Wednesday, December 30, 2020

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Year-End Window Dressing, Short-Covering, Oil Gain, Commodity/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.0 -.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,455.0 +57.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.22 -.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 +1.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.8 -1.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 +31.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .75 -2.6%
  • NYSE Arms .82 -25.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.15 -1.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 560.11 +.11%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.83 +1.16%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 -1.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 152.49 -1.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 184.27 +.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +9.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.25 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.98 +.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 80.75 -1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 157.20 USD/Metric Tonne +2.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.80 +4.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 190.50 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.4 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.96 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +31 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +43 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -67 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

No comments: