Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,066.96 +.53%

• DJIA 17,763.24 +.48%

• NASDAQ 4,886.94 +.49%

• Russell 2000 1,255.66 +1.92%

• S&P 500 High Beta 34.40 +.88% 

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 135.22 +1.71% 

• Wilshire 5000 21,705.61 +.74%

• Russell 1000 Growth 993.68 +.51%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,014.86 +.77%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 504.81 +1.32%

• Solactive US Cyclical 136.91 +.53%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,000.73 -.12%

• Transports 8,605.31 -.84%

• Utilities 589.87 +2.27%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 118.17 +1.68%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.89 +3.39%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,207.92 -.32%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,003.0 +.22%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 238,752 +1.04%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -43 +169

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 51.43% +105.72%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 206,887 n/a

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,748,067 n/a

• Total Put/Call 1.12 +15.46%

• OEX Put/Call .27 -18.18%

• ISE Sentiment 68.0 +3.03%

• NYSE Arms .52 -58.40%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.67 -7.15%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.15 +.69%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.85 +3.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.24 -3.13%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,682.13 +.42%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.634 Trillion-1.76%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$4.464 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 35.4 -7.9%

• AAII % Bears 32.0 +31.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 216.09 -1.54%

• Crude Oil 49.14 -3.65%

• Reformulated Gasoline 176.13 -5.73%

• Natural Gas 2.71 +1.61%

• Heating Oil 168.80 -2.62%

• Gold 1,200.90 -.22%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 170.81 -2.43%

• Copper 273.40 -2.69%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 226.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 47.08 USD/Ton -11.4%

• Lumber 276.60 -3.25%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,138.38 +1.80%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.5% +70 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0693 n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.0 +.08%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.3 +15.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 63.10 +10.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.90 +6.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 50.0% chance of no change, 50.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/29

• US Dollar Index 97.57 +.21%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.91 +.27%

• Yield Curve 137.0 unch.

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.91% -5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.444 Trillion +.04%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.61 +1.69%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 179.0 -.75%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 22.57 -1.48%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 58.68 -4.30%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 337.39 -1.76%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 75.26 -1.16%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 351.67 -1.56%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 337.15 -8.46%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.58 +.35%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.81% +3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 26.0 +1.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.5 +1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 +.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.57 -2.96%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,092.0 +7.44%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 68.55 +2.18%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 311.21 -2.0%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 90.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.979 Trillion +.16%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,010.60 -2.10%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 285,500 -11,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% -10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.70% +1.0 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 457.0 +4.55%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 46.2 +.7 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.80% +10 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.40/gallon -.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 596.0 -.33%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 994.83 -1.54%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 278,345 +.18%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +2.0%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Leading Sectors

• Homebuilders +5.6%

• Foods +3.2%

• Utilities +2.3%

• Oil Tankers +2.2%

• Tobacco +2.1%

Lagging Sectors

• Restaurants -.6% 

• Gold & Silver -.6%

• Road & Rail -.7%

• Steel -.8%

• Airlines -2.1%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (21)

• ICEL, DYAX, ASPX, MOV, OXM, ALTR, CTRX, ROLL, LEVY, HIFR, NCFT, OLN, FRPT, CAG, CONN, GTN, HRS, SCAI, ENVA, KRFT and HPTX

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)

• MYL, SNX, CJES, WWE, NATH, BDSI and OVAS

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Euro Bounce, Short-Covering, Gaming/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.59 -3.44%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.22 +1.18%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.22 -1.06%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.36 -1.27%

• ISE Sentiment Index 70.0 -32.04%

• Total Put/Call 1.15 +3.60%

• NYSE Arms .52 -46.73% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.33 -1.40%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,093.0 +2.08%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.33 +1.54%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.56 +2.15%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 59.58 -.35%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 311.33 -.92%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.58 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 25.0 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 137.0 +4.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $47.08/Metric Tonne -4.95%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -47.3 +15.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 63.10 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.9 +1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.81 unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +72 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Iran Negotiators Reach Outline Nuclear Deal After Marathon Talks. Iran and world powers said they reached an outline accord that keeps them on track to end a decade-long nuclear dispute, allowing three more months to resolve differences that couldn’t be bridged in the past week’s diplomatic marathon. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Twitter that solutions to the nuclear issue had been found and the process of drafting an accord can begin. Germany’s Foreign Ministry also said on Twitter that a framework solution has been reached. 

• Dijsselbloem Says ‘Still Long Way’ to Go on Greek Proposals. Eurogroup Chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem said there’s a “long way to go” to strike a deal on Greece’s aid proposals even after the Athens government responded to demands for more detail on its bid to end the deadlock. “It’s continuously improving,” Dijsselbloem told reporters today in the Hague. “They deliver more and more proposals that are more and more detailed. On some parts, we will definitely reach an agreement.”

• Sanctions-Strapped Russia Outguns the U.S. in Information War. Moscow drowns out Voice of America, and facts are a casualty. The troubled U.S. agency responsible for delivering news around the world is being outgunned in Eastern Europe by Russian outlets unrestrained by notions of fact-based journalism. The unequal competition raises fears among U.S. officials that Moscow is winning the information war about events in Ukraine, even as the Russian economy staggers under economic sanctions imposed after the takeover of Crimea. “Russia has engaged in a rather remarkable period of the most overt and extensive propaganda exercise that I’ve seen since the very height of the Cold War,” Secretary of State John Kerry told a Senate subcommittee in late February. It’s “spending hugely on this vast propaganda machine,” he told another panel the same day, and it’s succeeding “because there’s nothing countering it.”

• Japan bubble alert found in drug stock rally that won't quit. This year's Japanese stock rally has a surprise leader: pharmaceutical companies, which tend to lag behind the market when it gains. Drugmakers soared 22 percent, the most among the 33 industry groups on the benchmark Topix index, compared with a 10 percent gain for the Topix itself. The Topix Pharmaceutical Index climbed to its highest on record on March 24, and earnings multiples are about twice the market average. The Topix has beaten pharmaceutical shares in 12 of the past 17 years it rose. "Valuations are ridiculous, and foreign investors are scratching their heads," said Richard Whittall, a fund manager at Alltus Capital (U.K.) in Singapore who's watched Japanese stocks for 25 years. "You've seen these underowned areas of the market just go up, up and up. Japanese institutions like buying these stocks. They feel safe." 

• European Stocks Retreat, Paring Weekly Advance as Miners Decline. European stocks slipped, paring a weekly gain, as miners and energy companies retreated. A gauge of commodity producers posted the biggest decline of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index as Societe Generale SA said iron ore prices may extend losses. BHP Billiton Ltd. slid 2.6 percent. Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA contributed the most to a drop in energy stocks, as oil prices fell. The Stoxx 600 declined 0.2 percent to 397.8 at the close of trading, paring its weekly gain to 0.6 percent.

• Iron Ore Seen Extending Slump Below $50 as BHP, Rio Decline. (video) Iron ore, which fell below $50 a metric ton on Wednesday, may extend losses as weakening producer currencies cut mining costs, reducing incentives for the supply cuts needed to balance the market, according to Societe Generale SA. Lower energy prices have lessened freight expenses and the inability of many high-cost Chinese miners to cut output means that iron ore will stay weak, Mark Keenan, Singapore-based head of commodities research for Asia, said on Thursday. The steel-making raw material will probably drop into the low $40s a ton in the coming weeks, IG Markets Ltd. said in an e-mailed note.

• Industrial Stocks Near Trend Break as Low U.S. Rates End Rallies. (graph) An exchange-traded fund of industrial stocks is nearing a technical support level as interest rates fall, signaling the ETF’s underperformance could continue. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund has lagged behind the SPDR Standard & Poor’s 500 ETF by 3 percentage points since Nov. 25 as this stock price ratio has decreased each month this year. During the same time, the yield on 10-year Treasuries has fallen to 1.86 percent from 2.26 percent -- see chart.

• KKR-Backed Energy Hedge Fund Said to Triple Loss Amid Audit. BlackGold Capital Management, the energy-focused hedge fund partly owned by KKR & Co., told investors that losses amid the oil slump in December were almost triple its initial report after an auditor examined how it valued debt holdings, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. The $2 billion investment firm revised the loss to 17 percent last month from the 6 percent decline it previously reported, according to the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. The Houston-based fund cited difficulty in valuing some energy bonds at the height of the market’s turmoil, they said.

• Thanks to Obama, the New World of Campaign Finance Is Unlimited and Undisclosed. Potential presidential candidates this year–including Bush–are using outside groups to pay for traditional functions of an early campaign or political committee, including communications, policy development, and research.  Unlike a presidential campaign or the committees that politicians are supposed to use while they consider running for the White House, these groups have no legal limits on contributions, which worries watchdogs.

Wall Street Journal:

• Iran Nuclear Talks: Streaming Coverage.

• 5 Things to Watch in the March Jobs Report.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Orders for oil equipment plunge in February. 

Fox News: 

• More than 70 dead in Al-Shabaab attack on Kenyan college, as Christians reportedly held hostage. (video) More than 70 people have been killed in an attack Thursday by Al Qaeda-linked terror group Al-Shabaab on a Kenyan college, Interior Minister Joseph Nkaissery said.  Al-Shabaab says they are "holding many Christians alive" after claiming responsibility for the attack at Garissa University that left dozens more injured and hundreds of students unaccounted for.

• Two women arrested in alleged terrorist bomb plot targeting New York. (video) Two women suspected of being terrorist sympathizers were arrested Thursday for allegedly plotting to detonate pressure cooker bombs in New York, Fox News has learned. An FBI spokesperson confirmed the arrests, but circumstances surrounding the arrests or the alleged plot were not immediately clear. NYPD Deputy Commissioner John Miller said the arrests were part of a local and federal investigation.

ZeroHedge:

• Chart Of The Day: Is The US Already In A Recession?

• More Unofficial Capital Controls In The US: PFIC Rules.

• Chaos In Yemen: Chinese Troops Arrive As US-Armed Rebels Set Sights On Central Bank.

• Martin Armstrong: "Hillary Commits A Crime And They Defend Her". (video)

• Greece Faces D-Day On April 9, Will Default Within 30 Days Of Missed Payment, BofAML Says. (graph)

• The "Revolver Raid" Arrives: A Wave Of Shale Bankruptcies Has Just Been Unleashed.

• The U.S. Economy Slows To Stall Speed. (graph)

• US Imports Collapse Most Since Lehman. (graph)

• Initial Claims Slide Again; Trade Deficit Lowest Since 2009 Despite Soaring Dollar On Imports Plunge. (graph)

• Dear Texas, Welcome To The Recession. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Crude oil is tumbling. (graph)

• OPEC oil export revenues are down 11% from 2013.

Financial Times: 

• Emerging markets: The great unravelling. Developing economies are suffering their biggest capital outflows since the financial crisis.

Telegraph:

• Greek defiance mounts as Alexis Tsipras turns to Russia and China. Alexis Tspiras is playing an escalating game of brinkmanship, trying to force Europe to give ground or risk a chain-reaction that could cripple the EU. 

• Eurozone growth forecasts are too optimistic, ECB officials warn. As the European Central Bank has revised up its forecasts for growth and inflation, some members of its governing council have warned that its assessment may be too optimistic. 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.09%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -.92% 2) Gold & Silver -.83% 3) Software -.61%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• AXTA, TRIB, CARB, NUVA, TRUE, PRGS, ESPR, ANET, ODFL, SPB, URBN, SNX, XLRN, AYI, NLNK, RCPT, KRFT, LSTR, ECHO, AXLL, CNW, SMG, CBOE, SHPG and NDRM
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KMX 2) EMR 3) XLP 4) M 5) CHK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GRMN 2) NUVA 3) BABA 4) UTIW 5) SNDK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.59%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +2.17% 2) Oil Service +1.88% 3) Hospitals +1.31%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KMX, OVAS, WBAI, GSM, SGMS, LBIO, RPTP, TDW and CBM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KMX 2) OC 3) NTAP 4) RPTP 5) MVIS
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RAD 2) AN 3) RTN 4) SUNE 5) SPG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Iran Nuclear Deal Worries, Yen Strength, Biotech/Transport Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.67 +2.49%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.44 -.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.35 -1.90%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.86 +.41%

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +50.0%

• Total Put/Call 1.09 +3.81%

• NYSE Arms .85 -42.21% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.55 -.05%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,070.0 +2.18%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.30 +1.64%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.09 -.47%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 59.80 -.33%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 313.66 -2.12%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.56 +.18%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.50 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 25.25 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.25 +.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 133.0 -5.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $49.53/Metric Tonne -3.54%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -62.5 -3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 62.50 +4.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.3 +3.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.81 +4.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +126 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +44 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/biotech/tech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long