Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,108.10 +2.66%

• DJIA 18,127.65 +2.13%

• NASDAQ 5,026.42 +3.18%

• Russell 2000 1,266.37 +2.78%

• S&P 500 High Beta 35.01 +3.0% 

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 138.30 +1.27% 

• Wilshire 5000 22,098.01 +2.72%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,014.10 +2.96%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,032.05 +2.41%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 503.22 +1.86%

• Solactive US Cyclical 140.42 +1.58%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,038.47 +2.67%

• Transports 9,148.13 +2.27%

• Utilities 595.33 +3.91%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 116.74 +2.38%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.88 +3.39%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,211.30 +1.54%
• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,002.44 +.86%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 238,286 +1.56%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 116 +135

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0% -11.13%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 243,488 -6.59%
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,760,721 +5.38%

• Total Put/Call .80 -33.88%

• OEX Put/Call .88 -5.38%

• ISE Sentiment 99.0 +26.92%

• NYSE Arms .75 -43.60%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.02 -18.62%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.24 -.03%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.54 -3.39%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.37 -5.73%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,944.03 +1.77%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.671 Trillion -.71%
• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow +$.326 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 27.2 -14.1%
• AAII % Bears 31.5 +23.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 214.11 +1.62%

• Crude Oil 46.57 +3.49%

• Reformulated Gasoline 179.78 +2.38%

• Natural Gas 2.79 +2.39%

• Heating Oil 173.43 +1.33%

• Gold 1,184.60 +2.26%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 169.54 +.59%

• Copper 276.10 +3.23%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 226.67 USD/Ton unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 54.66 USD/Ton -5.20%

• Lumber 280.80 +2.67%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,130.8 +1.67%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -3.7% +30 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0693 n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 122.33 -.07%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -72.10 -12.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.20 -3.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.60 -6.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 52.0% chance of no change, 48.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/29

• US Dollar Index 97.91 -2.27%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.69 +1.97%

• Yield Curve 135.0 -11.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.93% -18.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.458 Trillion +.15%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.82 +5.5%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 179.0 -1.90%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.79 +3.24%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 60.64 -8.99%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 351.22 -2.23%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 75.01 +2.56%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 344.61 -1.76%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 463.96 -4.42%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.19 +.31%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.77% +7.0 basis points

• TED Spread 26.50 +1.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.5 -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -3.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.86 -4.44%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,025.0 +38.58%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 64.30 +15.14%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 322.0 -23.24%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 88.0 +3.0 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.980 Trillion -.63%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,025.30 +.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 304,750 +2,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.78% -8.0 basis points
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 399.30 -3.88%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.2 +.9 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.60% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $2.43/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 584.0 +3.92%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,034.29 -3.15%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.
• Rail Freight Carloads 274,175 +8.04%

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value +3.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +2.4%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +6.8%

• Biotech +6.2%

• Steel +5.9%

• Gold & Silver +5.6%

• REITs +5.4%

Lagging Sectors

• I-Banks +1.4% 

• Networking +1.1%

• Tobacco +.7%

• Agriculture +.6%

• Banks +.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (25)

• ESPR, RTRX, FOLD, BBX, RGEN, FRSH, EBIX, TA, TLYS, ITG, AKBA, PRSC, HPTX, NVRO, UAM, BGC, CKEC, GES, LOCO, JBL, IMDZ, GNCMA, CQH, REV and LTM

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (10)

• TUES, CNCE, CBPX, PDVW, MTOR, RSPP, FTD, VNCE, EPZM and VEC

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Homebuilding/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.03 -7.39%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.86 +1.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.36 -1.89%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.96 -1.75%

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +57.53%

• Total Put/Call .76 -13.64%

• NYSE Arms .59 -66.99% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.89 -1.02%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,025.0 +.62%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.35 +3.94%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.88 -7.48%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 61.05 -4.78%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 320.61 -22.3% (new series)

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.19 +.09%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.50 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 26.0 +2.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 135.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $54.66/Metric Tonne -.62%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -72.10 unch.
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.20 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 +.9 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.77 -3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +85 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail/tech sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Ukraine Rebels Plan Offensive as Government Fortifies Key Port. Pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine are preparing for a new offensive to expand their territory, signaling a six-week-old truce is in danger of crumbling. “We’ll try to push them from here to hell because we’re tired of them killing civilians with indiscriminate fire,” Alexander Khodakovsky, who commands the 3,500-man Vostok Brigade, said in an interview at his headquarters in Donetsk. The campaign may start in the “foreseeable future,” according to Khodakovsky, who also heads the security council of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. A rebel offensive would shatter the cease-fire and raise the risk of escalating U.S. and European Union sanctions against Russia, which they blame for stoking the conflict. Ukraine and Germany, which brokered the accord with France, are calling for fresh talks as President Petro Poroshenko’s government and the insurgents accuse each other of violations. 
• Worst Yet to Come for Russian Banks, Sberbank CEO Gref Says. OAO Sberbank Chief Executive Officer Herman Gref said the worst is yet to come for Russia’s banking industry still reeling from last year’s collapse of the ruble and the economic slump. Russia’s banking sector has not yet surpassed “the peak of its problems,” Gref, who runs the country’s largest lender, told reporters in Moscow on Friday. “They are still ahead.” 
• EU Dangles Prospect of Aid to Entice Greece Into Action. Greece could win an infusion of bailout money as soon as next week if Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras can deliver an adequate package of reform measures, an EU official told reporters in Brussels. European Union leaders sought to revive bailout talks at a meeting in Brussels by signaling they might soon be ready to release some funds so long as Greece fulfills its commitments. The first money could come from profits euro members made when the European Central Bank bought discounted Greek debt during an earlier phase of the financial crisis. There’s also money left in the country’s 240 billion-euro ($258 billion) bailout program.
• Suicide Bombs Hit Shiite Mosques in Yemen, 120 Reported Dead. Suicide bombers killed dozens of worshipers at two mosques in Yemen’s capital Sana’a during Friday prayers, a day after fighting spread to the south of the country. At least 120 people died in the attacks on the Badr and al-Hashoosh mosques, according to the al-Haris news service, run by the Interior Ministry. The mosques, like most of the capital, are controlled by the Shiite Houthi rebel movement, based in north Yemen, which has been battling forces loyal to President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi as well as al-Qaeda militants.  
• European Stocks Inch Toward Record as FTSE 100 Rises Above 7,000. European stocks rose near an all-time high as miners and oil shares led gains. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index climbed above 7,000 for the first time. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.8 percent to 404.01 at the close of trading. It is 0.4 percent away from a record close in March 2000, having surpassed the forecasts of 12 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg in January.
• Here's the Next Biggest Threat to Global Crude Oil Prices. The next big threat to oil prices isn’t from OPEC or Bakken shale. It’s Russian samovars, or teapots. Simple refineries that process crude into fuel oil are scaling back, because when oil prices slump, the government reduces the discount that these refiners -- known as teapots to those in the industry -- get for exporting fuel. They use less crude, freeing it up for sale abroad, which in turn adds to the global glut. Russia may increase oil exports by as much as 250,000 barrels a day this year, according to James Henderson, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies who’s followed the country’s energy industry for more than 20 years. That would equate to 5 percent growth in shipments, the most in at least a decade.  
• Oil Rot Spreads as Loan Default Claim Puts Connacher on Brink. A New York lawsuit is threatening to make Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd. a casualty of crude’s collapse in Canada’s oil sands as creditors squeeze small producers in one of the priciest places to extract the fuel. As oil prices resumed their slide to a new six-year low this week, creditors filed suit on Monday demanding Connacher immediately repay a $128.4 million loan. If successful, the suit would make it difficult for the company to stay in business unless it finds some other source of capital, according to Moody’s Investors Service Inc.
• European Coal Falls to Lowest Since 2007 as Demand Outlook Dims. European coal prices fell to the lowest in more than seven years amid a worldwide glut of the fuel as governments from the U.S. to China boost efforts to shift away from the most-polluting energy source. Prices for delivery next year to northwest Europe slid as much as 0.7 percent, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. The benchmark contract is headed for a third straight weekly decline as demand growth slows in China, the world’s biggest consumer. 
• Iron Ore Slumps Below $55 as China Slowdown Hurts Outlook. Iron ore plunged below $55 a dry metric ton as signs of a slowdown in China’s economy added to concerns that demand will weaken from the largest buyer amid a global surplus. Ore with 62 percent content at Qingdao, China, sank to $54.66 a ton on Friday, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. That’s the lowest since at least May 2008, when Metal Bulletin started compiling weekly prices. Prices retreated 5.2 percent this week, extending losses in 2015 to 23 percent.
• Tiffany(TIF) Predicts Profit Plunge as Strong Dollar Crimps Sales. (video) Tiffany & Co., the world’s second-largest luxury jewelry chain, predicted a 30 percent decline in net income this quarter as currency headwinds and sluggish sales hamper results. The drop in the first quarter will be followed by a more “modest” decrease in the following period, the New York-based company said in a statement on Friday. Worldwide sales will decline about 10 percent in the first quarter, partly because of a slowdown in the Americas region, Tiffany said. The stronger dollar has hit Tiffany with a double-whammy by lowering the value of overseas sales and making it less attractive for foreign tourists to come to the U.S. to shop.

ZeroHedge: 

• When The World's Reserve Currency Flash Crashed: "I Haven’t Seen Anything Like It Since The Financial Crisis". (graph)
• "Market Is Hyper Overpriced" Warns Retiring Fed President; "Significiant Correction" Coming. (video)
• Rig Count Plunge Continues: Total Rigs Lowest Since March 2011, Fastest Drop Since 1986. (graph)
• The Latest Flashing Red Light: Global Earnings Plunge Most Since Lehman. (graph)
• Chart Of The Day: Biotechs. (graph)
• Underwater Homeowners "Here To Stay" Zillow Says. (graph)

Business Insider:

• The euro is going bananas. (graph)
• Analysts are going crazy for this biotech company after results from an Alzheimer's trial.
• Japan and Australia are ignoring warnings from the US not to join China's new bank.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.45%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Tankers -1.01% 2) Hospitals -.53% 3) Gaming -.46%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• MAC, SXCP, FOLD, LBIO, TKMR, TIF, CMCM, YOKU, GMED, SONS, VNCE, ARG, FLXN, DTYS, VIIX, CLDN, LECO, KITE, FWP, PII, EIX, ANAC, DRNA, ASCMA, ASPX, WNC, TGTX, MAC, KITE, SONS and THRX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LUV 2) TIF 3) IBB 4) HOT 5) MON

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DATA 2) TSO 3) UCTT 4) CCG 5) MTGE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.78%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.44% 2) Homebuilders +2.18% 3) Oil Service +1.98%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PRTA, RALY, CTRP, BIIB, SQM, NKE, QUNR, KBH and OC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CVC 2) BIIB 3) NKE 4) NFX 5) HZNP
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CTRP 2) BIIB 3) NKE 4) PRTA 5) KBH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• EU Pledges to Extend Russia Sanctions, Delays Confirming. European Union leaders made a pledge to extend sanctions against Russia until the end of the year, trying to pressure the Kremlin to uphold the cease-fire in eastern Ukraine. Yet the political commitment stopped short of the ironclad decision sought by hardliners in eastern Europe, leaving open the possibility that the trade and investment curbs might not be renewed when they expire in July.  
• Russian Toilets Used as a Hedge Against Fallout From Ruble Rout. At a time when President Vladimir Putin’s standoff with the West is slowing the economy and crimping sales at home, Kazakhs -- the third biggest net buyers of Russian goods -- are boosting orders to benefit from the 41 percent depreciation that’s made the ruble the worst-performing currency of the past year. Purchases of rubles quadrupled in Kazakhstan in January from a year earlier to total 60 billion rubles ($1 billion) for the four months from October, according to data from Kazakhstan’s central bank in Almaty.  
• EU Asks Greece for More Reforms to Speed Aid Negotiations. Greece must submit a more concrete reform plan to euro-area authorities so that bailout talks can speed up, European Union leaders said after nearly four hours of talks with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in Brussels. With EU chiefs warning that time is running out for Greece to overcome a standoff over aid, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande said that the Greek government needed to submit new measures rapidly. 
• Bank Deposit Flight Has Accelerated in Greece: Humes. (video) 
• China Starts 10-Year Bond Futures Trading as Rate Controls Ease. China will allow trading of 10-year government bond futures, the latest step in a plan to build a market-based yield curve and liberalize interest rates. The China Financial Futures Exchange will officially list the 10-year contracts on Friday, after allowing trading of five-year sovereign debt futures in September 2013. That followed an 18-year hiatus after an investigation into alleged market manipulation in the late 1990s. 
• Most Asian Stocks Retreat as Materials, Tech Shares Lead Drop. Most Asian stocks dropped, following declines in U.S. shares, as materials and technology companies led losses. About three shares fell for every two that rose on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which added less than 0.1 percent to 146.79 as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo.
• Oil Slump Extends to a Fifth Week as Global Glut Seen Expanding. Oil trading near the lowest price in six years is headed for a fifth weekly drop amid signs the global supply glut is worsening. Futures were little changed in New York after falling for the seventh time in eight days on Thursday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries needs to keep its production target unchanged to maintain market share, said Kuwait, the group’s third-largest member. Iran may increase oil exports within months of reaching a deal on its nuclear program, according to U.S. and European officials.
• Tarullo Targets Commodity Risks at Goldman Sachs(GS), Morgan Stanley(MS). Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo questioned whether Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley should be allowed to own physical commodities because the practice exposes them to risks outside traditional banking. The New York-based companies are allowed “to engage in the extraction, transportation of potentially highly combustible materials with substantial risks associated with them,” Tarullo told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Such activity appears to “breach the wall between banking and commerce.”

Wall Street Journal:

• Iran Talks Stall Over Ending of Sanctions. As March 31 deadline nears for nuclear agreement, Tehran wants U.N. sanctions lifted right away; U.S., Europeans say ‘no way.’
  When international sanctions on Iran would be lifted has emerged as one of the largest remaining stumbling blocks to an agreement to constrain Tehran’s nuclear program by a March 31 deadline, according to U.S., European and Iranian officials. 
• Crimea Is Still Ukraine. The Russian annexation has robbed Ukrainian citizens on the peninsula of the right to live in their own state. One year ago, the Ukrainian territory of Crimea was illegally annexed by our neighbor and partner at the time, the Russian Federation. One year ago, as Russian special forces sacked the regional parliament and silenced dissenting voices, a farce referendum was held to position Moscow’s land grab behind a facade of legitimacy. 
• Fed Is Pushing and Pulling on Rates Riddle. Policy makers face challenge in moving long-term yields up; ‘conundrum’ for new era.
• How Foreigners Became America’s Financial Regulators. The Fed and Treasury are answering to a board of the G-20 without admitting it to the American people.

Fox News:

• US to train 750 Ukraine troops as Russian aggression continues. (video) With Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine continuing, the White House announced Wednesday the U.S. will begin training 750 Ukraine troops. The news came after a phone call between Vice President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and coincided with Russians celebrating the first anniversary of their country’s annexation of Crimea.

CNBC:

• Nike(NKE) earnings: 89 cents per share vs. expected EPS of 84 cents. (video) Nike topped Wall Street's earnings estimates on Thursday, but sales figures came in below expectations as it struggled with the negative impacts of a stronger dollar.
• Brace for recession next year: Advisor. (video) Right now the economic trend in the United States is positive, but the "party" for the market will come to an end later this year and a recession will likely hit in 2016, a market expert told CNBC on Thursday.

Zero Hedge:

• Paul Tudor Jones Warns This "Disastrous Market Mania" Will End "By Revolution, Taxes, Or War".
• Yellen Hangover Strikes Stocks, Bonds, Euro, Oil; Banks Bashed, Biotechs Boom. (graph)
• Russian Submarine Activity Surges 50% Since 2014, Admiral Claims "Not Saber-Rattling".
• Albert Edwards: "It Is Already Too Late To Avert Another Crisis". (graph)
• The 'Real' Fed Dot Plot.. 
• Japanese Pension Funds Dive Into Stocks To "Increase Risk-Taking".
• FBI Moves to Broaden Hacking Authority - Google(GOOG) Says it Poses “Monumental Constitutional Concern”.
• Government Hints Fannie/Freddie Would Need Another Bailout If Conditions Deteriorate. (graph)
• Hours After Hinting At Mandatory Voting, Obama Talks Down "Suggestion" Following Backlash.

Business Insider:

• Hillary Clinton's money problems keep getting worse.
• Congress has subpoenaed about a dozen people who worked in Hillary Clinton's State Department.
• 3 charts that show America's big banks are only getting bigger. (graph)

Reuters:

• U.S.-based stock funds attract $8.6 bln in latest week - Lipper.

Financial Times: 

• White House reconsiders supporting Israel at UN. The White House said on Thursday that it was reconsidering the support it has given Israel at the UN even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to row back his election campaign comments rejecting a Palestinian state.

Evening Recommendations 
Piper Jaffray:

• Rated (COO) Overweight.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 +14.0 basis points (new series).

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.0 +.5 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures +.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (DRI)/.84
• (KBH)/.02
• (TIF)/1.51

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, German PPI, (ICPT) investor meeting and the (BIIB) Alzheimer data could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.