Monday, April 03, 2017

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:30 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Retail -1.2% 2) Computer Hardware -1.2% 3) Oil Service -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • UTHR, ACOR, KMX, ORLY, BOFI, AXL and ZTO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) RTN 2) PNRA 3) KMX 4) FIT 5) HUN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ACOR 2) ORLY 3) FCAU 4) RWLK 5) AZO
Charts:
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Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:08 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +1.4% 2) HMOs +1.1% 3) Gaming +.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • NVCR, ELOS, COOL, PNRA, LL, WIX, WBAI, FMC, IPDN, RGR, TSLA, GBNK, ARCH, MTH, MTSI, NDRM, AOBC, YPF, KITE, OMER, TECK, LIVN, QCP, NVTA and AOBC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PNRA 2) KMX 3) LL 4) MBI 5) CCL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) INCY 2) NVCR 3) NVTA 4) TSLA 5) CGNX
Charts:
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Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 10:48 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
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Sunday, April 02, 2017

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 8:29 PM
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • China Has Its Worst-Ever Start to a Year For Defaults. China’s deleveraging push has racked up the most defaults on corporate bonds ever for a first quarter, and the identity of the debtors is pretty revealing. Seven companies have defaulted on a total of nine bonds onshore so far in 2017, versus 29 for all of last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In a sign of the struggles facing China’s old economic model, most of them depend on heavy industry and construction. While it’s still far from a crisis point, the defaults shows how policy makers’ efforts to reduce the liquidity that had propelled the bond market until late last year is exacting casualties. “Weak companies can’t sell bonds, which adds to the pressure on their cash flow,” said Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank Co. in Shenzhen. “The pace of defaults will continue. It will be even more difficult for weak companies to sell bonds because corporate bond yields may rise further -- the current yield premium doesn’t provide enough protection against credit risks.”
  • Trump Says U.S. Would Act Alone on North Korean Nuclear Threat. President Donald Trump said the U.S. can “totally” address North Korea’s nuclear threat unilaterally if China doesn’t cooperate to put pressure on that nation, according to the Financial Times. “If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will. That is all I am telling you,” Trump said in an interview published on Sunday. When pressed about whether he could do it one-on-one without China’s help, the president said, “I don’t have to say any more. Totally.” The comments come ahead of Trump’s planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida. The North Korean threat is expected to take center stage at the April 6-7 talks. Trump said he’ll discuss North Korea and the scope for cooperation when he hosts the Chinese leader.
  • Asian Stocks Poised to Nudge Higher; Euro Rises. Stocks looked set to climb as trading begins on Monday in Asia ahead of a busy week of macro-economic events that culminates in the monthly U.S. jobs report. Equity futures in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong were up slightly in their most recent trading. The euro climbed early Monday, after posting its first weekly decline since February, while the yen and the Aussie both traded flat against the dollar. Markets in China and Taiwan are closed for holidays. As the second quarter gets going, political developments threaten to cloud the improving global economic outlook. Even last month’s Federal Reserve interest-rate increase and the prospect of tighter monetary policy later this year has failed to spur the greenback, which fell to a four-month low last mont
    h on concern President Donald Trump may struggle to steer his promised tax cuts through Congress. The yen traded at 111.45 per dollar as of 7:06 a.m. in Tokyo. The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.0665. Futures on the Nikkei 225 climbed 0.3 percent in Singapore and contracts on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent. Hang Seng futures advanced 0.2 percent, while contracts on South Korea’s Kospi index were flat.
  • OPEC's Barkindo Sees Progress in Oil Cuts as Stockpiles Fall. Crude stockpiles are starting to decline in a sign that the production cuts implemented this year are bringing the market to balance, according to OPEC’s Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo. An overhang of an estimated 285 million barrels of oil in storage has been a drag on crude prices even as OPEC and some non-members producers curbed output. Six members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Oman back extending production cuts beyond June, with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait saying oil stockpiles need to fall to the five-year average. Oil had its biggest weekly increase this year last week amid speculation OPEC will extend its deal to curb output, and after a U.S. government report showed the nation’s refineries boosted crude use by the most in almost three years while fuel supplies fell. Morgan Stanley said in a report that “less visible” crude stockpiles, including in China, Japan and floating storage around the world, have declined 72 million barrels this year.
  • OPEC Deal Pushes Russian Oil Output Down 1.6 Percent From Peak. Russia cut its crude production in March, moving closer to fulfilling its agreement with OPEC as the deadline approaches. Production of crude and condensate fell to 11.05 million barrels a day, down 1.6 percent from Russia’s post-Soviet high of 11.23 million barrels in October, according to data from the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK statistics unit. Russia has committed to reducing supply by as much as 300,000 barrels a day by the end of this month.
  • A Squabble at Iraq's Oldest Oil Field Could Rock Global Supplies. A territorial dispute in northern Iraq threatens to disrupt oil output at a field containing as much crude as Norway, even as U.S.-backed forces prepare what could be a decisive blow against Islamic State militants in the nearby city of Mosul. Kirkuk, where Iraq first discovered oil in 1927, can produce more than 1 million barrels a day but is pumping at less than half its capacity while competing ethnic and political groups scramble to control its 9 billion barrels of reserves.
  • McConnell Says He's `Very Confident' Congress Can Avoid Shutdown. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he’s “very confident” Congress can pass a funding bill that would avoid a government shutdown at the end of April. McConnell weighed in on the first discussions about government-wide spending in President Donald Trump’s administration on “Fox News Sunday,” saying the appropriations committees of the House and Senate were “working on the bills on a bipartisan basis” to fund the government after April 28.
Wall Street Journal:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.5 +.75 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 21.25 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.14 unch.
  • S&P 500 futures +.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to fall to 57.1 versus 57.7 in February.
  • ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to fall to 66.0 versus 68.0 in February.
  • Construction Spending MoM for February is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -1.0% decline in January.  
Afternoon:
  • Total Vehicle Sales for March are estimated to fall to 17.3M versus 17.47M in February.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Dudley speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, Eurozone PPI report and the Japan Manufacturing PPI report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally  into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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Weekly Outlook

Posted by Gary .....at 7:33 PM
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, tax reform/deregulation/infrastructure spending hopes, commodity strength, yen weakness, economic optimism and technical buying. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.
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Saturday, April 01, 2017

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 8:54 PM
Bloomberg:
  • Whimpering Finish Caps Best Quarter for U.S. Equities Since 2015. Its last day may have been a washout, but the first quarter just took its place among the best of the lengthening bull run for U.S. stocks. Even with a 0.2 percent decline Friday, the S&P 500 Index surged 5.5 percent in the three months ended March 31, the biggest advance since shares jumped 6.5 percent at the end of 2015. More than 350 companies rose in the quarter as gains that began just before Election Day swelled to 14 percent. While equities have lost the momentum of February, when investors anticipating President Donald Trump growth programs pushed the S&P 500 higher for six straight weeks, March’s final five sessions still notched the best return since Valentine’s week. Energy producers led the advance, rallying 2.2 percent for the biggest increase since early December while consumer stocks, commodity companies tech shares each climbed more than 1 percent.
  • Sturgeon Sticks With Timing for Scottish Independence Referendum. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the U.K.’s refusal to negotiate a date for an independence referendum is untenable as she vowed to keep pushing for a vote. The Scottish National Party leader last week wrote to Prime Minister Theresa May seeking the power to hold one once the terms are known for Britain’s departure from the European Union, something that Scots opposed. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Sturgeon said the U.K. plan is to wrap up talks by spring 2019 so Scots should have their vote by then.
  • Turmoil Deepens in Latin America as Paraguay's Congress Smolders. Paraguay’s President Horacio Cartes proudly watched Friday morning as children handed out gifts to visiting central bankers and finance officials in Asuncion, a rare moment in the spotlight for one of South America’s smallest nations. Twelve hours later, Paraguay was still attracting attention, but for the wrong reasons as violent protests followed the senate’s unexpected approval of a bill allowing Cartes to stand for re-election. One person died as demonstrators stormed the congress building in the nation’s capital, and set it ablaze.
  • U.S. Petroleum Exports Climb to Record as Crude Output Grows. The year 2017 started off with a bang for American oil companies as total crude and petroleum products exports rose to a record 5.69 million barrels a day in January, government data show. A surplus of fuels means exports are available all the way down the hydrocarbon chain from crude to propane as resilient U.S. shale producers are learning to grow their output with oil dancing around the $50-a-barrel mark.
Wall Street Journal:
  • The Climate Yawns. Donald Trump is no more a planet wrecker than Barack Obama (as measured to the third decimal).
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (UA), (FDX) and (LOW).
  • Had bearish commentary on (KMX).
Zero Hedge:
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