budget and for Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan as he weighs whether to cut interest rates again.

Telegraph:

• For the third time in a century, America will have to ride to Europe's rescue. From the sidelines, the US is watching the unfolding Greek tragedy with growing horror. It must stand ready to assist as the euro breaks apart.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 69.25 unch.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (OC)/.41

• (ZTS)/.36

• (TWX)/.93

• (LPX)/-.14

• (WCG)/.66

• (PEP)/1.08

• (MOS)/.86

• (AOL)/.71

• (MDLZ)/.43

• (NVDA)/.36

• (NTAP)/.77

• (CAKE)/.60

• (PNRA)/1.81

• (MET)/1.35

• (TSO)/1.53

• (CXW)/.65

• (FEYE)/-.49

• (WFM)/.45

• (TSLA)/.32

• (CSCO)/.51

• (AMAT)/.27

Economic Releases
10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +3,612,500 barrels versus a +6,333,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +100,000 barrels versus a +2,335,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -987,500 barrels versus a +1,788,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilziation is estimated to fall by -.09% versus a +1.9% gain the prior week.

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Deficit for January is estimated at -$19.0B versus -$10.3B in December.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Fisher speaking, China New Loan/Money Supply data, Australia Employment data, $24B 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, BB&T Transport Conference and the Stern Agee Financial Institutions Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Yen Weakness, Gaming/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.20 -7.28%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.17 +.63%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.04 +1.56%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.53 -1.70%

• ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -11.58%

• Total Put/Call .96 -11.11%

• NYSE Arms .91 -6.04% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.34 -.48%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 713.0 +.4%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.60 -1.84%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.94 -2.02%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 69.31 +.12%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 386.17 +1.64%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.42 -.01%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 unch.

• TED Spread 24.50 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.0 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 134.0 +3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.38/Metric Tonne +1.93%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -28.80 -2.7 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.20 +2.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.80 +.8 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70 -1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +208 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Schaeuble Says ‘Over’ for Greece Unless Aid Program Accepted. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble doused expectations of a positive outcome for Greece at an emergency meeting with its official creditors tomorrow, saying there are no plans to give the country more time. Speaking to reporters in Istanbul after a two-day meeting of finance chiefs from the Group of 20, Schaeuble said “it’s over” if Greece doesn’t want the final tranche of the current aid program. Greece’s creditors also “can’t negotiate about something new,” Schaeuble said. Greek government bonds had risen today for the first time in five days on optimism there might be room to move toward an agreement that will help ensure the nation isn’t left short of funds. That had come after Greece had offered compromises in a bid to push for a bridge plan to stave off a funding crunch and to buy time for negotiations to ease austerity demands.
• Bond Vigilantes Gone AWOL Boost Greek Risk of Expulsion. The threat Greece poses to Europe may be gaining force through investor complacency. Money managers are accepting rates on Italian and Spanish government bonds at close to record lows. They’re rejecting the notion that the euro area’s higher-yielding issuers -- the so-called peripherals -- can be infected by Greece’s negotiations for a new deal on its more than 300 billion euros ($340 billion) in debt. The cues investors are giving to European policy makers may end up backfiring. “Someone says something that sounds cheerful, and the market assumes that the situation is therefore moving toward resolution,” Stephen Lewis, chief economist in London at ADM Investor Services International Ltd., said in a Feb. 6 telephone interview. “That may not be the case at all. Abandoning austerity in the case of Greece would be abandoning austerity for the euro zone as a whole.”
• Osborne Sees Rising Danger of Bad Outcome in Greek Crisis. (video) International finance ministers urged Greece and its creditors to resolve their fight over austerity and aid, warning against an impasse that might splinter the euro region. As a meeting of economic policy makers from the Group of 20 concluded in Istanbul, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew cautioned against “casual talk” that Greece could leave the euro and recommended “a pragmatic approach in which the parties can agree on terms that are mutually agreeable.” “Here at the G-20, we are urging all parties to this dispute to find some common solutions,” U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “A Greek exit from the euro would be very difficult for the world economy and potentially very damaging for the European economy.”  
• Ukraine Begins Offensive Against Rebels While U.S. Weighs Arms Aid. Ukrainian troops began a new offensive and their main eastern headquarters suffered a rocket attack before European diplomats gathered in Belarus for a peace summit in a bid to stem 10 months of bloodshed. Government forces broke through rebel positions near the eastern port city of Mariupol, with Ukraine blaming the pro-Russia militants for shelling its command post. The new fighting erupted after President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Russian aggression is boosting the resolve of the U.S. and the European Union to make President Vladimir Putin pay for violating Ukraine’s sovereignty.
• Sleep-at-Night Bank-Debt Buyers Seen Cool on TLAC Bonds. Douglas Flint, chairman of HSBC Holdings Plc, wants to know who’s going to buy the trillions of dollars of loss-absorbing securities that regulators plan to force the biggest global banks to have on their books. The interest at this stage from traditional consumers of bank paper, such as pension funds and insurers, is lukewarm at best. While the securities, designed to be written down in a crisis, would offer higher yields than senior debt, the risk of bail-in may be more than some buyers can tolerate. That could leave the banks struggling to meet regulatory requirements. 
• European Shares Advance Amid Optimism of Greek Bailout Agreement. European stocks advanced amid investor optimism that Greece can reach an agreement on bailout terms with its euro-area creditors. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.6 percent to 372.94 at the close of trading, after earlier rising as much as 0.9 percent. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis faces his euro-zone counterparts on Feb. 11 at an emergency meeting in Brussels. He said his government will neither tear up the existing bailout deal, nor allow the budget to be derailed, while Greece will implement about 70 percent of reforms included in the accord.
• Fewer Small Businesses in U.S. Plan to Raise Worker Compensation. Fewer U.S. small companies plan to raise wages in coming months after a net 25 percent said they recently boosted compensation for their workers. A net 12 percent of managers said in January that they will be increasing pay, according to the seasonally adjusted results of 1,663 responses in a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business. That’s down 5 points from December, when 17 percent said they planned higher salaries and 25 percent said they had recently increased compensation. The group’s index of small-business optimism declined to 97.9 in January from 100.4 a month earlier.

ZeroHedge:

• The REAL Greek Negotiations: Situation Is “Berserk", "There Is No Plan", "Greeks Digging Own Graves".
• Europe's Greek Showdown: The Sum Of All Statist Errors. (graph)
• Halliburton To Cut Up To 6,500 Jobs As Crude Carnages To Crucial $50 Level.
• What Do Stocks Know? (graph)
• The Reason Why Trading Currencies Is Now The Most Difficult Since Lehman.
• Why Bank Of America(BAC) Is Stumped: Despite "Lower Gas Prices" US Consumer Spending Has Plunged.
• As Seen On The Ground In Eastern Ukraine. (pics)
• The Coup Is Complete: US Embassy In Yemen Shutting Down, Ambassador To Leave By Wednesday.
• How Dan Loeb Thinks The Greek Crisis Plays Out.
• Wholesale Inventory Growth Slowest Since May 2013, Sales Tumble - Worst Ratio Since Lehman. (graph)
• Small Business Optimism Tumbles, Misses By Most In Over 2 Years. (graph)
• Invasion Imminent: Jordan Stations "Thousands" Of Troops On Iraq Border.

Fiscal Times:

• Fed's Williams Says Rate Hike Getting 'Closer and Closer'. Economic conditions are "getting closer and closer to those where it makes sense to really start thinking seriously about starting this process of normalization," Williams told the FT in an interview. In the interview, Williams made clear he felt the inflation-dampening impact of falling oil prices and a strong dollar would fade over time. "Those influences will wane and this basic fore of a strong labor market, strong economy, will ... become the dominant theme, and to my mind push wages up to 3-3.5% and push inflation back to 2%," he said.
  
  conomic conditions are “getting closer and closer to those where it makes sense to really start thinking seriously about starting this process of normalization,” Williams told the FT in an interview.
  The newspaper said Williams said the Fed might have to hike borrowing costs "much more dramatically" than otherwise if it waited too long, saying it was better to move sooner and raise rates "gradually, thoughtfully." - See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/latestnews/2015/02/10/Feds-Williams-says-rate-hike-getting-closer-and-closer-FT#sthash.8HLK2bPs.dpuf
  Economic conditions are “getting closer and closer to those where it makes sense to really start thinking seriously about starting this process of normalization,” Williams told the FT in an interview.
  The newspaper said Williams said the Fed might have to hike borrowing costs "much more dramatically" than otherwise if it waited too long, saying it was better to move sooner and raise rates "gradually, thoughtfully." - See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/latestnews/2015/02/10/Feds-Williams-says-rate-hike-getting-closer-and-closer-FT#sthash.8HLK2bPs.dpuf

Telegraph:

• Greece's last minute offer to Brussels changes absolutely nothing. Greece has escalated its demands while seeming to offer concessions, but at least it is smiling again. 
• Greek finance minister: be prepared for a clash. Yanis Varoufakis says policymakers should prepare to "contemplate breakdown" of the eurozone if better deal for Greece can't be reached, as German finance minister says "it's over" unless country backs down.

Focus:

• Every Second German Wants Greece to Leave Euro-Area. 48% of Germans want Greece to leave euro, citing INSA poll. 29% want Greece to stay in euro-area. 23% have not decided.