Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,411.45 -5.4%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 34,265.50 -5.0%

• NASDAQ 13,768.92 -6.9%

• Russell 2000 2,004.42 -7.4%

• S&P 500 High Beta 72.77 -7.9%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 231.31 -11.0%

• Wilshire 5000 44,592.66 -5.87%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,721.18 -6.3%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,598.12 -4.7%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 792.13 -1.3%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,355.61 -2.7%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,810.53 -8.2%

• Transports 15,257.0 -4.6%

• Utilities 944.28 -1.6%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 82.76 -3.9%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 49.01 -2.2%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,467.24 -.84%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 931.58 +.37%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 475,034 -1.8%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -938 -866

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.3 -4.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 360,505 +8.3%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,966,615 +4.2%

• Total Put/Call 1.22 +11.0%

• OEX Put/Call 2.16 -4.5%

• ISE Sentiment 88.0 -9.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.47 +42.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,875.0 -551.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.96 -9.5%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 27.6 +35.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.0 +33.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.5 +4.7%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.57 -3.8%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,515.70 -4.3%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.617 Trillion -1.2%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +7.369 Million

• AAII % Bulls 21.0 -15.7%

• AAII % Bears 46.7 +21.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 250.0 +2.9%

• Crude Oil 85.06 +3.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 244.36 +2.77%

• Natural Gas 3.97 -6.4%

• Heating Oil 269.05 +3.2% 
• Newcastle Coal 215.0 (1,000/metric ton) +13.3%
  

• Gold 1,832.21 +.79%
• Silver 24.35 +5.9%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 531.92 +2.9%

• Copper 451.75 +.16%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 471.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.29%

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.10 USD/Metric Tonne +10.8%

• Lumber 1,143.70 -13.9%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,384.17 +2.6%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 675.0 USD/Short Ton -.74%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +5.1% -1.7 percentage points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.5% -.2 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 4.9 +8.7%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 61.7 -58.1%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 224.23 +.24%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.4 +.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.4 +4.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.8 +12.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 94.4%(unch.) chance of no change, 5.6%(unch.) chance of rate hike on 1/26

• US Dollar Index 95.60 +.77%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,743.87 +.07%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 38,109 -10.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.74 -1.1%
  

• Yield Curve 75.75 -5.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.76% -1.0 basis point
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.830 Trillion +.9%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 12.25 +3.8%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 105.90 +1.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.74 +.47%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 220.12 -1.4%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.0 +3.0%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.80 -.3%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 208.07 +17.3%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.03 -.06%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35% -12.0 basis points

• TED Spread 9.25 -2.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 -2.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 57.78 +7.7%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 347.0 +2.6%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 63.73 +6.2%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 213.17 -.3%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 87.0 +2.5 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 73.0 +.75 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 13.1 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,043.50 -.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 231,000 +9.5%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% +.1 percentage point
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 27.9 +19.5% 

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.56% +11.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 593,700 +2.3%

• Langer Consumer Comfort 38.9 -3.0 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +14.8% +.4 percentage point
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -28.3% -.4 percentage point

• Nationwide Gas $3.33/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,474 -16.4%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,489.9 n/a

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 182.08 +4.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 259,970 +12.7%
• TSA Total Travelers 1-Year Ago Same Weekday 1,650,795 n/a
• US Covid-19:  1,573 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 92% of peak on 1/14/22  -89/100K people from prior week
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -2.8% from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -4.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -7.9%
  

Leading Sectors

• Video Gaming +.9%

• Gold & Silver +.6%
  

• Utilities -.9%

• Energy -1.0%

• Foods -1.8%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Retail -8.7%
  

• Banks -9.5%

• Disk Drives -10.4%

• Homebuilding -11.3%

• Alt Energy -12.3%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (0)

• None of note
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (78)

• SNDX, CZR, RC, EXPI, PFLT, FND, ETW, KYMR, DIN, GFS, CNMD, MTB, W, PWP, ERAS, CSX, PATK, NVTA, ADSK, USAC, CXM, VNOM, BC, DKNG, AMR, DKNG, AMZN, DCP, GTLB, SONO, CXM, ARRY, DVN, QTRX, TASK, PRCH, RILY, NTRS, CCCC, ESTE, TGI, HOOD, CENX, YMAB, RAD, STLD, NUE, WGO, PLTR, OSTK, DIS, HEAR, VIAC, CCXI, ECL, SIVB, X, CLF, ROKU, HZO, MTTR, HBAN, ISRG, HTZ, FUBO, SI, TTD, AXSM, LAZR, UPST, CVNA, COIN, MSTR, SPWR and NFLX
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.3 +6.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,913.0 -225.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.75 -.10%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 +.31%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.7 +1.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 84.0  -6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.21 +24.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.48 +22.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.63 +.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 391.03 +2.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.70 +2.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.78 +1.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 212.70 +.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.03 +.27%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.25 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 9.25 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 -2.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.75 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 +.75 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.40 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .17% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 75.75 -4.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.05 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.40 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.4 -.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.8 +2.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -10.0 basis points
  
• 6.6%(+3.6 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 3.4%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,573 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 92%(-3.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -58/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -2.8%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -62 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -103 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my emerging market shorts and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +44.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 43.7% of Issues Advancing, 52.2% Declining
• 5 New 52-Week Highs, 361 New Lows
• 44.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,004.0 -134.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,702 -.46%
  
• Vix 26.0 +1.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.12 +15.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.4 +15.7%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.0 +1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 47.0 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.42 -.12%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,977.0 -160.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.8 +3.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.76%.

• S&P 500 futures -.8%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.3%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ALLY)/1.97
• (HBAN)/.35
• (INFO)/.84
• (SLB)/.39
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Dec. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.1% gain in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK retail sales report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Dollar Strength, Consumer Discretionary/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.0 -7.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,401.0 +186.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.0 -.37%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.5 -3.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 37.1 -8.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0  +10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -7.8%

• NYSE Arms .80 -27.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.42 +1.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 373.09 +.17%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.03 +.43%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.34 +.13%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 209.65 -1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.95 +1.61%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 9.5 +1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 n/a
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.25 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.52 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .17% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 80.5 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.75 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.60 -1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.9 -.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.7 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 unch.
  
• 3.0%(unch.) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 1.4%(-.2 percentage point) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,631 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 95%(+2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak +26/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -2.8%(-.8 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/7/21 - 1/13/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +17 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +70 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -60 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my transport/medical/tech sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Paper -1.2% 2) Homebuilding -.7% 3) Gold & Silver -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RF, AMH, MTB, UNFI, HASI, VFC, TASK and PTON
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) APRN 2) COTY 3) BKR 4) IFF 5) PPL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PTON 2) RF 3) IP 4) TASK 5) AAL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume