Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.89%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +2.32% 2) Biotech +1.95% 3) HMOs +1.85%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LTM, KNDI, EW, ADXS, FRAN, ICPT, UTHR and AKRX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XLNX 2) MDC 3) ASHR 4) SLXP 5) PG
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVGO 2) QRVO 3) VRX 4) SLXP 5) BA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Russia Was Ready for Crimea Nuclear Standoff, Putin Says. Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was ready to put his country’s nuclear forces on alert when he annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula last year in case of intervention by the U.S. and its allies. “We were ready to do that,” Putin said when asked in a documentary film about Russia’s takeover of Crimea aired Sunday on state television if the Kremlin had been prepared to place its nuclear forces on alert. The Russian leader said he warned the U.S. and Europe not to get involved, accusing them of engineering the ouster of Russian-backed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. “That’s why I think no one wanted to start a world conflict.”
• Pro-Russian Rebels Hopeful on Peace as Ukraine Sees Threat. Pro-Russian rebels said they were hopeful the peace process in east Ukraine will continue as the government in Kiev accused them of breaching a cease-fire agreement amid skirmishes. Ukraine said one of its soldiers was wounded as rebels attacked government positions 32 times during the past 24 hours, military spokesman Andriy Lysenko told reporters in Kiev on Saturday. More than 6,000 people have been killed in the year-old conflict, according to the United Nations. The U.S., the European Union and Ukraine say Russia is supplying the separatists with troops and weapons. Russia denies the accusations.   
• Germans Tired of Greek Demands Want Country to Exit Euro. Berlin cabdriver Jens Mueller says he’s had it with the Greek government and he doesn’t want Germany to send any more of his tax money to be squandered in Athens. “They’ve got a lot of hubris and arrogance, being in the situation they’re in and making all these demands,” said Mueller, 49, waiting for fares near the Brandenburg Gate. “Maybe it’s better for Greece to just leave the euro.” Mueller’s sentiment is shared by a majority of Germans. A poll published March 13 by public broadcaster ZDF found 52 percent of his countrymen no longer want Greece to remain in Europe’s common currency, up from 41 percent last month. The shift is due to a view held by 80 percent of Germans that Greece’s government “isn’t behaving seriously toward its European partners.”
• Record China Debt Means Growth-Rally Mismatch: Chart of the Day. Concern is growing that China’s world-beating stock surge is out of kilter with the country’s economic slowdown and record debt binge. The CHART OF THE DAY shows China’s total public and private debt has increased to more than twice the nation’s economic output, soaring 83 percentage points relative to gross domestic product since 2007. No other developing country has amassed as much debt as quickly, according to data compiled by McKinsey Global Institute. While the economy is growing at the slowest pace since 1990, the Shanghai Composite Index has jumped 64 percent in the past year, the best performance among major equity gauges tracked by Bloomberg. The economic pace is destined to drop to an average 4-5 percent a year over the next five years, from the 7 percent target for 2015, says Ruchir Sharma, who manages more than $25 billion as the head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. He’s kept about 12 percent of assets in Chinese stocks since 2010, compared with 18 percent in the indexes he uses for benchmarks. The index weighting is high relative to the opportunities given more than half are state-owned companies, says Sharma. Chinese debt is “a ticking time-bomb,” Michael Every, the head of Asia Pacific financial-market research at Rabobank International in Hong Kong, which manages about $700 billion of assets, said by phone March 4. “I fail to see how shares maintain these levels if we continue to see slower growth.” 
• Slowdown Concern Spurs Record Bearish Bets on A-Share ETF. Investors are rushing to buy protection against declines in Chinese stocks amid concern an economic slowdown will undermine their world-beating rally. Demand to hedge against future losses on the largest U.S. exchange-traded fund tracking China’s mainland market climbed to the highest since the ETF was created in November 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The buying pushed the ratio of bearish to bullish contracts to a five-month high on March 11 as investors pulled $34 million from the fund in a second week of outflows.
• Hundreds of Thousands March in Brazil to Protest Rousseff. Hundreds of thousands of Brazilians, some of them calling for President Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment, took to the nation’s streets Sunday to protest a government beset by scandal and the rising cost of living. The largest protest occurred in Sao Paulo, with 240,000 people as of 2:40 p.m. local time, according to its military police. Protests occurred in cites of 16 states and the federal capital, according to O Globo website. Its TV network reported 45,000 protesters in Brasilia, 20,000 in Belo Horizonte, and 20,000 in Belem, citing the military police of those cities. No violence or vandalism were reported.   
• Aussie Shorts Reach Record as Bears Join BlackRock Seeing Slide. Investors are the most bearish on record about the Australian dollar as BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manager, expects the currency to plunge to levels well below what the Reserve Bank prefers.
• Asian Stocks Retreat as Energy Shares Slide, Investors Await Fed. Asian stocks fell as investors awaited this week’s Federal Reserve meeting for clues on the timeline for higher U.S. interest rates. Energy companies led losses as oil resumed last week’s decline. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3 percent to 143.50 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo after sliding 1 percent last week as a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report spurred speculation the Fed would raise rates sooner than some investors expected.
• Speculators Least Bullish on Oil Since 2013 as Stockpiles Swell. Speculators cut bullish oil wagers to the lowest level in more than two years amid warnings the U.S. supply glut may soon strain storage capacity. Hedge funds and other money managers reduced their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 2.5 percent in the seven days ended March 10, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Short wagers rose to a record.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hedge Funds Win as Euro Falls. Bets against the common currency augment returns. The euro’s plunge has given a much-needed lift to hedge funds that have been repeatedly frustrated by the world’s central banks. A bevy of multibillion-dollar funds have gained as much as 9% this year as their managers bet against the euro, riding the European Central Bank’s push to weaken the currency...
• For U.S. Banks, Headwinds Keep Blowing. Investors remain wary of big lenders as low rates and stricter regulation squeeze profits, limit payouts. Bank stocks popped a bit last week after the largest U.S. lenders passed the Federal Reserve “stress tests” with no major hassles. But it was a brief moment of sunshine following several challenging years...
• Obama’s Iran Jam. The White House wants the U.N. to vote but not the U.S. Congress.

CNBC:

• A shadow banking sector has gotten 65 times larger. Shadow banking in general has come back to life after getting hammered during the financial crisis, but one segment has been especially rampant. Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, in which loans are made privately through individuals who most often connect through a network of relatively new websites, has exploded over the past five years. It is now the fastest-growing sector of non-bank lending, according to an exhaustive Goldman Sachs report on the shadow banking industry.

Zero Hedge:

• 5 Things To Ponder: Return To Reality. (graph)
• Parasite Turns On Parasite: HFT Sues Other HFTs For "Egregious Manipulation" Of Treasury Securities.
• Furious "Plunge Protection" In Final Minutes Fails To Push Stocks Green For 2015. (graph)
• Estonia Fears Being "Overrun By Russia In Minutes", Sweden Sends Troops To Baltic Sea Island.
• Speculation In This Sector Will End "Very Badly," Canada's Warren Buffett Says.
• Is This The Catalyst For The Next Big Leg Down In Oil Prices & Energy Stocks?
• The Coming Chinese Crackup.
• What Goldman's Clients Are Most Concerned About. (graph)
• One Last Look At The Real Economy Before It Implodes - Part 2.
• When Even Varoufakis Mocks The QE "Wizard", The Game Is Almost Up.
• The EU's Stalinesque "4 Year Plan".
• The Ignorance Is Bliss Market (Summed Up In 1 Simple Chart). (graph)
• "An 'Old-Fashioned' Recession Is Spreading Across The World," Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Warns. (graph)
• North America Crude Oil Production Remains Strong. (graph)
• Clintons Furious At Obama After Valerie Jarrett Linked To Email Leak.
• The Seal Is Broken: DB Is The First Major Bank To Predict Drop In 2015 S&P500 EPS. (graph)
• Saxobank's Chief Economist: 2015 Is A Lost Year (and Here's Why).
• The Full Explanation Of How The ECB Broke Europe's Bond Market. (graph)
• Varoufakis' "Strategy": "No Grexit, But Default Inside The Euro, And Stick The Middle Finger To Germany".
• Who's Hurting From Slumping Commodities. (graph)
• Oil Plunges To Lowest Since March 2009 ($43 WTI) As EURUSD 1.05 Battle Continues. (graph)
• It Is Time For A Criminal Probe Into Tim Geithner's Leaks As Vice Chairman Of The Federal Reserve.
• State Department Shuts US Embassy In 'Ally' Saudi Arabia Amid "Heightened Security Concerns".
• The Bipolar Stock Market (In 3 Simple Charts). (graph)
• The Austrian Black Swan Claims Its First Foreign Casualty: German Duesselhyp Collapses, To Be Bailed Out.

Business Insider:

• If Putin is dead or incapacitated, here are three scenarios for what might happen next.
• Activists think they found a way to convince Democrats to stay away from 'toxic' hedge fund money.
• Silicon Valley's tech elite gives more to Republicans than Democrats.
• 'Downward pressure' in China is intensifying.
• Global currency wars are threatening a Lehman-style crisis.
• There's a new ticking time bomb inside China's economy.
• Canada carries an albatross of debt around its neck.
• ISIS now has a foothold in an oil-rich Mediterranean port city.
• The US dollar is exploding at a probably unprecedented rate.
• MARK CUBAN: Forgiving $1 trillion in student debt is 'the worst thing we could do'.
  However, Cuban thinks massive student-loan forgiveness would just make the bubble keep expanding. "Forgiving the debt is the worst thing you can do, because all it does is bail out the universities," Cuban said.
• The oil rig count crash is following an eerily similar path that gas rigs followed years ago. (graph)
• McConnell: Obama is on the verge of a 'very bad deal' with Iran.
• GREENSPAN: The US is producing oil that has nowhere to go.
• Goldman Sachs(GS) has a stunning new forecast for the euro.

FAS:

• Germany Wants Russia Sanctions in Force Until Year-End. The German government intends to argue at a summit of EU leaders next week for sanctions against Russia to be linked to the full implementation of the Minsk II cease-fire agreement, citing government sources. German government expects opposition from Italy, Greece and Cyprus to such a move.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.5 +2.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 66.75 +1.75 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures +.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (XONE)/-.06
• (PWRD)/.37

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for March is estimated to rise to 8.0 versus 7.78 in February.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in January.
• Capacity Utilization for February is estimated to rise to 79.5% versus 79.4% in January.
• Manufacturing Production for February is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in January.

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for March is estimated to rise to 56.0 versus 55.0 in February.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for January.

Upcoming Splits

• (V) 4-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bank of Japan statement could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Fed rate hike worries, global growth fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, technical selling, commodity weakness and earnings concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,053.40 -.86%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,053.40 -.86%

• DJIA 17,749.31 -.60%

• NASDAQ 4,871.76 -1.13%

• Russell 2000 1,232.14 +1.20%

• S&P 500 High Beta 33.99 -1.45% 

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 136.57 -.11% 

• Wilshire 5000 21,513.17 -.60%

• Russell 1000 Growth 984.92 -.93%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,007.74 -.50%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 494.06 -1.27%

• Solactive US Cyclical 138.23 -1.09%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,011.49 -2.37%

• Transports 8,945.13 +.42%

• Utilities 572.92 +.51%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 114.03 +.26%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.58 -3.06%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,192.95 -.64%
• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 993.91 +.22%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 234,464 -.28%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -19 -3

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 28.13% -35.08%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 260,659 -.62%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,670,894 -1.01%

• Total Put/Call 1.21 -5.47%

• OEX Put/Call .93 -48.90%

• ISE Sentiment 78.0 +90.24%

• NYSE Arms 1.33 +66.25%

• Volatility(VIX) 16.0 +5.26%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.26 -.82%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.02 +14.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.01 +6.27%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,631.28 -1.50%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.691 Trillion +.68%
• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.934 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 31.60 -20.6%
• AAII % Bears 25.41 +8.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 210.70 -4.29%

• Crude Oil 44.84 -9.92%

• Reformulated Gasoline 176.23 -6.38%

• Natural Gas 2.73 -4.28%

• Heating Oil 171.30 -8.49%

• Gold 1,152.40 -1.35%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 168.54 -.68%

• Copper 266.35 +1.93%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 226.67 USD/Ton unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 57.66 USD/Ton -3.08%

• Lumber 274.0 -2.56%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,113.54 -1.92%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -4.0% +60 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0693 -3.21%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.41 +.16%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -60.10 -12.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.10 -5.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.60 +11.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 52.0% chance of no change, 48.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/18

• US Dollar Index 100.33 +2.67%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.08 -2.74%

• Yield Curve 146.0 -6.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.11% -13.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.451 Trillion +.05%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.90 +2.13%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 183.0 +2.32%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.10 +3.51%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 66.64 +3.42%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 359.24 +3.56%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.14 +.88%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 350.76 +4.22%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 485.39 +6.88%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.84 -.29%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.70%-13.0 basis points

• TED Spread 25.0 -.75 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 +2.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 +5.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 65.78 +6.95%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 733.0 +6.20%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 55.84 +2.52%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 419.52 +7.49%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 85.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.998 Trillion +.30%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,023 +2.40%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 302,250 -2,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.86% +11.0 basis points
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 415.40 -1.26%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.3 -.2 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.60% -10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.44/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 560.0 -.89%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,067.94 +.35%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.
• Rail Freight Carloads 253,762 +5.03%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.9%

Leading Sectors

• HMOs +2.6%

• I-Banks +2.5%

• REITs +1.9%

• Education +1.8%

• Retail +1.7%

Lagging Sectors

• Energy -3.1% 

• Computer Hardware -4.4%

• Gaming -6.1%

• Oil Service -6.6%

• Coal -10.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (28)

• CBMG, RTI, LBIO, PNK, CLDN, BBNK, TWOU, FSTR, CVTI, EXPR, LTM, SUPN, URBN, OME, ISSI, LJPC, CFI, GLPI, MYCC, DMND, XOXO, MYRG, BANC, JRN, LL, MW, EAGL and BIG

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (24)

• TTPH, ITCI, PLOW, ESL, UNFI, MMI, RAVN, TPUB, INTC, ERA, ANAT, LMOS, SGMS, ACAD, KKD, TITN, PGEM, BLT, CKP, IDT, VRA, MRD, NNBR and CMTL

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Earnings Worries, Oil Plunge, Commodity/Construction Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.67 +8.11%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.66 -1.54%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 +4.27%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.22 +3.19%

• ISE Sentiment Index 71.0 -7.79%

• Total Put/Call 1.14 +6.54%

• NYSE Arms 1.72 +70.32% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.20 +3.47%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 733.0 +.36%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.90 -.75%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.10 +.98%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 66.64 +2.69%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 418.59 +2.64%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 113.84 +.06%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 25.0 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.25 -1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 147.0 +3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $57.66/Metric Tonne -.53%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -60.10 -4.5 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.1 -1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.60 +.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.69 -3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -25 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Lower: On losses in my medical/tech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long