Friday, December 11, 2020

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Virus Shutdown Fears, Diminished Stimulus Hopes, Oil Decline, Financial/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.8 +5.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,169.0 -137.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.43 -.44%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 +.20%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.4 +.81%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 146.0 +56.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .98 +40.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.57 +68.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.60 +1.44%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 592.85 -.08%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.80 +7.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 119.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.57 +.89%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 165.69 +1.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 181.99 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.5 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 -2.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.0 -2.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.37 -.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
  • Yield Curve 77.25 -.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 157.82 USD/Metric Tonne +.67%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 78.20 +9.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 141.2 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 66.70 +5.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.87 -3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -122 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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