Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.6 -1.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .51%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.8 -1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.2 -1.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.9 -2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -28.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.55 +20.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.3 +1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 318.75 +.86%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 346.0 +7.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.3 +1.9% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 262.0 +.61%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.9 -2.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 201.97 +2.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.12%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 169.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 797.0 +25.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 74.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.7 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.45% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.0 euros/megawatt-hour -11.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.4 +3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -578.1 -.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.7 -.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) -6.0%  +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.74 +.03:  Growth Rate +8.2% unch., P/E 19.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.20% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +24.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.61 +.22: Growth Rate +46.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .44 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .17 +2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -78.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.63% -28.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.03% -20.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 54.6%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 52.7%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -99 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +30 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -1.6% 2) Gold & Silver -1.0% 3) Digital Health -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GMED, RA, FIVE, ZIP, EDR, CHWY, WWE, DG and VFS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MSOS 2) UBS 3) DG 4) IOT 5) OKTA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DLTH 2) PSNY 3) DG 4) PLTR 5) SE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Networking +3.2% 2) Disk Drives +2.1% 3) Cyber Security +1.7%%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CIEN, ICCT, CAL, OKTA, GCO, ASO, UGI, TVTX, CRWD, OLMA, VEEV, CRNX, PI, VSCO, WDC, FL, RNG, TDW, ANET, TNET, OLLI, AA, IIPR, ACMR, CRM, CECO, CDLX and AMBA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TIO 2) DG 3) MSOS 4) ACWI 5) CRM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ANET 2) CIEN 3) ASO 4) WDC 5) SHOP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Aug. is estimated at 170K versus 187K in July.
• The Unemployment Rate for Aug. is estimated at 3.5% versus 3.5% in July.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a .4% gain in July.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate for Aug. is estimated at 62.6% versus 62.6% in July.

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for July is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in June. 
• ISM Manufacturing for Aug. is estimated to rise to 47.0 versus 46.4 in July.
• ISM Prices Paid for Aug. is estimated to rise to 44.0 versus 42.6 in July.

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Aug. is estimated to fall to 15.45M versus 15.74M in July.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking and the China Manufacturing PMI report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -17.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.9 -1.7
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 57.4% of Issues Advancing, 39.7% Declining
• 58 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 49.5%(+.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.0 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.8 -1.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,725.4 +.45%
• 1-Day Vix 10.1 -15.8%
  
• Vix 13.7 -1.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .75 -32.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.49 +15.5%
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• US Approves First Arms Sale for Taiwan Under Program for Nations.
• China Moves to Stabilize Finances of Troubled Shadow Bank.
• Australia Sees Power Gaps Over Next Decade as 62% of Coal Operations Shut Down.
• Europe's Biggest Oil Company Quietly Shelves a Radical Plan to Shrink Its Carbon Footprint.
• Australia, EU Restart Trade Talks in Bid to Break FTA Deadlock. 
• Stubborn Inflation in Germany and Spain Keeps ECB on Alert.
• Asian Stocks Set to Follow US Gains on Fed Outlook: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Holds Gain After US Crude Inventories Post Large Decline.
• Fed Quietly Demands Corrective Actions by Regional Banks.
• No Jail, No Bail: Inside the NYC Program Upending Criminal Justice.
• US Officials Weigh Pathway to Let More Firms Tap Federal Home Loan Banks.
• From the Archive: Fear of Rampant Crime Is Derailing NYC's Recovery. 
• US Health Officials Urge Moving Pot to Lower-Risk Category.
• Amazon, Shopify Strike Deal to Open Amazon Logistics to Sellers.
• OpenAI Rival Cohere Taps JPMorgan, Goldman for Financing.
• Nvidia Partner Expects AI Server Sales to Double in 2024.

Zero Hedge:

• "The Lights Are Going Out": Albert Edwards And The "Maddest Chart That Explains So Much".
• Poor Americans Skip Meals, Can't Afford Power Bills, Miss Rent Payments, In Era Of 'Bidenomics'.
• Rise In Crime: Nordstrom Closes Shop In SF, Dollar Store Locks Up Merchandise.
• Canada Issues 2SLGBTQI+ "Travel Advisory" For The U.S., Whatever That Means.
• Pfizer To Restart Production At Damaged North Carolina Facility In Q4.
• Chicago News Crew Robbed At Gunpoint While Reporting On String Of Robberies.
• An Important Lesson From Chicago On Confronting The Enemies Of Free Speech.
• Watch: Massive Teen Hordes Swarm Two California Malls - Beatings, Gunfire, Stabbing Ensue.
• Invent Your Own Gender. Governor Gavin Newsom Encourages Youth With Millions In Taxpayer Support.
• "Gang Bosses" Led By US Risk Unleashing "Nuclear War": Kim Jong Un.
• The equity bid continued on Wednesday, once again supported by cool US economic data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Dovish data hits the dollar while stocks add to recent gains - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Are We Facing Lockdowns 2.0?
• Proposed Labor Department Rule Would Extend Overtime Pay To Millions Of Workers.
• Trend trauma - massive systematic flow.
• Hurricane Idalia Makes Landfall On Florida's Big Bend As Category 3 Storm.
• From bears to bulls to AI booms.
• Stocks & Gold Gain, Dollar Pain As 'Soft Landing' Narrative Implodes.

Wall Street Journal:

• DOJ, SEC Probe Tesla Over Glass House Project.
• The Budget Airline Betting You’ll Pay for Better Booze.
• ‘How to Serve White Victims’. Oakland, Calif., is plagued by crime—and by a district attorney, Pamela Price, determined to divide people by race.
• Biden’s Secret Emails: President robinware456. The White House won’t release emails from his pseudonym accounts. Why? 
• Visa, Mastercard Prepare to Raise Credit-Card Fees.
• How to Play the Property Meltdown in Five Charts.
• Why Your Wireless Carrier Wants to Access Your Bank Account.
• Venture Capitalist Reid Hoffman to Scale Back Investment Role at Greylock.

CNBC.com:

• Salesforce shares pop on earnings beat and optimistic forecast.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Salesforce, Okta, CrowdStrike, Five Below and more.
• Biden pledges $95 million to shore up Hawaii’s electric grid after deadly wildfires.
• Biden administration cancels $72 million in student debt for more than 2,300 borrowers.
• Op-ed: Why the world needs more oil, not less. 
• How to stop Meta from using some of your personal data to train generative AI models.

MarketWatch.com:

• Salesforce ‘very thirsty’ to be AI CRM leader, Benioff says following strong outlook, improved margins .
• CrowdStrike logs earnings beat, citing AI traction .
• Okta hikes annual earnings guidance by about a third after weakness doesn’t materialize, stock rallies more than 10%.
• Pure Storage’s stock gains 3% after revenue and earnings beat, solid guidance. 
• Why Goldman Sachs sees uptick in interest in hedge funds in new market regime.
• Is Nvidia’s stock actually cheap? One analyst makes the case.

Newsmax:

• Rep. Clyde: Amendments Would End Trump Prosecutions.
• AJC Poll: 94% See Trump Charges as 'Political'.

Fox News:

• Monster storm leaves 'severe damage' and flooding in coastal states.
• Navy vet mugged in city overpowered by crime: 'Next thing I remember I'm in the ER'.
• 'Spoiler' candidate who may threaten Biden's re-election says Dems 'beyond redemption'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Victor Reacts: California School District Forced to Pay $100,000 Fine for Secretly Transitioning a Child (VIDEO).
• “Fulton County Fumbled the Cover-Up – I’m Aware of What Transpired” – Harrison Floyd Warns Fani Willis and GA Regime He Is Coming Back at Them with the TRUTH (VIDEO).
• Fitness Influencer Larissa Borges Dies Suddenly From Double Cardiac Arrest.
• California Councilman Robbed While Speaking to Shop Owners About Crime (VIDEO).
• “Half the House Almost Collapsed!” – Joe Biden Lies AGAIN About His House Burning Down During Remarks on Maui and Hurricane Idalia (VIDEO).
• Beef Company CEO Warns of Government Attacks on Real Beef – “This Is About The Administrative Deep State…”.
• Parents File Civil Rights Lawsuit Against Michigan School District Over Bathrooms Based on ‘Gender Identity’.
• Breaking: Mitch McConnell Freezes Up Again, Press Conference Cut Short (Video).
• Indicted Trump Lawyer John Eastman Issues Warning After Arrest (VIDEO).
• CORRUPTION RUNS DEEP IN MAUI: Democrat Megadonor Sentenced in Maui County Bribery Case.
• ‘Complete Nonsense’: Americans Mobilizing to Fight Surging Wave of COVID Hysteria 2.0.
• “Your Body Count Trumps All Those” – Social Media Users ROAST Crooked Hillary Clinton After Clueless Tweet Pushing Gun Control Following UNC Shooting by Chinese National.
• Former Morgan Stanley Exec Claims He Was Fired For Being White in Lawsuit Against Firm – Was Replaced with Black Woman with “Significantly Less Experience”. 
• Arizona Firm Operated by Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma’s Brother Acquires Majority Stake in Runbeck Election Services – Company Runs Early Voting in Maricopa County.

 The Epoch Times:  

• Will $9 Trillion Worth of Losing Bets by the CCP Cause an Asian Financial Crisis 2.0?
• House Select Committee on CCP Holds Roundtable on CCP’s Threat to American Manufacturing.
• Feds Glossing Over China in Cybercrime Assessment Raises Questions, Say Experts

Twitter:

• @TheMilkBarTV - They said the quiet part out loud = DEPOPULATION. (video)
• ProdigalThe3rd - Biden’s Green New Deal wasted trillions to cripple US energy independence, while empowering China: US Trade Rep. Katherine Tai: “China’s dominant position in the world market now in [rare earths] means that it is able to turn on the faucet and turn off the faucet …we remain entirely vulnerable to that leverage.” (video)
• @CarolynRyanTV - GEORGIA BREAKING. Gov. Brian Kemp admits to a Republican voter: "If you give anybody a voting machine, they can hack it". The exchange took place today at the 8th district GOP fish fry in Perry, GA. (video)
• @Risemelbourne - Maui The Insanity Continues. Locals are finding Mysteriously Burnt out vehicles located outside the Fire Zones...Somehow, they're Burnt to a crisp, in Liquid Metal Form and are located in between 𝙐𝙉𝘽𝙐𝙍𝙉𝙏 Houses....Something Very Fishy is going on in Hawaii. (video)
• @wideawake_media - Former vice president at Pfizer, Dr. Mike Yeadon: "When the UN, and Bill Gates, and Klaus Schwab tell you that you won't be travelling, you won't have a private car, there won't be any flights, you won't own anything and you'll be happy, you probably won't live in your own house… When they tell you that, you should assume that they're serious about it." (video)
• @RxRegA - Why is CDC ending its only active safety surveillance program just as a new and largely untested version of COVID booster launches next month?
• @CNN - The FBI is investigating dozens of migrants who crossed the US southern border with help of a smuggler with ties to ISIS.
• @balancealways - US - Senate Committee State Affairs. Q: Have you ever seen any other vaccine put out to the public that has skipped the animal tests? A: No. Remember this. Always. (video)
• @MrMBrown -  Oh, good...I'm sure we have absolutely nothing to worry about here... 
• @LeadingReport - BREAKING: Out of 524,000 total votes cast in Fulton County, Ga in 2020, 374,128 ballot images went missing, 132,000 ballot signatures were destroyed and 16,000 ballot images were tampered with, according to Voter GA.
• @WeaponizedNews - We have a serious problem with jab fanatics!
• @Xx17965797N - Hawaii!! (video)
• @MJTruthUltra - Trump Statement - They’re Trying to Bring Back Covid Lockdowns - We Will Not Comply! “The left wing lunatics are trying very hard to bring back Covid lockdowns and mandates with their sudden fear-mongering about the new variants that are coming. Gee Whiz, you know what else is coming? An election. (video)
• @WallStreetApes - The Mainstream Media Is NOT SHOWING YOU The HORROR The Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii Fires Victims Went Through. Why? (video)
• @EndWokeness - Children raised in single-parent homes: Black children: 64% Hispanic children: 42% White children: 24% Asian children: 16% We have a fatherlessness crisis in this country. We don’t talk about it enough.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 979,870 Reports(+2,329 from prior week) Through August 11th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.75 -1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 78.5 +1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.95 USD/Metric Tonne +1.33%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.76 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.92 +1.44%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 33.0 -10.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.3 -.02%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%.

• S&P 500 futures +.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.