Tuesday, May 02, 2023

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 +2.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 75.25 +3.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.61%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 52.5 -.01%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.07 +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.4 -.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.45%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Regional Bank Contagion Worries, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.0 +11.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.73%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.4 -7.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 157.1 -.48%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.0 +.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.0 +11.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 +8.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .97 +1.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.45 +51.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.6 +3.0%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 400.6 +6.1%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 391.0 -8.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.8 +4.4% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 368.74 +2.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 192.0 basis points +6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.8 +1.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 243.3 +3.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.6 -.19%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.5 basis points +2.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 19.0 basis points -8.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 +4.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 168.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 699.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 94.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.5 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.14% +13.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.75%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.5 euros/megawatt-hour -3.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.5 -6.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.5 +2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.7 +2.4 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.38 -.18:  Growth Rate +2.2% unch., P/E 18.0 -.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.05 -12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.60 -10.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -54.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.84% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.66% unch.: CPI YoY +5.19% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 81.0%(+14.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 53.3%(-8.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -330 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -107 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +143 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -2.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Regional Banks -6.4% 2) Oil Service -5.0% 3) Steel -3.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TRMD, CVI, BMO, VNOM, CM, LNG, LJJ, SEDG, GPN, PBA, PAA, E, SHEL, LGIH, COCO, AL, COF, PAGP, NCR, FANG, HOLX, CELH, COUR, AYX NWL, KDNY, CCRN, SGRY, RELX, ITW, SCI, TASK, TS, OZK, DX, FHB,NYCB, QNST, FMC, MED, PGR, PJT, HRZN, DV, CFG, BSM, CVBF, PUBM, ATGE, INCY, STNG, TPVG, EWBC, WSBC, NRDS, DD, BOH, INMD, BP, NSSC, PPBI, TWO, DUOL, RNA, AXNA, CMA, ZBRA, SEE, ZION, TOP, SYM, LDS, WAL, TOP, PINC, IEP and TVTX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IVZ 2) IEP 3) IOT 4) OZK 5) ZION
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) IEP 2) CHGG 3) PACW 4) ANET 5) MCB
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -1.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Gold & Silver +2.1% 2) Restaurants -.2% 3) Pharma -.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • WWD, AMRC, UBER, TAP, RMBS, SFM, SIBN, PLRX, ZI, FLS, ZBH, STAG and TEX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VICI 2) MSGS 3) IEP 4) CHGG 5) SBLK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) HOUR 2) AMRC 3) SFM 4) SIBN 5) TAP

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 
  • (ALGT)/2.30
  • (GOLD)/.12
  • (EAT)/1.19
  • (BG)/3.24
  • (CDW)/2.03
  • (CVS)/2.09
  • (EMR)/.98
  • (EL)/.51
  • (EXC)/.66
  • (FDP)/.60
  • (GRMN)/1.01
  • (GNRC)/.50
  • (HBI)/-.07
  • (KHC)/.60
  • (LPX)/.05
  • (MUR)/.98
  • (PSX)/3.56
  • (SMG)/3.47
  • (SPWR)/.00 
  • (UTHR)/4.71
  • (WING)/.45
  • (WWE)/.41
  • (YUM)/1.13
After the Close: 
  • (ALB)/7.05
  • (ALL)/-1.01
  • (APA)/.97
  • (CTSH)/1.05
  • (DEN)/1.38
  • (ETSY)/.90
  • (FSLY)/-.10
  • (HST)/.48
  • (IR)/.52
  • (KTOS)/.04
  • (KLIC)/.26
  • (LMND)/-1.08
  • (MRO)/.58
  • (MELI)/3.31
  • (MET)/1.86
  • (MOS)/1.25
  • (MYGN)/-.19
  • (NE)/.11
  • (PSA)/3.99
  • (QCOM)/2.16
  • (RYN)/.10
  • (STAA)/.09
  • (RGR)/.97
  • (SUM)/-.36
  • (SYNA)/1.86
  • (TRIP)/.06
  • (OLED)/.82
  • (VSTO)/.90
  • (WERN)/.71
  • (WMB)/.49
  • (YELL)/-.88
  • (ZG)/.10

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST:
  • The ADP Employment Change for April is estimated to rise to 148K versus 145K in March.
10:00 am EST:
  • The ISM Services Index for April is estimated to rise to 51.8 versus 51.2 in March.
  • ISM Services Prices Paid for April.
10:30 am EST:
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -481,570 barrels versus a -5,054,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -936,430 barrels versus a -2,408,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -904,140 barrels versus a -577,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.47% versus a +.3% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds rate +25.0 basis points to 5.0-5.25%.
Upcoming Splits
  • (SMH) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The FOMC Press Conference, China Services PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (PGR) investor event could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +23.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.6 -3.4
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 11.9% of Issues Advancing, 86.2% Declining
  • 30 New 52-Week Highs, 126 New Lows
  • 37.4%(-10.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 43.0 -14
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.1 -7.6%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,094.2 +.8%
  • 1-Day Vix 16.5 +64.3%
  • Vix 19.0 +18.2% 
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 +5.2%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.43 +47.9%