Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Short-Covering, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.64 -9.19%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.82 -.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.35 -2.32%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.93 -1.23%

• ISE Sentiment Index 185.0 +146.67%

• Total Put/Call .85 -20.56%

• NYSE Arms .75 +45.30% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 90.55 -2.31%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,672.0 +1.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.25 -5.82%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.93 +3.16%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 73.60 -3.30%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 345.90 -4.50%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.36 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 26.25 -3.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -38.25 -1.5 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.43 +.37%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .24% +4.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 130.0 +3.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $39.36/Metric Tonne +.77%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -22.20 -1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.5 +.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.40 -1.3 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51 +2.0 basis points
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) .95 -.21

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +365 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -183 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/tech/medical sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer: 

• Large-Cap Growth +.98%

Sector Underperformers: 

• 1) Coal -4.14% 2) Oil Tankers -1.91% 3) Steel -.03%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• KMT, NCLH, GLP, SWHC, AGCO, DECK, WSTC, NEOS, MMM, OLED, FDS, ATI, ZOES, LNG, H, ANAC, HQY, AIT, TMH, DE, ESPR, BDC, BGG, COG and ATI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 

• 1) BTU 2) PII 3) JBL 4) LEN 5) FCX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 

• 1) ZOES 2) MMM 3) PRTY 4) CLVS 5) GNC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.7%

Sector Outperformers: 

• 1) Oil Service +3.28% 2) Gaming +3.09% 3) Banks +3.05%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 

• IRC, LL, AGRO, PCRX, AMG, AKBA, ICPT, WCC, SAGE, GBX, STMP, AMG, NMFC, SPWR, APO, SC, CEQP, PNK, COH, ACAD, CPF, BW, LMCA, CVBF, CPF, RSO, BPT, GBCI, BOH, KYN and AIRM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 

• 1) ETFC 2) VMW 3) LL 4) SYMC 5)SIRI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 

• 1) COH 2) FEYE 3) AMGN 4) BA 5) CLW

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.8% Above 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 76.0% of Issues Advancing, 22.0% Declining
• 15 New 52-Week Highs, 129 New Lows
• 26.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 33.4
• Vix 21.1 -7.1%
• Total Put/Call .91 -14.9%
• TRIN/Arms .72 +26.42%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:   

• Emerging-Market Turmoil Enters New Phase as Fed Takes Back Seat. Impeachments, ministerial sackings and warplanes. As if emerging-market investors didn’t have enough to worry about with the Federal Reserve poised to end a seven-year era of near-zero interest rates, political turmoil has buffeted developing economies more than normal in the past few weeks. South Africa’s rand whipsawed after President Jacob Zuma named a second finance minister in four days and Polish stocks slumped to a six-year low amid a policy shakeup by the new government. Brazil was on the brink of impeaching the president, while Turkey’s standoff with Russia over a downed warplane triggered a selloff in lira assets. “We’ve seen political risks come to the fore,” said William Jackson, a senior emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “The timing couldn’t be worse. Those countries where political risks are excessive are likely to suffer a double whammy” if there’s more turbulence following the Fed rate increase, he said.
• Abe Deflation Fight Has Foes on Nearly Every Street Corner. Japan's ubiquitous vending machines locked in a price war. They stand resolutely on street corners around Japan, proclaiming that deflation has not been vanquished, much as the Abe administration and the central bank have tried. They are the country’s 5 million vending machines, and as anyone who has visited can attest, they are seemingly everywhere: from the capital’s vast network of train and subway stations, to Kyoto’s historic shrines and temples, to Okinawa’s remotest islands, and even on Mount Fuji. At about one for every 25 people, Japan has the most vending machines per capita in the world -- double the rate of the U.S. 
• Rio CEO Says Iron Ore Rivals `Hanging on by Their Fingernails'. The iron ore collapse has pushed producers to the brink of survival, according to the head of the world’s second-biggest mining company. “There are a lot of producers that we believed would leave the market that are hanging on by their fingernails,” Sam Walsh, chief executive officer of Rio Tinto Group, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London. “They are burning up cash reserves of their shareholders.” 
• Asian Stocks Decline as Fed Rate Concern Offsets Energy Gains. Asian stocks fell amid concern over turbulence in the credit markets as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise U.S. interest rates. Energy shares rose for the first time in 10 days after crude oil rebounded. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2 percent to 127.85 as of 9:11 a.m. in Tokyo, extending declines for a sixth day.
• Will the High-Yield Credit Rout Spark a Recession? (video)
• Creditors Bawl: How Investors Ignored Risk of Junk-Bond Rout. You had to see this one coming. Warnings of a high-yield bloodbath were plentiful: The shale driller that missed its first payment. The clothing manufacturer and the software maker among the many companies that issued debt, payable in more debt, earmarked to reward managers who’d already loaded them up with debt.

Wall Street Journal:

• Junk-Bond Selloff Intensifies. Rout reaches a third consecutive trading day and shares of some asset managers tumble. Investors retreated from the U.S. junk-bond market for the third straight trading day and stocks of large asset managers were hit by heavy selling, a sign that the deepest turmoil in financial markets since summer is intensifying.
• U.S. Counterterrorism Officials Plan to Beef Up Social-Media Scrutiny. The Department of Homeland Security is working on a plan to scrutinize social-media posts as part of its visa application process. 
• As Commercial Real-Estate Prices Soar, Fed Weighs Consequences. The Federal Reserve would act only if the market risked a sharp reversal that would hurt the U.S. economy.
• China’s Workers Are Fighting Back as Economic Dream Fades. For workers like Li Jiang, factory closings represent a failed promise of a better life earned far from home.
• Fed’s George Questions Proposal to Slash Bank Capital Held At Fed Banks. Kansas City Fed president warns the idea ‘is not fully understood'.
• The No-Growth Democratic Party. Hillary Clinton and her rivals seem to be competing to see who could worsen an already anemic economy.

Fox News:

• Agents reportedly blocked by secret US policy from looking at social media of visa applicants. (video) A secret U.S. policy that prohibits immigration officials from reviewing the social media messages of foreign citizens applying for U.S. visas was reportedly kept in place over fears of a civil liberties backlash and “bad public relations.”

CNBC:

• Energy could slam bonds more than Fed. (video)
• Lumber Liquidators(LL) shares spike as critic backs off.
• This commodity is in an ‘epic bear market’: Trader. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• "Nobody Could Have Possibly Seen This Coming".
• This Is How The Credit Crisis Spreads To Stocks. (graph)
• "Stealth" Currency War Continues - China Weakens Yuan Fix For 7th Consecutive Day. (graph)
• Chesapeake Bonds Plummet To 27 Cents Of Par After Company Hires Restructuring Advisor. (graph)
• Chinese Officials Admit To "Significantly Faking And Overstating" Economic Data.
• These Are Deutsche Bank's Two Top Trades After A Fed Rate Hike.
• Prominent Tennessee Senator Fails To Disclose Millions In Hedge Fund, Real Estate Investments.
• Fed-pocalypse Now?
• Get High Or Else! (graph)
• Credit Carnage & Contagion Sparks Panic... Buying Of Stocks. (graph)

Business Insider:

• It is going to be even worse than we thought on Wall Street.
• BAML: 'It's death by a thousand paper cuts'. The high-yield market is in the midst of a meltdown.
• National Guard member pleads guilty to supporting ISIS and planning an attack on US soil.
• The 2 factors aggravating junk-bond market volatility aren't going away anytime soon.
• It's the end of the bubble finance era.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 144.0 +2.0 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 76.0 -2.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.20 +.03%.
• S&P 500 futures +.27%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Dec. is estimated to rise to -7.0 versus -10.74 in November.
• The CPI for November is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in October.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy for November is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in October.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for November.  

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for December is estimated to rise to 63.0 versus 62.0 in November. 

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for October.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German ZEW Index, UK inflation report, weekly US retail sales reports, (AGCO) analyst meeting, (SCTY) analyst day, (MMM) outlook meeting and the (DOV) investor dinner could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Rising Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Worries, Hospital/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.01 -5.66%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.78 -.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.64 +.43%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.69 -3.91%

• ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 +46.0%

• Total Put/Call 1.09 +1.87%

• NYSE Arms .72 -53.27% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.29 +3.60%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,650.0 +14.78%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 82.02 +3.70%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.38 +2.37%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 77.43 -1.22%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 370.45 +4.47%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 123.36 -.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.25 -3.75 basis points

• TED Spread 29.25 +4.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -36.75 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.16 -.17%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% -2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 127.0 +2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $39.06/Metric Tonne +1.98%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.70 +1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.0 +1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.70 +2.1 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.49 -1.0 basis point
• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 1.16 +.28

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -138 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -247 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +89 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long