Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.51%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -1.03% 2) Medical Equipment -.93% 3) Gold & Silver -.84%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• AVID, NCMI, OAKS, MAC, BOOM, RATE, CRZO, ZBRA, TM, DD, VEC, WUBA, TESO, CKEC, OVAS, GEF, HTGC, JMBA, XONE, CLDN, ZMH, ROVI, CRH, ANAC, EPZM, BDSI, CLDX, EPZM and AXTA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) OIL 2) WSM 3) EWW 4) EWY 5) JNK

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RAI 2) XONE 3) COP 4) MKC 5) BOOM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.31%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +2.17% 2) Steel +.86% 3) Airlines +.63%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ESPR, MGM, DSW, QUNR, AAL, VEEV and TKMR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ATML 2) FOLD 3) MGM 4) DISH 5) AAL
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MCO 2) DSW 3) UA 4) MTN 5) MGM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Greece Grabs Cash as More Than $2 Billion in Payouts Loom. Greece will begin debating measures to boost liquidity as the cash-starved country braces for more than 2 billion euros ($2.12 billion) in debt payments Friday. Unable to access bailout funding and locked out of capital markets, the government will outline emergency plans to parliament Tuesday to increase funding. Payments due March 20 include interest on a swap originally arranged by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified publicly discussing the derivative.  
• Hong Kong's Decade-Long Property Boom Could Be Ending: Chart.  
• China’s Boom-Bust Brokers Under Threat as Banks Eye Turf. China’s securities firms, which have been struggling to diversify beyond volatile revenues from margin lending and brokerage commissions, face the unwelcome prospect of competition from the nation’s biggest commercial banks. News last week that two Chinese banks may capitalize on a plan by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to open up the brokerage industry to other financial institutions sent share prices of listed securities firms tumbling.
• Asia Stocks Rise as U.S. Factory Data Damp Rate-Rise Speculation. Asian stocks rose, after a rebound in U.S. equities, as weak economic data eased speculation the Federal Reserve will bring forward plans to raise interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4 percent to 144.40 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. 
• Currency Volatility Damage to Earnings Seen Worsening in Quarter. After doubling in the fourth quarter, the negative impact of swings in foreign-exchange rates on corporate earnings is likely to worsen in the three months ending March 31. That’s the outlook of FiREapps, a Scottsdale, Arizona-based company that advises businesses on reducing the impact of currency volatility.
• Unprecedented Sugar Glut Expanding as World Output Soars. The world has never been so awash in sugar. Just as cane harvests expand in India and Thailand, farmers in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, are ramping up exports to take advantage of a tumble in the exchange rate that has swelled their profit margins. And crops that were hurt by drought last year have been revived by rain. Global output is set to exceed demand for a fifth straight year, leaving the biggest stockpiles on record, the International Sugar Organization said.

Wall Street Journal:

• Apple(AAPL) Plans Web TV Service in Fall. In talks with programmers to offer a slimmed-down bundle of about 25 channels. Apple Inc.’s lofty plans to build an online television service are coming into sharper focus. The technology giant is in talks with programmers to offer a slimmed-down bundle of TV networks this fall, according to people familiar with the matter. The service would have about 25 channels, anchored by broadcasters such as ABC, CBS and Fox, and would be available on Apple devices such as the Apple TV, they said.
• How Looming Recession Is Unsettling One of Russia’s Boom Cities. Ailing economy has rattled consumers and businesses, including in the once booming city of Kaluga.
• Hillary’s Emails and the Law. It is a crime—obstruction of justice—to destroy even one message to prevent it from being subpoenaed. The fact that Hillary Clinton exclusively used a private server in her home, rather than a secure government server, to send emails during her four years as secretary of state has raised many questions. She now says that it was a mistake but also emphasizes that she broke no law. News reports typically describe her offense as not following “policy.”

Fox News:

• ISIS' dark mission: Destroying all signs of Christianity. (pic)

CNBC:

• OPEC far from blinking in oil price war. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• The Lies End Now: "Most Transparent Administration Ever" Is No More: White House To Delete Its FOIA Regulations.
• China Becomes World's Third Largest Weapons Dealer.
• Dismal-Data Drives Stock Buying-Frenzy; Hindenburg Omen Re-Appears. (graph)
• A Return To Reality (In Charts).
• Japan Ties China As America's Largest Creditor As Foreigners Dump A Record Amount Of Treasurys, (graph)
• Goldman(GS) Underwrites (MBLY) Secondary, Sells 4.6 Million Shares One Day After Upgrade.
• US Economic Data Is Having Its Worst Year Since At Least 2000. (graph)
• Meet The Relentless, Mystery Buyer Of Chinese Stocks Even As China's Economy Grinds To A Crawl. (graph)
• China Options Limited As Repo Rate Hits Record.
• "Colossal Defeat" For Obama As Australia Joins China's Regional Bank.

Business Insider:

• POLL: Americans think Hillary Clinton screwed up with her emails.
• Pinterest just raised a huge round and is now worth $11 billion.

Reuters: 

• Gilead's(GILD) hepatitis C drugs largely cost-effective in U.S.: study. New hepatitis C drugs that shorten treatment times are largely cost-effective despite their hefty U.S. price tags, according to two new analyses.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 -1.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 66.25 -.5 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (DSW)/.28
• (FDS)/1.56
• (ZBRA)/1.02
• (ADBE)/.39
• (ORCL)/.68 

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for February are estimated to fall to 1040K versus 1065K in January.
• Building Permits for February are estimated to rise to 1065K versus 1053K in January.

Upcoming Splits

• (V) 4-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German ZEW Index, China House Price report, US weekly retails sales reports, BofA Merrill Industrials conference, BofA Merrill Smid Cap conference and the (NVDA) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Euro Bounce, Technical Buying, Utility/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.63 -2.31%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.24 +.87%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.86 -1.27%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.24 -1.68%

• ISE Sentiment Index 74.0 -5.13%

• Total Put/Call .97 -19.83%

• NYSE Arms .75 -43.91% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 -.88%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 753.0 +1.77%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.75 -.16%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.82 -1.33%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 66.20 -.65%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 421.41 +.45%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.01 +.15%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.0 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 25.0 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.

• Yield Curve 145.0 -2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $57.66/Metric Tonne +2.15%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -63.80 -3.7 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.6 -4.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.80 -1.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 -3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +189 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail/tech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Putin Puts Troops on Full Alert in Western Russia Drills. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops placed on full combat readiness in snap drills in western Russia, as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu warned the country was facing new threats to its security. Some 38,000 troops, 41 warships, 15 submarines and 110 aircraft are involved in the exercises, Shoigu said on Monday, according to a Russian Defense Ministry statement. “New challenges and threats to military security demand a further increase in the military capabilities of the armed forces,” Shoigu said, the Interfax news service reported. Russia is “deeply concerned about the increase in exercises of NATO countries close to our borders,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksey Meshkov said on Monday, according to Tass news service. 
• Merkel Says More EU Russia Sanctions If Truce Violated. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the European Union would consider imposing further sanctions on Russia at a summit this week if there’s a major violation of the cease-fire in eastern Ukraine. Merkel, speaking at a news conference with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Berlin on Monday, said a truce agreed Feb. 12 in Minsk between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian government forces still isn’t being adhered to even if the situation on the ground has become quieter.
• European Stocks Extend Seven-Year High as German DAX Tops 12,000. European stocks extended their gains, with German equities reaching a fresh record. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.9 percent to 400.18 at the close of trading in London, with automakers leading the gain.
• Biggest Long-Term Treasury ETF Hit by Fastest Outflows on Record. The biggest exchange-traded fund investing in long-term Treasuries is losing investors at the fastest rate ever on concern the Federal Reserve is moving closer to interest-rate increases. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF posted its biggest three-week outflow since its inception in 2002, according to Bloomberg data. The sales came even after Treasuries rallied last week as weaker domestic growth damped the outlook for inflation and combined with the start of additional monetary stimulus in Europe to boost the allure of U.S. government debt.
• There’s Not Much Yellen Can Do to Stop Dollar Rally, SocGen Says. Kit Juckes, a global strategist at Societe Generale SA in London, says there’s not much that can halt the U.S. dollar’s ascent. The greenback is rallying because the rest of the world is doing poorly in comparison. Yet any sign of U.S. weakness would only prompt international investors to pour more money into the nation -- not less -- since a slowdown in America would drag down other, less-stable countries, too, according to Juckes.  
• Funds Run by Robots Now Account for $400 Billion.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Iran’s Nuclear Deal Could Open Oil Flood. A deal to ease Western sanctions could hit an already-glutted global oil market.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Bull market is ‘closer to the end’ than investors think. Jim Stack says sentiment is out of line with the fundamentals.

CNBC: 

• US to hit debt ceiling again, and this time could be worse. (video)
• Top 5 reasons why oil is going lower.

ZeroHedge:

• The Transparent Truthlessness Of The Fed.
• Varoufakis' Latest Fiasco: FinMin Claims "Middle Finger To Germany" Clip Fake; Germany Disagrees. (pic)
• ECB Reports Only €9.8 Billion In Bond Purchases In First Full Week Of Q€.
• Oil Tumbles Under $43 As Key Support Breached; Fresh 6 Year Lows. (graph)
• Homebuilder Sentiment Tumbles To October Lows (and No, It's Not The Weather). (graph)
• US Manufacturing Output Falls For 3rd Month - Worst Since Lehman. (graph)
• Empire State Manufacturing Misses: New Orders Slide To 16 Month Lows, Capex Plunges. (graph)
• Italian Bad Debt Hits Record $197 Billion As Bank Lending Contracts For Unprecedented 33 Consecutive Months. (graph)
• Germany Has Had It With Greece: Schauble Says "Doesn't Know What To Do With Greece Now".
• Sign Of The Times: Santander Floats First "Deep" Subprime Deal Since Crisis.

Business Insider:

• One of tech's most important investors says 'you'll see some dead unicorns this year' among startups worth $1 billion.
• Brazilian protesters are calling for something downright scary.
• The US oil bust just got worse. (graph)
• Putin reappears after mysterious absence.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.13%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Tankers -1.36% 2) Alt Energy -1.14% 3) Social Media -.32%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• LL, SINA, DD, MSG, CWCO, HIBB, SWK, WB, SGMS, MFLX, SIX, WYNN, DTYS, STRP, NSTG, NMM, E, CYBR, CEVA, EGRX, NFLX, RRD, RTI, IGTE, SMP and CVTI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VNQ 2) KRE 3) DD 4) LEN 5) GES

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EMN 2) PBR 3) NFLX 4) SWK 5) BTU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume