Friday, December 18, 2020

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Virus Shutdown Worries, Diminished Stimulus Hopes, Technical Selling, Commodity/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.8 +4.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,372.0 -69.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.83 +.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.34 +.58%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.4 +1.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 -39.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .69 +1.47%
  • NYSE Arms 1.48 +59.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.43 +1.61%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 574.05 -1.34%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.46 +4.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 114.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 56.66 +.03%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 156.76 +1.22%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 183.37 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 15.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.50 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.75 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.86 -.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 80.5 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 162.10 USD/Metric Tonne 32.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 71.3 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 205.50 +6.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.6 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.96 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Steel -2.5% 2) Oil Service -1.7% 3) Banks -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • IRTC, BIGC, RKT, PDM, GNL, ALXO, SWI, NKTR, CRS, MAC, ARVN, BIG, ADVM, FDX, GCO, RVP, PI, IHRT, ALVR, LCA, MEDP, SI, AINV, X, CDE, OSTK, SCHL and GLSI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DD 2) DRI 3) ATUS 4) FL 5) MJ
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CVIAQ 2) SCHL 3) CDE 4) PLTR 5) IHRT
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +1.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +3.9% 2) Education +2.8% 3) Networking +1.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MGNI, FEYE, BEAT, TISI, TENB, HGEN, QLYS, TTCF, PRG, VRNS, CRWD, RPD, BLNK, RMG, PFPT, FUBO, MDXG, SLP, DFIN, OCFC, WGO, COHU, LPSN, INFN, VCRA, INFN, LAZR, PANW, AHCO, QS, CMBM, VRM, KPTI, NCNO, IIVI, CDMO, STRL, ADV, GLDD, RYTM and MGNX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ATUS 2) TISI 3) FLEX 4) FEYE 5) BK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ESTE 2) BEAT 3) LEN 4) WGO 5) ENSG
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, December 17, 2020

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:               
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:   
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:         
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:

@kylenabecker:

TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Politico:
Daily Caller:
NTD News:
ProtectTheVote.com: 
HereIsTheEvidence.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 56.75 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 28.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.91 -.08%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,460.0 +19.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.0 +.73%
  • FTSE 100 futures -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (APOG)/.69
  • (DRI)/.72
  • (WGO)/.98
After the Close:
  • (NKE)/.62
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST:
  • The Current Account Deficit for 3Q is estimated at -$187.0B versus -$170.5B in 2Q.
10:00 am EST
  • The Leading Index for Nov. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Brainard speaking, Fed stress test results released, government funding deadline and the (CNC) investor day could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, Vaccine Optimism, Oil Gain, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.8 -3.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,450.0 +87.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.80 +.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 +.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.7 -1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 159.0 +40.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .64 -18.0%
  • NYSE Arms .94 -24.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.57 -.64%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 576.18 -.70%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.09 -1.69%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 56.62 -1.15%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 155.41 -2.23%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 183.34 +.36%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 15.5 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.50 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.0 -2.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.94 +.55%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 80.75 +3.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 158.22 USD/Metric Tonne +2.78%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 72.0 +.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 198.70 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.6 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -26 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/biotech/industrial/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long