Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Tax Hike Worries, US Dollar Strength, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.4 +1.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,077.0 -16.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.57 -.19%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.61 +.58%.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.0 +.8%

• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0  -9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .86 +3.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.31 +79.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.84 -.87%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 396.07 +.42%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.90 -.11%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.16 +1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 153.41 +.63%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.41 +.21%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 7.75 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.0 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.08 -.52%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 114.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 130.70 USD/Metric Tonne -2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.6 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.9 +6.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.9 -3.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +2.0 basis points
• 98.3% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.3% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 289 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +42/100K people
• 62% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +8.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -290 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.3% 2) Steel -3.2% 3) Social Media -2.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FOUR, OCDX, DOCN, OPCH, OLO, SLQT, SOAC, APR, IMPL, PATH, AGFY, SMAR, REVG, ALEC and INMB
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IGT 2) ALB 3) PII 4) EEM 5) BBIG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PATH 2) VRT 3) PHM 4) SHW 5) PYPL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value unch.

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +2.0% 2) Restaurants +1.1% 3) Foods +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SPB, BBIG, DRNA, CXM, RKLB, RNA, GPN, VLTA, ICPT, TMX, GIS, KHC, HRMY, TRUP, CTXS, RRC, ORGO, AMEH, FIX, MVST, SPRT, HLMN, DVAX, BCEI, JOAN, PFN and ALIT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KDMN 2) FSLR 3) LQD 4) COUP 5) PVH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ICUI 2) GSAT 3) BBIG 4) KDMN 5) SBOW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 32.3% of Issues Advancing, 63.8% Declining
• 58 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 67.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,058.0 -35.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,961 -.44%
  
• Vix 19.0 +4.7%
• Total Put/Call .86 +3.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.5 +105.4%

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Oil Decline, US Dollar Strength, Commodity/Industrial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.4 +5.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,163.0 +60.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.84 +.18%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.55 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.6 +4.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0  +6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -2.3%

• NYSE Arms .59 -53.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.13 +.96%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 396.0 +.19%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.95 +1.23%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.33 -.40%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 152.0 +1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.30 -.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 unch.

• TED Spread 8.0 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.5 -1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.42 -.32%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 114.0 +6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 136.35 USD/Metric Tonne -.17%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -59.4 -5.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.9 +5.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.5 -1.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +2.0 basis points
• 98.3% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.3% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 289 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -66/100K people
• 54% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -13.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +14 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -18 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 33.3% of Issues Advancing, 63.3% Declining
• 93 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 69.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,127.0 +25.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,035 +.74%
  
• Vix 17.8 +8.6%
• Total Put/Call .86 -1.2%
• TRIN/Arms .56 -55.9%