Monday, December 07, 2020

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Economic Shutdown Fears, Diminished Stimulus Hopes, Oil Decline, Energy/Gaming Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.7 +4.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,452.0 -132.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.58 -.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 +1.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.4 +1.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 -5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .60 -10.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.02 +25.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.52 +3.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 608.47 -.31%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.68 +7.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 119.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.34 +.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 162.62 +2.09%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 182.08 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.25 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -2.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.5 +2.0 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.21 +.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 80.5 +4.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 145.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.78%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 70.10 -4.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 139.1 +2.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 61.90 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -137 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/medical/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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