Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Investors Zero In on China Local Debt Blowup as Top Risk in Asia.
• Korea Inflation Slows in May, Giving Central Bank Scope to Pause.
• Asia Stocks to Track US Rally Ahead of Jobs Data: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Heads for Weekly Decline Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting on Supply.
• Kevin McCarthy’s Debt-Limit Win Risks His Job as Speaker.
• Senators Strike Deal for Swift Passage of Bill to Avert US Default.
• Senate to Vote on Stripping Mountain Valley Pipe From Debt Bill.
• Apple Plans Major Store Overhaul From the US to China.
• Investors Are Dumping Value Funds to Shovel Money Into AI Bets.
• NASA, Boeing Delay Crewed Starliner Flight Over Safety Concerns.
• Biden Plans to Tap Mandy Cohen for CDC Director, Replacing Walensky.
• Fed’s Harker Says FOMC Should ‘at Least Skip’ June Rate Hike.
• Hedge Funds at War for Top Traders Dangle $120 Million Payouts.
• Job Cuts From AI Are Just Beginning, the Latest Challenger Report Suggests.
• These Are the Most and Least Expensive Places to Raise Kids.

Zero Hedge:

• Is The Sleeping Conservative Dragon Finally Waking Up?
• Investor Home Purchases Collapse Most On Record.
• Biden Speech Hailing NATO Strength Overshadowed By Serious Fall On Stage.
• US Lacks 'Effective Tool' To Stop China’s Tech Theft: Treasury Official.
• 'What Is A (Fired) Woman?' - Twitter Head Of Trust & Safety Gone After "Mistake" Banning Documentary.
• A Debt Jubilee Of Biblical Proportions Is Coming Soon... What You Need To Know.
• Pentagon Chiefs Cancel "Family Friendly" Drag Show At Air Force Base After Rep. Gaetz Pressure.
• Where are we in this bubble?
• Zelensky Miffed Over NATO Inaction, Demands Membership & Security Guarantees 'Now'.
• The Suffering Is Off The Charts.
• Shellenberger: Why The Media Is Attacking Free Speech.
• San Francisco Mayor Makes U-Turn To Fund Police After Company Exodus Pressures City Finances.
• Doug Casey On The Bankruptcy Of The US Government.
• US stocks gained on debt ceiling optimism and a downward revision to Labor Costs - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Seattle Amazon Employees Protest Returning To The Office Due To "Climate Change".
• Republicans Say DOJ Has Gone 'Totally Rogue' After Lawsuit Against 2024 Senate Contender.
• Bank Bailout Facility Usage Hits New Record High As Money-Market Fund Inflows Soared Again Last Week.
• Stocks higher on debt ceiling optimism and falling Labor Costs ahead of jobs report - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Bonds & Bullion Bid As Fed 'Pause' Narrative Builds; Stocks Soar On Massive Squeeze.

Wall Street Journal:

• Why Your Burger Is Getting Pricier.
• Auto-Safety Regulators Failed to Complete Defect Probes in Timely Manner, Government Audit Finds.
• The Nepo Babies Are Coming to the Office.
• Apple Savings Account Customers Say It’s Hard to Get Their Money Out.
• Banks Raise Roadblocks to Small-Business Loans.
• The Hottest New Home Amenity? ‘It’s Brutal’.
• Business Is Slowing. So Companies Are Juicing Profits.

CNBC.com:

• CrowdStrike CEO calls generative AI an ‘arms race,’ but is ready to fight.
• Why Apple’s VR headset could succeed where every similar product has failed.
• Lululemon shares surge after reporting 24% sales growth, raising full-year guidance
• Here’s what to watch out for in Friday’s jobs report for May.
• MongoDB shares jump more than 20% after database company beats expectations and raises guidance.
• Meta says it will block news on Facebook in California if recently advanced bill becomes law.

MarketWatch:

• WeQuit: WeWork bonds sink after top executives resign from cash-burning company.
• Too much debt coming due and not much cash on hand: These 10 companies face a rough year ahead.
• Broadcom stock shows volatility as analysts question AI’s more than 25% boost to chip revenue.
• Opinion: Bank stocks have dodged a bullet. They may not be so lucky next time.

 Newsmax:

• Rep. Mace: Debt Bill 'Fleeced' Republicans, Americans.
• Rep. Ogles:: 'A Bad Deal for America'.
• Sen. Blackburn: China Eyes 'Global Domination' by 2050.
• Trump: GOP Should’ve Gotten More From Debt Deal.
• Tech CEO: Fears of Advanced AI Warranted.

Fox News:

• DeSantis addresses Biden's fitness for another term after president's hard fall.
• Beloved Disneyland ride finally shuttered ahead of ‘inclusive’ overhaul.
• Irate Dem Sen. Joe Manchin calls 'bulls---' on Republicans over key debt ceiling provision.
• Pitcher booed in first game since sharing video endorsing Target, Bud Light boycotts.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Dr. Peter McCullough: Understand Spike Shedding Before It’s Too Late.
• BREAKING: Joe Biden Takes MASSIVE Fall at Air Force Academy Graduation Ceremony (VIDEO).
• Report: Jamie Foxx Allegedly Paralyzed and Blinded Due to ‘Blood Clot in His Brain’ Following COVID-19 Shot, Veteran Hollywood Journalist Claims (VIDEO).
• NEW: Democrat Katie Hobbs Hangs LGBTQ Flags Above American Flag at Arizona Capitol.
• BREAKING: Maricopa County Supervisor Bill Gates Says He Will NOT Run For Re-Election in 2024 – Will Oversee 2024 Election.
• Hohmann: Globalists Rev Up Plans to Engineer Global Famine: 13 Nations Agree to Convert Over to Less-Productive ‘Green’ Farming Methods.
• Glamour Magazine Features Pregnant Transgender ‘Man’ On Cover For Pride Month.
• JP Morgan Downgrades Target as Retailer Suffers Longest Losing Streak in 23 Years After Trans-Satanist Children’s Clothing Line Fails to Impress.
• BREAKING: Senate Votes to Overturn Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Program – Here Are the Democrats Who Voted with Republicans.
• It Begins: US Embassies Around The World Fly Pride Flag.
• “I’m Ready to Turf You Out!” – More… Steve Bannon Fires Warning Shot at 149 Republicans Who Voted for Uniparty Bill (VIDEO).
• Whistleblower Who Was Set to Reveal “Explosive” Information on the Biden Crime Family Before Disappearing Speaks Out In Interview – Is Hiding Out as Fugitive in Undisclosed Foreign Location.
• Steve Bannon: Jim Jordan and MTG “Should Both Face Primary Challenges from Real MAGA” For Voting with Democrats on Uniparty Spending Bill.
• CNN Writes Glowing Article on Women Marrying Themselves as ‘Symbolic Expression of Self-Love’.

The Epoch Times:

• Pentagon Funding ‘Extremely Concerning’ Hypersonic Weapons Program at China-Linked University: Gallagher
• Chinese Activists Condemn China’s Secret Agents in US.

Twitter: 

• @UltraDane - Croatia's MEP: “Today it would be safer to sign contracts with the Colombian drug cartels than with the World Health Organization.” (video)
• @RealJamesWoods - "Honoring the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence, a group whose sole mission is to sexualize nuns and mock Jesus, reveals the true depth of hatred California’s elected officials have for the millions of Catholics residing in the state.”
• @nickgerli1 - Wall Street Investors have officially abandoned the Housing Market. With Redfin reporting a colossal 49% crash in investor purchases in Q1 2023. This is the biggest annual decline on record. Even bigger than the drop that occurred in 2005 right before the last crash. (graph)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 961,868 Reports(+516 from prior week) Through May 19th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.0 +2.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 65.0 +.5 basis point
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.31%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.4 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.1 +1.8%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.02 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.19%.

• S&P 500 futures +.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Optimism, China Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.8 -11.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.29%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.1 +3.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.7 +.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.8 +.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.3 -8.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 141.0 +39.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -25.0%

• NYSE Arms .82 -25.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.0 -1.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 394.04 -.86%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 376.0 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.9 -3.3% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 310.6 -1.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.0 +.17%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 242.0 -1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.7 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 basis points -2.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 15.5 basis points +8.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 172.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 721.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 91.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.4 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.17%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 23.1 euros/megawatt-hour  -14.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.9 +7.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.8 -9.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.0 +9.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) -2.7% +.9 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.80 +.06:  Growth Rate +2.8% unch., P/E 18.2 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 205.62 +.27: Growth Rate +35.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 34.9 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .02 +7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.71 +14.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -74.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.96% +.6 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 47.6%(-4.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 42.1%(+3.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -1.1% 2) Cyber Security -.4% 3) Retail -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ABBV, SIG, JAMF, DLTR, FIVE, CXM, CXRM, AAP, SDA, XPER, VSCO, PVH, NCNO, AI, OKTA and DG
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GTLB 2) DG 3) JWN 4) IOT 5) OKTA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DG 2) AI 3) OKTA 4) NCNO 5) CRM  
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Disk Drives +5.0% 2) Oil Service +4.2% 3) Gold & Silver +3.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CHWY, BHVN, PSTG, CVNA, VEEV, CRDO, AEHR, AVDX, AYX, IRBT, NTAP, ENVX, UPST, STEP, TASK, MTCH, CELH, NFE, TTEK, CEG, KURA, HRL, NEM, PHR, DKNG, MRVL, ELV, CNOB, SIL, NVDA, AMBA and PD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ETRN 2) CCJ 3) CHWY 4) DG 5) OKTA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CHWY 2) VEEV 3) PSTG 4) CRDO 5) NTAP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for May is estimated to fall to 195K versus 253K in April.
• The Unemployment Rate for May is estimated to rise to 3.5% versus 3.4% in April.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Home Price report and the ASCO annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +7.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.8 -1.3
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 68.6% of Issues Advancing, 28.7% Declining
• 11 New 52-Week Highs, 62 New Lows
• 39.1%(+1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.0 +2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.5 +2.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,366.5 -.12%
• 1-Day Vix 10.5 -30.7%
  
• Vix 16.2 -9.7% 
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -26.9%
• TRIN/Arms .94 -14.6%