Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Euro/Oil Bounce, Short-Covering, Metals & Mining/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.46 -1.43%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.82 +.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.85 -2.48%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.07 -1.65%

• ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +64.71%

• Total Put/Call .88 -21.43%

• NYSE Arms .61 +18.03% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.41 -2.37%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,112.0 -.54%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.43 n/a

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.34 -.53%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.21 -.63%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 298.57 -4.0%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.67 +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 unch.

• TED Spread 26.25 +1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 141.0 +4.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $47.08/Metric Tonne n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.5 -9.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 63.70 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.5 -.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.85 +4.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +219 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/retail/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.34%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -.64% 2) Homebuilders -.52% 3) Airlines -.47%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CBMG, DM, OVAS, MTB, MYRG, USAK, FIX, ABTL, ALTR, RCPT, MSI, GCI, HCHC, YRCW, APOL, KMX, YDLE, SPB, SSP, NNI, BIDU, LNN, SAFM, UAL and AGCO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) COP 2) HYG 3) EMR 4) BBBY 5) EWW
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SKYW 2) JNJ 3) CNX 4) AGCO 5) GRMN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.52%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.33% 2) Oil Service +1.55% 3) Utilities +1.41%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• QURE, EPAM, CWCO, TSLA, CLDN, CHMT, MAT, MTDR and EVEP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SLCA 2) MTG 3) WWAV 4) GRPN 5) MAT
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MAT 2) LL 3) VMW 4) L 5) VTR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Netanyahu: More Sanctions Would Get Better Iran Nuke Deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the U.S. and world powers should increase sanctions on Iran to negotiate a better deal on Tehran’s nuclear program, advice quickly rejected by the White House. Netanyahu used appearances on three U.S. Sunday television talk shows to drive home his opposition to what he called a bad deal with Iran that would leave the Persian Gulf nation able to produce “many nuclear bombs” within years. Unless the agreement is changed, he said, “This deal is a dream deal for Iran and a nightmare deal for the world.”

• Ukrainian Truce Challenged as Car Blasts Kill Government Troops. Six Ukrainian soldiers were killed and two wounded in a pair of car explosions on Sunday after President Petro Poroshenko vowed to push for international peacekeepers to help secure a truce in the rebel-controlled east. “If peacekeepers help to come to a political resolution and reintegration of these occupied territories into Ukraine, we have to go this way,” Poroshenko said in an interview with Channel 5 TV on Saturday, according to a transcript from his office. Foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France may meet soon to discuss details and timing of the proposed peacekeeping mission, he said.

• Russia Said to Plan No Aid to Greece, May Ease Curbs on Food. Russia isn’t considering any financial assistance for Greece as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras plans to visit Moscow next week, according to three Russian government officials with knowledge of the discussions. Even so, Russia is ready to discuss easing restrictions on Greek food products, which were imposed as as part of the retaliation for European Union sanctions levied over the conflict in Ukraine, said two of the three officials, who asked not to be identified because the information is confidential.

• China Approves 30 New IPOs for April. (video)

• Saudis Raise Crude Oil Pricing to Asia on Signs of Demand Growth. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, raised pricing for all May sales to Asia, after the country’s oil minister said global demand was improving. State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. narrowed the discount for its Arab Light grade to Asia to the least since December, setting the crude at a discount of 60 cents a barrel to the regional benchmark, the company said in an e-mailed statement. The May pricing is 30 cents higher than in April. The company known as Saudi Aramco also increased the pricing of the other four grades it ships to Asia.

Wall Street Journal:

• As Tensions With West Rise, Russia Increasingly Rattles Nuclear Saber. Bellicose rhetoric has soared since start of Ukraine conflict to rival Cold War levels. It wasn’t an ordinary Valentine’s Day for the students from across Russia arriving at a military institute outside Moscow. Their date was with a Topol, the intercontinental ballistic missile at the heart of the country’s nuclear arsenal....

• Political Battle Ramps Up Over Iran. President Obama must overcome skeptical Republicans as well as some Democrats in Congress. President Barack Obama’s bet on a diplomatic agreement to deter Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon faces an immediate test at home, where he must overcome the politics of skeptical Republicans as well as some Democrats in Congress. The political struggle—part of the most complex battle of Mr. Obama’s presidency...

• California’s Green Drought. How bad policies are compounding the state’s water shortage.

Fox News:

• Netanyahu urges US to seek better deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the U.S. to seek a better deal with Iran Sunday over its nuclear program and said that he’s "not trying to kill any deal,” just a “bad deal.” “It could be a historic bad deal because it leaves the preeminent terrorist state of our time a vast nuclear infrastructure,” Netanyahu said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “Thousands of centrifuges will be left, not a singular facility, including underground facilities will be shut down.” Netanyahu added that the deal leaves Iran with “the capacity to produce material for many nuclear bombs.” Netanyahu also warned on ABC’s “This Week” that the deal could “spark a nuclear arms race among the Sunni countries in the middle east.”

CNBC:

• Jobs shocker may show that economy is in real trouble. (video) In the wake of March's tepid jobs creation, it may be time to take a harder look at this soft patch.

Zero Hedge:

• March Payrolls Huge Miss: Only 126,000 Jobs Added, Worst Since December 2013. (graph)

• No Country For Young Workers: Only Americans 55 And Older Found Jobs In March. (graph)

• Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar To Record 93.2 Million As Participation Rate Drops To February 1978 Levels. (graph)

• Dow Futures Close Down 200; S&P Ends Week Negative Year-To-Date.

• What If An Oil Rebound Never Comes?

• Wien's World: Another Billionaire Detached From Society. (graph)

• Ahoy! Oil Tankers Form Four-Mile Line In Persian Gulf As Iran Talks Stoke Supply Glut Fears.

• Here We Go: Goldman Declares That "The Right Policy Would Be To Put Hikes On Hold For Now".

• Europe's Currency Manipulation.

• Is The Stage Set For A High Yield Meltdown? (graph)

• Japan Admits Fabricating 2014 Wage Growth Data. (graph)

• How Liquidity Drives The US Stock Market. (graph)

• German Bank Sets Precedent: Sues The ECB.

• Arming for Riots Across America? Homeland Stockpiling “Less Lethal Specialty Munitions”.

• Meet The New Recession Cycle - It's Triggered By Bursting Bubbles, Not Surging Inflation. (graph)

• Germany Generously Offers To Freeze The Bank Accounts Of Wealthy Greeks.

• Peak Keynesian Faith, Hope, & Insanity. (graph)

• Treasurys Held In Custody At The Fed Jump By Record $63 Billion In One Week. (graph)

• Subprime Nation: Risky Loans Are In The "Driver's" Seat. (graph)

• 5 Things To Ponder: Weather, Recession, Liquidation, Gluts, & Enigmas.

• Bubble Confirmed: From Sock Puppets To Action Heroes.

• Saudi Arabia's Kingdom Tower - The Pointless Hubris Of A Decadent Tyranny. (pic)

• If Anyone Doubts We Are In A Stock Market Bubble, Show Them This. (graph)

• Cypriot President Throws Greeks Under The Bus: "Planning To Deal With Grexit". (graph)

• Facing A Housing Hard-Landing, Chinese Propaganda Goes All-In: "Set Positive Agenda; Boost Market Confidence". (graph)

• Running Out Of Accounting Gimmicks: EPS Addbacks Surge Most Since Lehman. (graph)

• Saudi Stocks Are Plunging Following Rejection Of Russian Embargo Proposal; Death Toll Mounts.

• Here Comes Solyndra 2.0: Obama To Hire 75,000 Solar Workers.

Business Insider:

• 4 reasons Nike's(NKE) business will dominate.

• Russian soldiers have given up pretending they are not fighting in Ukraine.

• China targets the dollar. Now even Israel – joined at the hip to the US though the relationship has run into rough waters – has applied to become a founding member of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Despite US gyrations to keep them from it, over 40 countries, including bosom buddies Australia, Britain, and Germany, have signed up to join. Japan is still wavering politely.

• Photos of a ruined Iraqi city prove that liberation from ISIS comes at a heavy price.

• Ukraine's 'frozen conflict' has gone on for one year.

• The US and Iran are closer in Iraq than people realize — and things are getting ugly. The Obama administration is no longer hiding the fact that the US is serving as the air force for Iran-backed Shia militias fighting ISIS in Iraq. As Iraq forces connect the US with Iran, the Obama administration is placed squarely on the Shia side of the emerging and increasingly brutal sectarian war.

• Iraqi prime minister: Foreigners are taking over ISIS as the terror army keeps growing.

• The very first human trial of a new approach to cancer treatment has scientists excited.

• 70% of people on anti-depressants aren't clinically depressed.

• 6% of China's newest stock market investors can't read.

• Israeli expert: There are 6 gaping areas of disagreement in the US-Iran nuclear talks.

• AT&T(T) will charge customers to keep their browsing data private.

• Warren Buffett's mobile home empire preys on the poor.

• Former top CIA official: Here's Iran's grand strategy.

• Greek officials reportedly have a plan that would 'cause a furor in the markets'.

• An Iran deal could make the US look weak and embolden rogue regimes.

• ROLLING STONE: 'We would like to apologize to our readers and to all of those who were damaged by our story'.

Reuters:

• Japan's wary manufacturers resist Abe's urge to splurge. Even as output recovers, Japanese companies remain cautious about new capital investment in factories and equipment. The trend is especially pronounced for smaller firms down the supply chain.

Financial Times:

• Frustrated officials want Greek premier to ditch Syriza far left. Eurozone authorities’ frustration with Greece has grown so intense that a change in the current Athens government’s make-up, however far-fetched, has become a frequent topic of conversation on the sidelines of bailout talks. Many officials — up to and including some eurozone finance ministers — have suggested privately that only a decision by Alexis Tsipras, Greek prime minister, to jettison the far left of his governing Syriza party can make a bailout agreement possible.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -,25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 -.5 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 58.50 -1.0 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.68%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.66%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (SHLM)/.39

Economic Releases
9:45 am EST

• The Final Markit US Services PMI for March is estimated at 58.6 versus a prior estimate of 58.6.

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for March is estimated to fall to 56.5 versus 56.9 in February.

Upcoming Splits

• (SBUX) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The RBA rate decision, Labor Market Conditions Index for March and Medicare Advantage rate announcements could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Fed rate hike worries, global growth fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, technical selling, yen strength and earnings concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,066.96 +.53%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change