Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.7% 2) Healthcare Providers -1.0% 3) Restaurants -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ABCL, FSK, BOKF, WTFC, PSFE, IBKR, SMR, TSLA, RF, CWH, BROS, MTB, DKNG, AFRM, TNDM, WBS, JACK, GME, HQY, LPLA, DKS, CFR, BAM, DAL, AAL, TRMB, COIN, UAL, TPVG, COCO, SI and PCRX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CDNS 2) ERX 3) AMRS 4) AYX 5) ANET
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) QTNT 2) VNDA 3) SI 4) JBLU 5) TSLA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.5% 2) Gold & Silver +2.0% 3) Energy +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FLNC, SDGR, VTYX, MRNA, ACMR, ACLX, PINS, NFE, AMBA, DOCU, KROS, MRVI, PLAB and BOX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CTLP 2) ARKG 3) RITM 4) IGT 5) UAL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OPGN 2) NCPL 3) VTYX 4) ACMR 5) NFE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +22.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 80.4% of Issues Advancing, 17.3% Declining
• 66 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 47.3%(+8.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.0 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 48.3 +3.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,773.8 +1.22%
  
• Vix 22.7 -9.2%
• Total Put/Call .84 -17.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.60 +220.0% 

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 unch. 

• China Sovereign CDS 74.0 -1.25 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.54%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.68 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  47.3 +.51%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.76 -6.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.9 -.31%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.36%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures unch.  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (PLAB)/.48
  

After the Close:

• (ABM)/.88
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 90.5 versus 91.3 in Oct.
  

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Oct.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Oct.
• The CPI YoY for Nov. is estimated to rise +7.3% versus a +7.7% gain in Oct.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings for Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German CPI report, 30Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, (EVBG) investor day, (LLY) 2023 guidance call, (TEX) investor day, (QDEL) investor day and the (YUM) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Buyout Speculation, Short-Covering, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.8 +8.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .87%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.9 -2.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.87 +.72%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.4 +1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.7 +3.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +9.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -15.4%

• NYSE Arms .96 +10.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.05 -1.99%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 371.08 -1.17%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 431.0 -12.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.61 -.63% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 456.57 -1.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 189.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.28 -.21%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 236.07 -.25%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.29 +.85%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.0 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 47.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  150.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 125.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.16 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.62 -.37%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.25% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.55 USD/Metric Tonne -.77%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 134.7 euros/megawatt-hour -3.18%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.0 -3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.4 +2.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.4 -7.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.20 -.19:  Growth Rate +11.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.2 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.72 -13.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -79.75 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.19% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.87% unch.: CPI YoY +7.49% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 51.6%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 42.7%(+6.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -77.4%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +70 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -16 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity/medical/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -2.4% 2) Electric Vehicles -1.6% 3) Social Media -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ARQT, PLMR, OSTK, QFIN, IMO, ABCM, BIDU, BZ, LEGN, NVRO, LEG, TSLA, APAM, CRL, SWAV, TSVT, RH, DOMO, FATE, BILI, KURA and ACET
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWJ 2) JNK 3) IEF 4) ALLY 5) HZNP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CORZ 2) KURA 3) CLVS 4) ACET 5) LEG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume