Wednesday, February 15, 2023

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:29 PM

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -3.0% 2) Energy -1.8% 3) Oil Service -1.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • KT, MEDP, SCI, MCY, TSM, UDMY, AU, LAD, AKAM, DVN and CRDO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EWC 2) SABR 3) AKAM 4) NSC 5) DVN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CRDO 2) DVN 3) KRNT 4) GLDO 5) AEO
Charts:
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Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:23 PM

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Alt Energy +3.9% 2) Internet +2.1% 3) Retail +2.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • UPST, TTD, SI, RBLX, NRDS, HLF, ADPT, EHAB, QS, ABNB, COIN, MGNI, ROKU, DOCS, SKYT, RNG, DASH, PUBM, DOMO, CAL, PARA, GNRC, BAND, LTHM, LYFT, AI, ADI, MLM, BLNK, VMC, NARI, MPW, ZI, HCSG, R, UPWK, PEGA, CRK, FSLY, XPOF, DOCN, TWLO, BALY, SKY, CECO, BOWL, TOST and Z
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HLF 2) AKAM 3) TTD 4) TRIP 5) RNG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TTD 2) ABNB 3) SI 4) RBLX 5) CAL
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Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Potential Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 2:13 PM

Earnings of Note 
 Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 
  • (ARCH)/11.33
  • (AAWW)/5.20
  • (BLMN)/.64
  • (CEG)/.27
  • (CROX)/2.23
  • (DDOG)/.19
  • (HAS)/1.29
  • (H)/.33
  • (KBR)/.58
  • (LH)/4.14
  • (POOL)/1.97
  • (RS)/4.47
  • (SAGE)/-2.36
  • (SHAK)/-.11
  • (TOST)/-.07
  • (VC)/1.49
  • (VMC)/1.26
  • (WE)/-.46
  • (ZBRA)/4.59
After the Close:
  • (AEM)/.41
  • (AMN)/2.19
  • (AMAT)/1.92
  • (CHUY)/.20
  • (CGNX)/.31
  • (COHU)/.60
  • (ED)/.80
  • (DASH)/.01
  • (DKNG)/-.58
  • (DBX)/.39
  • (LOPE)/2.24
  • (HUBS)/.82
  • (RMAX)/.45
  • (RDFN)/-1.09
  • (TXRH)/1.03
  • (AUY)/.06

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST
  • The PPI Final Demand MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.5% decline in Dec.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in Dec.
  • PPI Final Demand YoY for Jan. is estimated to rise +5.4% versus a +6.2% gain in Dec.
  • Housing Starts for Jan. is estimated to fall to 1353K versus 1382K in Dec.
  • Building Permits for Jan. is estimated to rise to 1350K versus 1330K in Dec.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 200K versus 196K the prior week. 
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1689K versus 1688K prior.
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to -7.5 versus -8.9 in Jan.
  • The NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to -17.0 versus -21.4 in Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, Australia Unemployment report, Keefe Bruyette Woods Financial Services conference, weekly EIA nat gas inventory report and the (SNAP) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
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Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 1:22 PM

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -3.1% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
  • 45.1% of Issues Advancing, 51.2% Declining
  • 53 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
  • 60.2%(+.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 -2.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.4 +.9%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,043.4 +.33%
  • Vix 18.5 -2.4%
  • Total Put/Call .83 -13.5%
  • TRIN/Arms .77 -23.8%
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Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:22 PM
Twitter: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.0 +2.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 60.25 +1.75 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 124.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 -.12%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  62.6 -.43%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .36 - basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +1.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.21%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.45%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.56%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by tech and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
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Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:02 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.9 -7.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.48%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 62.6 +2.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.4 +.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -.5%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.7 -3.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -18.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 +12.0%
  • NYSE Arms .90 +9.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.1 +.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 356.7 -1.7%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 325.0 +6.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.6 -1.1% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 381.2 -1.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 179.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.5 -.41%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 228.20 -1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.6 -.23%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 33.75 basis points +4.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 12.0 basis points -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.5 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  147.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 102.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .67 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.9 +.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.73% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 123.10 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 52.4 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.6 +.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 86.1 -1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.1 -.9 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 223.95 +.06:  Growth Rate +.1% -.2 percentage point, P/E 18.3 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.43% +52.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .43 +5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -86.25 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.16% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.24% -24.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 75.3%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 51.7%(+9.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
US Covid-19:
  • 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.4%(+1.6 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +153 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my commodity/industrial/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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