Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Putin Says Russia May Add Nuclear First Strike to Strategy.
• On Eve of Lula’s Certification, Bolsonaro Says Army is Last Barrier to Socialism.
• Backers of Ousted Peru President Block Roads as Protests Spread.  
• Rebel Farmers Are Pushing Back on Climate Action. This is Why.
  
• World Bank, IMF Heads Allowed to Skip Quarantine for China Meetings.
• Workers Have High Hopes for Pay Hikes Next Year. Perhaps Too High.
• Market Wakes Up to Fact That Fed Pivot Could Signal Recession.  
• US Vegetable Prices Soar Nearly 40% as Water Cuts Crush Supply.
• Treasury Rally Stalls After Wholesale Prices Show Resilience.
  
• Florida’s Hurricane-Hit Orange Crop Means Juice Shortage to Worsen.
  
• US Household Net Worth Falls for Third-Straight Quarter on Stock Retreat.  
• Microsoft's Fight for Activision Is a Bet on the Future of Gaming.  
• Why US Power Stations Are Vulnerable Targets for Attacks.  
• NYC Again Urges Masks in Indoor, Crowded Outdoor Settings.
• Retail Traders Lose $350 Billion in Brutal Year for Taking Risks.   
• Hedge Funds Lure Oil Traders With Seven-Figure Signing Bonuses.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Biden Bails Out the Teamsters. The $36 billion he delivered to the union’s pensions this week was sold as Covid ‘relief.’ 
• Sinema Leaves Democrats to Become Independent.
• U.S. Reluctantly Embraces New Era of Hostage Diplomacy.
• You Bought a Hot Fund. Now It’s on Ice.
• Juul to Pay $1.7 Billion in Legal Settlement.
• China’s Xi Pledges Gulf Energy Deals.
• U.K. Braces for Biggest Strikes in Years.

Fox News: 

• Putin vows to launch ‘hundreds’ of warheads if key line crossed.
• Detransitioning woman left 'heartbroken' after having irreversible surgery as teen.

CNBC:

• Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in November, more than expected, despite hopes that inflation is cooling.
• Bahamas attorneys file emergency motion in FTX case for access to client information.
• Supreme Court takes Coinbase appeal over crypto lawsuits.
• Stellantis to indefinitely idle Jeep plant, lay off workers to cut costs for EVs.
• Crypto.com CEO has history of red flags including bankruptcy and quick exits.

Zero Hedge:

• Defense Aid To Ukraine Tops $20 Billion As New $275M Package Announced.
• 5 Principles Of Stagflation.
• THE TWITTER FILES: The Removal Of Donald Trump, Part 1.
• 3.9 Trillion Reasons Why The Fed Will Raise Its Inflation Target.
• "It's Time": Miami Mayor Asks Musk To Move Twitter HQ To Miami.
• Senators Press HHS As Whistleblower Alleges Unaccompanied Children Being Transferred To Criminals.
• Maxine Waters Confirms Bankman-Fried Will Testify Virtually Next Week... Alongside Current FTX CEO.
• Nantucket Approves Topless Beaches.
• Too much cash or to crash?
• Marijuana Industry's Buzz Wears Off As Pandemic Party Over.
• Roughly 60% Of Students Fear Expressing Their Views In Higher Education; New Poll Finds.
• Top EU Parliament Officials Arrested In Huge Qatar-Linked Corruption Probe.
• Musk Confirms Political Candidates Were Shadow Banned By Twitter’s Censors.
• Stocks fall in wake of hotter-than-expected PPI ahead of key risk week - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• BlackRock: Prepare For Recession "Unlike Any Other"... And What Worked Before "Won't Work Now".
• Stocks, Bonds, & Black Gold Battered In Ugly Week Ahead Of Fed.

MarketWatch.com:            

• Opinion: Household wealth down by $13.5 trillion in 2022, second-worst destruction on record.
• These stock market sectors should be strong if the bulls really are in control — but they’re not.  
• Carvana stock set for another decline as ‘confidence is low’ and bankruptcy feared.
  
• Financial markets are flashing a warning that a recession is imminent: here’s what it means for stocks.
  
• The Block CEO showed ‘serious lack of judgment’ in taking loans from FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried and not disclosing them.

NewsMax:   

• Rep. Clyde to Newsmax: Government Involvement in Big Tech 'Serious'.
• Rep. Pat Fallon: Sinema Party Switch Bad News for Dems.
• Twitter Releasing 3-Day Deep Dive on the Banning of Donald Trump.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• After Destroying Millions of Lives, Fauci Cries About ‘Lowlife’ Trolls Harassing His Wife and Children Over Covid Policies (VIDEO).
• MUST READ – Our Most Important Report of the Midterm: Election Fraud, It’s Voter Roll Manipulation – Not Ballot Gathering!
• BREAKING: Twitter Files Part 3 Released: How Trump Was Removed From Twitter.
• Marine Imprisoned in Russia Reveals How He Feels About Biden Freeing Brittney Griner but Not Him.
• AZGOP Passes UNANIMOUS Resolution Calling For the Resignation Of Ronna Romney McDaniel.
• “Ronnie, You Left the World Far Too Early” – Tina Turner’s Son Dies Suddenly and Unexpectedly.
• FBI Reportedly Investigating at Least Five Electricity Substation Attacks in Washington and Oregon Similar in North Carolina.
• More Evidence that Twitter Was Run by the Deep State – Former CIA and FBI Employee Identified at the Top of the Censorship Activities.
• Laura Loomer Was Right – Twitter’s Jack Dorsey Lied About Shadow Banning Conservatives.
• Republican Wins IA House Election By 11 VOTES After Recount- Machines Declared Democrat Winner, Hand Count Revealed Republican Won.
• RINO Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer Who Ran Anti-Lake PAC Celebrates Katie Hobbs’ Election Victory On LinkedIn – Tells Kari Lake To “Go Away”. 
• WAKE UP AMERICA – You’ve Got a Special Counsel Connected to Soros Using Soros-Funded SOSs to Take Down President Trump.
  

The Epoch Times:

• At All Costs: A CCP Leader’s War Against Faith.

Twitter:

• @247ChinaNews - Incredible China debt! China's debt as a percentage of its economy hit a fresh high at the end of June, Credit to the nonfinancial sector came to $51.87 trillion, or 295% of gross domestic product, to mark the highest debt-to-GDP ratio.
• @JordanSchachtel - I've seen enough. Long story short, Twitter was a fed-run operation. Feds were ultimately running the show, and making a mockery of our constitutional rights.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 903,327 Reports(+2,295 from prior week) Through November 25th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 3,958.5 -2.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 33,686.1 -2.0%

• NASDAQ 11,083.0 -3.1%

• Russell 2000 1,803.96 -4.2%

• S&P 500 High Beta 65.8 -3.10%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 150.09 -8.9%

• Wilshire 5000 39,713.30 -2.8%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,265.89 -2.57%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,514.05 -2.6%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 792.58 -1.29%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,007.86 -1.99%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,732.24 -1.97%

• Transports 13,797.9 -5.1%

• Utilities 975.20 +.38%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.72 -.45%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.18 -.94%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,446.25 -.31%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 915.79 +.15%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 449,835 -.82%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -222 -379
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -33.9 +4.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 239,739 -5.0%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,412,121 +.47%

• Total Put/Call 1.16 +17.9%

• OEX Put/Call 1.02 -2.6%

• ISE Sentiment 103.0 -42.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .74 -20.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 48.0 -3.4%
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 2.08 -12.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 22.7 +17.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .60% -36.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.1 +7.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.4 -5.2%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.2 -1.97%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,413.2 -2.2%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  55.7 -8.7
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.718 Trillion +1.0%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$12.233 Million

• AAII % Bulls 24.7 +.8%

• AAII % Bears 41.8 +3.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 266.40 -3.7%

• Crude Oil 70.60 -11.4%

• Reformulated Gasoline 204.18 -10.8%

• Natural Gas 6.11 -.53%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 139.11 euros/megawatt-hour -.56%
  

• Heating Oil 278.80 -11.4% 
• Newcastle Coal 372.75 (1,000/metric ton) -3.3%
  

• Gold 1,798.8 +.11%
• Silver 23.5 +1.7%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 464.35 +.64%

• Copper 386.20 +.64%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 384.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%

• China Iron Ore Spot 112.40 USD/Metric Tonne +3.2%

• Lumber  409.90 +3.1%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,497.62 +.27%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 495.0 USD/Short Ton -1.98%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.37% +53.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -11.2% +1.0 percentage points
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 62.5% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.18 -28.0%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 149.0 +219.0%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.39 +.24:  Growth Rate +11.3% unch., P/E 17.3 -.4

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.0 +6.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 38.4 +10.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.3 -3.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of a +25.0 basis point rate hike, 77.0%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike and 23.0%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of +75.0 basis point hike on 12/14 to 4.50-4.75%
  

• US Dollar Index 104.82 +.3%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,646.50 -.01%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 17,138.4 +.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.8 +1.7%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -75.0 +2.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.56% +1.0 basis point
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.547 Trillion -.01%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.19 -8.6%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 185.65 +6.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 -1.0 basis point
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.55 +1.5%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 74.4 -1.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 240.55 +1.9%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.94 +6.3%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.1 +6.2%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.1 +.15%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.7% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +9.8% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +10.9% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.87% unch.: CPI YoY +7.49% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28% -13.0 basis points

• TED Spread 46.0 +.5 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.5 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.75 +4.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 79.9 +2.84%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 318.0 +6.7% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 443.0 +62.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 98.8 +1.4%
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 461.18 -.4%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 236.66 +2.1%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 +11.0 basis points
  
• Aggregate US CMBS Average OAS 1.26 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.16 -9.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 1.3 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,318.2 +1.9%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 230,000 +.44%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% +10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 49.0 +29.6%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.63% +12.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 204,200 -1.9%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.70% -240.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -8.9% +6.6 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $114.2M -31.5%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.32/gallon -.13/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,385 +4.6%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,410.11 -3.7%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 52.50 -16.0%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 43.26 +81.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 254,165 +23.1%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,199,544 +23.3%
• US Covid-19:  140 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+2.8 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) +49/100K people from prior report
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -77.5%(+3.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -2.6%
  

Worst Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Growth -4.5%
  

Leading Sectors

• Utilities +.4%

• Steel +.3%
• Pharma +.1%
  

• Healthcare Providers -.1%

• Video Gaming -.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Banks -5.2%
  

• Alt Energy -7.44%
  

• Energy -8.2%

• Oil Service -9.8%
  

• Marijuana -17.0%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (3)

• ACLX, DOMO and TH
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (9)

• AB, SNDX, MRTX, LESL, VIST, DVN, GME, CORT and LULU
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Worries, Energy/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.6 +1.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .60%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.3 +4.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.84 -.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 -1.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.0 +1.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.13 +22.8%

• NYSE Arms .83 +2.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.19 -1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 379.27 -1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 443.0 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.22 -3.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 461.18 +3.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.51 -.59%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 236.66 +.45%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.06 -.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 31.5 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 46.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.75 basis points +2.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  148.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 125.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.16 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.83 -.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.26% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 111.15 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 139.1 euros/megawatt-hour +.16%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.0 +1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 38.4 +.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.3 +.2 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.39 +.08:  Growth Rate +11.3% unch, P/E 17.2 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.62 +7.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -74.75 basis points (2s/10s) +7.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.19% -18.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.87% unch.: CPI YoY +7.49% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 47.9%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 43.6%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+2.8 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +49/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -77.5%(+.3 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -36 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -38 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -18 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 42.9% of Issues Advancing, 53.6% Declining
• 24 New 52-Week Highs, 42 New Lows
• 42.7%(+.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 48.2 +3.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,607.2 +.1%
  
• Vix 22.5 +.8%
• Total Put/Call .92 unch.
• TRIN/Arms .65 -19.8%