Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 33.0% of Issues Advancing, 63.7% Declining
• 31 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
• 46.8%(-2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 63.0 -3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 49.6 +1.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,607.2 -.27%
  
• Vix 19.6 -1.5%
• Total Put/Call .89 -6.3%
• TRIN/Arms .50 -71.3% 

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.25 +2.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 78.25 +7.5 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  48.2 -1.2%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.52 +3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.6 +.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.1%.

• S&P 500 futures -.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.37%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CBRL)/1,22
• (GCO)/1.57
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Nov. is 200K versus 261K the prior week.
• The Unemployment Rate for Nov. is estimated at 3.7% versus 3.7% in Oct.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Oct.
• Labor Force Participation for Nov. is estimated to rise to 62.3% versus 62.2% in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report and the (NAT) conference call could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.3 -1.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.36%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.5 -.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.2 -.94%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 +.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 40.6 -3.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 129.0 +32.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 -19.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.46 +149.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.6 -.05%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 368.08 -2.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 378.0 +3.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.90 -5.6% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 463.05 +2.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 189.0 basis points -6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.2 -5.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 228.27 +.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.0 +.86%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.25 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 43.75 basis points +3.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.25 basis points +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  136.0 -10.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 128.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.24 +3.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.86 +.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -5.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -72.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.15 USD/Metric Tonne +.25%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 137.0 euros/megawatt-hour -6.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.5 +.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.4 -5.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.8 -3.9 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.62 -.08:  Growth Rate +11.0% unch., P/E 17.8 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.54 -3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.84% -142.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.87% -15.0 basis points: CPI YoY +7.49% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 50.1%(+7.7 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 46.5%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -80.5%(+1.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -211 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.5% 2) Banks -1.6% 3) Retail -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• APP, SAIA, RCUS, OWL, RVLV, NXST, VSCO, SI, MU, CFLT, IGMS, ALLY, LMND, FDMT, ADM, PI, LZB, FNA, BG, BJ, BGS, COST, CEIX, ZUMZ, MNTK, BX, FLNC, ESTC, CAL, DG, BIG, RXDX, DAR, STEM, CRM, NTLA, OGS, SHLS, DBI and GIII
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HAS 2) JETS 3) ULTA 4) TOL 5) CRM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LE 2) SQZ 3) OGS 4) NTLA 5) CRM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.5% 2) Cybersecurity +2.1% 3) Electric Vehicles +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OKTA, SPLK, FIVE, BTAI, OFIX, NTNX, ASPN, BOX, SNOW, ATEC, COCO, ACRS and ATEC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IP 2) CNK 3) SPGI 4) FIVE 5) DXC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OKTA 2) REX 3) SPLK 4) FIVE 5) BIGC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 57.7% of Issues Advancing, 37.9% Declining
• 92 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 48.4%(+1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 48.2 -.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,627.7 -.03%
  
• Vix 20.4 -1.0%
• Total Put/Call .82 -32.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.38 +132.9%