Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -24.9% Below 100-Day Average
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 30.0% of Issues Advancing, 66.7% Declining
• 29 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 42.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.6%
• Vix 19.6 +3.6%
• Total Put/Call .93 +10.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.48 +107.9%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 -.25 basis point. 
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 13.0 -.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.94 -.02%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.62%.
• S&P 500 futures -1.04%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.15%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (GBX)/.97

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for March is estimated to fall to 185K versus 313K in February. 
• The Unemployment Rate is estimated to fall to 4.0% versus 4.1% in February.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for March are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in February.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for February is estimated to rise to $15.5B versus $13.91B in January.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking and the German Industrial Production report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminishing Trade War Fears, Earnings Optimism, Yen Weakness, Commodity/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.0 -5.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.88 +.26%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.20 -.85%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.1 -5.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +1.0%
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -23.8%

• NYSE Arms .60 -17.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.18 -2.66%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 464.0 -1.42%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.2 -5.15%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 127.0 +2.75 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.97 -2.41%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 132.88 -1.62%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 148.63 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.75 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 62.0 +4.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.5 +4.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.96 -.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.71% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 52.5 +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 63.32 USD/Metric Tonne +1.57%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.0 -2.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.50 -7.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.80 -3.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 unch.
  
• 79.9% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 81.6% chance at August 1 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +301 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +215 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial/medical/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them 

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -1.7% 2) Semis -1.6% 3) Disk Drives -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CLLS, CONN, MU, INNT and ANAB

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FITB 2) HES 3) LFIN 4) K 5) CL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CNAT 2) XRF 3) UA 4) OLLI 5) PFE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.1% 2) Steel +2.7% 3) Homebuilding +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LFIN, IEFA, ICPT, EHIC, CYOU, IGV, BREW, GMS, IMO, VERI, AVHI, LW, PLSE, VNOM, TSLA, HOME, MOV, NEWA, REGI, KEX, MRC, IBKR, CIB, FNSR, APOG, CRZO, ACXM and TK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BYD 2) ITB 3) KSU 4) FAST 5) HAIN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AYI 2) FNSR 3) AMD 4) BA 5) LEN

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.4% Below 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 69.4% of Issues Advancing, 27.7% Declining
• 40 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 40.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.6%
• Vix 19.2 -4.4%
• Total Put/Call .67 -33.7%
• TRIN/Arms .48 -33.1%