Thursday, December 17, 2020

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Stimulus Hopes, Vaccine Optimism, Oil Gain, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.8 -3.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,450.0 +87.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.80 +.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 +.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.7 -1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 159.0 +40.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .64 -18.0%
  • NYSE Arms .94 -24.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.57 -.64%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 576.18 -.70%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.09 -1.69%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 56.62 -1.15%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 155.41 -2.23%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 183.34 +.36%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 15.5 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.50 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.0 -2.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.94 +.55%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 80.75 +3.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 158.22 USD/Metric Tonne +2.78%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 72.0 +.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 198.70 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.6 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -26 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/biotech/industrial/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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