Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Digital Health -1.7% 2) Insurance -1.4% 3) REITs -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IMCR, ENPH, SFL, MEDP, AMLX, MRC, CXW, TGH, TRTN, OM, CTKB and DAVA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TELL 2) FITB 3) COTY 4) SABR 5) UUP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TOPS 2) TELL 3) OM 4) SQNS 5) ANGI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• Semis +1.4% 2) Steel +1.1% 3) Shipping +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SI, EMBC, WCC, IPGP, BTU, GFS, UPST, HTGC, TOST, NET, FSLY, AI, SITE and HWM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ANET 2) NTNX 3) SRPT 4) AGEN 5) CHX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SKYT 2) BOXL 3) WCC 4) LSCC 5) INMD
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Potential Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (ADI)/2.60
• (GOLD)/.12
• (BIIB)/3.48
• (CHH)/1.06
• (GNRC)/1.75
• (KHC)/.78
• (DNUT)/.10
• (MLM)/3.04
• (OC)/2.35
• (RBLX)/-.54
• (R)/3.49
• (SAH)/2.20
• (TTD)/.36
• (WAT)/3.74
  

After the Close:

• (ALB)/8.37
• (AMED)/.98
• (AIG)/1.28
• (SAM)/.65
• (CF)/4.20
• (CSCO)/.86
• (CYH)/.32
• (FSLY)/-.13
• (HST)/.42
• (MRO)/.85
• (PEGA)/.15
• (RNG)/.59
• (ROKU)/-1.72
• (RGLD)/.78
• (SHOP)/-.02
• (SUM)/.30
• (SPWR)/.14
• (SNPS)/2.49
• (TRUP)/-.10
• (TWLO)/-.08
• (VECO)/.32
• (WH)/.62
• (ZG)/.06
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to -18.0 versus -32.9 in Jan.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a -1.1% decline in Dec.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a -.7% decline in Dec.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Jan. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a -.7% gain in Dec.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.7% decline in Dec.
• Capacity Utilization for Jan. is estimated to rise to 79.1% versus 78.8% in Dec.
• Manufacturing Production for Jan. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a -1.3% decline in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 37.0 versus 35.0 in Jan.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Total Net TIC Flows for Dec. is estimated to fall to $165.0B versus $213.1B in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK CPI report, Eurozone Industrial Production report, 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Baird Vehicle Tech/Mobility Conference, Wolf Auto/Auto Tech/Mobility conference, (SMG) fireside chat with Wells Fargo and the (SEE) road show could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 35.3% of Issues Advancing, 61.8% Declining
• 70 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 58.5%(-2.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 -2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.6 +2.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,928.1 +.3%
  
• Vix 19.2 -5.6%
• Total Put/Call 1.03 +12.0%
• TRIN/Arms .76 -7.3%
  

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.0 -.75 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 60.5 +2.0 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 121.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.97 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  61.4 +.02%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 -5.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.3 +.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%.

• S&P 500 futures -.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by tech and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Dollar Weakness, Stable Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Gaining
  

• Volume:  Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.6 +.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.03%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.5 +1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.5 +1.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 +1.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.7 -3.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -11.7%

• NYSE Arms .94 +17.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.1 -.55%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.82 -.65%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 319.0 +6.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.6 -.75% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 386.6 +4.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 180.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 +2.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 232.17 -1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.7 +.2%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  143.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 101.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .66 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 +.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.76% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.7 euros/megawatt-hour -4.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.5 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 87.3 -5.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.0 +.5 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 223.89 -.06:  Growth Rate +.3% unch., P/E 18.4 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.91% -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .36 -7.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -82.5 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.16% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.48% +4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 73.1%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 45.2%(-3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -85.0%(-1.8 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +158 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +87 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/industrial/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long