Friday, December 18, 2020

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Virus Shutdown Worries, Diminished Stimulus Hopes, Technical Selling, Commodity/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.8 +4.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,372.0 -69.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.83 +.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.34 +.58%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.4 +1.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 -39.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .69 +1.47%
  • NYSE Arms 1.48 +59.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.43 +1.61%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 574.05 -1.34%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.46 +4.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 114.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 56.66 +.03%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 156.76 +1.22%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 183.37 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 15.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.50 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.75 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.86 -.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 80.5 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 162.10 USD/Metric Tonne 32.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 71.3 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 205.50 +6.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.6 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.96 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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